Mexico Open Market Mexico is positioned as a gateway to a potential market of more than one billion consumers and 60% of world GDP. 12 Free Trade Agreements with 46 countries, and has recently signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership or CPTPP with 11 countries from 3 different continents (TPP-11). 32 Agreements for the Promotion and Reciprocal Protection of Investments with 33 countries. 9 agreements within the framework of the Latin American Integration Association. In addition, Mexico participates actively in multilateral and regional bodies and forums such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Mechanism (APEC), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Latin American Integration Association (LAIA).
NAFTA Region Commerce $350 Exports from MEX to NAFTA* $250 Mex Imports from NAFTA* $300 $250 $320 $200 $197 $200 $150 $150 500% 252% $100 $100 $50 $- $53 1994 2015 $50 $- $56 1994 2015 On average $2.6 billion dollars are traded every day among the members of NAFTA Source: American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico. *Figures in billion dollars.
Fruits and Vegetables Cereals Industrial Machinery Natural and Processed Gas Telecommunicati on Equipment Plastic Manufactures Automotive Oil and byproducts Commercial Balance 2017 USA US Trade Balance (billions USD) 2017 Others Otros HongKong Hong Kong Déficit Deficit (-) (-) Superavit Surplus (+) -27 32 US-Mexico Balance (billions USD) 2017 MX: Surplus USA: Deficit 63 MX: Deficit USA: Surplus 10 Holanda Holland 24 UAE Emirates Arabs 16 16 7 Irlanda Ireland -38 México Mexico -71 14 4 Alemania Germany -64 Japón Euro Zona Japan Euro Zone -151-69 13 3 China China -375 Others 10 Source: US Census Bureau.
The Importance of the Automotive Industry in Mexico Main generator of foreign currency in the country, with a surplus trade balance for an amount of 70.8 billions dollars in 2017. Generates 3.3% of National GDP and 18.3% of manufacturing GDP. Over 1 out of every 3 dollars exported from the manufacturing sector corresponds to automotive products.
The Importance of the Automotive Industry in Mexico 7th vehicle manufacturer in the world and 1st in Latin America. 4th global exporter of light vehicles. 5th world auto parts exporter and 1st supplier to the United States market. The Automotive Industry is the second GDP generator, after the Food Industry. It generates 750 thousand direct jobs, representing 15% of manufacturing employment.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Millions Auto Production and Exports Production Exports 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Production growth from 1 million in 1994 to 3.8 millions in 2017 a 244% growth rate. We expect to reach 5 millions by 2020. Exports grew 474% since 1994 from 567 thousand to 3.25 millions in 2017, 75% exported to US and 9% to Canada. Source: AMDA with information from AMIA and OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers). 7
Billion Dollars Currency Generator Foreign Currency Income to Mexico jan-dec 2013 jan-dec 2014 jan-dec 2015 jan-dec 2016 Exports from Automotive Products Remittances Export of Oil Products Income from Tourism In 2016, the exports of the automotive industry were 6 times exports of oil products. Without Automotive products the National Trade Balance would be negative for $81 billion dollars. Source: AMIA with information from Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, INEGI.
Car Brands in the Mexican Market 1994 2018 From 12 brands in 1994 to more than 40 9
Automotive O.E.M. in Mexico Manufacturing Facilities Before NAFTA there were only 11 OEM for light vehicles production in Mexico. In 23 years we have doubled this number. Only in 2017, $6.9 billion dollars were captured in Foreign Direct Investment for the Automotive Industry. During the current Mexican Federal Administration (Enrique Peña Nieto) the Foreign Direct Investment for the industry is above $26 billion dollars.
Value of Vehicle Production 55.4% National Production 28.8% 26.6% 44.6% Value Added National Supplies Imported Supplies Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, INEGI.
