KINU-ASPI TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY 3 KEY OUTCOMES 4 Assessing Asia-Pacific Regional Order 6 South Korea s and Australia s Asia-Pacific Policies 8 Dr. Jin Park s Keynote Luncheon Speech 10 South Korea-Australia Security Cooperation 11 Dealing with North Korea and Achieving Korean Unification 13 Concluding Remarks 15 PARTICIPANT LIST 16
26 August 2014 SUMMARY KINU-ASPI The 2nd KINU ASPI 1.5 Track Strategic Dialogue was held in Seoul on 26 August 2014. The first strategic dialogue took place in Canberra in April 2013. It discussed strategic issues of mutual concern to South Korea and Australia and identified practical steps for both countries to address these challenges. The April 2013 dialogue was mentioned in the Joint Statement of Republic of Korea Australia Foreign and Defence Ministers' 2+2 Meeting as an example of "increased dialogue between security research institutions in both countries." In continuation of the success of the first dialogue, the 2nd KINU ASPI 1.5 Track Strategic Dialogue was held under the theme "Promoting South Korea Australia Cooperation." Government officials and experts from both countries participated in this dialogue and had an in depth and productive discussion. Topics discussed at the 2nd KINU ASPI 1.5 Track Strategic Dialogue included assessing the security order in the Asia Pacific by analysing the US China relationship as well as their respective Asia policies; South Korea's and Australia's policies toward North Korea, Japan, and China, in the context of the evolving security and economic regional order; security cooperation between South Korea and Australia; and means of addressing North Korea, including unification on the Korean Peninsula. KINU President, Jinwook Choi ASPI Deputy Director, Anthony Bergin 3
2 nd KINU-ASPI 1.5 TRACK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE KINU-ASPI KEY OUTCOMES Key discussion points included: Following the remarks at the Foreign and Defence Ministers' 2+2 Meeting, South Korea and Australia have recognised the necessity for further cooperation. As middle powers, the two countries need to jointly seek to enhance regional and global stability and prosperity. Multilateral organisations in the Asia-Pacific region have not shown noticeable progress in resolving crisis or tension, especially with regard to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. South Korea and Australia need to readjust their strategies to expand the role of multilateral organisations such as the East Asia Summit (EAS). Trilateral or quadrilateral security cooperation among South Korea, Australia, the US and Japan should be considered. Furthermore, China should be invited to attend multilateral security discussions and participate in multilateral security exercises. Both sides exchanged their opinions on Japan's right to collective self-defence and China's growing economic influence. Both sides agreed that Australia can be an effective mediator for the strained relationship between Seoul and Tokyo. Beyond traditional security cooperation, both sides agreed on the importance of building practical links to strengthen cyber security cooperation. South Korea and Australia need to hold a regular Cyber Policy Dialogue to establish cyber security standards. Dr. Anthony Bergin and Dr. Jinwook Choi Dr. Jinwook Choi, Mr. William Paterson and Dr. Anthony Bergin (Left to Right) 4
26 August 2014 South Korea and Australia expressed their desire to extend cooperation to the non-traditional sector in areas such as disaster relief, humanitarian assistance and maritime research. Australia hopes to work closely with South Korea to resolve North Korean issues while maintaining its humanitarian aid to North Korea, principally through the World Food Programme (WFP). In accordance with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, Australia will also uphold sanctions on North Korea. Australia supports the peaceful unification on the Korean Peninsula but Canberra and Seoul should discuss specific scenarios for unification. The South Korean delegation was headed by Dr. Jinwook Choi, President of KINU and included Dr. Jin Park, Executive President of Asia Future Institute and Dr. Jung-Hoon Lee, Republic of Korea Ambassador for Human Rights. The members of South Korean delegation comprised of KINU analysts, Ministry of Unification and Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials, and academics from various institutions such as Yonsei University, Sejong Institute, Ewha Woman s University, Pukyong National University, Korea National Diplomatic Academy and Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. The Australian delegation was led by Dr. Anthony Bergin, Deputy Director of ASPI, and included His Excellency William Paterson, Australian Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, and John Langtry, Assistant Secretary of Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. It also included ASPI analysts and officials from the Australian Army, the Australian Embassy and academics from KDI School. Ambassador, William Paterson 5
