Middle East and Nrth Africa Summary The Palestinian Refugee Issue: Cmpensatin and Implementatin Mechanisms 18-19 December 2013 The views expressed in this dcument are the sle respnsibility f the authr(s) and d nt necessarily reflect the view f Chatham Huse, its staff, assciates r Cuncil. Chatham Huse is independent and wes n allegiance t any gvernment r t any plitical bdy. It des nt take institutinal psitins n plicy issues. This dcument is issued n the understanding that if any extract is used, the authr(s)/ speaker(s) and Chatham Huse shuld be credited, preferably with the date f the publicatin r details f the event. Where this dcument refers t r reprts statements made by speakers at an event every effrt has been made t prvide a fair representatin f their views and pinins, but the ultimate respnsibility fr accuracy lies with this dcument s authr(s). The published text f speeches and presentatins may differ frm delivery.
INTRODUCTION This is a summary f discussins that tk place during a ne-and-a-half day wrkshp n The Palestinian Refugee Issue: Cmpensatin and Implementatin Mechanisms, held n 18 and 19 December 2013 in Minster Lvell, Oxfrdshire. The participants were experts n the Palestinian refugee issue, acting in a persnal capacity, frm the Palestinian territries, Israel, the internatinal cmmunity and hst cuntries. Participants were divided int wrking grups and asked t design specific mechanisms fr Palestinian refugee cmpensatin f the type that might be included in a future Israeli Palestinian peace agreement. These were then cllectively stress-tested by the larger grup in rder t identify particular challenges that might arise. The wrkshp was hsted by the Chatham Huse Middle East and Nrth Africa Prgramme and was kindly funded by a grant frm the UK gvernment Cnflict Pl. The wrkshp frmed part f Chatham Huse's n-ging wrk n the reginal dimensins f the Palestinian refugee issue, knwn as the Minster Lvell Prcess, which aims at an infrmal and cmprehensive discussin f the Palestinian refugee issue, including the rle f hst cuntries and internatinal actrs. This wrkshp built n previus wrk abut an implementatin mechanism undertaken by Chatham Huse and the Internatinal Develpment Research Centre (IDRC) in cllabratin with the Freign and Cmmnwealth Office and the Eurpean Cmmissin in 2009 10. Key findings Sme f the main findings f the wrkshp include: Cmpensatin is an extremely cmplicated issue and its technical details are very imprtant. If eligibility, valuatin, inheritance laws, payment, and the structures and prcedures f an internatinal mechanism fund are nt prperly planned, then the prcess f cmpensatin is likely t encunter serius plitical and practical prblems. A prly designed and implemented cmpensatin regime culd actually undermine a brader peace agreement and prve t be a significant liability. The effects f a cmpensatin mechanism culd prve t be neutral at best, rather than serving as a psitive element t help sell ther parts f a brader refugee deal. Thrwing mney at the issue f past prperty seizures and frced displacement culd aggravate refugee grievances if nt accmpanied by ther measures. At least $30 billin in financing will be necessary fr a well-functining cmpensatin mechanism, but resurce limitatins mean this is an ambitius sum. At the Camp David negtiatins in 2000 the United States estimated that up t $20 billin in funding might be available fr cmpensatin fr bth Palestinian and Jewish refugees, and during the Taba refugee negtiatins in 2001 Israel appeared willing t cnsider a fixed-sum cntributin f arund $3 5 billin. www.chathamhuse.rg 1
The success f a cmpensatin mechanism hinges n als addressing nrmative issues f respnsibility, mral acknwledgment and recgnitin. Withut addressing these issues, anticipated levels f financial cmpensatin will be inadequate t prvide real clsure t the refugee issue. It is useful t cntinue t examine the cmplex nrmative, scial and technical aspects f the refugee issue, even if the current US-backed peace talks d nt succeed. Any eventual peace agreement will require attentin t the refugee issue, and plicy-relevant research and dialgue can help t infrm such an agreement, whenever it might cme. Over the last decade, discussin f Palestinian refugee cmpensatin, a tpic lng fraught with plitical sensitivities, has matured. While Palestinians had previusly feared that a fcus n cmpensatin might erde ther refugee rights, it is nw widely recgnized that reparatin is itself a right. Recent years have als seen a grwing amunt f plicy-relevant research n the tpic, including by Chatham Huse, the IDRC, the Internatinal Organizatin f Migratin, the BADIL Resurce Center fr Palestinian Residency & Refugee Rights, the Negtiatins Supprt Unit f the Palestinian Liberatin Organizatin and academics, amng thers. The meeting was held under the Chatham Huse Rule and the views expressed are thse f the participants. This dcument is intended t serve as an aide-mémire t thse wh tk part and t prvide a general summary f discussins fr thse wh did nt. The Chatham Huse Rule When a meeting, r part theref, is held under the Chatham Huse Rule, participants are free t use the infrmatin received, but neither the identity nr the affiliatin f the speaker(s), nr that f any ther participant, may be revealed. www.chathamhuse.rg 2
