THE CRUCIAL CHALLENGE OF THE MEDITERRANEAN Thank you very much for the invitation. It is an honor to discuss Mediterranean challenges in Germany, with such a distinguished audience, at the DGAP (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik). Why is there a crucial challenge of the Mediterranean? Well, because the Mediterranean is much more than Europe s southern boundary. It is rather the frontier of civilizations where Africa, Asia and Europe meet, in a vast, complex and plural history. And it is a crucial challenge because today s Mediterranean is at crossroads. It could become either the Unstable Sea or the Peaceful Sea, depending on our very actions during the next months and the next years. Let me begin to address this issue from the German perspective or, more precisely, from German philosophy. To get a glimpse of the significance of the Mediterranean, there is no better summary than the one provided by the 1
German philosopher Hegel in his Lectures on the philosophy of history, held almost two centuries ago: For Europe, Asia and Africa, the Mediterranean is a factor of unification and the centre of world history. Here we have Greece, the bright spot of history. Then Jerusalem, the centre of Judaism and Christianity, at South West Mecca and Medina are the birthplace of Muslim faith. Go West, and you find Delphi, Athens, and Rome, but also Alexandria and Carthage lie in the Mediterranean. Therefore, the Mediterranean sea is the heart of the Old World. It is its enabling condition, and its own life. Without the Mediterranean, it would be impossible to represent history. It would be like imagining ancient Rome or Athens without the forum, where everybody gather and meet. Of course, Hegel s words mean a lot to Italy. Italy occupies the centre of the Mediterranean, due to history and geography: our 8000 kilometres of shores are a very relevant feature of our territory. Therefore, the choice between Mediterranean instability and Mediterranean peace and development is key for Italy s strategic interests. However, this is not simply an Italian challenge. 2
Let me summarize three Mediterranean issues that we face and we have to manage for the future of Europe, of Germany, and of our common prosperity. I believe they tell us that the Mediterranean is not only, as Hegel said, the heart of the Old World, but it is also the very heart of our New World. First of all, terrorism and instability. Consider the unprecedented overstretch of the current arc of crisis: starting from the Gulf of Guinea, it ends in Pakistan. North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and the Middle East are all epicentres of instability, where clashes and proxy wars inside Islam, between the Shia and the Sunni communities, but also inside the Sunni community, play a crucial role. And then we have Daesh. We face a new and vocal brand of terrorism, able to capitalize on the crisis of Mediterranean states and on the tensions between Muslim countries. The struggle against Daesh cannot be won only by military means. It requires a complex counter-strategy, which involves draining its financial resources, maintaining the unity of our coalition and being able to counter-attack at the cultural level, reaching out to Muslim 3
communities in our countries. And it has to do also with supporting state capacity and institutional building in our neighbourhood. *** Second, let me spend a few words on Africa. Africa s potential for the rest of the world is outstanding. For too long, we considered Africa simply an uncharted territory: in Latin, hic sunt leones. For many decades, we associated Africa with hunger, diseases, corrupt elites, tribalism and wars. In the new century, we have already experienced a different Africa: amid enduring problems, this is a continent with impressive growth rates, encouraging human development data, vital identities and a new role for its multilateral institutions, starting from the African Union. We should encourage growth in development projects, particularly in infrastructure, considering that the World Bank estimates a yearly infrastructure gap up to 93 billion dollars in Africa for the next decade, but also in innovation, considering the impact of the mobile revolution throughout the continent. For Germany and 4
Italy, Europe s first and second manufacturers, Africa s industrial future is particularly important. Let us not forget that the EU is a global power in cooperation for development. The European Union and its Member States are the top donors in the world for development aid. We should remind this in 2015, which is the European Year for Development and a crucial year for global development. Over the last decade, thanks to EU funding, almost 14 million pupils could go to primary school and more than 70 million people were linked to improved drinking water. In this environment, the Mediterranean can and should be a lasting bridge to Africa. *** Demography is the third crucial challenge of the Mediterranean and maybe it is also the most forwardlooking. What is happening, at the moment? On the one hand, humanitarian crises destabilize key countries in the Mediterranean basin, such as Lebanon and Jordan, therefore they are of utmost international concern, as the fate of refugees at Europe s doorstep. The death toll of 5
