SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SASKATCHEWAN Prepared for the: Saskatchewan Libraries Conference May 8, 2015 Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H1 306-522-5515 sasktrends@sasktel.net www.sasktrends.ca
OUTLINE Demographic Trends Births and Deaths International and Interprovincial Migration Regional differences Age Distribution Diversity Members of a Visible Minority Group Aboriginal People Recent Immigrants May 8, 2015 2
DATA SOURCES AND NOTES The material was prepared by Doug Elliott from QED Information Systems Inc., a Regina based consulting firm and the publisher of Sask Trends Monitor. Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada but the estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor. The data are current as of May, 2015. Some figures may be revised slightly in future months. May 8, 2015 3
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
NOTES There are three interrelated factors that determine the size of the provincial population. The natural growth rate is the number of births less the number of deaths. The direct movement to or from other countries is called, respectively, emigration or immigration. The migration to or from other provinces is called interprovincial migration. These factors affect the age distribution of the population as well as the absolute size and they are related in complex ways. For example, migration tends to occur among young adults which, in turn, affects the number of births. As another example, mortality rates are affected by the extent to which older people move to other provinces when they retire. Most demographic data are published on a census year basis which runs from July 1 to June 30 of the following year. May 8, 2015 5
BIRTHS AND DEATHS (NATURAL GROWTH) 18 16 thousands Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in Saskatchewan,1995-96 to 2013-14 In this figure, the number of births is in blue and the number of deaths in red. The difference between them (i.e. natural growth) is represented by the yellow bars. 14 12 10 8 Births Deaths There was a decline in the number of births during the late 1990s that was caused by lower fertility rates compounded by a drop in the number of women in the childbearing age group. Recent increases are the result of a) more young women in the province and b) a slight increase in fertility rates. 6 4 2 0 1995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 Natural Increase 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 The slow but steady increase in the number of deaths is occurring because lower mortality rates are offset by an increasing number of people in older age groups. Outmigration of seniors is also a factor. Natural growth adding 5,000 to 6,000 persons per year to the population. July to June May 8, 2015 6
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 International Immigration to Saskatchewan, 1999-2000 to 2013-2014 estimate thousands These counts cover only landed immigrants those who are entitled to live in Canada as long as they wish. Temporary foreign residents are not included. Immigration has increased exponentially because of the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP). The number of immigrants is still small, however, compared with other provinces. The number of people who permanently emigrate to other countries is difficult to measure but is thought to be small. 3 2 1 0 1995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 Retention of international immigrants has been a problem in the past. How many of these newer immigrants will stay in Saskatchewan is an open question. July to June May 8, 2015 7
POPULATION OF NON-PERMANENT RESIDENTS 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Non-Permanent Residents in Saskatchewan thousands Note that this is a total count, not the annual flow shown in the previous graphs. Non-permanent residents are those who are temporarily living in Canada including: refugees; foreign students; and temporary foreign workers. These 18,000 persons are not included in the flows of landed immigrants shown on the previous page. Non-permanent residents used to be almost exclusively refugees or persons with student visas but the number has increased dramatically because of the number of temporary foreign workers. 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 as of July: May 8, 2015 8
INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION 30 25 20 15 10 5 thousands Interprovincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan 1995-96 to 2013-2014 (estimate) Outgoing Incoming Interprovincial in-migration is the blue line and interprovincial outmigration the red line in this figure. The difference between the two (that is, net interprovincial migration) is represented by the yellow bars. Interprovincial migration has been and probably will continue to be the main determining factor for the overall size of Saskatchewan population. The majority of both in-migration and out-migration is from/to Alberta. 0 (5) Net Flow The number of persons leaving Saskatchewan is increasing again after the drop in the mid 2000s. Out-migration of recent immigrants may be the reason. (10) 1995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 July to June May 8, 2015 9
TOTAL POPULATION 1,160 1,140 thousands Total Provincial Population The net effect of all the population flows was, from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s, a downward trend in the provincial population. 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060 The reversal in interprovincial migration together with the increase in immigration has added 130,000 persons to the province since 2006. 1,040 1,020 1,000 The average annual growth rate of 1.7% in the past five years is the highest it has been since the 1970s. 980 960 940 920 900 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 as of July: May 8, 2015 10
POPULATION TRENDS IN URBAN AREAS Average Annual Population Growth, 2006 to 2011, Saskatchewan Saskatchewan 1.3% These figures cover the population in both the cities and in the surrounding bedroom communities (e.g. Lumsden, Martensville). Rural and smaller urban Moose Jaw CA Yorkton CA Prince Albert CA Swift Current CA North Battleford CA 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% The bulk of the population growth from 2006 to 2011 has happened in these nine major urban centres. The suspicion is that the same trend occurred after 2011. In spite of the higher growth rates in larger urban centres, the population in rural areas and smaller centres (excluding the North) still represents 35% of the provincial population. Regina CMA 1.5% Estevan CA 1.8% Saskatoon CMA 2.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% May 8, 2015 11
AGE DISTRIBUTIONS David Foote in his Boom, Bust, and Echo book has famously said that age is 80% of everything.
AGE STRUCTURE OF THE SASKATCHEWAN POPULATION The baby boom generation is now concentrated in their fifties although the oldest are 66 years of age. (There is some debate about the exact starting and stopping ages.) The peak of the echo generation is now among those in their early 20s. The size of the echo generation in Saskatchewan is above-average because Aboriginal people and recent immigrants tend to be in this age group. The increase in the number of births noted earlier is mainly the result of the increase in the population of family formation age group, that is, 20 to 34 years of age. These infants will eventually become the echo of the echo generation. May 8, 2015 13
SASKATCHEWAN POPULATION BY INDIVIDUAL AGE, 2014 20 18 thousands Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, as of July 2014 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Gen Z Born after 2004 Generation Y the Millenials Born 1985 to 2004 Bust or Gen X Born 1965 to 1984 Baby Boomers Born 1946 to 1964 0 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 age as of July 2014 May 8, 2015 14
AGE GROUPS FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS Age Distribution for Recent Immigrants, Saskatchewan, 2011 Immigrants fall into distinctly different age groups. Under 15 15 to 24 14% 25% Almost one half (47%) of recent immigrants are in the 25 to 44 age group because this is the mobile age group and because the immigrant nominee program targets younger workers. 25 to 34 24% 35 to 44 23% 45 to 54 10% 55 to 64 65 and older 1% 2% Saskatchewan Total Recent Immigrants (after 2006) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% % of population May 8, 2015 15
AGE GROUPS FOR THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION Under 15 Age Distribution, Saskatchewan, 2011 34% Aboriginal people in Saskatchewan are much younger, on average, than non-aboriginal people. 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 11% 13% 20% For example, one in three (34%) is under 15 years of age compared with the provincial average of 19%. Looked at another way, 27% of Saskatchewan residents under 15 years of age are Aboriginal. 45 to 54 11% Saskatchewan Total 55 to 64 6% Aboriginal 65 to 74 3% 75 and older 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% % of population May 8, 2015 16
DIVERSITY MEASURES These data are from the National Household Survey (NHS) which is the name given by Statistics Canada to the voluntary part of the 2011 Census. There is some concern about the quality of NHS data because of the voluntary nature of the survey.