THE REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT The wrkshp began with a general discussin f the reginal and internatinal cntext. Participants nted that this has changed in significant ways in the past few years. First and mst immediate were the grwing humanitarian challenges and crises facing multiple Palestinian refugee cmmunities. Of the 540,000 Palestinians nrmally resident in Syria, ver half have been displaced by the civil war. Mre than 50,000 have fled t Lebann, a cuntry where mst Palestinian refugees already live under adverse scial cnditins. Arund 11,000 have fled t Jrdan, where the gvernment has sught t clse its brders t Palestinians. Thusands have fled further afield. Meanwhile in Gaza, Egypt s clsure f tunnels used fr smuggling, and cntinued Israeli restrictins n imprts and exprts have aggravated already pr ecnmic cnditins. The crises in Syria and Egypt crises have placed severe pressures n the United Natins Relief and Wrks Agency (UNRWA), which must deal with the humanitarian emergency, increasing insecurity in Syria and Lebann and a serius shrtfall in resurces prvided by the dnr cmmunity. While Palestinian refugees face perhaps their gravest humanitarian threat in mre than tw decades, many participants felt the Palestinian issue has becme less f a plitical pririty in the regin. Fr many cuntries, the Arab uprisings have generated n-ging dmestic and reginal plitical challenges that divert attentin frm the issue. Refugees and the peace prcess The escalating humanitarian crisis takes place against the backdrp f US-mediated Israeli Palestinian peace talks, which began in July 2013 and are intended t prduce a framewrk agreement between the parties by mid-2014. Mst participants felt that the talks had made very little prgress t date. Hwever, there was als recgnitin that the United States has pledged t intrduce new ideas and bridging prpsals. One participant emphasized the need fr it t address the technical issues in rder t advance negtiatins, and anther argued that plitical elements such as the 2014 mid-term electins culd shape US invlvement in negtiatins. It was further nted that previus runds f talks, such as the Annaplis prcess in 2007 08, had been left incnclusive and pen t cnflicting interpretatin. It was als nt clear t what extent the current Israeli gvernment felt bund by the negtiating psitins f its predecessrs. In the meantime, the facts n the grund are themselves changing, ntably in the frm f settlement cnstructin. Participants nted that if the US were t put frward psitins n the refugee issue, these culd have a lasting effect regardless f the success r failure f the current negtiating prcess. It was argued that frmulatins develped within the Clintn Parameters in 2000 and at the Taba negtiatins in 2001 are still cnsidered t be pssible building blcks fr any future deal. www.chathamhuse.rg 3
TECHNICAL DIMENSIONS OF COMPENSATION Participants delved int the technical details f cmpensatin, which include eligibility, types f lsses, valuatin, inheritance laws, payment, funding and implementatin mechanisms, including the structures and prcedures f an internatinal mechanism. Effrts were made t address Palestinian and Israeli perspectives, needs and cncerns, in additin t the technical requirements f making a deal wrk. It was nted that if a cmpensatin regime were t fail t address the needs f the parties, it culd prve plitically unsustainable. Equally, hwever, if it were t face serius technical and practical prblems in implementatin, it culd prve t be a liability and generate a backlash amng refugees against the whle peace prcess. Individual versus cllective cmpensatin Mst participants began the wrkshp with a strng preference fr individual cmpensatin t refugees, as ppsed t cllective cmpensatin thrugh payments t the Palestinian state, funding fr develpment prjects r the prvisin f public gds. After sme discussin, hwever, certain participants revised their preference, arguing that individual payments t refugees might be t lw and culd be perceived as insulting, rather than prviding mral and financial clsure. One participant cmmented that it might be necessary t rethink the paradigm f individualized cmpensatin. Discussin ver whether it wuld be mre beneficial t Palestinians t fund develpment prjects than t fast-track individual cmpensatin did nt arrive at cnsensus. It was nted that refugees have lng expected the latter, and that any srt f cllective cmpensatin might be mre difficult t sell. Sme participants suggested it culd be viable t instead create a rehabilitatin dnr fund fr urban upgrading in which cmpensatin funds are used t rebuild refugee cmmunities. Anther suggested that the decisin ught t be left t refugees themselves: an Israeli Palestinian agreement culd establish an internatinal fund fr cmpensatin, but its ultimate use culd be decided by a brader cnsultatin within the refugee cmmunity r even a referendum. Eligibility, types f lsses and payments There are tw main categries f eligibility fr cmpensatin: first, cmpensatin fr prperty lsses, and secnd, cmpensatin fr refugeehd, including lss f livelihd, lss f earnings and mral damages as a result f displacement. In a claims-based system, the riginal 1948 refugees, r their estate r descendants if deceased, wuld be eligible fr cmpensatin. Participants recmmended that the rules determining specifically which descendants wuld be eligible shuld be set ut in the agreement, and a preference was expressed fr using a self-cntained regime rather than applying different natinal inheritance laws. Claims-based systems f cmpensatin are likely t be especially www.chathamhuse.rg 4
