Matching Economic Migration with Labour Market Needs /V OECD BETTER POUCIES FOR SETTER UVES European Commission
TABLE Of CONTENT* 5 Table of contents Executive summary j 5 Editorial: Turningthe corner 17 Part I. Demographic context Chapter 1. Demographic trends, labour market needs and Migration 23 by Frangois Heran 1.1. Introduction 24 1.2. Conclusion: Learning from the past - Conciliating economic needs and human rights... 33 Notes 34 References 35 Chapter 2. Demographic change and the future of the labour force in the EU27, other OECD countries and selected large emerging economies 37 by Jason Gagnon 2.1. Introduction 38 2.2. Main findings 38 2.3. Long-term global demographic trends 39 2.4. Recent trends in working-age population in the EU27 and other OECD countries 41 2.5. The labour force: Demographic vs. cohort effects 46 2.6. Beyond participation: Skills and geographica! mismatches 50 2.7. What role does international migration play? 51 2.8. Conclusion 56 Notes 57 References 58 Annex 2.AI. Supplementaiy figures 62 Chapter 3. Current and future skills of the workforce: The demography of educational attainment and the role of migration 67 by Josep Mestres 3.1. Introduction 68 3.2. Educational attainment of the labour force and the role of migration 68 3.3. Projections of the labour force by educational attainment for 2020 79 3.4. Conclusion 94 Notes *6 References *7 Annex 3.AI. Methodology for estimating the components of demographic change 98 Annex 3.A2. Methodology for estimating the projected educational attainment of the workforce in 2020 MATCHING ECONOMIC MIORATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS C OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014
6 - TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 4. The demography of occupational change and skill use among immigrants and the native-born by Georges Lemaitre 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Main findings 4.3. The demography of occupational change 4.4. The extent of occupational change over the decade 2000-10 4.5. Occupational change and intra- and extra-european migration 4.6. Occupational change: The gender dimension 4.7. Conclusion Notes References Annex 4.AI. Methodology for estimating the components of demographic change Annex 4.A2. Occupational change and overqualification 111 112 112 114 116 130 134 138 141 142 144 146 Part II. Migrant skills Chapter 5. Immigrant skills, their measurement, use and return: A review of literature 153 by Ana Damas de Matos 5.1. Introduction 154 5.2. Immigrants' educational attainment and skills 154 5.3. Returns to education and skills in the host country labour market 161 5.4. Explanations for the differences in returns to Immigrant and native skills 167 5.5. Conclusion 173 Notes 176 References 177 Annex 5.AI. Educational attainment 183 Annex 5.A2. Explanatory factors of the difference in returns to education between immigrants and natives 185 Chapter 6. The qualifications of immigrants and their value in the labour market: A comparison of Europe and the United States by Ana Damas de Matos and Thomas Liebig 6.1. Introduction 6.2. The qualifications of immigrants 6.3. The value of immigrants' qualifications in the labour market 6.4. Selected issues in transferring qualifications from the country of origin to the host country 6.5. Conclusion Notes References Annex.ö.Al. Supplementary tables and figures 187 188 189 201 209 213 214 216 217 MATCHING ECONOMIC MIGRATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS - 7 Chapter 7. The international portability of migrant human capital: Canadian experiences 229 by Arthur Sweetman 7.1. Introduction 230 7.2. The Canadian context 231 7.3. Aspects of skill portability central to labour market outcomes 235 7.4. Interactions between skills affect portability 241 7.5. Conclusion 242 Notes 243 References 246 Chapter 8. Migrants' skills: Use, mismatch and labour market outcomes - A first exploration of the International Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 249 by Sara Bonfanti and Theodora Xenogiani 8.1. Introduction 250 8.2. Description of the data 251 8.3. Migrants' skills and how they compare with those of natives 254 8.4. The labour market outcomes of migrants 268 8.5. The wages of migrants 288 8.6. Conclusion 300 Notes 303 References 305 Annex 8.A1. Further descriptives and analysis 309 Part III. Labour shortages and Migration Chapter 9. Projected labour market imbalances in Europe: Policy challenges in meeting the Europe 2020 employment targets 315 by Cedefop 's Skills Analysis Team under the supervision of Pascaline Descy 9.1. Introduction 316 9.2. Employment rate gaps in EU member states 317 9.3. Meeting the EU2020 employment target 318 9.4. Labour imbalances and the need for activation in EU member states 322 9.5. Conclusion 326 Notes 328 References 329 Annex 9.A1. The Cedefop pan-european forecasting model of skill supply and skill demand 330 Chapter 10. Occupational labour shortages: Underlying concepts and their role in US migration policy 335 by Burt S. Barnow 10.1. Introduction 336 10.2. Occupational labour shortages in theory and practice 336 10.3. Using occupational shortage data for Immigration and temporary visas 341 10.4. Conclusion 345 Notes 347 References 348 MATCHING ECONOMIC MIGRATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014
8 - TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 11. Migration in Europa: An overview of results froin the 2008 Immigrant module with implications for labour migration 349 by Georges Lemaitre 11.1. Introduction 350 11.2. The data source 350 11.3. International migration by reason for migrating 352 11.4. The evolution of the distribution of reasons for migrating by years of residence 354 11.5. Employment rates by category of entry and their evolution with years of residence... 356 11.6. Occupation skill levels of recent immigrants and overqualification 358 11.7. Sources of skills 361 11.8. Job-changing among recent international migrants 365 11.9. A recapitulation of results from the module 366 11.10. Policy implications 368 11.11. Increasing retention 371 11.12. Increasing the volume of highly skilled migration 372 11.13. Conclusion 376 Notes 378 References 379 Figures Figure 1.1. Percentage of immigrants ("Ist generation") and children of immigrant(s) ("2nd generation") in selected countries 25 Figure 1.2. The weight of family and humanitarian migration to France 30 Figure 1.3. Differences in employment rates between foreign-born and native-bom in OECD countries (men and women), 2001-12 31 Figure 1.4. Proportion of population "with a migration background" (first + second generations) in German Länder 32 Figure 2.1. Total population by major area, 1950-2100 40 Figure 2.2. Average annual rate of population change, 1950-2100 40 Figure 2.3. Median age of the population, 1950-2100 41 Figure 2.4. Population aged 15-24, 1950-2100 41 Figure 2.5. Population pyramids, 2010 vs. 2025 42 Figure 2.6. Variation in the working-age population between 2010 and 2020 in OECD countries and selected emerging economies 45 Figure 2.7. Labour force participation (15-64) by gender in selected OECD countries and the EU27, 1983-2011 46 Figure 2.8. Evolution of average number of years of schooling of the adult population in OECD countries, 1970,2010, 2060 50 Figure 2.9. Components of total population growth in OECD countries, 1960-2020 51 Figure 2.10. Age structure of the population aged 15 and over in OECD countries by gender and place of birth, 2005/06 52 Figure 2.11. Old-age dependency ratio for total and native-bom population in selected OECD countries, 2010 52 Figure 2.12. Share of high-educated among immigrants and native-bom, aged 15 and over, by duration of stay in selected OECD countries, 2005/06 53 Figure 2.13. Permanent inflows into selected OECD countries, by category of entry, 2010...54 Figure 2.14. Participation rates (15-64) by gender and place of birth in selected OECD countries, 2012 54 MATCHING ECONOMIC MIGRATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS C OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014