IIAS Series: Governance and Public Management International Institute of Administrative Sciences (IIAS) The International Institute of Administrative Sciences is an international association with scientific purpose based in Brussels. As a non-governmental international organisation its activities are centred on the study of public administration and on providing a forum in which comparative studies including both practical experiences and theoretical analyses of experts in public administration from all cultures are presented and discussed. The Institute is interested in all questions related to contemporary public administration at national and international levels. Website: www.iias-iisa.org Governance and Public Management Series Series edited by: Gérard Timsit, Emeritus Professor, University of Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne; Wim van de Donk, Tilburg University, The Netherlands Series Editorial Committee: Gérard Timsit, IIAS Publications Director Rolet Loretan, IIAS Director General Wim van de Donk, Member and Series Editor Michiel De Vries, Member Christopher Pollitt, Member, IRAS Editor in Chief Fabienne Maron, IIAS Scientific Administrator and Publications Coordinator The Governance and Public Management series, published in conjunction with the International Institute of Administrative Sciences (IIAS), brings the best research in public administration and management to a global audience. Encouraging a diversity of approaches and perspectives, the series reflects the Institute s commitment to a neutral and objective voice, grounded in the exigency of fact. How is governance conducted now? How could it be done better? What defines the law of administration and the management of public affairs, and can their implementation be enhanced? Such questions lie behind the Institute s core value of accountability: those who exercise authority must account for its use to those on whose behalf they act.
Governance and Public Management series Titles in the series include: Eberhard Bohne THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION Institutional Development and Reform Michiel S. De Vries THE IMPORTANCE OF NEGLECT IN POLICY MAKING Michiel S. De Vries, P. S. Reddy, M. Shamsul Haque (editors) IMPROVING LOCAL GOVERNMENT Outcomes of Comparative Research Wouter Van Dooren and Steven Van de Walle (editors) PERFORMANCE INFORMATION IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR Governance and Public Management Series Series Standing Order ISBN 978 0230 50655 8 (hardback) 978 0230 50656 5 (paperback) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and the ISBNS quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England
The Importance of Neglect in Policy-Making Michiel S. De Vries Professor of Public Administration, Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Management Research, The Netherlands
Michiel S. de Vries 2010 Corrected Printing 2010 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2010 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-31804-9 ISBN 978-0-230-27707-6 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9780230277076 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
For Lies, Linda, Liza and Machteld
Contents Figures and Tables Foreword x xii 1 Explaining and Predicting the Nature of Policy Change 1 1.1. Introduction 1 1.2. The explanation of policy change 5 1.2.1. Policy change 5 1.2.2. Explanations for policy change 6 1.2.3. The next question about policy change 15 1.2.4. The way forward to a preliminary answer 16 1.3. Preliminary notions and assumptions 17 1.3.1. Dilemmas in public policy 18 1.3.2. The need to focus 20 1.3.3. Distinguishing periods 22 1.3.4. A flexible starting point 23 1.3.5. A fixed order in consecutive focus 25 1.4. Conclusions 27 2 The Idea of Policy Generations 29 2.1. Introduction 29 2.2. The socio-genesis of the theory 31 2.2.1. Policy generations arising out of sociological theory 31 2.2.2. Policy generations arising from economic theories 34 2.2.3. Policy generations arising from cultural theories 37 2.3. Combining the theories and the idea of policy generations 40 2.3.1. Three axioms 42 2.3.2. Two hypotheses about policy change 44 2.4. Conclusions 45 3 Changing Relative Attention 49 3.1. Introduction 49 3.2. A note on the terminology 49 3.3. Shifts in attention in OECD countries between 1945 and 2000 51 vii
viii Contents 3.3.1. Societal reconstruction just after the war 51 3.3.2. The planners of the 1950s 57 3.3.3. The era of democracy 59 3.3.4. The emerging dominance of efficiency in the 1980s 60 3.3.5. The prudent return of government in the 1990s 61 3.4. An in-depth analysis of developments in the Netherlands 63 3.4.1. The reactive missionaries of the 1940s 64 3.4.2. The caring technocrats between 1950 and 1963 69 3.4.3. The polarized spenders between 1964 and 1977 74 3.4.4. The efficient managers between 1978 and 1990 80 3.4.5. The new missionaries between 1990 and 2000 85 3.5. Conclusions 91 4 Generations of Policy Instruments 93 4.1. Introduction 93 4.2. Policy instruments within the policy-making process 95 4.3. A typology of policy instruments 97 4.4. Shifts in the use of policy instruments in OECD countries 104 4.4.1. Shifts in juridical instruments 104 4.4.2. Shifts in economic instruments 106 4.4.3. Shifts in organizational instruments 107 4.4.4. Shifts in communicative instruments 109 4.5. An in-depth analysis of developments in the Netherlands 109 4.5.1. Policy instruments from 1950 onwards 110 4.5.2. Policy instruments from 1963 onwards 111 4.5.3. Policy instruments from 1982 onwards 112 4.5.4. Policy instruments from 1994 onwards 116 4.6. Conclusions 118 5 The Changing Roles of Societal Groups 120 5.1. Introduction 120 5.2. Four interactive policy designs 121
