Nvember 11, 2014 Prtecting Access t Reprductive Health Care and Abrtin As An Electral Pririty New NARAL Pr-Chice America and Planned Parenthd Actin Fund Pll Results T: Interested Parties Frm: Greenberg Quinlan Rsner Research While the cntinuing ecnmic struggles f every day Americans played a central rle in the 2014 electin, prtecting wmen s access t health care and abrtin played an imprtant part as well. A new NARAL Pr-Chice America and Planned Parenthd Actin Fund survey in fur key Senate battlegrund states demnstrates that vters supprt wmen s reprductive health, want t supprt candidates wh d as well, and will vte n the issue. There is n evidence t supprt the cntentin that a fcus n the war n wmen cst Demcrats their electins. Key findings include: Access t wmen s health care was ne f several issues frming the cre critique f anti-chice Republican candidates. Fr many vters, including key blcs f Independents and mderate vters, ppsitin t access t wmen s health care can be an immediate disqualifier f Republican candidates. Overall, the charge that a candidate ppses a wman's right t a safe, legal abrtin in all circumstances, including rape, incest, and when the health f the wman is in danger was the mst persuasive reasn t vte against him r her. Indeed, many f the Republican candidates in these Senate battlegrund states made an effrt t mderate their psitins n abrtin and access t birth cntrl t cme mre in line with mainstream views. Demcratic candidates had a greater advantage n the issues f wmen s health care than n any ther issue in the campaign. By a 57-pint margin, vters in these states believed the Demcratic candidate wuld d a better jb prtecting wmen's access t safe, legal abrtin and give the Demcrat a 32-pint advantage n prtecting WORLD HEADQUARTERS 10 G Street, NE, Suite 500 Washingtn, DC 20002 NEW YORK 54 W 40 th Street New Yrk, NY 10018 EUROPE 22 Blmsbury Square Lndn, UK WC1A 2NS LATIN AMERICA Cabrera 6060, 7D C1414 BHN Ciudad de Buens Aires, Argentina CANADA 350-1 First Canadian Place Trnt Bard f Trade Twer Trnt, ON MSK 1C1 www.gqrr.cm www.greenbergresearch.cm
2 wmen's access t health care like cancer screenings and birth cntrl. These are bth margins significantly larger than the nes Demcrats received n cre issues including Scial Security and Medicare, educatin, and ecnmic ppulism. Access t wmen s health care mattered t vters they paid attentin and it impacted their vting decisins. Thugh the ecnmy and jbs were the dminant issue in these states, access t wmen s health care played a key rle in the way peple vted. Eighty-six percent said, prtecting wmen's access t healthcare like cancer screenings and birth cntrl was an imprtant issue in their vting decisin, ranking it alngside key issues like health care, educatin, and Scial Security/Medicare in terms f significance t vters. In regressin analysis, prtecting a wman s access t health care and t abrtin were the strngest predictrs f vting Demcratic, alng with imprving educatin, and higher than Scial Security and Medicare (see appendix). On the whle, campaigns inclusin f wmen s health added value t pr-chice Demcratic candidates campaigns. As part f a brader narrative, these issues helped cntribute t Demcrats running a net 5 pints better amng wmen this year than in 2010, despite the 2014 electrate being as r mre Republican than fur years ag 1. Mrever, in a tugh year fr Demcrats with a cnservative leaning electrate, persnhd ballt measures were defeated by large margins in Nrth Dakta and Clrad. And the natinal exit plls shwed a 52 percent majrity favrs legal abrtin 2. In this battlegrund research, a significant blc f vters in these states said they wuld nt cnsider abrtin fr themselves, but als ppse restricting access fr thers. When this ntin f persnal mrality was cnsidered, 78 percent f this electrate held the psitin that the gvernment shuld nt restrict abrtin access. Figure 1: Issue Imprtance Battery, Percent Respnding Very Imprtant I believe having an abrtin is mrally acceptable and shuld be legal 26% I am persnally against abrtin fr myself and my family, but I dn't believe gvernment shuld prevent a wman frm making that decisin fr 52% herself. I believe having an abrtin is mrally wrng and shuld be illegal. 19% I am ging read yu sme statements abut the issue f abrtin, and please tell me which ne cmes clsest t yur wn view. 78% Survey Findings Demcratic candidates held much bigger advantages n the issues f wmen s health than any ther issue in the campaigns. Acrss these Senate battlegrund states, the Demcratic candidates held 8- t 12-pint leads n cre Demcratic issues frm schls t Scial Security t the middle class. But the largest Demcratic advantages were n prtecting wmen s access t safe, legal abrtin (57 pints) and t health care (32 pints) 1 Data frm 2014 natinal exit plling as f 11/11/14: www.cnn.cm/electin/2014/results/race/huse#exit-plls. 2 Data frm 2014 natinal exit plling as f 11/11/14: www.cnn.cm/electin/2014/results/race/huse#exit-plls. 2014 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rsner Nvember 11, 2014
3 far greater than the partisanship in these states. Mrever, prtecting access t safe, legal abrtin was the nly pening fr Demcratic candidates t peel ff supprt frm Republican wmen they favred the Demcrat by 25 pints n this issue while siding with the Republican by at least 29 pints n every ther issue tested. Wmen s health gave Demcrats an edge with key nn-demcratic vting blcs. The Demcratic advantages n these issues were even larger amng Independent wmen, wh gave them a 60-pint and 41-pint edge, respectively. Wmen s health resnates amng men. Men in these battlegrund states gave the Demcrats a 52-pint advantage n abrtin and a 22-pint edge n wmen s health care. In Clrad specifically, men sided with the Demcrats by 51 pints n abrtin and 19 pints n wmen s health care. In cntrast, n the ecnmy, Scial Security/Medicare, educatin, and the middle class, men favred the Republican candidate. Wmen s health prvided an even bigger prprtinal