Hispanics Rising 2010: An Overview of the Growing Power of America s Hispanic Community A Report of the 21 st Century America Project
Executive Summary Table of Contents Section 1: Our Changing Country: An Overview of The Changing Hispanic Population Section 2: The Hispanic Electorate Section 3: 2000-2004 General Elections: GOP Recognizes the Power of the Hispanic Electorate Section 4: 2005-2006 The GOP Makes a Strategic Blunder Section 5: Moving The Electoral Map: The Hispanic Belt Section 6: 2008 General Election: Democrats Seize the Hispanic Vote Section 7: 2009-2010: Continued Progress Challenges Remain Section 8: Post 2010: Hispanics and Reapportionment
Hispanics Rising: Executive Summary At 15% of the US population today, Hispanics are now America s largest minority group. Over time this fast-growing population will grow to almost 30 percent of the total US population, and will be the central driver of turning America into a majority-minority nation by 2050. This very rapid and profound population change is changing political alignments in the US. Early in this decade George W. Bush s remarkable success with this electorate was critical to both of his Presidential victories. In 2005, however, the national Republican Party repudiated successful Hispanic strategy championed by the Bush family, and adopted a much more anti-immigrant, anti-hispanic strategy that was instrumental in fueling the 2006 immigration rallies, and swinging Hispanics significantly to the Democrats. The 2008 cycle saw a continuation of this GOP narrative, and a Democratic Party embracing, tentatively, the new demographic realities of the 21st century and one of its most visible battlegrounds immigration reform. The Hispanic electorate stayed with Democrats: In six battleground states critical to the Electoral College - CO, FL, IN, NM, NV and VA increases in Hispanic turnout helped tip these states for Democrat. This significant swing of Latinos votes, was instrumental in electing Barack Obama to the White House. Data from this election cycle shows that the Hispanic community is still with Democrats and still wary of the GOP, but their intention to vote trails far below the national average. This is a change, a sign perhaps of their disappointment in Washington s continued inability to resolve the issue so close to their communities and their families immigration reform. How the two political parties manage this issue this year and in the years particularly given the fuel a new law in Arizona has added to the fire - will be critical to shaping the Hispanic population s future political path, and given their numbers, perhaps the nation itself.
Section 1: Our Changing Country: An Overview of The Changing Hispanic Population
The Center of Gravity of the United States is Moving The Center of Gravity of the United States is Becoming: More Southern and Western More Suburban and Exurban More Hispanic and Asian More Millennial More Aging Boomer U.S. Census Bureau Population Change and Distribution Census (2000)
The Largest Cities in America are Shifting from Northeast to South and West 100 Largest Cities Shift from Northeast to South and West 24 7 21 14 30 12 31 64 26 46 27 28 40 21 9 1850 1900 1950 2000 West South Midwest Northeast There has been a 70% Population Shift to the South and West U.S. Census Bureau Population of 100 Largest Cities and other Urban Places 1790-1990 (1998) U.S. Census Bureau Cities with 100,000 or More Population Ranked by Population (2000)
The U.S. Minority Population Hispanics are now our nation s largest minority. U.S. Census Population Estimates Table 10: Resident Population, by Race, Hispanic Origin, and Single Years of Age In Millions (2008)
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1980 Hispanic Population Boom: By 2050 Hispanics Will More than Double their Size 1990 2000 Latino 2010 2020 2030 US 2040 127M 438M 29% 2050 U.S. Population Projections 2005-2050 (2008): Table 2 Actual and Projected U.S. Population for Total Hispanic and Foreign Born Populations Under Alternative Immigration Scenarios: 1960-2050
