CBS NEWS POLL For release: Monday, November 7, 2016 7:00 am EST *Embargoed Until Monday, Nov. 7 th at 7am EST* The 2016 Election: A Lead for Clinton with One Day to Go November 2-6, 2016 With just one day left in the 2016 presidential race, Hillary Clinton holds a four-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, 45%-41% -- similar to last week. Few voters say their minds could change. Donald Trump leads among white men, whites without a college degree, and seniors. Hillary Clinton leads among women, African-Americans, younger voters, and she has an edge among whites with a college degree. Clinton voters are more likely to strongly favor their candidate than Trump voters, while Trump voters are slightly more likely than Clinton voters to cast their vote because they dislike the other candidates. Where the Race Stands On the eve of the 2016 presidential election, Clinton now leads. In a four-way match-up that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the CBS News Poll finds Hillary Clinton holding a four-point lead over Donald Trump. 2016 Vote for President: 4-Way Race (Among likely voters including leaners) Now 11/3/2016 10/19/2016 10/4/2016 9/2016 Hillary Clinton 45% 45% 47% 45% 42% Donald Trump 41 42 38 41 42 Gary Johnson 5 5 8 8 8 Jill Stein 2 4 3 3 4 Undecided 4 3 2 2 2 In a two-way match-up that doesn t explicitly name the third party candidates, Clinton also has a four-point lead over Donald Trump. 2016 Vote for President: 2-Way Race (Among likely voters including leaners) Now 11/3/2016 10/19/2016 10/4/2016 9/2016 Hillary Clinton 47% 47% 51% 49% 46% Donald Trump 43 44 40 43 44 Other 5 5 5 4 5 Undecided 4 4 3 3 2 The vast majority of voters are now firm in their choice: just 5% of likely voters with a candidate choice say they might change their minds. Third party voters are more flexible about one in 1
five says they could still change their minds though they make up a very small percentage of voters overall. Is Your Mind Made Up? (Among likely voters with a candidate choice) Total Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein/Other Voters Voters Voters Voters Yes, mind made 95% 96% 96% 77% No, might change 5 4 4 22 Most voters still expect Hillary Clinton to emerge victorious on Tuesday, including nine in 10 Clinton voters. Most Trump voters expect their candidate to win, though by a smaller margin than Clinton voters. Who Do You Expect to Win? (Among likely voters including leaners) Total Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein/ Voters Voters Voters Other Voters Hillary Clinton 55% 89% 17% 61% Donald Trump 31 2 68 16 Demographics The demographic profile of the race is virtually unchanged from last week. The gender gap remains: Trump leads among men, while Clinton has a double-digit advantage among women. White voters are backing Trump, particularly white men and whites without a college degree. The race is close among white women, and Clinton has an edge among white college graduates. Clinton has a large lead with African Americans. Similar percentages of the candidates own parties are backing them (over eight in 10), while the race is close among independents. Clinton enjoys a large lead among young voters, but 13% say they ll vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Trump leads by seven points among seniors. Clinton has the lead among new voters. 12% of likely voters say 2016 is the first year they voted or will vote, either in the primaries or in the upcoming general election. Clinton leads among those voters, while the race is tighter among those who voted before 2016. Donald Trump is leading among voters who made up their minds in the last two weeks, while Clinton leads among those who made their decision earlier. 2
2016 Vote for President (Among likely voters including leaners) Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Total 45% 41 5 2 Men 39% 47 6 2 Women 51% 36 4 2 White voters 38% 49 5 1 Black voters 86% 4 1 2 White men 31% 55 6 1 White women 45% 43 4 2 Republicans 6% 84 4 1 Democrats 85% 6 2 2 Independents 38% 40 9 4 White coll grad 44% 41 7 1 White non-coll grad 34% 54 4 1 Age 18-29 53% 32 9 4 30-44 47% 35 8 4 45-64 44% 44 3 2 65+ 41% 48 2 * First time voter in 2016 57% 34 7 1 Voted before 2016 44% 42 4 2 Decided in last 2 weeks 35% 48 13 4 Decided earlier 50% 44 4 2 Voter Enthusiasm Hillary Clinton has now closed the enthusiasm gap her voters are now slightly more likely to say they are very enthusiastic about voting than Donald Trump s voters. This is a shift from last week, when Trump voters had the edge on enthusiasm. Enthusiastic about Voting in 2016 (Among likely voters) Total Voters Clinton Voters Trump Voters Now 11/3/2016 Now 11/3/2016 Now 11/3/2016 Very 48% 49% 53% 51% 51% 56% Somewhat 25 24 24 26 26 23 Not too 11 11 9 10 11 10 Not at all 15 15 12 12 10 10 3
Strength of Support Slightly more Trump voters (24%) than Clinton voters (20%) now say they are supporting Donald Trump because they dislike the other candidates, and more Clinton voters strongly favor their candidate. Strength of Support (Among likely voters with a candidate choice) Total Voters Clinton Voters Trump Voters Strongly favor 50% 56% 48% Like with reservations 25 23 27 Dislike other candidates 25 20 24 Recent Controversies The closing weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign has shown both of the two major party candidates beset by late-breaking scandals. Most recently, the FBI announced last week that it was renewing its investigation into Hillary Clinton s emails to see if she improperly handled any classified information. For nearly two-thirds of likely voters, this revelation didn t make any difference in their vote, though 29% said it made them less likely to vote for Clinton. Nearly all the interviews for this poll were conducted before FBI Director James Comey issued a statement yesterday afternoon that no new actions were warranted against Hillary Clinton based on the newly discovered emails. Does The FBI Reviewing the Recently Discovered Emails Make You? (Among likely voters including leaners with a candidate choice) More likely to vote for Clinton 5% Less likely to vote for Clinton 29 No difference 64 Most voters also say the recent allegations of unwanted sexual contact by a number of women against Donald Trump made no difference, though more than a third says it makes them less likely to vote him. Do the Allegations About Trump Sexually Assaulting Women Make You? (Among likely voters including leaners with a candidate choice) More likely to vote for Trump 2% Less likely to vote for Trump 36 No difference 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This poll was conducted by telephone November- 2-6, 2016 among a random sample of 1,753 adults nationwide, including 1,426 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. 4