2 nd KINU-ASPI 1.5 TRACK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE Session 1: Assessing Asia-Pacific Regional Order Dr. Sung Chul Jung from the Korean delegation opened the dialogue by stating that the power transition between the US and China is one of the key issues shaping the future of Asia-Pacific regional order. He pointed out that security alliances with the US and territorial disputes with China are key factors influencing the foreign policies of Asia-Pacific states. Dr. Jung categorised Asia-Pacific states into four groups: core American allies, American friends, non-aligned countries and Chinese partners. Each group of states takes a different approach towards the power transition between the US and China. On the future of the Asia-Pacific region, Dr. Jung added that the US still maintains its superior military position over China. This balance of power remains even when allies and partners are considered. Dr. Benjamin Schreer from the Australian delegation analysed four models of the future security order in the Asia-Pacific: 1) continued US hegemony despite a relative decline; 2) a US-China strategic condominium; 3) power-balancing between multiple actors in a concert of powers ; and 4) power-dilution through increased multilateralism. Dr. Schreer suggested that as middle powers, South Korea and Australia needed to readjust their strategies for the emerging strategic dynamics which includes building up their capabilities, expanding defence ties with the US and/or other powers bilaterally or trilaterally, bilateral engagement with China, and multilateral regional security Dr. Sung Chul, Jung, Dr. Dongsoo Kim and Dr. Suk-Hee Han (Left to Right) 6
26 August 2014 engagement. As US allies, South Korea and Australia needed to assume greater responsibility for their own security and wider maritime security. In turn, this could provide opportunities to enhance South Korea-Australia security and defence cooperation. In the proceeding discussion, the effectiveness of multilateralism and China s economic influence were key issues. Many participants viewed regional multilateral organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) as not showing noticeable progress in resolving crises or tensions, especially territorial disputes in South China and East China Sea. Rather, it was noted that bilateral or trilateral ties are more efficient mechanisms and draw countries with similar objectives closer. However, some argued that while multilateral organisations have limitations, their influence will expand in the long term due to stronger bilateral and trilateral relations. Another main point of discussion was how to cope with China s growing economic influence on Asia-Pacific regional order. Even though some economic pressure from China exists, Australian participants rejected the dichotomy of having to choose between the US and China. On the other hand, the South Korean side considered China s increasing economic power seriously and suggested that Seoul should seek a balance between strategic competition and economic cooperation. Some participants pointed out that China s recent offer to South Korea to join the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a demonstration of China s determination to change the regional order through wielding its economic strength. Mr. Brigadier Peter Clay, Mr. John Langtry and Dr. Benjamin Schreer (Left to Right) 7
2 nd KINU-ASPI 1.5 TRACK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE Session 2: South Korea s and Australia s Asia-Pacific Policies On behalf of the South Korean delegation, Dr. Ihn-hwi Park described Northeast Asia s security environment as one in which states are vying to restructure the order to benefit their own national interests. He suggested it was in South Korea s interests to prevent clashes between the US and China and work with them to develop a coordinated policy for North Korea. Dr. Park stated that while South Korea continues to have positive relations with both the US and China, it needs to improve its relations with Japan. To address complex issues between states, President Park initiated a trust-based diplomacy, which involves cooperating on issues of soft security. There is currently a great deal of economic interdependence in the region but this interdependence does not build trust in the security realm. In line with this initiative, Dr. Park suggested that