Current Hispanic Population By State 3 WA OR CA 36.6% 36.6% NV 25.7% AL ID ID AZ UT UT AZ 30.1% 30.1% MT WY WY NM CO CO NM 44.9% 41.6% ND SD NE NE KS TX 36.5% KS OK OK TX 36.5% MN WI IA IL MO AR LA AR WI IL IN MI IN TN KY OH MS AL GA GA FL PA WV VA NC SC FL NY VT NY N H MA NJ VA NC ME CT RI DE MD NJ 1 5% Hispanic Pop 6 14% Hispanic Pop 15 24% Hispanic Pop 25 50% Hispanic Pop 3 Please see Appendix B for state by state breakdown of Hispanic population and voting age population U.S. Census State and County Quick Facts (2010)
8.25% 2.83% 3.45% Country of Origin 5.83% 5.10% Hispanic Demographics The Hispanic Population of the U.S. is young and increasingly more foreign born. More than one of every two people added to the nation s population between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008, was Hispanic. There were 1.5 million Hispanics added to the population during the period. According to the US Census Bureau, of all those living in the United States, 15% are Hispanic and approximately 12% speak some Spanish at home. This would indicate that about 80% of Hispanics speak Spanish at home. 8.99% 65.55% Country of Origin 65.5% Mexican 8.9% Puerto Rican 8.3% Central American 5.8% South American 5.1% Other Hispanic 3.5% Cuban 2.8 % Dominican Mexican Puerto Rican Cuban Dominican Central American South American Other Hispanic Diverse levels of Citizenship 14 million Hispanic citizens 11.9 million non-citizens 4.9 million naturalized citizens 306,000 born abroad to American parents Population Estimates (2009),Census Bureau American Community Survey (2007 and 2008 )
Section 2: The Hispanic Electorate
The Hispanic Electorate is Growing Rapidly In the Last Decade the Hispanic Eligible Voting Age Population has Increased by 50% (in millions) U.S. Census American Community Survey & EMR Exit Poll (2000, 2004 and 2008)
Hispanic Eligible Voters 2004-2010 Total Eligible Hispanic Voting Age Population U.S. American Community Survey (2004, 2006 and 2008)
Total Hispanic Voting Age Population By Country of Origin 2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey (2008)
Hispanic Citizens Reaching Voting Age By Election Cycle The Number of Eligible Voting Age Hispanics is Rapidly Increasing Every Year U.S. Census American Community Survey (2008)
Section 3: 2000-2004 General Elections: GOP Recognizes the Power of the Hispanic Electorate
President Bush Pioneered a Modern Hispanic Strategy for the GOP Remarks by Matthew Dowd, chief pollster to President Bush: Republicans have to increase their percentage among blacks and certainly among Hispanics. Washington Post, 7/8/01 We can't survive as a party without getting more of the Hispanic vote. ChicagoTribune, 1/27/08 You can t start to campaign in September for the general election among Hispanics. They are very frustrated with Bush and the Republicans, so McCain has a bigger hurdle to overcome. New York Times 10/22/08 "...the fact (is) that the Latino vote in this country is the fastest-growing demographic of the electorate -- it's grown 400 percent in the last 20 years. Wall Street Journal, 4/3/06
President Bush s Team Invested Heavily in Hispanic Media In 2000 Governor George Bush s campaign outspent Vice President Al Gore on Spanish-language media $2,274,000 to $960,000. From its inception, the Bush campaign promised an unprecedented Hispanic outreach program and an intention to run historic amounts of Spanish language television ads in key Hispanic states. In a decision that ultimately may have won Bush the presidency, his campaign and the RNC heavily targeted the Spanish-language television stations in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando, and Tampa as part of an aggressive strategy to win the state of Florida. The entire team of top-level Hispanic media advisers to the Gore campaign and the DNC believed that the Gore campaign had not put a high enough priority on the Hispanic Campaign, according to interviews with staff members and consultants. It was the key losing factor, We think that if we had been stronger in Miami we would have won Florida. We could have picked up those thousand votes very easily. -Pablo Izquierdo, Account Supervisor EMM Creative, the media firm responsible for Gore s Spanish language media Advertisements The Hispanic Voter Project: The Hispanic Priority: The Spanish Language Television Battle for the Hispanic Vote in the 2000 Election (2003)
Total Spanish-Language TV Spending by Presidential General Election Candidates in 2000 Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University (2003)
