NIGERIA HUMANITARIAN CRISES ANALYSIS 2017 February 2017 Each year, Sida conducts a humanitarian allocation exercise in which a large part of its humanitarian budget is allocated to emergencies worldwide. This allocation takes place in the beginning of the year as to ensure predictability for humanitarian organizations and to allow for best possible operational planning. In an effort to truly adhere to the humanitarian principles, Sida bases its allocation decisions on a number of objective indicators and parameters of which the most important are related to the number of affected people, vulnerability of affected people and level of funding in previous years. One of the indicators is also related to forgotten crises in order to ensure sufficient funding to low profile crises. Besides this initial allocation, another part of the humanitarian budget is set aside as an emergency reserve for sudden onset emergencies and deteriorating humanitarian situations. This reserve allows Sida to quickly allocate funding to any humanitarian situation throughout the year, including additional funding to Nigeria. For 2017, Nigeria is allocated an initial 130 MSEK in January 2017. Close monitoring of the situation in Nigeria will continue throughout the year for potential additional funds. 1. CRISIS OVERVIEW Conflict Background/Underlying cause The current conflict in north-eastern Nigeria has a long and complicated history, and even though the Boko Haram insurgency started in 2009, the foundations for the conflict were laid much earlier, with a persistent divide between northern and southern Nigeria dating back to the days of the British colonial rule. The disparity between southern and northern Nigeria has later been further exacerbated by the oil-induced economic upswing of the south, whereas the north has remained largely overlooked. The petroleum industry has created revenues that have enabled Nigeria to become a middle-income country and Africa s largest economy, but the accumulation of wealth in the south has added to the perception of the privileged south and the neglected north. The rise of Boko Haram should consequently not only be understood as a religious, fundamentalist movement, but also as a reaction to longstanding issues within the Nigerian society. As of today, more than 20,000 people have been deprived of their lives as a direct consequence of Boko Haram s attacks on civilians, but also due to clashes between Nigerian Armed Forces and Boko Haram. When the conflict now enters its eighth year, a total of 26 million Nigerians have been affected by the crisis, with an estimated 1.8 million people being internally displaced in north-eastern Nigeria, and more than 14 million Nigerians are in need of humanitarian assistance. During 2016, the Nigerian Armed Forces has been able to push back Boko Haram and reclaim many local government areas (LGAs). The counterinsurgency operations have been able to liberate 800,000 civilians, of which many are in acute need of humanitarian assistance. In addition, 958,000 people have returned to previously Boko Haram-held areas. The humanitarian response has however been largely unprepared to meet the massive needs, and has struggled to respond to the rapid escalation. A testament to the magnitude of the escalation can be observed in the HRP appeals, which have risen dramatically over the past two years, from $100 million in 2015, to $484 million in 2016 (initially $248 million), and finally to $1,054 million in 2017. Main stakeholders in the conflict The two main actors in the conflict in north-eastern Nigeria are the Government of Nigeria (GoN) and Boko Haram. The GoN did in early 2016 acknowledge they had underestimated the extent of the humanitarian needs, and has declared its intention to react decisively and swiftly to the crisis. In doing so, the GoN plays a dual role as they remain one of the primary providers of humanitarian services, whilst simultaneously trying to defeat Boko Haram by military means. The dual role puts a huge strain on the Nigerian economy, which was officially declared to have slumped into a recession in June 2016. Despite recent setbacks, Boko Haram still constitutes a major concern in the region. The movement is currently separated into two factions: the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the north of Borno 1
