RISING GLOBAL MIGRANT POPULATION

RISING GLOBAL MIGRANT POPULATION 26 INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 60 MILLION IN THE LAST 13 YEARS and now total more than 230 million equivalent to the 5th most populous country in the world The fastest-growing period of migration was the 1980s. From 1990 to 2013, migration increased an additional 5 reaching 232 million people. Migration is expected to continue growing to reach 266 million by 2040. In general, migration numbers are underreported because national censuses do not capture temporary migration International Migrants Population (In Millions, 1960-2040) Forecast 266 221 232 154 175 77 84 102 Compounded Annual Growth Rate for every period (In %) 1960 0.9% 1970 1980 1990 2010 2013 1.9% 4. 1. 2. 1.6% 0.5% 2040 Country Equivalent Ranking in terms of Population 7 th 8 th 8 th 5 th 5 th 5 th 5 th 6 th Sources: United Nations Population Division; Examining the Role of International Migration in Global Population Projections, Abel, K.C, et. al., 2014 Looking Ahead 167

MOST MIGRANTS COME FROM THE WORKING AGE POPULATION, with female migrants representing 4 and the brain drain being highest in Africa Three-quarters of global migrants are within the working age, signaling that their primary reason for migrating is for income and job purposes. The median age of migrants in the North (developed world) is 42 years, versus 33 in the South, according to the International Organization for Migration. The difference is partly explained by the fact that migrants coming from the South to the North enjoy higher living standards and are thus likely to stay longer. The brain drain is most pronounced in Africa, where the percentage of skilled emigrants as a share of all emigrants is almost 10% Migrants by Age, Gender and Skills (In %, 2013 and 2010/11) Migrants by Regions Africa Asia Latin America & The Caribbean North America 0-9 13.6 3.7 9.5 12.9 2.9 6.0 10-14 7.6 3.0 4.9 6.3 2.7 3.4 Age 15-29 30-39 29.0 19.4 11.1 22.5 26.3 23.2 14.0 18.7 11.2 23.3 10.2 19.4 40-49 14.1 20.9 15.0 16.1 22.8 20.2 50-64 12.4 23.4 12.8 18.9 23.8 24.7 65+ 3.8 15.4 8.3 13.2 13.3 16.1 Male 54 Female 46 48 52 58 42 48 52 49 51 50 50 Gender Skills as Measure by the Emigration Rate of the Highly Educated (In %, 2010/2011) 10.8 5.3 7.4 4.8 3.3 0.8 Source- Upper and Middle Charts: United Nations Population Division Source- Lower Chart: World Migration in Figures, OECD-UNDESA, Oct. 2013 168 Looking Ahead

DESPITE REPRESENTING JT 5% OF THE WORLD S POPULATION, NORTH AMERICA HOSTS 2 OF GLOBAL IMMIGRANTS while India is the largest source of emigrants The distribution of immigrants and emigrants around the world does not reflect the global distribution of population. Latin America is host to 9% of the world population but produces 16% of the world s migrants. India, Mexico and Russia are the biggest sources of migrants. Russia is also the second largest recipient of migrants, attracting many people from former Soviet Union countries. The is the top destination in the world Immigrants and Emigrants Distribution by Region (In % of Total, 2013) Emigrants by Region World Population by Region Immigrants by Region Asia 40% Asia 60% Asia 3 25% 3 16% LAC(1) Africa 1 NA Other Africa 16% LAC 9% 10% NA 5% NA 2 Africa LAC Countries with Highest Number of Emigrants (In Million, 2013) Countries with Highest Number of Immigrants (In Million, 2013) Rank Rank India 14.2 1 45.8 1 Mexico 13.2 2 Russia 11.0 2 Russia 10.8 3 9.8 3 China 9.3 4 Saudi Arabia 9.1 4 Bangladesh 7.8 5 UAE 7.8 5 Pakistan 5.7 6 UK 7.8 6 Ukraine 5.6 7 France 7.4 7 Philippines 5.5 8 Canada 7.3 8 UK 5.2 9 Australia 6.5 9 Afghanistan 5.1 10 Spain 6.5 10 Note: (1) Latin America and the Caribbean Source- Upper Charts: International Migration Report, United Nations, 2013 Source- Lower Charts: United Nations Population Division Looking Ahead 169

