Summary Since the illegal referendum in Catalonia took place, in October 1 st, there have been relevant news along this week: 1) A strike was called in Catalonia to protest against the violent actions by police on October 1 st. The strike had massive support as thousands of citizens took to the streets. 2) Spain s King Felipe VI, in a televised address to the nation, sent a message of calm, confidence and hope. He openly criticized the irresponsible behavior of the Catalan leaders and defended the constitutional order. 3) Catalan government scheduled a plenary sitting for October 9 th. The regional Parliament is expected to move to declare independence unilaterally. However, Constitutional court has already blocked this parliament session in order to avoid this declaration. Economic and financial storm This situation have also rattled financial markets, with important falls in Spanish stocks and with some companies drawing up plans to leave the region. Banco Sabadell already announced its departure and other relevant financial institutions, like Caixabank, is planning to do it. At this point, there is some uncertainty about the following steps that may be taken by each side, but any decision will involve a change in the current statu quo.
October 1 st The illegal referendum on Catalonia s independence took place on Sunday, October 1 st. Despite the Court s orders forbidding the consultation and of not having the necessary guarantees to hold the vote, the [Catalonian Regional Government] Generalitat opened polling stations enabling the consultation. The day was marked by chaos and a strong police deployment, which used force to prevent the illegal referendum from taking place at many centres. These actions left several people injured and a feeling of deep social and institutional division. According to the Generalitat, the consultation had a participation around 42% of the electoral register and resulted in a YES to independence with around 90% votes. Catalan president Carles Puigdemont considered the results of the consultation valid and announced that he would report them to the Catalan Parliament, so that it can then put in motion the Catalan secession laws approved in early September and suspended by the Spanish Constitutional Court. For its part, PM Mariano Rajoy stated that he would request Congress to set a date for him to explain the events of 1-O and the following steps he intends to take in light of this territorial conflict. October 2 nd PM Rajoy met with opposition leaders from socialist PSOE and centric-right Ciudadanos to discuss the Catalonian crisis and request their support to adopt new measures. One possibility is to apply article 155 of the Spanish Constitution to ultimately force a regional election in Catalonia. This may be the hardest measure, if faced with a unilateral declaration of independence, and the most likely as long as the main opposition leaders lend their support. However, if this support cannot be garnered, Rajoy would be weakened and, according to certain outlets, he could even decide to call an early general election. What is article 155? If a regional community acts in a way that severely damages Spain s general interests or does not fulfil the obligations set out in the Constitution and Laws, as in the current case in Catalonia, the State may adopt any necessary measures to force that community to respect the Law. Therefore, this article of the Constitution gives the central Government extraordinary powers to intervene in Catalonia and force it to fulfil its obligations. No previous Government has ever activated this article, so its consequences are difficult to foresee. Its application would have to be approved by a majority vote in the Senate, where the ruling party PP has an absolute majority.
October 3 rd A strike was called in Catalonia by regional trade unions and grassroots movements that support independence, as well as many protests against the disproportion of police actions on October 1 st. Thousands of citizens (700,000 demonstrators only in Barcelona) took to the streets and large sections of Catalonia were gridlocked, with over thirty blocked roads and public transportation providing minimum services of 25% at rush hours. The strike was widely supported in sectors like transport, ports, agriculture, reaching 85% in commerce and tourism. The union that represents SMEs and the commerce industry throughout Catalonia pointed out that 54% of Catalonian SMEs stopped their activity throughout the day. Up to 31% of companies stopped at some point, giving their workers the possibility of attending the various gatherings and demonstrations organised today. For the rest of companies, around 15%, it was business as usual. After the protests in Catalonia, King Felipe VI addressed to the nation to send a message of calm, confidence and hope. His speech was built around three key messages: irresponsible behavior of the Catalan leaders, responsibility of the legitimate powers of the state to ensure the constitutional order and his commitment to the unity and permanence of Spain. The king s speech was applauded by constitutional political parties as the ruling Partido Popular, socialists PSOE and centricright Ciudadanos. Nationalists and left -wing party Podemos criticized him for not calling for dialogue and understanding. October 4 th In the morning, Carles Puigdemont announced that on October 9 th there will be a plenary sitting. The expectation is that the majority of the independence block will move to declare unilateral independence from Spain. Nevertheless, not all members of this group would share the decision and there is a remote possibility that Parliament will opt for a less radical decision, calling for an early regional election.