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. The sample of likely voters is modeled among registered voters (N=1,426), assigning each respondent a probability of voting based on their responses. The margin of error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus three points. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 5
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL The 2016 Election: A Lead for Clinton with One Day to Go November 2-6, 2016 Q1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Oct16e % % % % % A lot 67 71 71 62 74 Some 22 23 18 26 19 Not much 7 5 8 8 4 No attention so far 2 1 3 3 3 Don't know/no answer 1 * * 1 * Q2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 election for President this November -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President? Definitely vote 66 67 68 64 75 Probably vote 9 8 7 11 6 Probably not vote 3 1 2 4 2 Definitely not vote 1 1 1 2 2 Already Voted (vol.) 21 23 22 18 14 Don't know/no answer 1 1 1 * 1 Q3/Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton for President and Tim Kaine for Vice President, the Democrats, and Donald Trump for President and Mike Pence for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine or Donald Trump and Mike Pence? ASK IF DEPENDS/DON T KNOW: Well as of today, do you lean more toward Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine or more toward Donald Trump and Mike Pence? **** LIKELY VOTERS **** Clinton and Kaine 47 6 88 41 47 Trump and Pence 43 86 7 42 44 Other 5 5 1 8 5 Won't vote 1 1 1 2 1 Don't know/no answer 4 2 3 7 4
Q6/Q7. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, would you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? IF DEPENDS OR DON T KNOW: Well as of today, do you lean more toward Hillary Clinton, or more toward Donald Trump, or more towards Gary Johnson, or more towards Jill Stein? * LIKELY VOTERS INCLUDING LEANERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Oct16e % % % % % Clinton 45 6 85 38 45 Trump 41 84 6 40 42 Johnson 5 4 2 9 5 Stein 2 1 2 4 4 Other (vol.) 2 2 1 3 1 Won't vote (vol.) 1 1 1 1 1 Don't know/no answer 4 1 3 7 3 Q8. Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election? * LIKELY VOTERS WITH CANDIDATE CHOICE * Total Clinton Vtrs Trump Vtrs % % % Mind made up 95 96 96 92 Might change mind 5 4 4 8 Don't know/no answer * * * * Q9. Would you describe your support for (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein) as strongly favoring (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein), or do you like (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein) but with reservations, or do you support (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein) because you dislike the other candidates? Strongly favor 50 56 48 50 Like, but with reservations 25 23 27 25 Dislike other candidates 25 20 24 24 Don't know/no answer 1 2 1 1 Q10. Thinking about the 2016 presidential election, overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting? ******** LIKELY VOTERS ******** Very enthusiastic 48 53 51 49 Somewhat enthusiastic 25 24 26 24 Not too enthusiastic 11 9 11 11 Not enthusiastic at all 15 12 10 15 Don't know/no answer 1 1 2 1
Q10a. When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the 2016 presidential election? * LIKELY VOTERS WITH CANDIDATE CHOICE * Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % In the last week 5 6 3 7 In the last two weeks 7 7 5 10 Earlier in October 10 11 7 11 In September 11 11 8 13 Before that 66 65 75 57 Don't know/no answer 1 1 2 1 Q11. Regardless of how you intend to vote for President in 2016, who do you expect to finally win the 2016 presidential election Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** Total Rep Dem Ind Oct16e % % % % % Hillary Clinton 55 23 84 54 56 Donald Trump 31 62 7 30 33 Depends (vol.) 2 1 2 2 2 Don't know/no answer 12 14 7 14 9 Q12. As you may know, a number of women have claimed that Donald Trump made unwanted sexual advances against them at various times over the last thirty years. (Do/Did) Donald Trump s alleged activities involving unwanted sexual advances against women make you more likely to vote for Donald Trump, less likely to vote for Donald Trump, or (do/did) they make no real difference in your vote? More likely 2 5 1 1 Less likely 36 15 55 35 No difference 59 78 43 60 Don't know/no answer 2 3 1 3 Q13. As you may know, the FBI says it has learned of additional emails that appear to be relevant to the investigation into Hillary Clinton s private email and server while Secretary of State. The FBI is reviewing these emails to determine whether or not they contain classified information. (Do/did) these actions by the FBI make you more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, or (do/did) they make no real difference in your vote? More likely 5 1 9 3 Less likely 29 53 8 32 No difference 64 43 81 64 Don't know/no answer 2 3 2 2
Q14. Which best describes you? Your vote for president in the 2016 general election will be the first time you have ever voted, you voted for the first time earlier in 2016, or you have voted in elections before 2016. ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % First time voter 8 7 6 11 Voted earlier in 2016 4 3 3 5 Voted before 2016 88 89 90 85 Don't know/no answer * * * * Unweighted Total Respondents 1,753 Weighted Total Registered Voters 1,456 1,368 Republican likely voters 424 315 Democratic likely voters 495 375 Independent likely voters 557 337