The New Canada Presented by: Dr. Darrell Bricker 2018 Darrell Bricker. All rights reserved. Contains Proprietary information and insights may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of the presenter. 1
We Don t Know Our Own Country Anymore 2
The Forces of Change Are Creating a New Canada 3
4 Let s Have Some Fun!
So, how well do you think you know your country and fellow Canadians? Let s find out 68% of Canadians enjoy quizzes 5
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region most likely to support the de-criminalization of marijuana? ATLANTIC CANADA 6
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region that hates taxes the most? QUEBEC 7
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region most religious, most believes the devil is active and most believes we ll all perish in battle of Armageddon? ATLANTIC CANADA 8
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? ATLANTIC CANADA 9
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region least likely to believe Canada would be better off if immigrants went back where they came from? ALBERTA 10
Oh Canada, eh? Percentage of Canadians who are Muslim: Average Guess: 20.2% Actual: 2% (-18.5 points) 11
12 We ve Changed
The Old Canada is giving way to the New Canada 13
The Great White North English and French very white The Old Canada More Rural focus on natural resources Big families, big households, what the kids want Values Of Elite Accommodation driven by white men in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa Eyes on the Atlantic, fear of the US. Trusting Of Public Authorities And Institutions (Peace, Order and Good Government) 14
15 POPULATION PATTERNS
EMERGING DEMOGRAPHIC FORCES Fertility/Aging Urbanization Multiculturalism 16
17 FERTILITY
Historical Age Pyramid for Canada MALE FEMALE 2011 2011 1961 1961 18
THE FERTILITY RATE DROP Fertility Rate, Canada: 1921 2011 (average number of children a woman aged 15 to 49 would have in her lifetime) 19
DECLINE EVERYWHERE 2011 Total Fertility Rate Canada 1.61 Saskatchewan 1.99 Manitoba Alberta 1.86 1.81 Quebec Prince Edward Island New Brunswick Ontario Nova Scotia Newfoundland/Labrador British Columbia 1.69 1.62 1.54 1.52 1.47 1.45 1.42 20
WORLD VS CANADA: FERTILITY RATES WORLD 1960 = 4.9 Today = 2.5 2050 = 2.3 CANADA 1960 = 3.9 Today = 1.6 2050 = 1.7 United Nations Population Estimates 21
FERTILITY IN 10 BIGGEST COUNTRIES CUT BY HALF IN LAST HALF CENTURY China 1.7 5.80 India 2.5 5.90 US 1.9 3.70 Indonesia Brazil 1.8 2.5 5.70 6.20 5.2 Avg. 1960 Pakistan Nigeria 3.7 5.7 6.60 6.40 2.5 Avg. Today Bangladesh 2.2 6.70 Russia 1.7 2.50 Japan 1.4 2.00 22
23 AGING
AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF CANADIANS 1920's 57 Now 81 2036 87 24
WORLD VS CANADA: PERCENTAGE OF SENIORS WORLD 1960 = 5% Today = 9.3% 2050 = 16% CANADA 1960 = 7.7% Today = 18.3% 2050 = 26.4% United Nations Population Estimates 25
POPULATION 65 YEARS AND OVER, BY REGION 2011 AND PROJECTED 2036 (PERCENT) CAN NL 14.4 15.8 23.7 31.0 2011 2036 PE 15.8 27.4 NS 16.5 28.6 NB 16.2 29.4 QC 15.7 25.1 ON 14.2 23.1 MB 13.9 21.4 SK 14.6 23.3 AB 10.8 21.0 BC 15.3 23.8 26
27 More Seniors Than Kids
Number of Canadians Aged 100+ 7,900 By 2061 this will climb to 78,300 the size of Victoria, B.C. 28
WORKING AGE AND DEPENDENCY FOR CANADA 1971 In 1971 there were 6.6 people of working age for each senior 6.6 PER 2012 In 2012 there are 4.2 4.2 PER 2036 Projections put the ratio at 2 to 1 in 2036 2.3 PER 29
MEDIAN NET WORTH OF CANADIAN FAMILIES $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 By Age of Family Head, 2011 (dollars) $378,300 $533,600 $460,700 $300,000 $200,000 $243,800 $182,500 $100,000 $0 $25,300 All Families Under 35 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-65 years 65+ years 30
31 URBANIZATION
OVER HALF OF WORLD LIVES IN URBAN AREAS 1960 1993 2014 2050 % of the World s population living in urban areas 32
% OF TOTAL CANADIAN POPULATION RURAL VS. URBAN POPULATION IN CANADA: 1851-2011 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Rural Population in Canada Urban Population in Canada 81 19 YEAR Note: The rural population for 1981 to 2006 refers to persons living outside centres with a population of 1,000 AND outside areas with 400 persons per square kilometre. Previous to 1981, the definitions differed slightly but consistently referred to populations outside centres of 1,000 population. Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1851 to 2006. Last modified: 33
34 34
THE BIG SHIFT: SHARE OF POPULATION BY REGION Atlantic 6.6% 10.4% Quebec 23.3% 28.9% Ontario 34.3% 38.4% Prairies 17.5% 18.4% BC 9.0% 13.3% 1961 2016 35
THE BIG SHIFT CONTINUES: POPULATION GROWTH 2011-2016 Canada 5.00 Alberta 11.60 Saskatchewan Manitoba BC 5.80 5.60 6.30 Ontario 4.60 Quebec 3.30 PEI 1.90 Newfoundland/Labrador 1.00 Nova Scotia 0.20 New Brunswick New Brunswick -0.50 36