Korea-Australia cooperation be based on their shared democratic values and interests in Asia-Pacific regional stability and prosperity. On behalf of the Australian delegation, Dr. Anthony Bergin expressed that Australia has been intensifying practical security cooperation and dialogue with Asia-Pacific states, including China. According to Dr. Bergin, Australia maintains good relations with China and Japan in terms of economic and security cooperation. With regards to the expanded role of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, Dr. Bergin rejects the assertion that this is a sign of Japanese remilitarisation. Australia also rejects the assertion that it needs to choose between China and the US and denies that Australia-Japan security cooperation is based on balancing the rise of China. While Australia has few interactions with North Korea (partly due to sanctions imposed on the regime), Canberra continues to provide humanitarian assistance to the North. During the discussion one participant raised fundamental questions concerning South Korea s Asia-Pacific policy: does Seoul have a sophisticated Asia-Pacific policy and, if so, how is it linked to the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative and Eurasia Initiative. The seemingly lack of a well-developed and concrete South Korean policy towards the Asia-Pacific was highlighted in three points. First, South Korea has been relying heavily on the ROK-US alliance, restraining itself from being fully prepared to build multilateral relations. Second, South Korea s developed economy makes it one of the key players in the world and yet its political and strategic stance in the region fails to drive a strong Asia-Pacific policy. Third, North Korean challenges such as its nuclear testing and unpredictable provocations are a significant barrier to South Korea in expanding its diplomatic efforts. 8
26 August 2014 On Australia s Asia-Pacific policy, the Australian delegation argued that this was a matter of priorities. Participants generally agreed that, with three major powers located in Northeast Asia (the US, China and Japan), the region shapes Australia s policy as well. Some participants highlighted that while China s territorial ambitions challenge Australian interests, Canberra will not and cannot contain Beijing. To meet the challenge of an assertive China, it was suggested that democratic states in the region should work together to oppose China s aggressive manoeuvres in Southeast Asia. Questions were raised regarding the Australian government s decision to actively support Japan s military normalisation due to shared strategic values and interests. While Canberra does not cooperate with Beijing on security issues as much as it does with Seoul or Tokyo, this does not preclude Beijing from participating in the multilateral security architecture. Mr. William Paterson and Dr. Anthony Bergin 9
2 nd KINU-ASPI 1.5 TRACK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE Dr. Jin Park's Keynote Luncheon Speech It was an honour to host Dr. Jin Park, Executive President of Asia Future Institute. Dr. Park began his speech by stating that South Korea and Australia have conducted regular dialogues including a 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministers Dialogue to exchange views and cooperate on economics and culture. He commented that South Korea's partnership with Australia will continue to strengthen despite the geographic distance because both countries share many common grounds for further cooperation on traditional and non-traditional security issues. On China, he suggested that South Korea and Australia could each play the role of a 'tugboat' to gently pull China towards joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) regional free trade agreement. On South Korea s strained relations with Japan, he emphasised the need for Japan s sincere apology and argued that Australia could act as a mediator between the two countries to foster peace in Northeast Asia. Dr. Park praised Australia for acting with the international community in responding to North Korean provocations. He concluded his speech by expressing his hope that the G20 in Brisbane will bring positive results for the international community. Dr. Jin Park (the very left) 10