along Lake Chad and the Niger border, and the Abubakar Shekau-led faction in the Sambisa forest to the eastern parts of Borno. Several LGAs in Borno State remain under the two factions control, and they also regularly mark their presence with suicide bombings and attacks in the areas reclaimed by the Nigerian security forces. Between August and November 2016, Boko Haram conducted over 60 attacks on military targets in north-eastern Nigeria. In October 2016, Bakassi IDP camp in Maiduguri was subject to a suicidal attack, resulting in 10 deaths and injuring more than 20 people. Due to their high visibility, IDP camps are at a considerable risk of being targeted for future attacks. Cross border implications 187,000 Nigerian refugees have been registered in neighbouring countries. 114,000 are in Niger, 65,000 in Cameroon, and 7,000 in Chad. The figures are however most likely underestimates due to the porous nature of the borders in the region. The fluid borders have also enabled Boko Haram to conduct operations crossborder, and there are substantial fears that the conflict will spill over the Nigerian borders. Trends The outlook for 2017 remains dire and the humanitarian needs are likely to persist throughout the year. As indicated in the HRP appeal for 2017, the needs have grown progressively over 2016, and the humanitarian needs have seen a nearly tenfold increase from early 2015. The rapid expansion and the mere scale of the crisis pose enormous challenges for the humanitarian response in 2017. 1.1 Geographical areas and affected population Which geographical areas are most severely affected? Out of the 14 million people in need of humanitarian assistance, 8.5 million are located in the most severely affected states of Yobe, Adamawa, and Borno, where 93 % of the 1.82 million IDPs reside. As a consequence, these states will be the focus of the international humanitarian response. The worst affected state is by far Borno state, where 84 % of all IDPs are located, and where a total of 4.2 million people require humanitarian assistance a number which is most likely an underestimate due to the uncertainty regarding the inaccessible areas in the northern and eastern parts of Borno. Large numbers of IDPs have started to return to their origins for the planting season, only to find their homes uninhabitable, forcing them into a second displacement. With as much as 83 % of the displaced population living with host communities, an enormous burden is put on an already vulnerable host community, where resources already are overstretched and basic services highly limited. Which groups are most vulnerable? Children are disproportionately affected by the current crisis, with 4.25 million children in need of humanitarian assistance, and it is reported that as many as 450,000 children may suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2017, and an estimated 55 % of all IDPs are children. Boko Haram opposes western education, and has therefore destructed over 1,200 schools, killed 600 teachers, and displaced a further 19,000, leaving nearly 600,000 children without education for over three years. Not only children are particularly exposed to the conflict, but also women. 53 % of the total number of people in need are women or girls, where a considerable number are pregnant women or lactating mothers, some of which may have been subject to sexual abuse or violations; 56 % of the GBV cases in north-eastern Nigeria are associated with survival sex. Women and girls are also subject to abductions, most notably the Chibok girls, where they experience physical and psychological abuse, forced marriage and labour, and sexual slavery. Young girls and women are also frequently used as suicidal bombers. What are the coping mechanism of individuals and communities? The number of people being in a state of severe food insecurity has increased by 50 % since March 2016, and the massive food and nutrition crisis in north-eastern Nigeria has left 5.1 million people on the verge of starvation (IPC Phase 3-5), of which 65,000 find themselves in a situation of extreme food insecurity (IPC Phase 5). The conflict has had major implications on people s livelihoods, which in north-eastern Nigeria primarily revolves around agriculture, and people s negative coping mechanisms have since long been depleted: assets have been destructed, and for the third consecutive year, farmers have been unable to plant their 2
seeds. People have been deprived of their income opportunities, food prices have sharply increased and some areas have no access to markets, making the region dependent upon external food assistance. 1.2 Critical Assumptions, risks and threats What are the risks and threats to peoples and communities? In the near future, the greatest risk to the civil population is starvation. Currently, more than five million people are at alarming food and nutrition levels, and the need to provide the most vulnerable population with a sustained food supply is acute. Moreover, Nigeria has also seen several outbreaks of lassa fever, meningitis, and cholera in recent years, highlighting the extreme vulnerability to disease outbreaks, considering the already overstretched health care system. Lastly, with over 20,000 fatalities to date, the security situation cannot be neglected, and a continued insurgency would inextricably implicate further direct as well as indirect fatalities. The outlook for 2017 does however not bode well, and