Contents ix 5.3. Institutional changes regarding the role of societal groups 124 5.4. Illustrations of the four models in OECD countries 126 5.4.1. The governability model: citizens as target groups 127 5.4.2. The pluralist model: societal actors as interest groups 129 5.4.3. The public management model: societal actors as clients 133 5.4.4. The governance model: societal actors as partners 135 5.5. An in-depth analysis of developments in the Netherlands 137 5.5.1. The hierarchical 1950s 138 5.5.2. The democratization era 142 5.5.3. Improving service delivery: the citizen as a client 147 5.5.4. Towards a partnership 150 5.6. Conclusions 155 6 A Model of Fundamental Policy Change and a Final Test 158 6.1. Introduction 158 6.2. The research 160 6.3. The findings in light of the theory 162 6.3.1. The impact of previous policies 162 6.3.2. The impact of macro-level factors 165 6.3.3. The impact of meso-level factors 167 6.3.4. The impact of micro-level factors 168 6.4. A final test: developments after 2000 170 6.4.1. The success of preceding policies 170 6.4.2. The focus of previous policies 171 6.4.3. New problems and threats 172 6.4.4. The changing perception of urgent neglected problems 175 6.4.5. Elite replacement 176 6.4.6. Changing emphasis in the new policies 177 6.4.7. Toward a new policy generation 177 6.5. Finally 181 References 184 Index 195
Figures and Tables Figures Figure 2.1 The functions of action systems according to Parsons 32 Figure 2.2 The dynamics of relative attention for efficiency 36 Figure 3.1 Relative attention given to planning 58 Figure 3.2 Relative attention given to democracy 59 Figure 3.3 Relative attention given to efficiency 61 Figure 3.4 Relative attention given to governmental authority 62 Figure 3.5 Attention given to corporatism 67 Figure 3.6 Attention given to welfare 73 Figure 3.7 Attention given to democracy 79 Figure 3.8 Attention given to efficiency 81 Figure 3.9 Attention given to governmental authority 86 Figure 4.1 The restrictions on choosing among policy instruments 96 Figure 4.2 Four generations of policy instrument dominance 103 Figure 4.3 Social insurance coverage within first EU members 106 Figure 4.4 Governmental outlays 107 Figure 4.5 Growth in new laws regulating behaviour 110 Figure 4.6 Growth in regulations concerning financial transfers 112 Figure 4.7 Government service employment 113 Figure 4.8 Wages and salaries in the collective sector 114 Figure 4.9 Growth of regulations concerning efficiency 114 Figure 4.10 Dropped regulatory legislation 115 Figure 4.11 Regulations dropped 115 Figure 4.12 Tables Growth in new regulations concerning consultation 117 Table 1.1 Dilemmas in public policy-making 20 Table 1.2 Sequence of dominant values in public policies 26 Table 2.1 Assumptions underlying the relative attention paradigm 39 x
Figures and Tables xi Table 4.1 Instruments used out of internal orientation 108 Table 5.1 Four types of interaction between government and societal groups 122 Table 5.2 Indicators for different models of interactive policy-making 125 Table 6.1 Characteristics of policy generations 163
Foreword This book is about the explanation and prediction of the nature of change in public policy. It argues that what is neglected at present is likely to become dominant in the policies of the near future. This is the importance of neglect. This idea derives from economic, sociological and cultural theories and is applied to the changes in public policies in OECD countries from 1945 to 2002, with an intensive case-study of developments in the Netherlands up to 2007. Such longitudinal case studies are time-consuming and therefore rare, but the timeframe is necessary to corroborate the two central theses in this book. The first thesis is the core of a fundamental policy change is always concerned with a shift of attention toward those (aspects) of problems that were the most chronically neglected in the previous policy. That such change is simultaneously visible in all policy areas within a country forms the basis for my second thesis. This results in the idea of policy generations. Such policy generations adhere to one central value which is increasingly visible in the new policies in all policy areas. At the end of such a policy generation, the basic value dominates all policy areas. I argue that coherent and converging changes around core-values are visible in the policy goals, the use of specific policy instruments and the role of societal groups in the policy process. Hence, I expect that with the birth of a new policy generation, a convergence towards meeting the dominant value of that generation will be noticeable in the new policies in all policy areas. The two theses are empirically tested against the longitudinal case study. In analysing this case, many interesting facts and opinions came up about the developments occurring in this epoch. This alone made the study worthwhile. What made it fascinating, however, was that the more one examines the vast literature on policy developments, which is itself not based on the two theses, the more one becomes convinced that the theses are important in explaining and predicting the direction of policy change. This case study is about such changes in Europe, but the theory claims wider ramifications and might well explain policy change elsewhere. Although such analyses must be left for subsequent research, this book will reflect on the possibilities. In Chapter 1 I argue that scholars have come a long way in explaining policy change. Recent investigations have identified many factors xii