THE SOUTH-SOUTH AND SOUTH-NORTH CORRIDORS ARE THE TWO MAJOR CHANNELS FOR MIGRANT MOVEMENT with the Mexico- corridor being the largest globally In 2013, the number of international migrants born in the South who live in the North reached ~81 million. The South-South Migration corridor has become the largest one. Some OECD research shows that large South-South migration has different dynamics where host countries generally find it hard to integrate immigrants into society (as opposed to a generally more ethnically homogeneous North). Overall, the represents the key destination for major migrant corridors with Mexico- being the largest Migration Corridors (In Million, 1990, and 2013) 10 30 50 70 90 1990 13 39 42 58 11 45 56 58 2013 14 53 81 81 North-South North-North South-North South-South Top Pathways by Corridor (In Million, Latest Available Data) South to North North to North South to South North to South Mexico Ukraine Russia Mexico 12.2 1.3 3.7 0.6 Turkey UK Australia Russia Ukraine Turkey 2.8 1.1 3.5 0.3 China Canada Bangladesh India South Africa 2.0 1.0 3.2 0.3 # Total Migrants (In Million) Source- Upper Chart: International Migration Report, United Nations, 2013 Source- Lower Chart: World Migration Report, International Organization for Migration, 2013 170 Looking Ahead

LABOR MIGRATION INTO OECD COUNTRIES HAS DECLINED, with migrants suffering from higher unemployment rates and arriving mostly from Labor immigration has been utilized in many OECD countries (and in in particular) as a way to mitigate the ageing population problem. While this has helped in the short run, in the long run an overreliance on these policies will likely be problematic. Moreover, the data shows that foreign-born workers fare much less favorably in labor markets and face much higher unemployment rates than native born workers Permanent Immigration in OECD Countries for Work (In Thousand, 2007-2012) EU-27 Unemployment Rate across Migrants and Native-Born (In %, 2007-2012) 738 725 684 680 630 555 11 11 15 8 15 9 14 9 16 10 7 7 s 65+ as % of total population 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 17. 17. 17.5% 17.6% 17. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Foreign-born Native-born Immigrants Labor Force by Place of Birth and Country of Residence (In Million, Latest Available Data) Africa 3.6 207.4 Asia (130.9) Turkey (25.5) North America 71.3 Japan (63.0) Mexico (33.2) 8.3 (36.5) Spain (15.0) UK (26.6) Canada (14.7) Italy (21.0) France (23.1) 43.6 125.8 South America and the Caribbean Top 10 OECD Destinations Sources- Upper Charts: International Migration Outlook, OECD, 2014; EuroStat Source- Lower Chart: OECD Indicators Looking Ahead 171

PEOPLE ALSO MOVE FOR EDUCATION ATTAINMENT, WITH FOREIGN STUDENTS MORE THAN DOUBLING SINCE ; China is the major source of students and the and are the major destinations The number of students enrolled outside their country of citizenship has reached ~ 5 million, with 75% enrolled in an OECD country. The largest number of students have been coming from China and India. This explains why these two countries will be the main sources of skilled labor (among the G-20 countries) by 2025 Foreign Students Enrolled in Tertiary Education, by Region of Destination (In Number and In % of Total, -2012) 2,087,702 6% 5% 16% 2 45% 2,444,223 15% 2 4 2,843,695 15% 25% 46% 3,069,790 16% 2 4 3,519,730 1 2 45% 4,528,044 1 2 4 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 Latin America & the Caribbean Africa Asia North America Top Origin Countries of International Students (In Thousand, Latest Available Year) Top Destination Countries for International Students (In Thousand, Latest Available Year) UK France Australia Russia 694 190 271 250 207 174 124 118 63 63 428 China India South Korea Saudi Arabia France 740 Source- Upper Chart: Education at a Glance, OECD, 2014 Source- Lower Charts: UNESCO 172 Looking Ahead