cmplicated, given the need t trace back prperties, wnerships, and values ver 65 years and three generatins. Many agreed that fast-track cmpensatin (fr refugeehd) shuld be priritized, given the lnger time perid required fr slw-track cmpensatin (f prperty) wing t the latter s [?] need fr evidence-based prcedures and valuatin prcesses. Hwever, fr the fast-track system t be cnsidered the better ptin, mst Palestinians wuld have t benefit mre than they wuld frm the slw-track ptin, and the system wuld actually have t be fast. It was als argued that refugees shuld have the ptin t chse either fast-track r slw-track cmpensatin, with the frmer pssibly being a fixed sum and the slw track intended fr thse making larger prperty claims. Sme participants suggested implementing a system f per capita payments in rder t facilitate cmpensatin and reduce administrative csts. Under such a system, all refugees wuld receive cmpensatin, althugh it culd be weighted t favur surviving firstgeneratin refugees, fr example. Althugh discussin centred n cmpensatin fr Palestinian refugees, the issue f cmpensatin fr Jews frcibly displaced frm Arab cuntries was als raised. Mst participants agreed that legitimate claims exist against certain Arab cuntries, but that it is nt apprpriate t include these claims in Israeli Palestinian negtiatins, r t link them t cmpensating Palestinians fr their lsses and suffering. Sme participants did state, hwever, that failure t address the claims f Jews frm Arab cuntries culd prve plitically divisive in Israel. Valuatin There was debate ver whether valuatin f lsses is essential, r whether the parameters f cmpensatin are mre likely t be limited by available funding and an agreed Israeli lumpsum cntributin. Participants als expressed cncern that valuatin prcesses culd slw dwn and cmplicate the cmpensatin prcess. It was suggested that Israeli archives, alng with thse f UNRWA and the UN Cnciliatin Cmmissin fr Palestine, culd be used in the claims prcess t determine 1948 prperty wnership and values. Hwever, ne participant warned that since these recrds are incmplete, they might nt be sufficient t reslve all wnership and valuatin questins. Funding The level f resurces available t supprt a future refugee cmpensatin regime emerged as a majr issue. Nne f the mechanisms identified by the wrking grups were likely t functin well with less than $30 billin in funding. By cntrast, at the Camp David negtiatins in 2000 the US estimated that up t $20 billin might be available fr cmpensatin fr bth www.chathamhuse.rg 5
Palestinian and Jewish refugees, and during the Taba refugee negtiatins in 2001 Israel appeared willing t cnsider a fixed-sum cntributin f arund $3 5 billin. Several participants with cnsiderable experience in the dnr cmmunity warned that internatinal cntributins t a cmpensatin fund culd be limited. Very large transfers t Palestinian refugees wuld be likely t generate public and plitical backlash within dnr cuntries, especially if these tk the frm f cash transfers t individuals. Instead, dnrs wuld be mre willing t prvide supprt fr the csts f repatriatin and develpment. Sme participants warned that the level f funding likely t be available wuld simply nt meet refugees expectatins. In this case, a cmpensatin mechanism culd actually prve t be a lightning rd fr refugee discntent, rather than addressing past dispssessin r building supprt fr a peace agreement. Mst participants agreed that Israel shuld be the primary surce f the funding fr Palestinian refugee cmpensatin. While many als argued that this wuld need t be augmented by additinal dnr resurces, sme felt that Israel shuld bear sle respnsibility fr prperty lss cmpensatin, and that internatinal dnrs shuld finance ther elements f a slutin t the refugee issue. One participant suggested that the Israeli cntributin culd be increased frm what had previusly been discussed if funds culd be prvided ver a lnger perid, such as by allcating 1% f GDP ver ten years. The imprtance f raising the necessary funds fr a fast-track cmpensatin prcess was stressed. One participant argued that if insufficient funds are available, it wuld be better t satisfy a greater number f prer refugees than the much smaller number f refugees frm land-wning families. Hwever, even relatively small cmpensatin amunts can quickly add up t high figures, as anther participant nted: the sum f $1,000 per persn, which refugees wuld be likely t reject as grssly inadequate, already amunts t a ttal f $5 8 billin. A cncern was raised that withut having a sense f hw much funding is realistic, it is very difficult t gain clarity n the parameters f ptential cmpensatin mechanisms. A participant respnded that details abut funding are dependent upn the prspect f a brader agreement, and that dnrs will be reluctant t prvide funds if they are nt assured f the success f such an agreement. One participant argued that even withut a clear idea f funding, it is still pssible t elabrate different cmpensatin frmulas and devise ptins fr implementatin mechanisms and methdlgies. Implementatin mechanism (IM) The discussin n a mechanism t implement an agreement n refugee cmpensatin fcused n its rganizatinal structure, functins and prcedures. There was general agreement that it shuld have three types f rgans: a plicy bard, ne r mre decisinmaking bdies (cmmissins) and a secretariat. The plicy bard wuld supervise decisin- www.chathamhuse.rg 6