Total Spanish-Language TV Spending by Presidential General Election Candidates in 2004 Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University (2006)
President Bush s Hispanic Strategy Yielded Results Percentage of Hispanic Vote General Elections 1996-2004 2004 40% 59% 2000 35% 62% 1996 21% 73% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Democrat Republican CNN-EMR Exit Polls (1996,2000 and 2004)
General Election Results in Four Heavily Hispanic States 2004 CNN EMR Exit Polls (2004)
Section 4: 2005-2006 The GOP Makes a Strategic Blunder
GOP Rejects President Bush Hispanic Strategy Adopts Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric The Sensenbrenner bill passed by the House in 2005 calls for making all undocumented immigrants felons. In 2006, this bill led to huge marches, the largest civic demonstrations in the United States in this generation GOP House leader John Boehner refused to take up the McCain-Kennedy bill that passed a Republican controlled Senate with 62 votes including 22 Republicans In more than a dozen states, the GOP ran ads comparing Mexican immigrants to Islamic terrorists. http://youtube.com/watch?v=ajvdaligfbi
Hispanics Understood the New Political Reality 5% 2% 3% 3% 8% 15% 21% 37% Immigration Discrimination Unemployment Not Sure/ No Response Education Economy Lack of Opportunities Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% What is the Most Important Problem Facing US Hispanics? Hispanic Voters NDN Political Fund/Latin Insight Poll (March, 2006)
The 2006 Immigration Debate Encouraged Electoral Participation Among Immigrant Voters 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase Intention 54% Has No Impact 33% 9% 5% Decreases Intention Not Sure/ No Response How Does the Debate on Immigration Affect Your Intention to Vote in the Next Election? Immigrant Voters NDN Political Fund/Latin Insights Poll (March, 2006)
The GOP s Anti-Immigrant Strategy was a Political Disaster Effects on Hispanic Electorate Took away one of the GOP s most important new tools Spanish-language media Alienated the fastest-growing part of the American electorate the ever-growing Hispanic population Reinforced the Democratic argument that Republicans were incapable of tackling the tough problems facing the nation Nativism s Electoral Flop, bashers of illegal immigration are failing at the polls. Washington Post2/14/08
And in 2006 Hispanics Fled the GOP A Dramatic Reversal 2006 30% 69% 2004 40% 59% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Republican candidate Democratic candidate
The GOP s Response to the Election of 2006? Appoint a Bilingual Hispanic Immigrant to be RNC Chair Former RNC Chairman Mel Martinez
Anti-Immigrant Strategy Prevails In GOP Post 2006 Elections GOP Continue to Alienate Hispanics Republicans defeated the 2007 Senate immigration bill. The Department of Homeland Security No match program, has significant, negative impact on Hispanic families. Under scrutiny from his own party U.S. Senator Mel Martinez resigned as RNC Chair less than a year after assuming the position. In the 2008 Primary Tom Tancredo, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee ran ads attacking Hispanic immigrants. Senator John McCain withdrew support of comprehensive immigration reform.
Section 5: Moving The Electoral Map: The Hispanic Belt
The Core Democratic and Republican States Core from 1996-2004 Election Cycles: WA OR CA NV AL ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI MI IA IL IN OH MO KY TN AR MS AL GA LA PA WV VA NY VT N H MA ME NC SC CT DE MD FL NJ RI 248 Democrat 135 Republican 155 Neutral Electoral Count is for 2008 Values
The Core Democratic States Solid Electoral Count over Four Cycles 248 Core Democratic Electoral Votes WA OR CA NV ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI MI IA IL IN OH MO KY TN AR MS AL GA LA PA WV VA NY VT N H MA ME NC SC CT FL DE MD NJ RI Democrats won 17 states, equaling 248 Electoral College votes ormore in 4 consecutive Presidential Elections. Electoral Count is for 2008 Values
The Core Democratic States and Southwest Electoral count 248 Democrat + 29 Southwest = 277 Total WA OR CA NV ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI MI IA IL IN OH MO KY TN AR MS AL GA LA PA WV VA NY VT N H MA ME NC SC CT FL DE MD NJ RI Winning AZ (10 Votes), CO (9 Votes), NM and NV (5 Votes each) in2008 (an additional 29 Electoral Votes) gives the Democrats 277 Electoral Votes. Electoral Count is for 2008 values
