European Council Update Paper Topic A: Implications of the Catalonian Crisis for the EU Although the Catalonian independence movement can trace its origins back to the early eighteenth century War of Spanish Succession, where Catalonia was annexed to form the modernday autonomous state of Spain, the latest push for independence has been mostly attributed to the infamous Franco regime and Spain s inauspicious economic situation. General Francisco Franco s harsh reign from 1938 to 1977 aimed to destroy the separatist movement in Catalonia by attempting to impose the Spanish language, laws, and customs on the Catalan people. 1 His rule led to the persecution, exile, and even deaths of thousands of Catalan people; however, a grant of autonomy for the region in 1977 cooled the fires of independence until the recent calls for complete independence resurfaced in July 2010. 2 The recent calls for independence are mostly a result of the fact that Catalonia is responsible for nearly 20 percent of Spain s GDP, which is equal to that of the Madrid region and represents a heavy financial burden for Catalonia while the rest of Spain s economy struggles. Catalonia is home to numerous financial service and technology companies, and an independent Catalonia would have an economy larger than those of Portugal and Hong Kong. 3 Along with their unique language, culture, and traditions, a majority of the Catalan people voted in a referendum on October 1, 2017, to secede from Spain, even with the Spanish government s attempts to suppress the vote. Although the Spanish government declared the vote illegal and illegitimate, the independence crisis has not slowed down as important Catalan officials have appealed to the European Union (EU) for help with major implications for other regional independence movements in Europe. 1 Harriet Alexander and James Badcock. Why Does Catalonia Want Independence from Spain? The Telegraph, Telegraph Media Group, 5 Oct. 2017. 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid.
Catalan s regional president, Carles Puigdemont, appeared in Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the EU, in early November to appeal to EU officials for sympathy. 4 However, Puigdemont was met with a unanimous decision by EU leaders to agree with the Spanish government that the independence referendum was illegal. 5 Puigdemont attempted to appeal to the ideals of sovereignty and nationhood on which the EU was built, 6 but many EU statesmen were not convinced by the precedent that Catalonian independence would set throughout the continent and see the EU as a foundation for peace and stability as opposed to a champion for nationalistic aspirations of the regions that lie within its member states. 7 Article 4 of the Lisbon Treaty dictates that the EU must respect the essential state functions of its member states, which includes ensuring the territorial integrity of the State. 8 The EU is also tied up with the issue of Brexit and Eurozone reform and does not want to interfere in a crisis that could spark the resurgence of right-wing nationalism on the continent through other regional independence movements. 9 Puigdemont and other Catalan officials now face multiple charges for rebellion and sedition, which carry with them serious consequences, and unconfirmed rumors surfaced that Puigdemont fled to Brussels for the sole purpose of claiming asylum and escaping the consequences for his crimes, which undermine the legitimacy and support for his cause. 10 Up until snap elections to reelect a regional government in Catalonia occurred on December 21, 2017, the crisis in Catalonia had reduced to a simmer; however, these recent elections have resulted in another majority victory for 4 Ishaan Tharoor. Analysis How Catalonia s Crisis Is Turning into a European Problem. The Washington Post, WP Company, 1 Nov. 2017. 5 Yasmeen Serhan. Catalonia Is Becoming Europe's Problem. The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 2 Nov. 2017. 6 Ibid. 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 9 Ishaan Tharoor. Analysis How Catalonia s Crisis Is Turning into a European Problem. The Washington Post, WP Company, 1 Nov. 2017. 10 Yasmeen Serhan. Catalonia Is Becoming Europe's Problem. The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 2 Nov. 2017.