making and determine plicies which had nt been spelled ut in the agreement. Participants had differing views n membership f the plicy bard. Certain states r rganizatins were prpsed as members fr functinal reasns, while thers were put frward in rder t ensure plitically desirable representatin. Depending n the categries f claims and the type f cmpensatin envisaged, participants recmmended mdels with ne r mre cmmissins. All agreed n the need t have at least ne, and prbably mre than ne, specific cmmissin dedicated t expediting the reslutin f fast-track claims. Mst participants agreed that the mechanism itself shuld be self-standing, independent and based utside the Middle East, whereas the secretariat supprting the bard and the cmmissins shuld have reginal ffices. Hst cuntries Several participants stressed the need t include the hst cuntries in a cmpensatin mechanism. It was generally felt that this is mre likely t ccur thrugh dnr supprt fr develpment prjects, likely as part f a brader peace dividend fr supprting an agreement, rather than thrugh direct financial cmpensatin. It was als nted that hst cuntries stand t gain substantially frm cmpensatin payments made t refugees wh remain within hst-cuntry territry, whether thrugh taxatin r the injectin f additinal spending pwer and investment int the lcal ecnmy. www.chathamhuse.rg 7
SOCIAL EFFECTS Cmpensatin payments t Palestinian refugees wuld be likely t amunt t billins f dllars, making a significant impact n individuals, families, and cmmunities. There was cnsiderable discussin f the extent t which a cmpensatin regime shuld address these effects r even attempt t prmte certain scial and develpment utcmes. One participant stressed that prperty wnership in 1948 Palestine had been very unequal, and that claims-based cmpensatin systems might therefre reprduce histrical inequalities. Per capita, fast-track r categry systems wuld have a mre prgressive scial impact, since they wuld benefit smaller prperty wners mre than large nes. There was cnsiderable discussin f the ptential gendered effects f cmpensatin. Althugh per capita payments wuld benefit men and wmen equally, claims-based cmpensatin wuld be subject t inheritance law, which in many cuntries disadvantages wmen by allcating them a smaller share f an estate. A cmpensatin regime culd either include its wn rules fr distributing shares f a claim r leave it fr families t decide. Sme participants expressed cncern abut large cash payments, which they suggested wuld increase cnsumptin, cause inflatin and wuld ffer nthing in terms f ecnmic sustainability and stability. In Gaza, there might be limited pprtunities t invest this mney r build capital. Others nted that cash payments have becme an increasingly cmmn mechanism t alleviate pverty and strengthen cmmunities, and that inflatinary effects might be reduced by spreading payments ut ver a perid f time. It was als argued that refugees are in the best psitin t decide hw cmpensatin payments can be used t benefit themselves and their families. www.chathamhuse.rg 8
END OF CLAIMS, INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS AND NORMATIVE DIMENSIONS A key Israeli demand in previus negtiatins n the refugee issue has been that an agreement represent an end f claims and a definitive reslutin f the issue. A number f participants questined whether this is legal and mentined that even if an agreement were t stipulate an end t claims, individual refugees culd still pursue their rights in curts and ther frums. It wuld then depend n thse curts and frums whether r nt they wuld uphld the finality f the agreement. It was generally agreed that an agreement shuld attempt t reslve utstanding issues t the satisfactin f the tw parties as well as the large majrity f the refugees. Participants explred the rights f an individual refugee t pt ut f the cmpensatin mechanism. One participant endrsed this way f embedding individual rights int a cllective prcess, thereby giving the prcess greater flexibility and a mre cnstructive meaning. It was als nted that refugees wuld nt be assured f any viable alternative rute fr settling their claims if they chse t pt ut f a cmpensatin mechanism. Palestinian perspectives Participants agreed that the refugee issue cannt be reslved slely thrugh financial and technical slutins, and that, rather, the nrmative aspect is essential. Cmpensatin is imprtant nt nly fr its financial value, but even mre fr what it is seen t represent. It culd have psitive effects if Palestinian refugees saw it as representing Israeli and internatinal recgnitin f the wrngs and dispssessin that they have suffered, and it culd have quite negative effects if they regarded it as an attempt t bribe r buy them ff. One participant nted that what matters is the value and meaning that refugees themselves assign t the prcess, rather than what thers assert t be its symblic meaning. Hwever, the amunt f mney under discussin fr refugeehd payments culd be seen as insulting, rather than prviding mral and emtinal clsure. One participant argued that the amunts being cnsidered are little mre than the insurance payments he wuld expect if a car ran ver his cat, and anther participant stated that n amunt f mney wuld cmpensate fr the years f suffering frm displacement. It was added that refugees have primarily experienced humiliatin and indignity frm the cntinuing cnflict, and that therefre the bjective f cmpensatin shuld be t avid further humiliatin and t re-establish their dignity. One participant asked if a substitute fr the wrd cmpensatin culd be fund in the discussin f this prcess, since the wrd has the painful cnntatin f it being impssible t cmpensate fr 60 years f suffering. Participants agreed that, in the eyes f refugees, a cmpensatin mechanism wuld nt replace the right f return. One participant suggested that giving Palestinian refugees an pprtunity t take greater wnership f the prcess f designing cmpensatin might lead t www.chathamhuse.rg 9