The Core Democratic and Hispanic States Electoral count: 248 Democrat + 56 Hispanic Democrats = 304 Total WA OR CA NV ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI MI IA IL IN OH MO KY TN AR MS AL GA LA PA WV VA NC SC NY VT N H MA ME RI CT DE FL MD NJ Adding Florida s additional 27 Electoral Votes gives Democrats 275. Together, these five Hispanic Rich states put Democrats at 304, even without Ohio. Electoral Count is for 2008 value
Section 6: 2008 General Election: Democrats Seize the Hispanic Vote
Caution from Prominent Republicans I am worried. You cannot ignore the aspirations of the fastest-growing minority in America. Karl Rove, Deputy Chief of Staff and senior advisor to President George W. Bush, aboard Air Force One 8/13/07 At least five swing states that Bush carried in 2004 are rich in Hispanic voters -Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida. Bush won Nevada by just over 20,000 votes. A substantial shift of Hispanic voters toward the Democrats in these states could make the national political map unwinnable for Republicans... Some in the party seem pleased. They should be terrified.michael Gerson, President George W. Bush's former chief speechwriter and senior policy advisor, Washington Post 9/19/2007
During the GOP Primary John McCain Abandoned Latinos [During the 2007 primary season], when McCain was taking a pounding from his party's right wing for supporting immigration reform, he virtually disappeared as Senate Democrats and Republicans tried to hash out a compromise immigration bill. Citing a saying in Spanish, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), co Between that which you say and that which you do, there is a biggulf. Washington Post, 2/20/07 http://youtube.com/watch?v=pgvfkicnroo
McCain Turned his Back on Immigration Reform What McCain is saying has changed. Whereas once he firmly said that no immigration legislation could work unless it twinned tougher border enforcement with a guestworker program and a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, he now maintains that sealing the border must come first In a closed-door meeting with House Republicans last week, he again assured conservatives he had gotten the message. He had been beaten up badly on the immigration issue, participants said he told them... When they went to him and said he had to back a [no same-sex] marriage amendment, he said no. When they said campaign finance reform, he said no. When they said torture, he said no," "On this one, he didn't wait. He said yes. Everybody gets this." said Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.) who worked with McCain on immigration legislation. The Washington Post, 2/20/2008
Obama Campaign Ran the Most Significant Hispanic Out Reach Program Ever Un Mensaje Personal http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8-k-hwcyc8 40
Hispanic Voter Participation Increased in 2008 2004 122 millionvotes were cast in the general election. An estimated 16.5 million Hispanics were eligible to vote. 9.7 million Hispanics voted. Hispanics made up 8% of the national electorate. 2008 125 million votes were cast in the general election. An estimated 19.3 million Hispanics were eligible to vote. 11.7 million Hispanics voted. Hispanics made up 9%of the national electorate. NDN Research (Total Registered) EMR Exit Poll (2008 and 2004)
Obama Takes Advantage of the Republican Stumble Makes Huge Gains with Hispanics In 2004 President Bush won 40% of the Hispanic vote the highest share won by any Republican. Since 2004, Democrats have invested much more time and money in pursuing the Hispanic vote by targeting the regions in which they live. Nevada was chosen as the second caucus state in the nation. The Democratic Convention was in Denver. The Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee budgeted $20 million on a grassroots organizing and advertising effort aimed at shoring up the support of Hispanics. CNN EMR Election Poll (2008) 42
Hispanic Voter Turnout Soars From 2000 to 2008 Hispanics as a Percent of National Vote CNN EMR-CNN Exit Polls (2000, 2004 and 2008)
Hispanic Vote General Election In Millions In 2008 Obama significantly increased the Democratic share of the Hispanic vote from 2004. CNN-EMR (2004 & 2008)