the separatist parties. 11 Even with the Spanish government s November invocation of Article 155, which imposed direct rule on Catalonia, the secessionist bloc s victory shows that the Catalonian independence movement is still alive and well. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is banking on the support he has gotten from other European nations, who have also struggled to maintain a grip on certain regions that are pushing for independence. 12 With rising populism and nationalism in Europe, it is yet to be seen how these other regions are going to react to the Catalonian crisis. Going forward, however, the separatists are likely to continue to pursue their goals but will have to consider new ways to reach their goal for more autonomy, and ultimately independence. The success of the Catalonian independence movement also will likely revolve around the way that the Spanish government responds to the actions taken by the new Catalan government. 13 Based on recent evidence, how this crisis transpires in the near future could have major implications for the EU s unity and could set a major precedent for other regions in Europe whose people wish for independence. Topic A: Negotiations between the EU and UK on Brexit The UK and European Union have reached agreement on a text that completes the first stage of Brexit negotiations, 14 focusing on three areas: protecting the rights of EU and UK nationals in each other s territories, creating a framework for addressing the unique circumstances in Northern Ireland, and addressing financial settlement. 15 11 Raphael Minder. Catalonia s Election Yields a Crisis That Is Here to Stay. The New York Times, The New York Times, 22 Dec. 2017. 12 Ibid. 13 Ibid. 14 Joint Report from the Negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government, on Progress During Phase 1 of Negotiations Under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom s Orderly Withdrawal from The European Union, Dec. 8, 2017. 15 Ibid.
On citizens rights: The overall objective of the future Withdrawal Agreement with respect to citizens rights is to provide reciprocal protection for EU and UK citizens and to enable them to exercise rights derived from the EU law, in which citizens have exercised free movement rights by the time of the UK s withdrawal. 16 In stage one, the EU and the UK have agreed on three principles: a reciprocal application for EU citizens in the UK and for the UK citizens in the EU, no discrimination based on nationality, and a cut-off date fixed at the date of the British withdrawal, with possible future adaption. These principles have great importance because they focus on the creation of a transparent, smooth and streamlined procedure for applications for status and incorporation procedures. 17 On Ireland: Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union and therefore share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two. Because Northern Ireland is a part of the United Kingdom, Brexit risks a return to a hard or policed border. During stage one, the UK Government has agreed with the EU on key commitments to Northern Ireland UK-Northern Ireland relationship. 18 Under the framework, both parties have agreed to avoid a harder border on the island of Ireland; to protect the Good Friday Agreement in all its dimensions and North-South cooperation; to ensure that residents of Northern Ireland who are Irish citizens will continue to enjoy the rights of EU citizens; and to allow the continuation of the Common Travel Area. 19 16 Ibid. 17 Remarks by Michel Barnier, the European Commission s Chief Negotiator, at the press conference on the Joint Report from the Negotiator of the European Union and the United Kingdom. http://europa.eu/rapid/pressrelease_speech-17-5186_en.html. 18 Theresa May, Commitments to Northern Ireland, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prime-ministerscommitments-to-northern-ireland/prime-ministers-commitments-to-northern-ireland. 19 Ibid.
On financial settlement: The UK and the EU have reached agreement on a methodology for financial settlement. Based on the agreement, both parties agreed on the list the components of the Financial Regulation, the principles for calculating value and payments, the conditions for UK participation in the programs of the current multiannual financial framework 2014-2020, and the arrangements for the European Investment Bank, the European Central Bank, and the European Development Fund. This means the UK will continue to contribute to the Union s 2019 and 2020 budgets as well as fund its remaining shared liabilities. 20 Progress in these three areas now enables the UK Government and the EU to move to next phase of negotiations, which include future immigration systems between the UK and the EU border, regional and international trade and single market, the Customs Union, and the legislation transition. Topic A: The German Coalition Germany has been under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel since 2005. Merkel has created a German political culture that values stability above all else. Despite her longevity, however, Merkel lost influence during Germany s most recent election cycle, in which her conservative coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Bavaria s Christian Social Union (CSU) lost votes to the far right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). To make matters worse, coalition talks between the conservatives (CDU/CSU), Free Democrats (FDP), and the Green Party fell apart in mid-november, leaving the country without a governing majority. The scenario casts international doubt on Germany s ability to provide stability and leadership to Europe. In the past, the conservatives have crafted a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) to achieve a governing majority. However, after a lackluster election result for the SPD, the party 20 Ibid