a mre successful utcme. There was als brad agreement amng the participants that any frm f refugee cmpensatin shuld be accmpanied by at least a degree f mral acknwledgment that the Palestinian peple had been wrnged, since this wuld carry a lt f value and wuld be imprtant fr clsure f the issue. Israeli perspectives One participant nted that, that frm an Israeli standpint, cmpensatin fr Palestinian refugees is very unlikely t feature amng Israeli pririties in the negtiatins, since their main cncerns are abut security in the regin. As a result, it is pssible that Israelis have nt fully cnsidered all the technical issues that wuld be invlved in cmpensatin, and serius, detailed attentin t the issue is a far-ff prspect. Other participants described what they see as limited plicy capacity in Israel n the refugee issue, which has implicatins fr the develpment f its negtiating psitins. Similarly, the Israeli public generally des nt give much thught t the refugee issue, althugh there is acceptance that it will need t be dealt with. Participants affirmed the imprtance f an end f claims t the Israeli gvernment and public, as well as the matter f Jews frcibly displaced frm Arab cuntries. While there was general agreement that Arab Jews are als wed cmpensatin fr past dispssessin, there was widespread dubt abut the wisdm f linking this t Palestinian refugee cmpensatin, with many suggesting Israel shuld pursue this issue bilaterally with the apprpriate Arab states. One participant s suggestin, strngly endrsed by many thers, was that the Palestinian state culd set a psitive mral example by ffering t cmpensate the relatively small number f Jews wh had been displaced frm Arab-cntrlled areas f Palestine in 1948. Hwever, there was cnsiderable cncern that, if Jewish refugees were t be cmpensated frm the same fund, it wuld further verstretch what is already inadequate funding. www.chathamhuse.rg 10
FURTHER READING 1. Brynen, Rex (2008), The Past as Prelude? Negtiating the Palestinian Refugee Issue, Briefing paper, Chatham Huse, http://www.chathamhuse.rg/sites/default/files/public/research/middle%20east/120 92_prsimulatin0608.pdf 2. Brynen, Rex, and el-rifai, Rula, eds (2007), Palestinian Refugees: Challenges f Repatriatin and Develpment, Lndn: I.B. Tauris, http://www.idrc.ca/en/resurces/publicatins/pages/idrcbkdetails.aspx?publica tinid=99 3. Brynen, Rex, and el-rifai, Rula, eds, (2013), Cmpensatin t Palestinian Refugees and the Search fr Palestinian-Israeli Peace, Lndn: Plut Press. 4. Brynen, Rex, and el-rifai, Rula, eds, (2013), The Palestinian Refugee Prblem: the Search fr Reslutin, Lndn: Plut Press. 5. Chatham Huse Middle East and Nrth Africa Prgramme (2008), The Reginal Dimensin f the Palestinian Refugee Issue: Simulatin Exercise Reprt, Lndn: Chatham Huse, http://www.chathamhuse.rg/sites/default/files/public/research/middle%20east/120 92_prsimulatin0608.pdf 6. Dumper, Michael (2007), The Future fr Palestinian Refugees: Tward Equity and Peace, Bulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 7. Fishbach, Michael (2003), Recrds f Dispssessin: Palestinian Refugee Prperty and the Arab-Israeli Cnflict, New Yrk: Clumbia University Press. 8. Gal, Orit (2008), Israeli Perspectives n the Palestinian Refugee Issue, Briefing paper, Lndn: Chatham Huse, http://www.chathamhuse.rg/publicatins/papers/view/108833. 9. Hilal, Leila (2012), Implementing a Negtiated Settlement n the Palestinian Refugee Questin: The Internatinal Dimensins, Briefing paper, Lndn: Chatham Huse, http://www.chathamhuse.rg/publicatins/papers/view/181745. 10. Internatinal Organizatin fr Migratin (2008), Prperty Restitutin and Cmpensatin: Practices and Experiences f Claims Prgrammes, Geneva: IOM, http://publicatins.im.int/bkstre/index.php?main_page=prduct_inf&prducts_id =486 www.chathamhuse.rg 11
11. Niebergall, Heike and Wühler, Nrbert (2012), Internatinal Supprt fr Reparatin Prcesses and the Palestinian Refugee Issue, Briefing paper, Lndn: Chatham Huse. http://www.chathamhuse.rg/publicatins/papers/view/182402 12. Samy, Shahira (2010), Reparatins t Palestinian Refugees: A Cmparative Perspective, Lndn: Rutledge. 13. Shehadi, Nadim (2008), Palestinian Refugees: the Reginal Perspective, Briefing paper, Lndn: Chatham Huse, http://www.chathamhuse.rg/publicatins/papers/view/109047. 14. Shiblak, Abbas (2009), The Palestinian Refugees Issue: A Palestinian Perspective, Briefing paper, Lndn: Chatham Huse, http://www.chathamhuse.rg/publicatins/papers/view/108973. ABOUT THE MENA PROGRAMME The Middle East and Nrth Africa Prgramme, headed by Dr Claire Spencer, undertakes high-prfile research and prjects n plitical, ecnmic and security issues affecting the Middle East and Nrth Africa. T cmplement ur research, the MENA Prgramme runs a variety f discussin grups, rundtable meetings, wrkshps and public events which seek t infrm and braden current debates abut the regin and abut UK and internatinal plicy. We als prduce a range f publicly available reprts, bks and papers. www.chathamhuse.rg/mena www.chathamhuse.rg 12
