FOR RELEASE: Tuesday, January 26, 1999, 4:00 P.M. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Andrew Kohut, Director Continued Public Inattention to Trial SUPPORT FOR CLINTON, BUT NOT FOR SOCIAL SECURITY FUNDS IN MARKET The American people had a mixed reaction to events in Washington last week. They continue to support Bill Clinton and all but ignore his Senate impeachment trial, which 88% describe as providing little that is new or interesting. But by a 52%-34% margin they also reject Clinton s surprise proposal to put some Social Security funds into the stock market. If Social Security funds do go into the stock market, the public would prefer the Republican approach of allowing workers to invest their own contributions. A 52% majority thinks this would work better than having Social Security funds invested in the stock market by an independent government board. But this is about the only good news for the GOP in the Pew Research Center s latest public opinion survey, conducted daily January 19-25, 1999 to gauge reaction to the State of the Union address and Senate impeachment trial. Political support for the president has remained strong, the Senate trial notwithstanding. Clinton s approval rating rose to 66% following his State of the Union Address, which was graded an A or B by 70% of those who saw the speech, despite reservations about elements of Clinton s Social Security proposal. Fully 63% of the public thinks Clinton should not be removed from office. And most (67%) say that they don t expect the Senate to vote him out. Even among Republicans, only 18% believe the Senate will oust Clinton. A majority of Americans (53%) do not think the Senate should call witnesses to testify in the impeachment trial. Not surprisingly, rank and file Republicans are much more supportive than are Democrats (63% vs. 21%). Independents are more closely split on the issue (41% favor and 51% oppose). Witnesses in Senate Trial? All Rep Dem Ind Should the Senate % % % % call witnesses? Yes 39 63 21 41 No 53 31 73 51 Don t know/refused 8 6 6 8 100 100 100 100 Number of Interviews: (1500) (379) (516) (499)
History, But Ho Hum Perceptions of too much partisanship along with firm public convictions about Clinton himself have led most Americans to tune out the trial. On average about 17% of Americans said they watched or listened to the live coverage on each day during the study period. The exception was Tuesday, January 19, the first day of the White House lawyers presentation, when fully 31% followed the live proceedings. Most Americans found little of interest in the news about the proceedings each day, but as many as one in five said that they were annoyed or angered by something they had heard in the news about the trial. Relatively few (24%) said they had discussed the impeachment with family or friends. When asked why they are not following the trial more closely, almost half (47%) say that they haven t paid more attention because the trial will have no impact on their assessment of Clinton. A substantial minority (41%) also say the partisan nature of the trial is a reason for tuning it out. Almost as many (36%) cite the improbability of Clinton s actual conviction. Inattention to politics in general and the insignificance of removal for conditions in the country were less often given as reasons for neglecting news of the trial. Fix Social Security While most Americans are skittish about investing Social Security funds in the stock market, support for using the federal budget surplus to help stabilize Social Security and Medicare has risen substantially in the past year. Half (50%) now favor using the surplus to reform the entitlement programs, rather than for a tax cut, other domestic programs, or to help pay off the national debt. Last January, just 32% said Social Security and Medicare