Hispanics Fled the GOP in 2008 As Democrats Made Huge Gains Among this Population CNN-EMR Exit Polls (2000, 2004 2008)
2008 Hispanic Vote General Election CNN - EMR Exit Poll (2008)
2008 Electoral Map WA OR CA NV ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI MI IA IL IN OH MO KY TN AR MS AL GA LA PA WV VA NY VT N H MA ME NC SC RI CT FL DE MD NJ Republicans were denied all 3 of the highly Hispanic swing Southwestern states. McCain also lost Florida. The degradation of the GOP brand in the Hispanic community in the aftermath of the immigration debate proved to be disastrous in these important swing states. 4 4 Please see Appendix B for more information on the breakdown of the Hispanic Electorate in the 2008 and 2004 elections Electoral count is for 2008 values
Hispanic Electorate by State 2008 - Percentage of The General Election 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 41% 20% 18% 16% 15% 14% 13% 9% 7% 6% New Texas California Arizona Nevada Florida Colorado New Illinois New York EMR Exit Poll (2008)
2008 Hispanic Vote Performance - Age 40 35 30 34 33 29 37 25 22 20 15 10 18 16 11 5 0 Age 18-29 Age 30-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+ Total Hispanic 2008 EMR National Election Poll
2004-2008 Hispanic Turnout Democratic Performance 80 70 60 68 60 56 53 61 57 76 69 67 50 44 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2008 Colorado Florida Nevada New Mexico Total 2008-2004 EMR National Election Poll`
2004-2008 Hispanic Turnout Republican Performance 60 56 50 40 30 20 30 39 44 44 38 42 22 30 31 10 0 2004 2008 Colorado Florida Nevada New Mexico Total 2008-2004 EMR National Election Poll`
2004-2008 Hispanic Turnout Democratic Partisan Shift 40 30 27 33 27 27 20 10 0-10 2008-20 Colorado -15 Florida Nevada New Mexico Total 2008-2004 EMR National Election Poll`
Section 7: 2009-2010: Continued Progress Challenges Remain
The Triumph of Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor Soaring Hispanic Population will Have a Political Impact The largest and fastest-growing minority group finds itself in an anomalous position this year. In some respects, its stature has never been higher, with the Supreme Court appointment of Sonia Sotomayor signaling that one more historic barrier has fallen to the talent and ambition of the Spanishspeaking community. David Broder, Washington Post, 4/1/2010
Record Number of Hispanic Appointments The number of Hispanics nominated to senate confirmed positions exceeds that of any administration in history. The President has Latino advisors at every level in the White House including: Environmental Justice and stewardship-ken Salazar, Secretary of the Interior Economic and labor market reform: Hilda Solis, Secretary of Labor Director of the White House Office of Urban Affairs: Adolfo Carrión White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs:Cecilia Muñoz Education: Thelma Melendez, Assistant Secretary for Elementary & Secondary Education Civil rights:tom Perez, Assistant Attorney General at DOJ; John Trasviña, Assistant Secretary for Fair Housing, HUD
Meeting the Needs of the Hispanic Community: Legislative Accomplishments Extended unemployment (and modified eligibility in a way that dramatically benefits Latinos) for families in need. Provided support to states -saving thousands of jobs for teachers, firefighters, police officers and first responders. Developed housing initiatives to help families stay in their homes. Invested heavily in education from cradle to career so that everyone can have access to the American Dream. (Latino students make up nearly one in five public school students, but also have the highest drop out rate.)
Health Care: Incredibly Important to the Hispanic Community The health insurance reform law overwhelmingly benefits the Latino community perhaps more than any other: Latinos have the highest rate of uninsured and as many as 9 million Latinos without health insurance today will be eligible for coverage under the new health reform measures. Will help close health care disparities in part by lowering costs, expanding access, increasing quality of care, and making it easier for people to get preventive care -vital for a community that sees disproportionately greater numbers in terms of conditions like diabetes and heart disease.