APPENDIX: COMPENSATION MODELS AND EVALUATIONS Participants in the wrkshp were divided int three wrking grups, each f which was tasked with sketching ut a detailed mdel fr refugee cmpensatin. These were then discussed, evaluated and scred by the entire grup. Scres fr mst categries ranged frm 1 t 5, with 5 representing the highest/best pssible scre. Key cnsideratins and assumptins Types f lsses t Wrking Grup 1: Mdel Any cmpensatin mechanism des nt replace right f return. Acknwledgment f suffering f individual refugees is key. Resurces are limited (preferable nt t mentin ttal amunt in agreement except fr fast-track cmpensatin disbursement fr refugeehd/displacement/lst pprtunities). Ttal amunt f funding is nt a bilateral issue. Hwever, Israel shuld be respnsible fr cmpensatin fr lst prperty. Lump sum/finite fund annunced by Israel. Fast-track benefits shuld be felt within a year. Outreach and cmmunicatin with refugees is essential, shuld be dne latest upn signing a deal. Amunt fr displacement/refugeehd cmpensatin shuld be a minimum f $2,000 per refugee (i.e. $10 billin if 5 millin refugees). Priritize first generatin refugees. Give them duble the amunt. Lss f livelihd and user rights will be excluded frm the fasttrack fr prperty lss. Refugeehd payment will cver this categry f lss. Jewish refugees frm Arab cuntries: there must be an acknwledgment f their suffering in an agreement and that they need t be cmpensated fr lst prperty. Clarity that mechanism fr cmpensating them is separate frm Palestinian cmpensatin claims and that amunt is nt t be deducted frm cmpensatin t Palestinian refugees. Cmpensatin shuld be cmmensurate with cmpensatin t Palestinian refugees. The package is imprtant and may allw fr trade-ffs. Essential t separate cmpensatin funding mechanisms frm ther mechanisms in an implementatin mechanism. Displacement (fast track). www.chathamhuse.rg 13
be cmpensated Real prperty/wnership (slw track). Eligibility fr cmpensatin Determinatin f cmpensatin fr wnership claim shuld be made fr the prperty rather than the wner(s). Unreslved issue: wh shuld claim (all wners r representatives)? Criteria: fairness and equity and speed in prcess t fast-track mst claims, and leave it t mechanism. Wh is a refugee: any persn displaced as a result f 1948 war and prevented frm returning? Categries f refugees: UNRWA registered abut 5millin + c2 millin nt registered with UNRWA. Refugeehd fund applies t all, but can/shuld be disbursed quickly t UNRWA-registered refugees. Eligibility f thers will determined by the implementatin mechanism. Cmpensatin t descendants fr lst prperty (German Frced Labur Cmpensatin mdel) is a self-cntained regime based n categries f descendants. The higher layer excludes thse belw it and is t be distributed equally at that level. Valuatin Nt cvered in discussins. Payments/type f benefits Funding Organizatinal structure f Cash directly t beneficiaries. Nt fully discussed. Operatinal csts fr cmpensatin: specify that minimum amunt is needed fr peratinal start-up csts f the secretariat (estimated t be $20 millin in year ne). Subsequent annual estimated administrative budget fr the implementatin mechanism fr the first three years is $20 millin, fr the last tw years is $10 millin+ annually. Make part f the cmpensatin fund available within year ne t allw fast-track ptin (refugeehd). Resurces: minimum f paid-up funding shuld be $10 billin. Expectatins f cmmitments flwing in functin f prgress f implementatin t be anther $20 billin+ develpment Funds (amunt and methd f disbursement t be determined later), culd be managed by Wrld Bank r UN r the mechanism. Develpment csts include hst-cuntry cmpensatin fr infrastructure, refugee camp upgrading, husing, services etc. The structure and the majr functins and membership and vting prcedure t be included in an agreement. www.chathamhuse.rg 14
prperty claims mechanism Plicy Bard supervises decisin-making bdies and makes plicies nt spelled ut in agreement Membership f Plicy Bard: Israel (?), Palestine, majr dnrs including EU and US, Arab dnrs(?), Arab League, Wrld Bank, UN, Jrdan, Lebann, Syria Timeframe and clsure Risks and vulnerabilities Mitigatin strategies Vting prcedure in plicy bard: abslute majrity Decisin-making bdies: fast-track (displacement) and slwertrack (prperty) cmmissins. T shrten preparatin/start-up fr implementatin, it is preferable t harmnize data amng existing databases (Israeli, Palestinian and UNRWA) althugh difficult t implement. Secretariat /peratinal units with reginal presence. Secretary- General t be appinted by the plicy bard. The mechanism has t be self-sufficient, independent and based utside the regin. Three fast-track cmmissins with three members each fr three years. Three slwer-track cmmissins fr five years with three members each. There are different aspects t clsure: mral and plitical. Include language in the agreement t nte that it is exclusive. Waiver t be signed by each recipient f cmpensatin. Small amunt f cmpensatin may be insulting and rejected by refugees. Realize that this cannt stp individual claims utside the agreement (althugh refugees may lack any effective frum fr advancing such claims). Until full implementatin, n real end f claims. Mney des nt flw. High expectatins that are unmet in terms f amunt and time it takes. Realistic utreach cmbined with fast delivery f fast-track payments www.chathamhuse.rg 15