POPULATION GROWTH FOR MAJOR CITIES Calgary 14.6% Vancouver 6.5% Toronto 6.2% Ottawa/Gatineau 5.5% Montreal Halifax 4.2% 3.3% 2011-2016 37
TEN FASTEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Regina Lethbridge 14.6% 13.9% 12.5% 11.8% 10.8% Kelowna Guelph Victoria Oshawa Winnipeg 8.4% 7.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 2011-2016 38
TEN SLOWEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS Saint John -2.2% Thunder Bay Greater Sudbury Kingston Saguenay Belleville Peterborough Trois-Rivières Windsor Halifax 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 2011-2016 39
IMMIGRATION: CANADA S SECRET WEAPON 40
AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH FOR THE G8 Canada Leads the Pack 1.0% United States 0.8% UK 0.7% Italy 0.6% Russia 0.5% France 0.4% Germany 0.1% Japan -0.1% 2011-2016 41
CHANGE IN IMMIGRATION ENTRY CLASSIFICATION EMPHASIS ON ECONOMIC IMMIGRANTS 1986 99,354 2015 271,845 Family Class 42% Economic Immigrants 36% Refugees 19% Family Class 24% Economic Immigrants 63% Other Immigrants 2% Refugees 13% 42
TOP 10 COUNTRIES OF BIRTH OF RECENT IMMIGRANTS TO CANADA 1970 NOW U.K. 26,497 Philippines 50,846 U.S. 24,424 India 39,530 West Indies (Caribbean) Italy 12,456 8,533 China Iran 19,532 11,669 Portugal 7,902 Pakistan 11,329 Greece 6,327 Syria 9,853 Yugoslavia 5,672 USA 7,522 India 5,670 France 5,807 China 5,377 UK 5,946 France 4,410 Nigeria 4,133 43
FOREIGN BORN POPULATION BY REGION 2011 (percent) Canada 20.6 ON BC 28.5 27.6 AB MB 16.1 15.7 QC 12.6 SK 6.8 NS PE NB 3.9 5.3 5.2 NL 1.8 44
9 OF 10 IMMIGRANTS LIVE IN URBAN CANADA POPULATION LIVING IN A LARGE URBAN AREA 2011 (percent) 91 69.1 Immigrants Total Canadian Population 45
FOREIGN BORN AS A % OF CITY POPULATION 49.7% 39.6% 36.5% 34.7% 31.7% 28.9% 27.9% 20.6% 19.9% 46
47 Will This Change?
United States United Kingdom Canada Australia Switzerland Germany France New Zealand Italy Spain Singapore Japan Sweden United Arab Emirates Netherlands Norway Austria Hong Kong Brazil Ireland Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 16% 15% 13% 12% 11% 22% 20% 20% Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown. 34% FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to? Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827 48
Our International Brand is a Draw 49
How The World Views Canadians: A place I d like to visit Some of most beautiful landscapes in the world Friendly Where rights & freedoms are respected Polite Educated Hard working One of the best qualities of life anywhere in the world One of the best healthcare systems in the world Care about the environment 97% 90% 86% 86% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 84% 50
How The World Views Canadians: Different than people in the U.S.A Financially well off Someone I would welcome into my house for a meal Tolerant of people of different racial/cultural backgrounds Welcoming to immigrants Cool A leader in working for peace/human rights around the world If I had a choice I would move to Canada Canadians are sexy 53% 53% 82% 81% 80% 79% 72% 70% 67% 51
The Transition to a New Canadian Mindset 52
The New Canada Urban-Suburban Multicultural Older, More Female Smaller households Increasing Generational Divide Eyes on the Pacific Tolerant, Opinionated, Demanding, Difficult We The North 53
THE NEW CANADA For You We re changing not a good thing or a bad thing, but an important thing. Growth GTA to the West especially the suburbs. Rural/small town contraction. Redefining work and retirement. Living longer and healthier. Growing share of well-derly. Emerging consumer, political force. More, smaller households. Smaller share of kids. Younger generations crushing debt, crushed dreams. Single women at both ends of age scale. Emerging economic, political force. Pacific identity, Asian tastes. 54
Redemption: So, now you get a second chance How well do you know Canada and your fellow Canadians? 55
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? ATLANTIC CANADA 56
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region that Most Supports Canada s Navy: SASKATCHEWAN 57
Oh Canada, eh? The Fastest Growing Language in Canada: TAGALOG (Philippines) 58
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region Most Likely to Believe that Aliens have Come Down From Another Planet and are Actually Walking Among Us, Disguised, Today: ALBERTA 59
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region Believe they Belong First and Foremost to the Country, and Not Their Province: ONTARIO 60
Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region most likely to have used a mobile device in the bathroom and most likely to scoop it out if it falls in? PRAIRIES 61
Oh Canada, eh? Canadian city where women are most satisfied with their love life, body image, their personal health and satisfaction overall? TORONTO Where Darrell lives 62