26 August 2014 Session 3: South Korea-Australia Security Cooperation Dr. Jae-Jeok Park from the Korean delegation made an insightful presentation on South Korea- Australia and Australia- Japan security cooperation. He viewed the progress made in these bilateral relationships as a possible precursor for establishing trilateral or quadrilateral security links between South Korea, Australia, Japan and the US. According to Dr. Park, trilateral or quadrilateral security cooperation could create the impression of encircling China, which would harm South Korea-China relations and allow Japan to act as the regional hub of the US-led alliance network. However, strengthening the US-led alliance network is necessary to handle traditional and non-traditional security issues. In addition, expanded security coordination could paradoxically serve as leverage over China which could pressure Beijing to work together on various issues (including North Korea). For the Australian side, Brigadier Peter Clay commented that Australia-South Korea security cooperation is on a positive trajectory. Australia wants to ensure a peaceful regional order in Asia-Pacific and foster security coordination among countries as its interests extend beyond its boundaries. He confirmed that Australia and South Korea are currently working to design a blueprint for the next 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministers Meeting. He highlighted Australia s participation in the Korean War, as well as recent military exercises on Korean soil, which reflects the high-regard Australia has for South Korea and demonstrates Canberra s willingness to enhance the relationship. Dr. Kap-sik Kim and Dr. Jae-Jeok Park 11
2 nd KINU-ASPI 1.5 TRACK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE Brigadier Clay concluded his presentation by touching on cyber security, suggesting that South Korea and Australia should work with the international community to address this challenge. Participants agreed that South Korea and Australia are well placed to enhance their cooperation. However, some questioned whether the countries strategic interests are fully aligned. Some South Korean participants raised concerns that Australia is tilted more towards addressing Japan s security concerns than South Korea s. Concerns were also expressed over Australia s support for Japan s right to collective self-defence. Australian participants acknowledged those concerns and explained that Australia currently shares more strategic interests with Japan than it does with South Korea. For instance, Canberra and Tokyo share concerns over China s aggressive tactics in the region. Australian participants hoped South Korea-Japan relations would improve as tensions between these countries limits their ability to influence and shape the region while providing space for China to fill this gap. One participant suggested that the potential for quadrilateral security cooperation (US-Australia-South Korea-Japan) would bring South Korea and Japan closer. Another participant suggested that Australia could mediate between South Korea and Japan in building the relationship. Participants shared the view that South Korea-Australia cooperation should go beyond traditional security challenges. For instance, they could work together on improving cyber security through establishing norms in cyberspace to counter cyber threats. Other fields of cooperation mentioned included oceans management, ocean surveillance, disaster relief, and countering organised crime. Dr. Kyung-ok Do and Dr. Seungsoo Hyun 12
26 August 2014 Session 4: Dealing with North Korea and Achieving Korean Unification During the final session, Dr. Hyeong-Jung Park asserted that North Korea s nuclear policy is becoming increasingly aggressive. North Korea is simultaneously investing in its nuclear weapon program and its economy, an approach known as the Byungjin line. This approach is based on the assumption that once in possession of nuclear weapons, North Korea can guarantee its national security and thus reduce conventional military expenditures, allowing it to concentrate on economic development. There are some uncertainties about North Korea s economic situation. One is that North Korea would have difficulty acquiring foreign currency in the near future, forcing Pyongyang to search and diversify its foreign sources of income. The other uncertainty is related to internal dynamics; the regime has been pressured to reform its market economy, which may cause political challenges. In spite of these challenges and uncertainties, South Korea intends to maintain humanitarian and small-scale development assistance to the North. Dr. Park finished his presentation with the observation that North Korea s provocations, along with its continued demands for the regional acknowledgement of a nuclear-weapons state, have frustrated South Korea s assistance to North Korea. One Australian government official highlighted that Australia would like to work with South Korea to address the threat posed by North Korea. Unfortunately, through restarting its nuclear facilities, North Korea has ignored President Park s call to change the course. Australia actively implements Mr. Peter Truswell, Mr. Byron Reynolds and Mr. Duncan Lockie (Left to Right) 13