only controls 20.5% of Parliament, which is a record low. 21 Consequently, Martin Schulz, the leader of the SPD decided against another coalition, believing that the years of working with Merkel have eroded the party s identity and credibility. Although the traditional parties have their differences, they all want to avoid working with the extreme right (AfD party), which limits Merkel s coalition options. Therefore, her only hope for a majority is to bring together the probusiness FDP and the environmentally-oriented Green party. Christian Linder, leader of the FDP, walked out of coalition talks on November 19 th, saying, It is better not to govern at all than to govern wrongly 22 after the talks failed to result in a common vision for the country. Now, Germany must choose between ruling with a minority government or calling another election. Given the political disarray that would ensue in either scenario and intervention from German President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the Social Democrats (SDP) have agreed to try coalition talks with Merkel again in early January. As the world watches Germany deal with their tumultuous domestic affairs, the implications for the EU remain unclear. With regards to Brexit, Germany s coalition talks will have a minimal impact. With the exception of the AfD, all of Germany s parties are strongly pro-europe, and they want to preserve and promote the EU/Eurozone. Therefore, Germany will continue to balance its commitment to the EU along with crafting an economic deal with Britain. The Center for European Reform has said that, Germans are also adamant that there will be no cherry-picking by the British after Brexit, that means no selective participation in the single market. 23 Even if a coalition is formed 21 Here's how Germany could end up having a snap election next year. (2017, November 17). Retrieved from https://www.thelocal.de/20171117/heres-how-germany-could-end-up-having-a-snap-election-nextyear 22 With the break-up of coalition talks, Germany enters new territory. (2017, November 23). Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21731663-break-up-coalition-talks-leads-country-unchartedterritory-break-up 23 Alice Foster. (2017, September 22). German election 2017: What does German election means for Brexit and the EU? Retrieved from https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/857117/german-election-result-2017-what-means-brexit- EU-Angela-Merkel-AfD-Martin-Schulz
with the FDP, Germany will prioritize a single market over trade with the UK. As a result, Brexit was allegedly ninth on Germany s list of foreign affair priorities. 24 However, when it comes to the EU, Germany s coalition talks will have a greater impact. Presently, French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a set of reforms to strengthen the EU, which include a separate budget for the Eurozone. 25 The left-leaning SDP support such reforms, which incentivizes them to form a coalition with Merkel to pass the reforms. The SDP believes that the EU has allowed Germany to prosper, which means that Germany should contribute more and be willing to provide financial assistance. However, if the pro-business FDP are able to create a coalition, then they will reject all of Macron s proposals and prioritize the Germany economy. Another issue at the center of the coalition talks is migration policy. All the major parties support European solutions to the refugee crisis, but they disagree on the specifics of those solutions. The CDU and FDP both support a strengthening of the EU s external borders and new deals according to the EU-Turkey model, 26 while the Green party rejects that idea and calls for greater solidarity between European nations. The Greens have also rejected joining any coalition that would place an upper limit on the number of refugees accepted. On the other hand, the FDP have ruled out any fiscal transfers between EU nations, which significantly complicate Macron s plan for Eurozone integration. Overall, as long as the AfD doesn t rise to power, Germany will continue a pro-europe/eu foreign policy, which leaves its stance on many issues, like Brexit, unchanged. However, the 24 Kettle, M. (2017, November 27). What does Germany's political crisis mean for Brexit? Martin Kettle. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/20/germany-political-crisis-angela-merkel-brexitsolution 25 Macron's Europe reforms in focus in German coalition talks: Gabriel. (2017, December 23). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-france/macrons-europe-reforms-in-focus-in-german-coalitiontalks-gabriel-iduskbn1eh04h 26 The German Election - What Does It Mean for Europe? (2017, October 4). Retrieved from http://www.eir.info/2017/10/04/the-german-election-what-does-it-mean-for-europe/
specific coalition government formed will have a huge impact on the future of Macron s reforms and the inclusiveness of the EU. In the event that a coalition with the SDP is not reached, then Germany s unstable political future could have drastic implications for Europe.