For every dollar that Mexico exports to the United States, we incorporate 40 cents of American resources, for every dollar that China exports to the US, it includes 4 cents of American resources. Jaime Serra Puche To the International Relations Committee of the US Senate on March 14, 2018
NAFTA Vehicle Production 2016 Mexico 7% (1.12 million) 1994 Canada 15% (2.32 million) Mexico 20% (3.6 million) Canada 13% (2.37 million) USA 67% (12.2 million) USA 78% (12.24 million) NAFTA: 15.68 million vehicles NAFTA: 18.17 million vehicles Since NAFTA, vehicle production has grown 16% Generating 19% of world production Source: AMDA with information from AMIA and OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers).
NAFTA Light Vehicles Sales Mexico 6% (0.62million) 1994 Mexico 8% (1.6 million) Canada 9% (1.9 million) 2016 Canada 11% (1.25 million) USA 83% (8.9 million) Growth 52% 97% 158% USA 83% (17.5 million) NAFTA: 10.87 million vehicles NAFTA: 21.02 million vehicles Since NAFTA, vehicle sales has grown 93.4% 22.6% of world sales are in NAFTA region Source: AMDA with information from AMIA and OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers).
U.S. Automotive Trade The United States imports more cars from the NAFTA region than from Japan, Germany, Korea, China and the United Kingdom combined. And exports more than China, Germany, Saudi Arabia and United Kingdom combined. 2016 USA Imports 2016 USA Exports Germany South Korea 9% 12% Others 12% 21% Japan NAFTA Region 47% Saudi Arabia Others 28% 5% Germany 10% 13% China NAFTA Region 45% Source: AMDA with information from AMIA and USITC.
Auto Parts Trade 76.5% of auto parts exports from the United States are sent to the NAFTA region. Mexico produces $87 Billion dollars in Auto Parts, exports $65 billion to the US and $3 billion to Canada that is 80%, and imports $25 billion from the US and half a billion from Canada. 2016 USA Imports 2016 USA Exports South Korea Japan Others 6% 10% 18% NAFTA Region 55% United Kingdom China Others 2% 4% 18% NAFTA Region 12% China 77% Source: AMDA with information from AMIA, USITC and INA.
Rules of Origin The Trump administration has proposed that the percentage of North American content in vehicles made within the NAFTA zone be boosted from 62.5 % to 85 %, and that 50 % U.S. content be required for autos made in Canada or Mexico that are destined for export to the United States. Source: Actinver Research NAFTA Automotive: Can a Middle Ground Be Reached? November 30 th, 2017.
Rules of Origin Regional content per OEM: Mexico Regional Content Mexico Content US / Canada Content Light Truck 78% 43% 35% American OEM'S 89% 51% 38% Asian / European OEM's 68% 33% 34% Light Vehicle 62% 50% 13% American OEM'S 68% 46% 22% Asian / European OEM's 79% 63% 16% General 67% 48% 19% Source: Actinver Research NAFTA Automotive: Can a Middle Ground Be Reached? November 30 th, 2017. With information from National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA (Part 583 American Automobile Labeling Act Reports).
Rules of Origin The proposal for an 85% is difficult to achieve considering the 67% average for Mexico auto exports, which already reflects a high level of integration. However, a middle ground is within reach, considering a period for adaptation in order to avoid short term price increase. Considering the current U.S. parts content for Mexico-assembled vehicles (19% on average, and 13% for sedans), it is our view that the U.S. negotiation team would most likely have to reconsider their intention for 50% local content.
No Agreement In the case that no agreement is reached, WTO regulated tariffs would enter into effect, 2.5% for light vehicles and 25% for light trucks. However the resulting uncertainty for the auto industry would restrict the investment, at least for Mexico in the short and mid term. Boston Consulting group has estimated a rise in vehicle prices in the U.S. in this scenario ranging from $650 to $1200 per vehicle.
Conclusion This is a negotiation process that will take time, above all this process should end with a win-win situation for the three countries. As you can see the Automotive Industry in North America has a very high level of integration. We look forward for free trade rather than protectionism, and this industry can be a deal breaker. We need to be proactive and innovative to reach a better agreement for the region.