2 nd KINU-ASPI 1.5 TRACK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE sanctions against the regime, both independently and through the United Nations Command. Simultaneously, Australia provides humanitarian aid to North Korea, principally through the World Food Program. He commented that, in order to prepare for Korean unification, Australia would press North Korea to abandon its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and support South Korea s efforts to address the problems of a divided peninsula. During the discussion, members of the Australian delegation raised a number of questions regarding unification. First, there was a debate regarding whether fostering the free flow of information into North Korea was in the South Korean government s interests. This included sending electronic devices such as USBs and DVDs into North Korea loaded with information on the Kim Jong-un regime as well as Western films and television programs. Some Australian participants enquired as to the current status of the North Korean economy and whether the Byungjin line approach would succeed. Citing Vietnam and China as previous cases, North Korea s economic experiment is predicted to fail without access to outside investment, which could come as a result of improved relations with South Korea and the US. 14
26 August 2014 A question was raised on North Korea-China bilateral relations and China s potentially negative reaction should North Korea conduct a fourth nuclear weapon test. Some speculated that under the new leadership of Xi Jinping, China s approach to North Korea could become more resolute. There s already evidence of a new dynamic, as Xi Jinping visited South Korea before North Korea. There were also discussions on how young South Koreans perceive unification and how the South Korean government could reduce negative sentiments regarding the cost of unification. Relevant discussions were centred on how this negative attitude affects South Korea s pursuit for unification. Concluding Remarks Both sides called for further cooperation between South Korea and Australia. As middle powers, South Korea and Australia should encourage other countries to abide by international norms and strengthen a rules-based order. Each side expressed hopes that the next 2+2 Ministerial Meeting will endorse a blueprint to enhance bilateral cooperation. Dr. Anthony Bergin and Dr. Jinwook Choi 15
2 nd KINU-ASPI 1.5 TRACK STRATEGIC DIALOGUE KINU-ASPI PARTICIPANT LIST Australian Participants 1. Ms. Una Bazdar / Second Secretary, Australian Embassy 2. Brigadier Peter Clay / Deputy Commander, Australian Army 3. Mr. Brett Dowsing / Australian Embassy 4. Mr. John Langtry / Assistant Secretary, North East Asia Branch, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 5. Mr. Duncan Lockie / Australian Embassy 6. Mr. Byron Reynolds / Australian Embassy 7. Dr. Jeffrey Robertson / Visiting Professor, Korea Development Institute School of Public Policy and Management 8. Mr. William Paterson / Australian Ambassador to Republic of Korea 9. Mr. Peter Truswell / Counsellor-Political, Australian Embassy 7. Dr. Anthony Bergin / Deputy Director, ASPI 8. Dr. Benjamin Schreer / Senior Analyst, ASPI 9. Ms. Hayley Channer / Analyst, ASPI 10. Ms. Brieana Marticorena / Visiting Fellow, ASPI 11. Mr. David Lang / Analyst, ASPI 16
26 August 2014 South Korean Participants 1. Dr. Suk-Hee Han / Professor, Yonsei University 2. Dr. Dongsoo Kim / Assistant Professor, Pukyong National University 3. Dr. Jina Kim / Associate Research Fellow, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses 4. Mr. Duk-haeng Lee / Senior Policy Cooperation Officer, Ministry of Unification 5. Dr. Ji-yong Lee / Assistant Professor, Korea National Diplomatic Academy 6. Dr. Jung-Hoon Lee / Ambassador for Human Rights, ROK 7. Dr. Sang Hyun Lee / Director, Security Strategy Program, Sejong Institute 8. Dr. Ihn-hwi Park / Professor, Ewha Woman s University 9. Dr. Jin Park / Executive President, Asia Future Institute 10. Dr. Beomchul Shin / Director General of the Policy Planning Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs 11. Dr. Jinwook Choi / President, KINU 12. Dr. Hyeong-Jung Park / Senior Research Fellow and Director of Center for North Korean Studies, KINU 13. Dr. Moon-Young Huh / Senior Research Fellow, KINU 14. Dr. Kyuryoon Kim / Senior Research Fellow, KINU 15. Dr. Young-Ho Park / Senior Research Fellow, KINU 16. Dr. Kyung-ok Do / Research Fellow, KINU 17. Dr. Seung-Soo Hyun / Research Fellow, KINU 18. Dr. Sung Chul Jung / Research Fellow, KINU 19. Dr. Kap-Sik Kim / Research Fellow, KINU 20. Dr. Jae-Jeok Park / Research Fellow, KINU 21. Dr. Young Hoon Song / Research Fellow, KINU 17