should get the surplus funds first, while as many (33%) favored spending the money on other domestic programs. The Trial: Few Tune In Clinton defense Q&A/Debate Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat Mon Watched/Heard % % % % % % Coverage Today Yes 31 12 15 15 15 15 No 69 88 85 85 85 85 Don't Know * 0 0 * 0 * 100 100 100 100 100 100 Saw/Read/Heard Something New or Interesting Yes 7 6 15 16 11 8 No 90 93 85 84 89 90 Don't Know 3 1 0 * * 2 100 100 100 100 100 100 Saw/Read/Heard Something Made You Angry/Annoyed Yes 24 20 20 19 18 20 No 72 78 80 79 81 80 Don't Know 4 2 0 2 1 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 Talked to Family/Friends about Trial Today Yes 26 26 28 24 19 19 No 74 74 72 76 81 81 Don't Know 0 * 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 Number of Interviews: (250) (245) (255) (248)(250) (252) But the public rejects Clinton s State of the Union proposal to invest some Social Security funds in the stock market by a 52%-34% margin. What s more, the resistance to the proposal is bipartisan: while Republicans oppose the idea 59%-29%, Democrats also reject it, 51%-33%. Opposition is also high among senior citizens and Americans who are nearing retirement age. 2
ABOUT THIS SURVEY Results for the survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults, 18 years of age or older, during the period January 19-25, 1999. Approximately 250 interviews were conducted on each day of the tracking poll; no interviews were conducted Sunday, January 24, 1999. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. ************************************************************************ PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS SENATE IMPEACHMENT TRIAL NEWS INTEREST TRACKING POLL TOPLINE RESULTS January 19-25, 1999 N=1,500 Hello, I am calling for Princeton Survey Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey. We are conducting a telephone opinion survey for leading newspapers and TV stations around the country. I'd like to ask a few questions of the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home. [IF NO MALE, ASK: May I please speak with the oldest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home?] Q.1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Approve Disapprove Don't Know Mid-January, 1999 66 29 5=100 Mon., January 25 67 25 8=100 Sat., January 23 66 30 4=100 Fri., January 22 68 28 4=100 Thurs., January 21 64 35 1=100 Wed., January 20 65 28 7=100 Tues., January 19 64 31 5=100 January, 1999 63 30 7=100 Late December, 1998 71 27 2=100 Early December, 1998 61 32 7=100 November, 1998 65 29 6=100 September 21-22, 1998 62 33 5=100 September 19-20, 1998 55 36 9=100 Early September, 1998 61 33 6=100 3
Q.2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Approve Disapprove Don t Know Mid-January, 1999 36 51 13=100 Mon., January 25 33 54 13=100 Sat., January 23 35 53 12=100 Fri., January 22 37 53 10=100 Thurs., January 21 36 51 13=100 Wed., January 20 39 45 16=100 Tues., January 19 36 51 13=100 January, 1999 38 50 12=100 Late December, 1998 39 56 5=100 Early December, 1998 38 49 13=100 November, 1998 41 48 11=100 September 21-22, 1998 44 44 12=100 September 19-20, 1998 46 41 13=100 Early September, 1998 44 37 19=100 Q.3 Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? [READ AND ROTATE LIST] a.. Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL) Closely Closely Closely Closely DK The impeachment trial of President Clinton in the Senate Mid-January, 1999 22 37 26 14 1=100 Mon., January 25 20 40 26 13 1=100 Sat., January 23 19 45 26 9 1=100 Fri., January 22 21 33 27 18 1=100 Thurs., January 21 29 31 27 13 0=100 Wed., January 20 23 35 26 15 *=100 Tues., January 19 23 36 24 15 2=100 January, 1999 27 37 21 14 1=100 Late December, 1998 1 34 37 22 7 *=100 Jan. 19-20 ONLY (N=495) b. The massacre of 45 people in Kosovo, Serbia Mid-January, 1999 9 21 24 44 2=100 Wed., January 20 11 19 27 42 1=100 Tues., January 19 8 23 21 45 3=100 March, 1998 2 5 12 26 55 2=100 1 2 In Late December the story was listed as The debate and vote in the House of Representatives to impeach Bill Clinton. In March 1998 the story was listed as Ethnic conflict in Kosovo, Serbia. 4
