Home in America: Immigrants and Housing Demand ULI Minnesota /Regional Council of Mayors 9 th Annual Housing Summit July 18, 2017 Lisa Sturtevant, PhD Senior Visiting Fellow ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing President Lisa Sturtevant & Associates, LLC 1
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Immigrants accounted for 30% of household growth in the US over the past 20 years Source: George Masnick, 11+ Million Undocumented Immigrants in the U.S. Could Be Important for the Housing Recovery, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2015. 3
But nearly all of the growth in households headed by someone under age 45 Source: George Masnick, 11+ Million Undocumented Immigrants in the U.S. Could Be Important for the Housing Recovery, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2015. 4
Housing Demand in the Region What will drive housing demand in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region? What happens if we don t have enough housing of the right types, in the right places, and at the right prices & rents? 5
What will drive housing demand? Worker population Non-worker population 6
Immigrants have been an important source of population growth. 4,000,000 Population Growth in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro Area 3,500,000 3,000,000 282,017 +32% 373,537 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 2,893,024 +9% 3,151,046 1,000,000 500,000 0 2006 2015 2006 2015 Total Population 25-to-44 Year Olds Native Born Foreign Born Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 and 2015 American Community Survey 7
And have been essential to sustaining the working age population 4,000,000 Population Growth in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro Area 3,500,000 3,000,000 282,017 +32% 373,537 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2,893,024 +9% 3,151,046 +30% 135,339 176,490-1% 808,101 803,918 2006 2015 2006 2015 Total Population 25-to-44 Year Olds Native Born Foreign Born Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 and 2015 American Community Survey 8
Characteristics of Immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Region Region of Birth Canada Other 13% Mexico Somalia Ethiopia Africa 21% Latin America 25% Asia 41% India Laos Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2014 American Community Survey, extracted from the 5-year 2010-2014 ACS public use microdata sample (PUMS) 9 file, September 2016
Characteristics of Immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Region 1980s 13% 1990s 27% Year of Arrival in the U.S. Before 1980 9% Since 2006 26% 2000-2005 23% +22,000 new foreign-born residents added in 2015 31% of Asian immigrants 30% of African immigrants 21% of Latin American immigrants 17% of other immigrants have arrived in the U.S. since 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2014 American Community Survey, extracted from the 5-year 2010-2014 ACS public use microdata sample (PUMS) 10 file, September 2016; 2014 and 2015 American Community Survey summary file
Foreign Born Characteristics of Immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Region Average Age of Head of Household Native Born 50.5 Latin American 39.4 Asian 42 African 43 Other 54.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Age in Years Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2014 American Community Survey, extracted from the 5-year 2010-2014 ACS public use microdata sample (PUMS) 11 file, September 2016
Foreign Born Characteristics of Immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Region Median Household Income (2014 $s) Native Born $68,600 Latin American $42,300 Asian $67,400 African $32,000 Other $63,000 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Household Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2014 American Community Survey, extracted from the 5-year 2010-2014 ACS public use microdata sample (PUMS) 12 file, September 2016
Places Immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Region Live Established High-End Suburb Economically Challenged Suburb Greenfield Lifestyle Suburb Stable Middle-Income Suburb Greenfield Value Suburb Urban 13
ULI/RCLCO Suburban Typology Source: RCLCO Suburban Atlas, http://www.rclco.com/suburb-atlas 14
Places Immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Region Live 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Urban Economically Challenged Suburb Native Born Stable Middle- Income Suburb Foreign Born Established High- Greenfield/Rural End Suburb Source: RCLCO Suburban Atlas, http://www.rclco.com/suburb-atlas, 2010-2014 American Community Survey summary file 15
Housing Characteristics of Immigrants Home Ownership 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Home Ownership Rate (2014) Native Born Latin American Asian African Foreign Born Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2014 American Community Survey, extracted from the 5-year 2010-2014 ACS public use microdata sample (PUMS) 16 file, September 2016
Housing Characteristics of Immigrants Single-Family 70% Living in Single-Family Detached Home (2014) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Native Born Latin American Asian African Foreign Born Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2014 American Community Survey, extracted from the 5-year 2010-2014 ACS public use microdata sample (PUMS) 17 file, September 2016
Immigrants have strong aspirations for single-family homeownership Key factors associated with single-family homeownership: Household income Length of time in the U.S. Region of origin 18
Nationally, there has been a shift in where immigrants are coming from 19
Housing Characteristics of Immigrants Suburbs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Living in the Suburbs (2014) Native Born Latin American Asian African Foreign Born Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2014 American Community Survey, extracted from the 5-year 2010-2014 ACS public use microdata sample (PUMS) 20 file, September 2016
The suburbs increasingly attract new immigrants from all backgrounds Household characteristics are not strongly correlated with the likelihood of living in the suburbs: Length of time in the US Household size Age Household income No consistent correlations with suburban residence 21
Key Takeaways from the research on immigrants & housing demand Immigration has been an important source of population growth, workforce growth and housing demand in regions across the country, particularly in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region. Immigrants have strong aspirations for single-family homeownership though incomes tend to be lower than for native born households. The suburbs are increasingly attracting new immigrants from all economic and cultural backgrounds, with demands for different housing types and prices/rents. Areas experiencing or expecting significant immigration should be proactive in accommodating new immigrants. 22
Areas experiencing significant immigration should accommodate new immigrants Immigrants are critical to the economic well-being of cities, suburbs and regions across the country. An influx of immigrants to a suburb may be followed by additional flows of migrants from the same country. Investments in housing, transportation, retail, recreational and cultural amenities, as well as social assistance and education programs are key. 23
Areas experiencing significant immigration should accommodate new immigrants Challenges to communities Lack of existing immigrant networks and institutions Insufficient government resources for immigrant services Potential opposition from existing residents Opportunities for communities Key segment of the demand for suburban housing Single-family homes currently occupied by Baby Boomers Population growth in declining suburbs New investment in suburban commercial centers 24
What happens if we don t have enough housing? Housing serves as a platform for individual and family well-being Economic selfsufficiency and upward mobility Student achievement and academic success Physical and mental health and well-being Housing is the basis for inclusive and diverse communities Equitable access to opportunities and services, regardless of race and socioeconomic status Communities in which everyone can prosper Housing supports sustainable local economic growth Housing opportunities to encourage people to both live and work in the community Short commutes, easier to attract and retain workers Communities that are world-class places to live, work and play 25
Housing supports sustainable local economic growth Hard data and anecdotes from businesses and workers demonstrate that more housing options: Makes it easier to attract and retain workers Helps people both live and work in the community, leading to shorter commutes and less traffic Reduces income segregation, which is associated with slower overall economic growth Broadens the tax base and diversifies economy 26
Home in America: Immigrants and Housing Demand Lisa Sturtevant, PhD Senior Visiting Fellow ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing Lisa.Sturtevant@uli.org 703-598-1220 27