Catalonia requested mediation from the European Union, though Brussels has rejected this option urging for dialogue between both parts to overcome the crisis. Meanwhile, the options for opening dialogue and negotiations among all parts involved have multiplied. The leader of the left party Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, met with nationalist parties and major unions to propose the creation of a board of "trustworthy" mediators to resolve the conflict. However, PM Rajoy has said to Iglesias that the Catalan leaders had to give up the idea of unilaterally declaring independence before taking the dialogue path: That is not negotiable. You can t deal with people who plan to blackmail the state so brutally, he stated. In turn, the Catalan regional government and the central government have been in touch, separately, with senior Church figures to sound out the possibility of them playing a mediating role. Futhermore, several organizations such as Catalan professional associations, universities, unions and regional Chamber of Commerce, have also offered to mediate in the crisis, making up an Independent Commission for the Dialogue, Mediation and Conciliation. At night, in response to King Felipe s speech, Puigdemont showed his disappointment for ignoring Catalan society and criticized the King for not acting as a moderator in the crisis and following Spain's central government's catastrophic policies towards the region. Furthermore, regional president said Catalonia is following its democratic process and that he is still opened to initiate a mediation process urging PM Rajoy to accept the options on the table received in the last few hours. However, he stated that the independent process is closer than ever to our desire. Positioning and reactions Political parties Ruling right party PP states Catalan Government is out of the law and blames them for the social fracture in Catalonia and Spain. Yet, the former president José María Aznar has urged Rajoy to call early general elections if he cannot lead the territorial crisis. Socialist PSOE showed its support for the Rule of Law and asked Rajoy to initiate a political negotiation process with the Generalitat. However, this position has been criticised by historical socialist leaders who demand total support to the Government and the Constitution. Because of the divided opinions, General Secretary, Pedro Sánchez, has scheduled a meeting next week to agree a "firm, clear and forceful position.
From the beginning, left party Podemos has called for a dialogue and a negotiation process and has been leading several meetings with political parties to achieve a mediation agreement. Meanwhile, center-right Ciudadanos supports the Government and urges PM Rajoy to apply 155 article in order to call for an early regional election. In turn, nationalists from Basque party PNV demanded dialogue and have also offered themselves as mediators. Other regional parties also claimed for negotiations and took part in the meetings led by Podemos. Economy and business world Catalonia political crisis has started to affect financial markets. Spanish stock index (Ibex35) dropped this week below 10,000 points for the first time in more than two-and-a-half years. Catalonia-headquartered banks suffered most. In addition, according to some media, the first bank of Catalonia, Caixabank may be considering moving out its domicile temporally to Baleares (another important region for the company) if necessary, in order to protect its clients. Banco Sabadell, another important Catalan bank, decided to move too, the bank reported. Investors and foreign investment funds have been spooked by the possibility of Catalonia breaking away from Spain and may be stopping all investments in the region and quarantining the rest of Spain. Círculo de Empresarios, a national association made up of business owners and top managers of the main companies operating in Spain, has shown significant concern about an unilateral declaration of independence. They demand leadership from the Government and Congress in order to restart dialogues. Other business institutions representing important Spanish companies have also gathered to discuss the Catalan crisis and expressed their concern. Further information: Miguel Ángel Aguirre Miguelangel.Aguirre@Edelman.com Helena Mariscal de Gante Helena.mariscaldegante@Edelman.com Balma Costa Balma.Costa@Edelman.com Miriam Castellanos Miriam.castellanos@Edelman.com