Q.3 CONTINUED... Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL) Closely Closely Closely Closely DK Jan. 21-25 ONLY (N=999) c. President Clinton's proposal to use the budget surplus to pay for Social Security in the future Mid-January, 1999 21 33 27 18 1=100 Mon., January 25 22 32 28 17 1=100 Sat., January 23 15 38 30 15 2=100 Fri., January 22 19 37 25 19 0=100 Thurs., January 21 29 25 28 18 0=100 Early February, 1998 3 24 38 26 12 *=100 January, 1998 4 18 27 29 25 1=100 February, 1997 23 26 22 28 1=100 January, 1997 5 29 35 22 13 1=100 QUESTIONS S.1 AND S.2 ASKED WEDNESDAY, JAN. 20 THRU THURSDAY JAN. 21 (N=500) On another subject... S.1 Did you happen to watch all or part of President Clinton s State of the Union speech [Tuesday night]? Yes, all Yes, part No DK Mid-January, 1999 24 35 39 2=100 - - - January, 1994 23 33 44 0=100 QUESTION S.2 ONLY ASKED OF RESPONDENTS WHO ANSWERED YES IN S.1: [N=302] S.2 What grade would you give to President Clinton for his speech A, B, C, D, or Fail? A B C D Fail DK Mid-January, 1999 34 36 15 7 5 3=100 - - - January, 1994 24 45 21 5 3 2=100 3 4 5 In early February 1998 the story was listed as "Clinton's proposal to deal with the problem with Social Security." This month and February 1997 the story was listed as "The debate about how to reform the Social Security System." This month the story was listed as "Proposals to reform the Social Security System." 5
On another subject... Q.4 Based on what you know at this point, do you think that Bill Clinton should or should not be removed from office? Should Should not DK/ be removed be removed Refused Mid-January, 1999 33 63 4=100 Mon., January 25 27 67 6=100 Sat., January 23 34 63 3=100 Fri., January 22 30 64 6=100 Thurs., January 21 38 59 3=100 Wed., January 20 36 59 5=100 Tues., January 19 36 63 1=100 January, 1999 32 64 4=100 Late December, 1998 31 65 4=100 Early December, 1998 6 29 67 4=100 November, 1998 23 70 7=100 Late October, 1998 (RV) 28 66 6=100 Early October, 1998 (RV) 32 62 6=100 Q.5 Apart from your OWN opinion, what do you think WILL happen in the Senate trial do you think the Senate will or will not vote to remove Clinton from office? Will vote Will not DK/ to remove vote to remove Refused Mid-January, 1999 21 67 12=100 Mon., January 25 21 67 12=100 Sat., January 23 21 69 10=100 Fri., January 22 20 72 8=100 Thurs., January 21 23 68 9=100 Wed., January 20 20 64 16=100 Tues., January 19 23 60 17=100 Q.6 After both sides have presented their case, do you think the Senate should or should not call witnesses to testify in the impeachment trial? Should call Should not call DK/ witnesses witnesses Refused Mid-January, 1999 39 53 8=100 Mon., January 25 36 58 6=100 Sat., January 23 42 53 5=100 Fri., January 22 38 54 8=100 Thurs., January 21 41 52 7=100 Wed., January 20 42 46 12=100 Tues., January 19 37 53 10=100 6 For early December 1998, November 1998 and October 1998 trend figures based on slightly different question, "Based on what you know at this point, do you think that Bill Clinton should or should not be impeached and removed from office?" 6
