Where U.S. Immigrants Were Born 1960 Today Other 1% Canada 2% Europe 12% Other 5% Europe 75% Asia 5% Latin America 9% Canada 10% Latin America 54% Asia 28% Sources: Migration Policy Institute, U.S. Census, United Nations Population Division, 2015 Note: 2015 figures sum to 101% due to rounding.
3.6% America s Changing Faces Annual Population Growth Rate (2014-2015) 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% Asian Hispanic Black European Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Estimates, July 2016.
California s Changing Faces Population Growth (2000-2015) Black 4.7% Asian 52.7% Hispanics 38.5% European (7.0%) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Estimates, July 2015..
California s Changing Faces Population 2015 Blacks 2.2 million Asians 5.6 million European 14.9 million Hispanics 15.1 million Sources: U.S. Census Bureau estimates, July 2015.
States with Majority Minority Toddler Populations Population Under Age 5 with European Ancestry 1. Hawaii 15.2% 2. New Mexico 24.9% 3. California 25.1% 4. Washington, D.C. 27.1% 5. Texas 31.1% 6. Nevada 36.9% 7. Arizona 39.1% 8. Maryland 42.2% 9. Florida 42.8% 10. Georgia 43.1% Sources: Brookings Institution (analysis of Census Bureau Population Estimates/2013); GSV
2015: 4 U.S. States with Majority Minorities 50%+ 30-49% <30% Sources: Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
2030: 10 States with Minority Majorities +47% +49% +34% +32% +47% +32% +53% +40% +41% +33% +35% +51% 50%+ 30-49% <30% Sources: William Frey; US Census Bureau Population Projections; States of Change
Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames in California 1990 1. Smith 2. Lee 3. Johnson 4. Garcia 5. Brown 6. Williams 7. Miller 8. Wong 9. Martinez 10. Jones 2010 1. Nguyen 2. Lee 3. Garcia 4. Chen 5. Lopez 6. Rodriguez 7. Gonzalez 8. Hernandez 9. Martinez 10. Kim Source: MDA DataQuick, county records / California Association of Realtors
Mexico GDP: $1.0 Trillion (2017) Population: 123 Million Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; CIA World Factbook (8/21/17). Source: CIA
United States GDP: $18.9 Trillion (2017) Population: 323 Million Source: CIA Source: BEA estimate from first quarter; CIA World Factbook (8/21/17).
Mexico Plus 2017 GDP: $6.4 Trillion POP: 208 Million GDP: $13.5 Trillion POP: 238 Million Source: BEA; IMF World Economic Outlook; CIA World Factbook (8/21/17).
If you invested $100 in the Mexico stock exchange (Bolsa) in 1988 Hurricane devastate coastal areas Presidential candidate murdered Regional rebellion Widespread corruption Attorney general jailed Thousands die in deadly drug wars
Mexico Bolsa vs. U.S. S&P 500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Mexico 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 U.S. 500 0 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017 13 Note: S&P/BMV Bolsa units expressed in U.S. dollars. Source: Bloomberg
NAFTA Imports and Exports Imports Exports $60 $60 $50 $50 $40 $40 $30 $20 Canada $30 $20 Canada $10 $0 Mexico $10 $0 Mexico Note: 4 month moving average. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Total Employment Index Based on NAFTA 150 140 130 120 January 1, 1994 NAFTA Mexico U.S. 110 100 90 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon (3/6/2017).
Manufacturing Jobs Employment, Millions 18 16 14 U.S. 12 10 8 Mexico 6 4 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OECD, ECFIN, INEGI.
Stock Market: DJIA and Bolsa Index, Based at NAFTA 600 Dow Jones 500 400 January 1, 1994 NAFTA 300 200 100 Mexico Bolsa 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon (3/6/2017).
Examples of Social Capital Universal suffrage Rule of law Education and health care Police and fire protection Religious freedom Cultural resources Property rights Protection of creditors Financial reporting standards
Human Capital Flees Venezuela Brain drain: 1.3 million Venezuelans have emigrated. In 2000, there were 91,500 Venezuelans living in the U.S. By 2010, there were 215,000. Venezuelans living in Spain have quintupled. Venezuelanborn Spaniards have more than doubled to 90,000. 70% of staff at Central University of Venezuela have left; university closed September 2015 40% highly educated (PhD and Master s) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau/Spanish Ministry of Labor and Immigration (Wall Street Journal 10/17/2011 Venezuelan Diaspora Booms Under Chavez ); Los Angeles Times; Venezuela s Education Crisis (11 17 15); International Monetary Fund (Wall Street Journal (7/18/16)
The IMF ranks Venezuela World s worst economic growth. Consumer price inflation will hit 480% in 2016, and 1,640% in 2017. 2 nd worst murder rate. 9 th highest unemployment rate. Infant mortality rate 100x higher than four years ago. Currency has lost 99% of its value since 2012. Source: International Monetary Fund (Washington Post 5/19/16)
Sovereign Loans: Historically the Riskiest Debt Argentina s Defaults 1830 1982 1890 1989 1915 2001 1930s 2007 1951 2014 1956 Source: Reinhart and Rogoff. Note: Includes external, domestic, and provincial defaults.
Argentina: How to Destroy Social Capital Nationalize foreign and domestic companies Confiscate property, savings and retirement funds Default on debt repeatedly Inflate currency (but understate inflation) Take IMF loans, then bar their auditors Censor media and independent economists Ban currency conversion [There s more ]
Argentina: How to Destroy Social Capital Protect inefficient industries with tariffs Regulate entrepreneurs out of business Impose price controls Restrict land purchases by foreigners Abrogate contracts Ban foreign books with too much lead in ink Reward government cronies Ignore official corruption Cover up death of prominent government critic (allegedly)
Yet June 19, 2017 Argentina Plans to Offer 100 Year Bonds Argentina sold 100 year bonds barely a year after settling a protracted legal dispute tied to a $95 billion default. Argentina has staged a spectacular turnaround in the capital markets just a year after ending its long running dispute with creditors over its 2001 default. The bonds of developing nations have become the darlings of investors in 2017. Source: Bloomberg