MIGRANTS SEEKING REFUGE OR THOSE INTERNALLY DISPLACED HAVE MORE THAN DOUBLED SINCE, driven mostly by rising conflict Refugees, asylum seekers and internally displaced people have increased about 6% a year since. The growth in the incidence of forced migration is mostly a result of persecution, conflict, generalized violence, or human rights violations. The number of IDPs and refugees has been highest in Syria with a large number leaving to the neighboring countries of Lebanon and Jordan. Some initial estimates show that 3.8 million Syrian refugee and IDP children are without schooling. Pakistan tops the list of refugee destinations, hosting more than 1.6 million, mostly from neighboring Afghanistan Refugees, Internally Displaced and Asylum Seekers over Time (In Million and In % of Total -2013) 20 5% 6% 60% 30% 19 5% 6 2 20 16 5% 1 6% 5 2 60% 26% 19 20 5% 16% 20% 5 29% 4 3 32 2 3 40% 32 1 36% 4 34 25% 30% 4 36 26% 29% 4 34 2 3 4 35 2 29% 4 36 19% 29% 49% 43 1 2 56% Other Asylum Seekers Refugees Internally Displaced 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Top Countries of Origin of Refugees, Asylum Seekers and Internally Displaced (In Million, 2014) Top Destination Countries for Refugees and Asylum Seekers (In Million, 2014) Internally Displaced Refugees & Asylum Seekers Pakistan 1 Syria 1.62 6.5 2 3.08 1.5 0.7 Afghanistan 2 2.77 0.85 1.12 Lebanon 9% 1.1 Somalia 9% 1.12 0.04 0.81 0.98 Iran 2.1 Sudan 5% 0.70 0.01 059 0.89 Turkey 2.6 Democratic Republic of Congo 0.57 0.06 0.59 0.75 Jordan 6% 1.9 Iraq 0.48 # Refugees and Asylum Seekers (In Million) 0.04 % 0.02 Share of Total Refugees and Asylum Seekers (In %) 0.46 Source- Upper and Lower Charts: Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Looking Ahead 173

WITH RISING CONFLICTS, THE NUMBER OF ASYLUM SEEKERS LOOKING FOR REFUGE IN EUROPE HAS RISEN SHARPLY but so has the number of deaths of migrants crossing the Mediterranean In 2014, asylum applications to rich countries reached their highest level in more than 20 years, with some 866,000 applications lodged, a 45% increase from the previous year, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The main destination for asylum seekers has been ; the biggest refugee sources have been Africa and the Middle East. This has turned the Mediterranean Sea into an essential conduit for many people seeking to escape from conflict or human rights abuses. However, the number of deaths of migrants crossing the Mediterranean rose about tenfold in the first few months of 2015 versus the same period in 2014, raising major humanitarian concerns Region in Which Migrant Death Occurred over Time (In % of Total Migrant Deaths, 2014 and Jan-Apr 2015) 70% 79% 1 5% Mediterranean North America East Africa & Horn of Africa Bay of Bengal Southeast Asia Caribbean Sahara Other 2014 Jan-Apr 2015 Origin of Migrants Who Died in Mediterranean (In 2014 and Jan-Apr 2015) Main Mediterranean Migration Routes Western Other and Unknown 4 1 Central Eastern Marseille Horn of Africa 1 Bodrum MENA 19% 86% Ceuta Melilla Algiers Sousse MALTA Athens Sub-Saharan Africa 2 2014 Jan-Apr 2015 Tripoli Benghazi Alexandria Source- Upper Chart: International Organization of Migration Sources- Lower Charts: International Organization of Migration; The Economist 174 Looking Ahead

MIGRANTS REMITTANCES TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL APPROACH $ 600 BILLION IN 2015; transfer costs remain an issue, especially in Africa Global remittances in 2014 were more than double the level of official development assistance. Least Developed Countries receive more remittances than FDI. The cost of sending remittances is declining across all regions but remains very high in Africa. The World Bank has estimated that as much as $ 100 Billion in migrant savings could be created annually if developing countries reduced their remittance transfer costs Remittances, FDI to Developing Countries and Net ODA (In $ Billion, 1990-2017) Remittances, FDI and Net ODA to Least Developed Countries (In $ Billion, 1990-2014) Forecast 800 700 600 500 400 FDI Remittances 50 45 40 35 30 25 Net ODA Remittances FDI 300 20 200 100 Net ODA 15 10 5 0 1990 2010 2015 2017 0 1990 2010 Average Total Cost by Region (In % of $ 200 Transfer, 2009-2015) 13.1 12.8 12.2 1 Forecast 6.7 10.5 8.7 7.3 7.6 9.7 6.8 6.6 5 6.8 1 9.0 6% 7.8 10% 7.2 10.2 6.1 8.1 6.1 6.0 2009 2011 2013 2015 Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia East Asia and Pacific Latin America and Caribbean South Asia #% Share of Migrant Population Sources- Upper Charts: World Development Indicators; World Bank Development Prospects Group Sources- Lower Chart: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank, Mar. 2015; United Nations Population Division Looking Ahead 175