Q.7 So far, how much of the live coverage of the Senate impeachment trial have you watched (READ LIST)... Almost all A lot Some Hardly None DK/ of it of it of it any of it of it Refused Mid-January, 1999 7 14 36 25 17 1=100 Mon., January 25 4 10 44 28 14 0=100 Sat., January 23 5 17 36 28 14 0=100 Fri., January 22 9 11 36 25 19 0=100 Thurs., January 21 10 14 33 26 17 0=100 Wed., January 20 9 14 30 23 24 *=100 Tues., January 19 8 16 37 24 15 0=100 January, 1999 5 10 34 28 22 1=100 Q.8 Did you happen to watch or hear any of the live coverage of the trial TODAY? Yes No DK/Refused Mid-January, 1999 17 83 *=100 Mon., January 25 15 85 *=100 Sat., January 23 15 85 0=100 Fri., January 22 15 85 *=100 Thurs., January 21 15 85 0=100 Wed., January 20 12 88 0=100 Tues., January 19 31 69 *=100 Q.9 Did you talk to any friends, family, or coworkers about the impeachment trial TODAY? Yes No DK/Refused Mid-January, 1999 24 76 *=100 Mon., January 25 19 81 0=100 Sat., January 23 19 81 0=100 Fri., January 22 24 76 0=100 Thurs., January 21 28 72 0=100 Wed., January 20 26 74 *=100 Tues., January 19 26 74 0=100 ROTATE Q. 10 AND Q.11 Q.10 Did you see, read, or hear anything in the news about the impeachment trial today that you found new or interesting? (VOL) Yes No Don't follow trial DK/Refused Mid-January, 1999 11 88 * 1=100 Mon., January 25 8 90 1 1=100 Sat., January 23 11 89 0 *=100 Fri., January 22 16 84 * 0=100 Thurs., January 21 15 85 0 0=100 Wed., January 20 6 93 * 1=100 Tues., January 19 7 90 1 2=100 7
Q.11 Did you see, read, or hear anything in the news about the impeachment trial today that made you annoyed or angry? (VOL) Yes No Don't follow trial DK/Refused Mid-January, 1999 20 78 1 1=100 Mon., January 25 20 80 0 0=100 Sat., January 23 18 81 0 1=100 Fri., January 22 19 79 1 1=100 Thurs., January 21 20 80 0 0=100 Wed., January 20 20 78 * 2=100 Tues., January 19 24 72 2 2=100 ASKED TUESDAY, JAN. 19 THRU THURSDAY, JAN.21, ONLY (N=554) IF NOT FOLLOWING IMPEACHMENT TRIAL VERY CLOSELY (ANSWERED 2, 3, 4, OR 9 IN Q.3a), ASK: Q.12 We are interested in finding out why many people have not paid much attention to the impeachment trial of President Clinton. As I read a list, tell me if this reason applies to you, or not. First, (INSERT ITEM; ROTATE), is this a reason why you haven t paid more attention to the trial, or not? (How about...(insert NEXT ITEM), is this a reason why you haven t paid more attention, or not? Yes No, not Don t know/ A Reason A Reason Refused a. There s little chance Clinton will actually be removed from office Mid-January, 1999 36 60 4=100 b. It s not important to conditions in the country whether or not Clinton is removed from office Mid-January, 1999 26 69 5=100 c. The trial is too partisan Mid-January, 1999 41 52 7=100 d. The trial will not change your mind about Clinton Mid-January, 1999 47 51 2=100 e. You never pay attention to politics Mid-January, 1999 24 74 2=100 8
QUESTIONS 13 THRU 15 ASKED JAN. 22 - JAN 25 ONLY: ( N=749) Q.13 If it turns out that the federal government has a budget SURPLUS this year, in your opinion, which ONE of the following should be done with the available money? Should the money be used (ROTATE )... For a tax cut; to pay off the national debt more quickly; for increased spending on domestic programs such as health, education, and the environment; or to help make the Social Security and Medicare programs financially sound? (VOL) Tax National Domestic Social Security/ DK/ Cut Debt Programs Medicare Refused Mid-January, 1999 14 12 21 50 3=100 Early August, 1998 10 19 29 39 3=100 June, 1998 9 17 28 44 2=100 January, 1998 11 22 33 32 2=100 Q.14 Do you favor or oppose changing Social Security from a system where all the money in the fund is invested in government bonds to a system where some of the money is invested in the stock market? Favor Oppose DK/Refused Mid-January, 1999 34 52 14=100 Q.15 Which system would work best to have some of the Social Security funds invested in the stock market by an independent government board, OR to have some of the Social Security funds invested by individual workers on their own? Independent Workers board invest own (VOL) (VOL) DK/ invest money contributions Neither Both Refused Mid-January, 1999 26 52 10 1 11=100 9