America in the Age of Trump Dr. Markus Hünemörder, LMU München you can download this presentation at www.amerikahaus.de/usaupdate
How Did It Happen? Trump s Presidential Victory in 2016 2
Trump s Controversial Campaign while running for president, Trump deliberately broke the rules and challenged the political consensus political style based on provocation rhetorical transgressions: insults, racism, sexism, contradictions populism: attacks on both parties and the entire political system prejudice: attacks on Mexican immigrants and Muslims nationalism: attacks on free trade and US support for military allies Donald Trump is the most controversial president in recent history. 3
3 a.m. / 100 Days in Office The Simpsons, 2016-17 In two video clips, the Simpsons made fun of Trump s hair. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t LSy8Tl2bjs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= Qo3fT0xPeHs 4
The Presidential Election of 2016 both Trump and Clinton were deeply unpopular candidates for many voters, a choice for lesser evil Trump won the presidency 306 to 232 in the electoral college Clinton had almost 3 million more popular votes, mostly from California Trump won due to narrow victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin Democratic states in the last six elections economically troubled rust belt region Trump did much better well among older, white, working-class voters than most Republicans deep division in American society Trump won white, rural, traditional, religious America Clinton won the multi-ethnic, urban, modern, secular America Trump carried much of the Rust Belt, traditionally Democratic states. 232 (48%) 306 (46%) 5
Trump s America 6
Clinton s America 7
The Bubble Saturday Night Live, 2016 SNL pokes fun at the shock and disbelief of liberal voters and their arrogance to believe a Trump victory unthinkable. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n fl6ahi9jjc 8
The Trouble With Trump The Politics of the Trump Administration 9
The Revolving-Door White House Trump changes key personnel often national security advisor, communications director (twice!), chief of staff, secretary of health dramatic rise and fall of Steve Bannon frequent changes are due to: Trump s personality power struggle between normal Republicans and radical populists Steve Bannon was the principal architect of Trump s right-wing nationalist, populist campaign. His influence is now gone. 10
Trump s War with the News Media (and Reality) Trump frequently attacks the news media, sometimes even Fox enemies of the people fake news : any news that s bad for Trump alternative facts : statements that supports Trump, regardless of truth strong reliance on Twitter ideal for Trump s rhetorical style Trump loves to use Twitter as a means of reaching out to his supporters directly. 11
Andy Serkis Becomes Gollum To Read Trump's Tweets The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, 2017 Motion capturing and voice actor Andy Serkis reprises his role as Gollum to read one of Trump s tweets complaining about the fake news media. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6 4mWOoj68qo 12
Trump and the Border Wall anti-immigration rhetoric is at the core of Trump s politics denounced Mexican immigrants as rapists and drug dealers called for a US-Mexican border wall and complete deportation of illegal immigrants complained about immigrants from sh**hole countries new rules for faster deportations of illegal immigrants but no mass deportations yet problems with a border wall 3,145km long, only 1,000 km fences exist would cost $20+ billion would probably be ineffective Texas This is the westernmost part of the border near San Diego. 13
Donald Trump's First 100 Days In Office The Simpsons, 2017 Marge is shocked at Trump s behavior as president, Homer wants to give more time. But it s Grandpa Simpson who s in real trouble. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= Qo3fT0xPeHs 14
Trump, Congress, and the Dreamers dreamers : young illegal immigrants who came to the US as children in 2014, Obama s DACA program allowed dreamers to get a temporary guarantee that they won t be deported to get a temporary work permit Trump cancelled DACA, but called on Congress to protect dreamers Trump wants funding for border wall in exchange Democrats want dreamer legalization but no wall funding at the center of recent budget negotiations, government shutdown The ca. 700.000 dreamers protected by DACA may face a rude awakening. 15
Trump Prepares Saturday Night Live, 2016 Alec Baldwin impersonates Donald Trump as his unrealistic campaign promises start to catch up with him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= DDuf1SPH0wA 16
Race Relations and Donald Trump Donald Trump s presidency has not improved race relations law and order slogan during campaign sides with police departments over controversial shootings did not clearly renounce white supremacist protests and violence Charlottesville, Virginia said protesting NFL football players should be fired Trump does not hesitate to appeal to racist sentiment if it serves him 17 The Unite the Right march in Charlottesville included Neo- Nazis, Ku Klux Klan, neo-confederates and the alt-right. Trump claimed there were some very fine people among them.