the probability of an imminent seizure of hostilities is considered slim. What are the risks of the humanitarian operations? The environment wherein humanitarian organizations operate in north-eastern Nigeria poses a great many risks, of which the security situation undeniably is the most severe one. As of mid-november 2016, there have been 292 incidents resulting in 2,378 fatalities in 2016, in Borno state alone. The participation of international staff in the implementing process is strictly limited, and local staffs are constantly working with a risk for their lives. As national military actors conduct a large proportion of the relief operations, the blurring of the line between humanitarian and military operations potentially further worsens the situation for humanitarian workers. Humanitarian organizations are unable to operate in the rural areas of north-eastern Nigeria due to the volatile security situation, and the GoN is consequently urging displaced people to move towards LGA capitals for easier facilitation of humanitarian assistance. As people are gathering in and around the LGA capitals, new predicaments arise, relating to insufficient infrastructure, inadequate basic services, and a general lack of resources. Due to the dynamic nature of the crisis, unpredictable population movements occur, further complicating humanitarian organizations mapping, assessment, and resource prioritization. 1.3 Strategic objectives identified in the Humanitarian Response Plan What is the population covered in the plan? A total of 14 million people across six states are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance due to the crisis in northern Nigeria. The Humanitarian Response Plan 2017 will direct its limited capacities on acute life-saving support to 6.9 million people in the three worst affected states, Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa, although 8.5 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance in the three states of concern. What are the main humanitarian strategic objectives for the crises? The strategic focus for the response during 2017 will emphasize integrated and coordinated life-saving assistance, enhanced access and protection services, as well as resilience and durable solutions. The Strategic Objectives of the Nigeria Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) 2017 are: 1. Support lifesaving activities and alleviate suffering through integrated and coordinated humanitarian response focusing on the most vulnerable people. 2. Enhance access to humanitarian assistance and protection services through principled humanitarian action. 3. Foster resilience and durable solutions for affected people through restoration of livelihoods and basic social services. With 5.1 million people at the risk of starvation, immediate food assistance will consequently be a main priority for the humanitarian community in 2017, and the Food Security and the Nutrition sectors account for $592 million (56 %) of the total $1,054 million in the 2017 HRP appeal. Considering the ubiquitous violence, protection ($87 million) also constitutes a prioritized area, along with health ($93 million). 3
2. IN COUNTRY HUMANITARIAN CAPACITIES 2.1 National and local capacities and constraints Government and Civil Society The GoN formally acknowledged the extent of the crisis, and requested immediate international assistance just recently. The request followed upon the confirmation that the Nigerian economy had entered a state of recession. There is still uncertainty as to what extent the declining Nigerian economy will affect the GoN s ability to respond to the humanitarian needs, but there is a substantial risk that the national support will be curtailed. Aside from the Boko Haram conflict in north-eastern Nigeria, there are also several other conflicts across Nigeria competing for the government s attention and resources. Local NGOs are considered well developed in the country. The main local actor in the north-eastern Nigeria is the Nigerian Red Cross, which possesses a good reputation among the local populations. 2.2 International operational capacities and constraints Leadership and Coordination The federal government has the central role in the humanitarian response, with UN agencies and NGOs as partners. On a state level, SEMA (State Emergency Management Agency) is in control of the humanitarian coordination in respective state. NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency) coordinates humanitarian crises between OCHA and relevant ministries. The latter s capacity for responding to the crisis is however limited. Furthermore, in order to reduce delays and expedite decision-making, the Humanitarian Country Team recently decided to move the coordination of the humanitarian operations from Abuja to Maiduguri. Humanitarian Agencies Humanitarian international presence in Nigeria was until 2014 very limited with the aid primarily focused on development cooperation, and the general impression is that the humanitarian community struggled to scale up its operations when the crisis escalated. The international humanitarian response has however over the past year expanded rapidly, and the Nigerian response is expected to become one of the largest international relief operations in 2017. The continued expansion implicates challenges for many organizations in building capacity to manage the up-scaled response. 