Hw cmplete is the prpsed mechanism? Grup evaluatin: 3.2 (partly) Wrking Grup 1: Evaluatin Hw likely is the prpsed mechanism t encunter serius prblems f technical implementatin? 3.2 (pssibly) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n technical issues: 3.4 (pssibly/unlikely) Hw vulnerable wuld the prpsed internatinal mechanism be t plitical deadlck amng its members? Grup evaluatin: 2.75 (pssibly) Hw wuld the prpsed mechanism cpe with different funding levels? $3 5 billin: 2.3 (prly) $20 billin: 3.1 (uncertain) $10 50 billin: 3.2 (uncertain) Unlimited: 3.7 (well) Hw lng d yu estimate it wuld take befre the prpsed mechanism delivered significant benefits t refugees? Average: 3.8 years Hw lng d yu estimate it wuld take befre the prpsed cmpensatin agreement wuld be cmpletely implemented? Average: 8 years T what degree des the prpsed mechanism require hst-cuntry cperatin? Grup evaluatin: 3.6 (pssibly/imprtant) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng Palestinians? Grup evaluatin: 2.1 (negative) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n Palestinian views: 2.0 (negative) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng Israelis? Grup evaluatin: 2.9 (neutral) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n Israeli views: 2.0 (negative) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng hst cuntries? Grup evaluatin: 3.0 (neutral) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n hst cuntry views: 3.0 (neutral) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng dnrs? Grup evaluatin: 3.9 (psitive) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n dnr views: 3.0 (neutral) Overall rating? Grup evaluatin: 3.4 (average/gd) Selected cmments. www.chathamhuse.rg 16
The fast timeframe is ambitius but wuld be a majr selling pint fr the Israelis, dnrs and pssibly Palestinians. Als psitive that the (semi-) clear financial cmmitments are utlined upfrnt this helps fr fundraising purpses. Addresses dnr expectatins, but nt the plitical expectatins f the parties invlved. The dignity f the Palestinians has t be taken int cnsideratin while drawing up the prpsal. Stability, justice, rights have t be the underlying bases fr all prpsals. Amunt f cmpensatin per refugee (apprximately $2,000) may be viewed as inadequate r insulting by refugees. www.chathamhuse.rg 17
Key cnsideratins and assumptins Wrking Grup 2: Mdel The right f return will nt be affected by the agreed slutin n cmpensatin. Residency chices are separate frm cmpensatin mechanism (resettlement t third cuntries, lcal integratin r repatriatin). Degree f mral acknwledgment by Israel affects acceptability and the level f cmpensatin. Cmpensatin has t be recgnized as a merely symblic gesture and nt as true reparatin fr the suffering. Hst-cuntry claims will be recgnized, but dealt with thrugh a different mechanism. It is the chice f every Palestinian refugee t chse whether t participate in the cmpensatin regime r nt. Public educatin campaigns must address refugee expectatins. Restitutin/evaluatin dealt with by Implementatin Mechanism relates t private prperty f individual claimants, nt frmer public prperty. Cmpensatin is an issue that will require internatinal invlvement and slutin. Cmpensatin fund will include an agreed level f Israeli liability and resurces. Existing recrds (including frm hst cuntries and Israel) will be available t the implementatin mechanism. Elements t be decided pstagreement Detailed rules f entitlement fr descendants with regard t prperty cmpensatin claims. Pririties in prcessing f claims (riginal wners first, elderly, neediness criteria). Rules f prcedure addressing due prcess, etc. Real prperty rights. Ownership rights t land, huses and apartments. Types f lsses t be cmpensated Nt cvered: ther persnal prperty (this will cvered by refugeehd cmpensatin). Refugeehd. This wuld be a standardized amunt t address: Lss f livelihd. Lst pprtunities including emplyment, educatin and www.chathamhuse.rg 18
scial benefits. Lss f earnings and earning ptential. Mral damages fr the suffering resulting frm the displacement as well as ther material lsses. Lss f ther persnal prperty given the lack f matrial evidence t evaluate the abve. Cmpensatin fr lss f real prperty rights: Original wner r his/her descendants. Eligibility fr cmpensatin Cmpensatin fr refugeehd: Palestinian refugees f 1948 and descendants. Displaced f 1967 and descendants. Palestinian Jews in mandatry Palestine. Valuatin Nt cvered in discussins. Payments/Type f benefits Prperty cmpensatin: Cash payments. Refugeehd: refugees wuld be given a chice: Lump-sum cash payment, r Reduced lump-sum payment + educatinal, training benefits. Wrking Grup culd nt agree n a specific sum, but settled n a distributin f available resurces: 80% fr refugeehd and 20% fr prperty. Discussin centred arund searching fr a ratinal rather than an arbitrary figure. Tw appraches were used t cme t a ptential figure: Apprach 1: $5,000 lump-sum payment fr refugeehd ($27 billin), plus $5.4 billin fr prperty wnership cmpensatin. Funding Apprach 2: prperty cmpensatin based n current value: $26 billin, plus $104 billin fr refugeehd ($20,0000 in lump-sum payments per persn). Apprach 3 (nt 80/20 rati): $50,000 per persn fr refugeehd cmpensatin, ttalling $270 billin. Israel is t make a lump-sum cntributin: $26 billin, which rughly represents 1% f Israel s GDP ver ten years. Israel s cntributin shuld be used entirely fr cmpensatin, nt administratin. www.chathamhuse.rg 19