Trump and Environmental Policy Trump s administration has been successful in dismantling environmental regulations in line with Republican priorities Trump decided to withdraw US from Paris climate accords Obama s Clean Energy Plan cancelled EPA director Scott Pruitt is a climate change denier and spent most of his career fighting the EPA plans to allow drilling for oil in ecologically sensitive areas Critics accuse director Scott Pruitt of turning the Environmental Protection Agency into the Environment Plundering Agency 18
A House Divided Trump, Congress, and the Parties 19
Trump and the Congressional Republicans Trump is not a normal Republican major conflicts with key senators little significant legislation and policy has been enacted due to internal Republican division only major achievement: tax reform lower taxes for corporations and the wealthy normal Republican policy none of Trump s special priorities have become law so far border wall, immigration reduction, protectionism, domestic infrastructure Republican party is split into pro-trump populists, anti-trump establishment Trumpism without Trump is not very successful Paul Ryan (Speaker of the House), Trump, and Mitch McConnell (Senate Majority Leader) 20
Year of Republican Control Saturday Night Live, 2018 SNL pokes fun at the Republican party s lack of accomplishments. 21
The Sad State of the Democratic Party Democrats are more powerless than ever no presidency no congressional majority in either chamber only 16 governors and very few states under full Dem. control internal division moderate vs. progressive red state vs. blue state lack of young, diverse, well-known personnel 2016 candidates, congressional leaders old and white fewer prominent women than expected Republicans have more diverse stars right now, mostly senators are discussed as presidential candidates -> political posturing Oprah Winfrey for President? Seriously? 22
The Democrats and the Midterm Elections Democrats hope for a victory in 2018 congressional elections unpopular president historical pattern however, very steep challenges few Republican Senate seats up for election, almost all very tough gerrymandering in the House conflicts within the Democratic party senators in Republican states cannot afford to be too progressive potential presidential candidates cannot be too moderate unclear strategy, defeat in recent shutdown midterm results will greatly affect Trump s standing among Republicans chances for Democratic presidential hopefuls Only 8 Republican Senate seats are at stake in 2018, only one in a state that Clinton won in 2016. 23
Trump, Putin, and Kim Walk into a Bar Issues in Foreign Policy 24
Trump and Foreign Policy Trump s foreign policy is more conventional than expected surprise after isolationist campaign rhetoric limited involvement in Syria and Iraq no major new anti-terrorism initiatives despite secret plan against ISIS moderate expansion of troops in Afghanistan mixture of threats, sanctions, and diplomacy regarding North Korea exceptions: threat to cancel Iran nuclear deal recognition of Jerusalem as Israel s capital much of Trump s foreign policy seems shaped by defense secretary Mattis While Trump has certainly disrupted international diplomacy, his impact is less radical than critics feared. 25
Trump Prepares Saturday Night Live, 2016 Actor Alec Baldwin impersonates Donald Trump. He meets with a general to discuss strategy against the terrorist organization ISIS (known in Germany as Islamic Stats IS). In his campaign, Trump claimed to have a secret plan to destroy ISIS. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= DDuf1SPH0wA 26
A Transatlantic Divide Trump has caused a great deal of frustration among European Union leaders on trade effective death of TTIP negotiations on security constant complaints about NATO demands higher European defense expenditures threats to cancel the Iran nuclear deal on global warming decision to pull out of Paris climate accord on European integration support for Brexit and anti-eu populists US leadership is increasingly questioned in the EU 27 calls for greater European independence Some Trump critics feel that Angela Merkel, not Trump, is now the leader of the free world. Merkel has rejected that claim.
Trump and Russia during campaign, Trump praised Putin as a strong leader it seemed Trump would seek a closer relationship with Russia Ukraine and Syria for anti-terrorism support deal? strong criticism from both Democrats and Republicans pro-russia turn is apparently not happening partly because it would look bad, see Russia investigations no change of US policy on Ukraine, no major change on Syria continuation of sanctions on Ukraine and election campaign manipulation Critics claim that Russia helped Trump win the election in order to gain an easily manipulated ally in the White House. 28
Trump in Trouble The Russia Investigation and Other Problems 29
The Russia Investigation Russian hackers manipulated 2016 campaign (not election) against Clinton big question: did Trump s campaign team know or collaborate? did Trump fire FBI director James Comey to stop investigation? investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller is stirring up Washington impeachment-level revelations seem unlikely however, Trump is upset continuous damage to his presidency Trump plays down the importance of the Russia investigations, but is really upset about them. 30
Donald Trump Christmas Saturday Night Live, 2016 On Christmas Day, Donald and Melania get a surprise visit from Vladimir Putin. Note: The Manchurian Candidate is a classic American movie about a US politician who is a Communist sleeper agent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l afrzaf1h_q 31
Diminishing Support Trump s approval ratings have dropped to ca. 38% as bad as Bush or Obama after many years in office key elections losses in Virginia and Alabama hard core of support among ca. 20% of voters (Trump s base ) enough to put pressure on Republicans the real test will come with the congressional elections in November discussions about Trump s physical and mental health positive recent medical report US history of lies about president s health All the criticism from US institutions and foreign countries only makes Trump more credible to his supporters. 32
Donald Trump s Health Saturday Night Live, 2018 This is SNL s spoof of Trump s recent health report. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= Ux2agUeiVxU 33
Trump s Impact on the United States Trump s power is severely limited by checks and balances the rule of law political manners and willingness to compromise continue to worsen political division and gridlock in the US US leadership in the world declines but a multipolar world may be less stable than a hegemonic one premature end of Trump presidency seems unlikely Trump s election shook up the US and the world. His actual impact is more limited, but still problematic. 34
you can download this presentation at www.amerikahaus.de/usaupdate 35