Foreword xiii and characteristics of actors that explain why fundamental policy change occurs and when it is likely to occur. However, we are still unable to predict the direction that the nature of the change goes. In this introductory chapter, I argue that research into this question is a feasible next step in the process of trying to understand policy change. Furthermore, I argue that in order to explain and predict the nature of policy change, one should not only investigate what is prioritized, but especially seek out what is neglected. We should not only analyse the contents of preceding policies, but rather, we should analyse the noncontents thereof. This chapter also addresses the normative implications of the theory (originally published as a conference paper for the Conference on Public Administration in the 21st Century in Macau in January 2004). In Chapter 2 I present the formal theory on policy change and the crucial role of neglect. The chapter addresses the socio-genesis of the theory from economic, sociological and cultural theories. It presents the axioms underlying the theory and the hypothesis derived from these axioms. What is crucial is that the means available to policy-makers are always less than needed in order to balance different demands. Therefore, one cannot address all demands placed on public policy-making simultaneously; instead, some aspects have to be emphasized while others are neglected. The central hypothesis is about identifying periods in which, irrespective of the policy field, the newly developed policies all emphasize the same aspect, that is, the one neglected most before. This makes it possible to discuss policy generations. (An adapted version of De Vries, 1999, first published in the Dutch journal Beleidswetenschap) I analyse the dynamics in policy goals from 1950 to 2000 in Chapter 3. The theory on policy generations is illustrated by analysing the development in public policies in the period between 1945 and 2000. Five policy generations are distinguished. The reactive missionaries just after the Second World War; the caring technocrats between 1951 and 1963; the polarized spenders between 1963 and 1980, the efficient managers from 1982 until 1994, and the new missionaries from 1994 on. I argue that each generation indeed emphasized one aspect of policy-making and neglected the other functions. Although each of the policy generations was successful in accomplishing what they intended to accomplish, they were severely criticized for neglecting what became dominant in the subsequent period. (An adapted version of De Vries, 2000) In Chapter 4 I examine the dynamics in the use of different policy instruments. This chapter argues that the five policy generations
xiv Foreword can also be found when looking at this aspect of policy-making. First, four basic policy instruments are described and discussed. These are judicial, economic, organizational and communicative instruments. I show that the dominant use of each of the four changes periodically and simultaneously with the goals distinguished in the previous chapter. Unlike the previous chapter, the data presented here are not based on literature review, but on a quantitative content analysis of the policy instruments used by the policy generations. (Adapted from De Vries, 2002) In Chapter 5 I analyse the development of public participation. The role of societal actors in policy-making processes changes periodically and simultaneously with the periodic change of policy goals and policy instruments. This chapter first distinguishes four types of interactive policy-making based on two dimensions. These dimensions concern the (dis)parity of power between policy-makers and societal groups, and the congruence or antagonism in interests between policy-makers and societal groups. On the basis of these dimensions, four roles for societal actors are distinguished, namely as target groups, as interest groups, as clients and as partners. I argue that these four roles became dominant in a successive manner between 1945 and 2000 thereby making it possible to distinguish policy generations in this respect as well. (Adapted from De Vries, 2005.) The final chapter contains a reflection on the theory and on the findings in the previous chapters and a comparison between them and the theory as presented in Chapter 2. I argue that the findings fit the theory and corroborate the hypotheses. Furthermore, I present a model with a specification of the factors deemed important in understanding fundamental policy change. Subsequently, I apply this model to the developments taking place in Europe and in the Netherlands after 2000. I argue that a sixth post-war policy generation can be identified which aims at long-term effectiveness, as predicted by the theory. I conclude this chapter by addressing still unanswered questions. The previous publications on which the chapters are based demonstrate that the contents were judged by anonymous referees. These referees made valuable comments, improving the contents of the previous articles and in this book the chapters. I wish to express my gratitude to them although their anonymity prevents me from mentioning their names. I also would like to thank the many generations of master s students at Radboud University who read this text even when it was not
Foreword xv yet finalised. The discussions with these students improved the text greatly. Furthermore, I wish to thank Julie Raadschelders for transforming the text into decent English, and simultaneously giving her comments on parts of the text that were still lacking clarity. Last but not least, the production of a book out of the numerous articles was made possible by a replacement grant by the NWO (Dutch Organization for Scientific Research) under grant number 450-04-002, correspondence number 2006/09870/MaGW, which the author received in 2004 and was able to use in the first half of 2006. Of course, as always, all this cooperation is no guarantee for the correctness of what is written. Neither is it an excuse for mistakes, folly and gaffes. The responsibility for everything this book lies solely with the author. Nijmegen, September 2009