2.3 International and Regional assistance Donors As of 5 December 2016, the revised HRP appeal at $484 million has been funded to 51 % ($244 million). United States alone contributed to over 25 % of the funding in 2016, with the UK placing second with nearly 22 %. Germany contributed with 15 % and ECHO with 13 %. After a CERF contribution of 5.8 %, Sweden places as the 6 th largest donor with 3.8 % and $16 million of the total contribution. In total, the humanitarian funding for Nigeria in 2016 amounts to $417 million. The UNHCR-led Regional Response Plan at $198 million, including Niger, Cameroon, Chad, and Nigeria, has in 2016 been covered to 33 % ($65 million). 3. SIDAs HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLAN 3.1. The role of Sida Earlier assistance and results Prior to the 2015 escalation of the crisis, Sida s humanitarian support to Nigeria was limited to only a few partners and projects, and 28 MSEK were initially allocated to Nigeria in 2015. At the end of the year, the total amount of allocated funds amounted to 62.5 MSEK. As of 1 December 2016, Sida s support to Nigeria for 2016 amounted to 158.5 MSEK, including a 55 MSEK support to MSB for constructing a base camp for humanitarian operations. Other organizations that were supported in 2016 are ACF, IRC, Oxfam, IOM, OCHA, Plan International, WFP, ICRC, and UNICEF. Due to the severity of the crisis, the vast majority of Sida s support in 2016 went to life-saving emergency relief. In 2016, Sida also supported three regional programs in the Lake Chad Basin, with a total sum of 35 MSEK. The support went to FAO, ICRC, and UNHCR, and strengthened their multi-sectorial capacities in Nigeria, but also in Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. 4
Lessons learnt Considering the rapid growth in needs over 2016, Sida s entry value for Nigeria in 2017 will be increased. Sida s support should focus on the three north-eastern states of Nigeria, where Boko Haram s presence is most notable, and where the needs are most pressing. Despite the Nigerian Armed Forces advances and reclaim of territories, there are still huge risks constraints associated with conducting humanitarian operations in the region, and Sida s cooperation partners are facing huge limitations in terms of access and implementation capacity. 3.2. Response Priorities 2017 The focus of Sida s humanitarian assistance in Nigeria will be on life-saving support in the sectors prioritised in the HRP. As the north-east of Nigeria is experiencing a severe protection, food and nutrition security crisis, these sectors will consequently be of main priority in 2017. Geographically the most severely affected states of Yobe, Adamawa, and Borno will be prioritised. Along with a focus on lifesaving activities, more durable solutions should be considered through for example restoration and strengthening of livelihoods in order to prevent people from slipping back into acute insecurity and from joining armed groups. If successful, improved livelihoods and resumed food production may also contribute to the peaceful co-existence between refugees, IDPs and host communities. The most vulnerable groups will be prioritised, particularly girls, boys, women and elderly. Mainstreaming of gender is essential in all humanitarian programming in Nigeria and enhancing the protection of children, in line with minimum standards for child protection, is of crucial importance. Potential environmental consequences of the humanitarian presence will be taken into account as well as conflict sensitivity, which is another aspect of great importance. Finally, Sida welcomes the establishment of a country-based pooled fund and is determined to contribute to the fund when established. A fund would enable flexibility, strengthening of local actors as well increased focus on early recovery. 