The Department of Homeland Security Has Ramped Up Enforcement Straining Its Relationship with the Hispanic Community Report Faults Training of Local Officers in Immigration Enforcement Program: State and local police officers who enforce federal immigration laws are not adequately screened, trained or supervised, and the civil rights of the immigrants they deal with are not consistently protected, according to a report released Friday by the Department of Homeland Security inspector general. New York Times 4/2/2010 Latinos increasingly critical of Obama's record on immigration:. the Obama administration is finding its relationship with this largely Latino community complicated by its mixed and misunderstood record on immigration enforcement..deportations have increased by 5 percent, reaching 387,790 removals in fiscal year 2009. The increase in removals is due to a 19 percent rise in deportation of criminal immigrants, but two-thirds of those removed were still non-criminals, and the total reached a record high. Washington Post 3/20/2010 Immigration Activists Denounce Quota Memo: A coalition of immigrant rights groups Tuesday demanded the ouster of the nation's top immigration official, charging that underlings at Immigration and Customs Enforcement were thwarting Obama administration policy by setting a quota on deportations. "The reality is that ICE has gone rogue and needs to be reined in with dramatic action," said Deepak Bhargava, executive director of the Washington-based Center for Community Change. "The agency charged with enforcing the nation's immigration laws is systematically deceiving the president and the American public. Los Angeles Times 3/31/2010
Immigration Remains Important to the Hispanic Voting Block Bendixen & Amandi: National Hispanic Voter Study on Immigration Policy (March, 2009)
Immigration is Very Important to Hispanic Voters Even More So to Foreign Born Voters Bendixen & Amandi: National Hispanic Voter Study on Immigration Policy (March, 2009)
Naturalized Voters Vote at a Higher Rate Then American Born Voters U.S. Census Reported Voting and Registration Among Native and Naturalized Citizens, by Race and Hispanic Origin, and Region of Birth (March, 2009)
Native Born vs. Naturalized Citizen Voting Trends U.S. Census Reported Voting and Registration Among Native and Naturalized Citizens, by Race and Hispanic Origin, and Region of Birth (March,2009)
Immigrants Question Obama s Effectiveness on Immigration Bendixen & Amandi:National Hispanic Voter Study on Immigration Policy (March, 2009)
But Immigrants Still Trust President Obama But That Trust Does Not Necessarily Extend to Congress Bendixen & Amandi:National Hispanic Voter Study on Immigration Policy (March, 2009)
Immigrants Support Democrats And Are Still Wary of the GOP Bendixen & Amandi: National Hispanic Voter Study on Immigration Policy (March,
Section 8: Post 2010: Hispanics and Reapportionment
The Growth In the Hispanic Population is Having an Immediate Impact on the Electoral Map Hispanics Represent 51% of the population growth in the United States as a whole since 2000. This explosive population growth will have an immediate effect on congressional apportionment. In 2 of the states that will gain more than one seat, Texas and Arizona, Hispanics made up 59% of the overall population growth since 2000. Hispanics will make up a combined 77% of population growth in the 11 states projected to lose house seats. Census Data, Population Estimates (2008) Table D. Short Term Trend Model: Election Data Services, Inc. New Population Estimates Show Sight Changes for 2008 Congressional Appointment But Point to Major Changes for 2010. (2008)
Hispanics Will Play A Huge Roll in Determining Congressional Apportionment WA OR +1 ID NV+1 UT+1 CA AZ+2 MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX+4 MN IA MO AR LA WI MI IL PA Oh IN WV VA KY TN NC SC+1 MS AL GA+1 FL +1 NY VT N H MA DE MD CT ME NJ RI States Gaining a House Seat: Texas (+4), Arizona (+2), Florida (+1), Georgia (+1), Nevada (+1),Oregon (+1), South Carolina (+1), and Utah (+1) Table D. Short Term Trend Model: Election Data Services, Inc. New Population Estimates Show Sight Changes for 2008 Congressional Appointment But Point to Major Changes for 2010. (2008)
States Losing Seats Would Have Lost More Seats Without Hispanic Population Growth WA OR +1 CA NV+1 ID AZ+2 UT+1 MT WY NM CO ND SD NE KS TX+4 OK MN WI MI NY-1-1 IA-1 PA-1 OH-2 IL-1 IN WV MO VA KY TN NC AR SC+1 MS AL GA+1 LA -1 FL +1 VT N H MA DE MD CT ME 69 MA-1 RI NJ-1 States Losing a House Seat: Ohio (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Lousiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Missouri (-1), New Jersey (-1), New York (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1) Table D. Short Term Trend Model: Election Data Services, Inc. New Population Estimates Show Sight Changes for 2008 Congressional Appointment But Point to Major Changes for 2010. (2008)
Additional Information For more information visit www.ndn.org This presentation was prepared by Andres Ramirez, Kristian Ramos, Alicia Menendez, Sarah Sanchez and Simon Rosenberg. Special thanks to Sergio Bendixen, President, Bendixen & Associates, for his generous assistance with the presentation and his years of work with NDN, and Mark Hugo Lopez, Associate Director, Pew Hispanic Center, for his patience and guidance for this report.