those who die while trying to make the crossing from the southern to the northern shore of the Mediterranean is a stain on the soul of Europe. On the other hand, we need a reality check beyond political partisanship: migration flows will be a permanent feature of Mediterranean politics, given the demographic imbalance between aging European countries and the young southern shore. Therefore, they should take place within a proper management and a comprehensive strategy, in a cooperative effort among countries of origin, transit and destination. Lasting solutions need lasting cooperation with countries of origin and transit. Italy and the EU are stepping up their engagement. For instance, we started an action-oriented dialogue on migration with Eastern African Countries: the Khartoum Process; and we boosted the dialogue with Countries of West, Central and Northern Africa (the Rabat Process). In this process, we need political awareness at the highest level, because there is no magic wand solution. Europe cannot afford uncertainty or delays. If we read media coverage of October 2013 and of April 2015, you 6
can find the same expression used for Mediterranean tragedies: a wake-up call. We don t need any more wake-up calls, we need to be wide awake : the stakes are high, both for the countries most exposed now, Italy and Greece, and for the whole of Europe. After the last tragedy occurred in April, Italy has a placed special effort in making our partners aware that migration needs to be a shared European responsibility. We pushed the EU to take urgent measures in the field of migration and international protection. The European Agenda on Migration can give substance to the principle of solidarity enshrined in the Treaty, and we hope that the proposal by the European Commission will be up to the challenge. But make no mistake: we still need to prove that Europe has awakened, step by step, both at the national and at the international level. The world is watching us. Summits and political agreements are important, but they are just the beginning. And Europe cannot stay on the sidelines. Europe cannot survive as a reluctant player, as a vetocracy on such fundamental issues. We are an 7
economic superpower and we aim to be a real political global player: therefore, we need real burden-sharing and we need mutual trust to face the political challenges of those who are mobilizing public opinion against EU and migration. *** Terrorism, Africa, demography: today s Mediterranean is in search of a new order, able to address properly these three issues. How can Europe be up to the challenge? I believe we need to be clear, first and foremost with ourselves. The outcome of a previous interventionist phase led predominantly by the US, which got rid of dictators such as Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi, is mixed at best. Historians will determine whether it was simply a wrong strategy from the beginning, the result of a misleading vision of exporting democracy, or whether the mistake was actually to intervene without a comprehensive strategy for the aftermath. Today s Libya is a prominent example of statelessness. Iraq is still under the threat of Daesh initiative. 8
In Syria, the civil war has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and to an enduring humanitarian crisis, involving millions of refugees in the past few years. Extremists always turn the lack of order to their advantage: while the State is absent, we face the clash of tribal identities and the danger of marginalized communities that could find solace in terrorism. We believe that there are no alternatives to a political solution in Libya. And we will continue to support, in close coordination with the International Community, all efforts for a political settlement. It is important that all players share the aim of achieving a compromise. Italy is ready to take a leading role within an UN-led international framework and at Libya s request to support a new unified Libyan Government in its path towards stability, democracy, security and prosperity. *** I tried to explain why the Mediterranean is a crucial challenge, for Italy, for Germany, and for the European project. And there are other very significant issues in the wider Mediterranean where Italy and Germany will work 9
closely together, such as Iran s reintegration in the global community, making all our efforts reassure Israel and Arab countries about the consequences of a nuclear deal. In order to address the Mediterranean in the near future, we need a clear political assessment of previous policies. I mentioned my assessment on the weaknesses of the US led interventionist strategy. I don t think that we can now easily blame President Obama s strategy. We need a new multilateral approach and we have to play a stronger role as EU and European countries. We cannot remain only consumers of security, a security provided by the US. Our contribution - as Italian and member of NATO and EU - should grow. We should acknowledge that there is a clear unbalance between the magnitude of the Mediterranean challenge and the institutional and political tools adopted by the European Union and by Member States during the last two decades. A new commitment for the Mediterranean - based on the 3 priorities I mentioned - is our commitment to the 10
future of Europe. I firmly believe that the southern borders of Europe matter to us not because they have something to do with old narratives of European conflicts or the Cold War. They rather embody the key risks to our societies in a new world and in a new balance of power: migrations, terrorism, lawlessness and statelessness, religious conflict, youth unemployment, poverty and inequality. At the same time, they embody this century s opportunities for our continent. Think about education, women s empowerment, research, logistics, trade, agriculture, climate change. The Mediterranean is still an unexploited market, and a new Mediterranean order will be able to spread stability in three continents, providing outstanding opportunities for our companies. Therefore, to get back to Hegel, today s Mediterranean is not only the forum of history of the Old World. It is also the place where Europe s future happens. I look forward to hearing your questions. Thank you 11