RESIDENCE FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS Saskatoon Population Born Outside of Canada by Period of Immigration, Saskatchewan, 2011 12.1% These figures cover the population in both the cities and in the surrounding bedroom communities (e.g. Lumsden, Martensville). Regina Swift Current North Battleford 7.2% 8.4% 11.6% In 2011, 92.4% of Saskatchewan residents were born in Canada. The number of immigrants in general and recent immigrants in particular is higher in the larger urban centres. Estevan 6.2% These percentages will have increased since 2011. Moose Jaw Prince Albert 6.0% 4.8% 2006 or later (including nonpermanent residents) Yorkton 4.5% Before 2006 Rest of Saskatchewan 3.4% Total 7.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% May 8, 2015 18
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS Country of Origin for Recent Immigrants (after 2006), Saskatchewan, 2011 Philippines China 1,755 10,090 Among the 26, 925 Saskatchewan residents who came to Canada after 2006, almost one-half were from the Philippines. India Ukraine United Kingdom Pakistan USA Burma (Myanmar) South Korea Viet Nam Iraq Russia Colombia 1,415 1,085 1,050 800 700 635 560 430 425 400 385 All others 7,195 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 May 8, 2015 19
MEMBERS OF A VISIBLE MINORITY GROUP Members of a Visible Minority Group as Percentage of the Population, Saskatchewan, 2011 Saskatoon 11.2% These figures cover the population in both the cities and in the surrounding bedroom communities (e.g. Lumsden, Martensville). Regina Swift Current North Battleford Moose Jaw Estevan 5.0% 4.6% 4.2% 6.2% 10.6% Members of a visible minority group self-identify on the NHS. Recent immigrants and members of a visible minority group are much more common in urban centres than in rural Saskatchewan. This is particularly true for Regina and Saskatoon. Yorkton 2.9% Prince Albert 2.9% Rest of Saskatchewan Total 1.7% 6.3% Note that Aboriginal people are not considered as members of a visible minority group. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 May 8, 2015 20
ABORIGINAL IDENTITY Aboriginal Identity Population as Percentage of the Total Population, Saskatchewan, 2011 Prince Albert 38.5% These figures cover the population in both the cities and in the surrounding bedroom communities (e.g. Lumsden, Martensville). North Battleford Yorkton Regina 10.0% 9.5% 22.2% The Aboriginal identity population includes Treaty or Registered Indians, members of a First Nation, and those who selfidentify as Aboriginal. Saskatoon Estevan Moose Jaw Swift Current Rest of Saskatchewan 9.3% 5.0% 4.2% 2.8% 22.2% Métis and Other First Nations The Aboriginal population is much more common in Prince Albert and North Battleford than in the major urban centres in southern Saskatchewan. The Rest of Saskatchewan category has a relatively high proportion of people reporting a First Nations identity because it includes Reserves and the Far North. Total 15.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% May 8, 2015 21
LANGUAGE Selected Language Measures, Saskatchewan, 2011 There are three language measures in the census/nhs. Mother tonuge is not English 14.3% A high proportion of Saskatchewan residents have a mother tongue other than English but almost everyone can understand English or French. Home language is not English 6.5% The mother tongue is the language first learned as a child and still understood. For 14% of Saskatchewan residents, their mother tongue is not English. The home language is the language spoken most often at home - 93% of Saskatchewan residents report English. Cannot understand English 0.6% The knowledge of official languages measures how many individuals can write or carry on a conversation in English or French. More than 99% of Saskatchewan residents can understand English. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% May 8, 2015 22
SUMMARY OF DIVERSITY MEASURES Selected Diversity Measures, Saskatchewan, 2011 There is a great deal of overlap among these categories but it is clear that Saskatchewan is becoming more diversified. Recent (since 2006) immigrant 3.5% Member of a visible minority group 6.3% Home language is not English 6.5% Aboriginal identity 15.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% % of population May 8, 2015 23
SUMMARY The population of the province is growing more quickly than it has for decades. The three factors affecting population growth i) interprovincial migration, ii) international migration and iii) the natural growth rate are all contributing to the population growth. The majority (but not all) of the population growth is in the major urban centres. The baby boom peak in the population is in the 49 to 67 age group. The echo generation is in the family formation age group. Recent immigrants and the Aboriginal population are much younger, on average, than the non-aboriginal, non-immigrant population. The population is becoming more diverse with a higher proportion of residents being recent immigrants, members of a visible minority group, or reporting an Aboriginal identity. May 8, 2015 24