advantage in Clrad. In Clrad, the gap between these tw issues and all thers was even wider than acrss the battlegrund states. Figure 2: Jb Cmparisn Battery, Ttal Demcrat Better-Republican Better Ttal (Dem-Rep) Clrad (Dem-Rep) Prtecting wmen's access t safe, legal abrtin +57 +55 Prtecting wmen's access t healthcare like cancer screenings and birth cntrl +32 +30 Ensuring that wmen earn equal pay fr equal wrk +22 +13 Imprving educatin and public schls +12 +4 Prtecting Scial Security and Medicare +12 +5 Prmting ecnmic plicies that help wrking wmen and families +11 +3 Taking n the crprate interests and fighting fr the middle class +9 +4 Respnding t the Ebla virus -3-4 Dealing with terrrism and the threat frm ISIS -24-22 Reducing taxes and cutting gvernment spending -29-32 Please tell me whether, verall, yu think (THE DEMOCATIC CANDIDATE) r (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) wuld d a better jb with this issue. Wmen s health and persnhd were very cmpelling reasns t vte against the Republican candidates. On the whle, all messages tested in this survey scred high and in the same range. The fllwing chart shws that arguments surrunding wmen s health issues and abrtin were every bit if nt mre pwerful than any ther issue used significantly in these campaigns. In fact, the mst intensely persuasive critique f the Republican candidates centered n abrtin. In Clrad, a gap between the wmen s 2014 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rsner Nvember 11, 2014
4 health/abrtin negatives and all thers emerged. Mrever, there were successful Demcratic Senate candidates in states like Michigan and New Hampshire, wh used chice in the critique f their Republican ppnents. Figure 3: Republican Negatives, Percent Respnding Very Persuasive (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) ppses a wman's right t a safe, legal abrtin in all circumstances, including rape, incest, and when the health f the wman is in danger (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) wants t give tax breaks t the crprate special interests but raise taxes n the middle class, small businesses, and senirs (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) supprts defunding Planned Parenthd and denying wmen access t cancer screenings, and birth cntrl. (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) supprts allwing bsses make persnal healthcare decisins fr their female emplyees by denying them cverage fr birth cntrl. (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) ppses raising the minimum wage and is against a plan t make cllege mre affrdable (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) supprts ending the Medicare guarantee by turning it int a vucher prgram and privatizing Scial Security. (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) wuld allw wmen t be paid less than men fr equal wrk and wuld let insurance cmpanies charge wmen mre than men. (PERSONHOOD W/O ABORTION) (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) supprts a plan that culd interfere with persnal, private medical decisins relating t birth cntrl. (PERSONHOOD W/ ABORTION) (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE) supprts a plan that culd interfere with persnal, private medical decisins relating t birth cntrl and ban access t safe and legal abrtin. (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)'s campaign was funded by the utf-state billinaire Kch brthers wh want huge tax breaks fr big il cmpanies and crpratins that ship jbs verseas Ttal Clrad 45 45 42 38 42 42 41 40 40 36 40 33 40 41 40 42 40 41 40 35 Please tell me whether this is a very persuasive reasn t vte against (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE), a smewhat persuasive reasn, a little persuasive, r nt at all a persuasive reasn t vte against (THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE). Prtecting wmen s access t health care was an imprtant vting issue in these states. The ecnmy and jbs dminated the debate, ranking as the mst imprtant vting issue acrss the battlegrund states. Still, nearly six-in-ten vters reprted that prtecting wmen s access t health care was a very imprtant issue t them in deciding hw t vte. In regressin analysis, after cntrlling fr the independent effect f partisanship, religisity, idelgy, educatin, marital status and ther demgraphics, prtecting wmen s access t health care and abrtin were the strngest predictrs f vting fr a Demcratic candidate (see appendix fr full results). 2014 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rsner Nvember 11, 2014
5 Abut The Survey On behalf f NARAL Pr-Chice America and the Planned Parenthd Actin Fund, Greenberg Quinlan Rsner Research cnducted this survey amng 1,400 Nvember 2014 vters in Clrad, Iwa, New Hampshire, and Nrth Carlina. The survey included versamples in Clrad and Nrth Carlina, fr a ttal f 400 interviews in each f thse tw states and 300 in each f Iwa and New Hampshire. The survey was cnducted by live prfessinal interviewers between Nvember 2 and 5, 2014. Respndents reached prir t the clsing f the plls wh had nt vted early were screened using a tight hybrid methdlgy t ensure they wuld vte. Thirty percent f all interviews were cnducted n a cell phne. The sample fr this survey was drawn randmly frm a list f registered vters and stratified by the cunties within each state. Qutas were assigned t reflect the expected cntributin f these areas t the ttal electrate. The sample reflects the demgraphic cmpsitin f the Nvember 2014 electrate accrding t data frm the U.S. Census Bureau, exit pll data frm the Natinal Electin Pl, and several distinct vter files. The ttal sample is subject t a margin f errr f +/-2.6 percentage pints at the 95 percent cnfidence interval; the margin f errr fr each f the Clrad and Nrth Carlina samples is +/-4.9 percentage pints at the 95 percent cnfidence interval. Margin f errr is higher amng subgrups. 2014 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rsner Nvember 11, 2014