Additional Resources 2008 Hispanic Turnout Report: http://ndn.org/hispanic/0214surveyfull.html Mother Jones article by Simon Rosenberg and Peter Leyden: http://www.ndn.org/advocacy/conservativechallenge/the-50-year-strategy.html 2006 Cuba Poll commissioned by NDN: http://www.ndn.org/hispanic/memos/cubapoll.html 2006 Election Memos by Simon Rosenberg: http://www.ndn.org/advocacy/conservativechallenge/makingsense.html
Appendices
Appendix B TOTAL VOTING AGE POPULATION/PERCENTAGE BY STATE % Hispanic Population Hispanic Population T.V.A Population % of Hispanic V.A. Population AL 2.90% 134,810 7,000 5.19% AK 6.10% 41,853 13,000 31.06% AZ 30.10% 1,955,630 796,000 40.70% AK 5.60% 159,525 20,000 12.54% CA 36.60% 13,457,397 5,193,000 38.59% CO 20.20% 997,062 380,000 38.11% CT 12.00% 419,391 191,000 45.54% DE 6.80% 59,093 19,000 32.15% D.C. 8.60% 51,124 18,000 35.21% FL 21.00% 3,845,069 1,988,000 51.70% GA 8.00% 777,244 234,000 30.11% HI 8.70% 112,320 45,000 40.06% ID 10.20% 155,827 86,000 55.19% IL 15.20% 1,967,121 671,000 34.11% IN 5.20% 332,225 102,000 30.70% IA 4.20% 126,453 31,000 24.52% KS 9.10% 255,409 76,000 29.76% KY 2.40% 101,981 17,000 16.67% LA 3.40% 148,463 58,000 39.07% ME 1.30% 16,814 15,000 89.21% MD 6.70% 375,830 145,000 38.58% MA 8.60% 556,897 193,000 34.66% MI 4.10% 413,827 147,000 35.52% MN 4.10% 216,574 68,000 31.40% % Hispanic Population Hispanic Population T.V.A. Population % of Hispanic V.A. Population MS 2.20% 65,798 15,000 22.80% MO 3.20% 189,700 50,000 26.36% MT 3.00% 28,804 11,000 38.19% NE 7.90% 140,498 47,000 33.45% NV 25.70% 668,527 228,000 34.10% NH 2.60% 34,676 14,000 40.37% NJ 16.30% 1,418,545 661,000 46.60% NM 44.90% 891,013 539,000 60.49% NY 16.70% 3,250,038 1,348,000 41.48% NC 7.40% 684,770 118,000 17.23% ND 2.10% 13,227 5,000 37.80% OH 2.60% 302,101 142,000 47.00% OK 7.60% 278,620 93,000 33.38% OR 11.00% 416,044 100,000 24.04% PA 4.80% 593,986 319,000 53.70% RI 11.60% 122,206 42,000 34.37% SC 4.10% 183,981 37,000 20.11% SD 2.60% 21,016 8,000 38.07% TN 3.70% 231,272 73,000 31.56% TX 36.50% 8,870,475 4,493,000 50.65% UT 12.00% 329,069 92,000 27.96% VE 1.40% 8,588 3,000 34.93% VA 6.80% 531,396 132,000 24.84% WA 9.80% 643,687 280,000 43.50% WV 1.10% 20,648 6,000 29.06% WI 5.10% 285,827 150,000 52.48% WY 7.70% 41,162 15,000 36.44% U.S. Census: Reported Voting and Registration of the Voting-Age Population, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States (2008) U.S. Census American Community Survey (2008)
Appendix C Hispanic Turnout General Election National Election Poll EMR (2004 and 2008)