3.3. Partners Five strategic partners submitted Initial Submissions to Sida in 2017 of which ACF, IRC and NRC received support in 2016. Sida will continue to support these organizations in 2017 allowing the organizations to build on previous achievements as well as to scale-up and/or expand to newly accessible areas. In addition, Plan International will receive support in 2017. Based on the needs and the priorities in the response plan as well as operational and technical capacities, Sida will also provide support to OCHA, WFP, UNICEF, IOM and ICRC. All considered partners operate in the most severely affected LGAs identified in the HRP, Askira/uba, Bama, Gwoza, Konduga Ngala and particularly in the LGAs of Jere and Maiduguri where more than 450,000 people are in need of humanitarian assistance. OCHA plays a critical role in the coordination of the humanitarian response in Nigeria and plans to scale up its operations. Hence, Sida proposes to increase the support to OCHA in 2017. WFP has been working with the Nigeria response since 2015 and is now increasing its assistance in response to the growing needs. The number of people living in famine-like conditions (5.1 million people in IPC Phase 3-5, of which 65,000 people in IPC Phase 5) is expected to increase further and WFP plays a key role in the area of food security and nutrition. WFP initially planned to provide assistance through a cash-based approach, but because of dysfunctional markets and high food prices, WFP has now changed the approach to general food distribution. In order to prevent people from falling back into extreme food insecurity, coordination between lifesaving action and more durable solutions is essential. Alongside emergency food assistance provided by WFP, FAO is therefore proposed for immediate livelihood support to IDPs and host communities and for strengthening livelihood resilience. UNICEF is sector lead in nutrition, education and the child protection sub-sector in Nigeria. UNICEF has significantly scaled up its field presence with operations in the sectors of nutrition, health, WASH, child protection and education. 5
IOM is proposed for their large presence in the country and for the ongoing work on the management of IDP sites. IOM works particularly in the sectors of camp coordination and camp management, health, WASH and shelter. In addition, IOM has recently been able to access several new areas in Borno State. Humanitarian access has improved slightly and more people have been brought within reach in newly accessible areas. Many displaced people are however still located in hard-to-reach areas with limited access to humanitarian assistance. Due to ICRC s unique role and extensive access, Sida proposes to continue the support to ICRC. During 2016 Sida supported ACF in Nigeria with 8 MSEK for their work in the sectors of nutrition, wash and livelihood. ACF is now expanding the activities with cash assistance in areas with functioning markets and Sida proposes continued support for a project focusing on early recovery and livelihoods (ERL) with WASH and shelter integrated. The intervention is in line with the priorities in the HRP focusing on durable solutions for IDPs, host communities, and returnees. Sida assesses IRC to be an important humanitarian actor in Nigeria and proposes to continue the support in 2017. IRC is one of the organizations with longest presence in north-east Nigeria and has previously worked in the sectors of health, nutrition and protection. Following IRC s adaptive management approach, the intervention in 2017 will build on real time assessments with a likely focus on protection, health, reproductive health, WASH, nutrition, CBT and/or NFIs. Due to its flexible approach, IRC is an important actor in a highly dynamic and unpredictable context. NRC remains an important partner and has scaled up its humanitarian activities as a result of increased access and actively seeks to expand to Kaga, Konduga and Monguno LGAs. If the security improves, NRC also considers operating in the LGAs of Gubio, Magumeri and Nganzai. NRC will build on current activities focusing on shelter and WASH, integrated with food security and information, counselling and legal assistance (ICLA). Plan is increasing its presence in northeast Nigeria and works in the sectors of child protection, education, food security and livelihoods. This project will have an integrated approach focusing on child protection, SGBV and education. Plan has worked with Nigerian refugees in Cameroon and Niger for several years and this intervention will be linked to Plan s Lake Chad response programme. Recommended partner for Sida support Sida s humanitarian assistance to Nigeria in 2017 Sector/focus of work (incl. integrated or multi sectorial programming ), financing modality (e.g. inkind or cashbased) Proposed amount (MSEK) OCHA Coordination 4 WFP Food security, nutrition 15 FAO Food security, livelihoods 10 UNICEF Nutrition, child protection, education, health, WASH 25 IOM CCCM, health, WASH, shelter 20 ICRC IHL, protection, food security, health, 20 ACF Early recovery, livelihoods, WASH, shelter 10 IRC Protection, health, reproductive health, WASH, nutrition, 5,6 CBT and/or NFIs NRC Protection/ICLA, WASH, shelter, food security 12 Plan Protection, education, food security, livelihoods 8,4 TOTAL:130 MSEK Sources: UNOCHA HRP 2017; FAO Cadre Harmonisé Nigeria; Unicef SitReps; UNHCR Regional Appeal; IOM Displacement Matrix 6