Functins: Internatinal mechanism Valuatin. Adjudicatin. Appeals. Other (nn-cmpensatin) functins. Hst cuntries Risks and vulnerabilities Mitigatin strategies Scial implicatins Pssible priritizatin r claims (small claims/uncntested claims/elderly/riginal 1948 refugees)? Evidentiary standards fr prperty rights claims: different standards depending n size and value f land? Hst cuntries will be expected t share data and archives and facilitate data cllectin. Hst cuntries have expectatins that need t be addressed. Hst cuntries cperatin is essential fr any implementatin mechanism. Hst cuntries will feel respnsible fr individuals living in their territry and will wish t represent their interests (culd becme relevant in e.g. priritizing claims). Hst cuntries expect cmpensatin fr hsting refugees. Citizens f hst cuntries will need t be included in rehabilitatin measures in rder t avid backlash. Rejectin f package by Palestinian refugees. Failure t successfully address inevitable backlash Funding nt delivered. Safeguarding the integrity f prcess. Lack f cperatin by respnsible cuntries. Clear and cmprehensible prcess. Invlving refugee cmmunities, nt just gvernments. Gender aspects, especially when it cmes t inheritance rules. Any interventin f this magnitude will disrupt existing pwer structures. Cntingent n ther elements f rehabilitatin and implementatin f permanent residency ptin. www.chathamhuse.rg 20
Hw cmplete is the prpsed mechanism? Wrking Grup 2: Evaluatin Grup evaluatin: 1.6 (incmplete) Hw likely is the prpsed mechanism t encunter serius prblems f technical implementatin? 2.2 (likely) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n technical issues: 2.1 (likely) Hw vulnerable wuld the prpsed internatinal mechanism be t plitical deadlck amng its members? Grup evaluatin: 1.2 (very vulnerable) Hw wuld the prpsed mechanism cpe with different funding levels? $3 5 billin: 1.1 (very prly) $20 billin: 1.1 (very prly) $10 50 billin: 1.9 (prly) Unlimited: 3.3 (uncertain) Hw lng d yu estimate it wuld take befre the prpsed mechanism delivered significant benefits t refugees? Average: 6 years Hw lng d yu estimate it wuld take befre the prpsed cmpensatin agreement wuld be cmpletely implemented? Average: 9.5 years T what degree des the prpsed mechanism require hst cuntry cperatin? Grup evaluatin: 3.9 (imprtant) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng Palestinians? Grup evaluatin: 3.1 (neutral) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n Palestinian views: 2.7 (neutral) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng Israelis? Grup evaluatin: 1.8 (negative) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n Israeli views: 1.7 (negative) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng hst cuntries? Grup evaluatin: 2.3 (negative) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n hst cuntry views: 4.0 (psitive) Hw d yu think the prpsed mechanism wuld be viewed amng dnrs? Grup evaluatin: 2.0 (negative) Amng thse indicating particular expertise n dnr views: 3.3 (neutral) Overall rating? Grup evaluatin: 3.1 (average) Selected cmments. Balanced in terms f interests and limitatin but a high risk f plitical deadlck. Cgnizant f cntext and limitatins; mre amenable t cmprehensive agreement n permanent status type f agreement in ther wrds, lnger-term slutin and clsure. www.chathamhuse.rg 21
Shws need t be careful t give the implementatin mechanism a rbust set-up t take frward lack f agreement amng the negtiatrs. Still needs cnsultatin with Palestinian refugees n cmpensatin and verall package fr reslutin f refugee package. The vast sums f mney referenced in appraches 2 and 3 are likely t spark backlash frm dnrs, Israelis and even the hst cuntries that may nt like such vast sums ging t refugees withut taking their slice. Withut this funding available, much f the prpsal falls apart. Demnstrates difficulties in getting t space where imprtant technical aspects can be agreed. Liked the idea f cmpensatin fr Jews frcibly displaced frm Arab-cntrlled areas f Palestine in 1948. www.chathamhuse.rg 22
Key cnsideratins and assumptins Wrking Grup 3: Mdel It is imprtant t cnsider a variety f frms f cmpensatin. Mral acknwledgment will be an imprtant element an ffer f financial cmpensatin withut an acknwledgment f harm dne culd backfire, especially if the amunt ffered is simply a tken. A cmprehensive refugee agreement shuld prvide fr intergeneratinal and gender equity. As the majrity f Palestinian refugees reside utside the Palestinian territries, hst-gvernment cperatin and invlvement in a cmpensatin scheme will have t be taken int accunt. There is mre than ne way t cnfer benefits, including different frms f develpment assistance. An effective expectatins management strategy will be essential t avid rejectin f any likely ffer by the refugees. It is imprtant t psitin cmpensatin as a small part f the larger refugee settlement (including reparatins, acknwledgment and residential ptins). Als, the acceptability f the verall refugee package will be judged as an element f the cmprehensive peace agreement. Jewish refugees shuld be dealt with thrugh bilateral arrangements with the cuntries that expelled them. Hst gvernments are nt likely t receive cmpensatin but shuld be prvided with transitinal assistance and pssibly enhanced develpmental assistance. Eligibility fr cmpensatin: Palestinian refugees displaced as a result f the 1948 war, including thse registered with UNRWA as well as thse wh can substantiate displacement but wh are nt registered with UNRWA, and thse displaced in 1967, and the descendants f all three grups. Identificatin f cmpensatin categries. Elements t be decided in an agreement Elements t be decided pst- Timeframe t register fr cmpensatin and ther elements f the refugee settlement: fr example, an initial perid f 10 years, plus 2 x five-year renegtiable perids. Implementatin Mechanism (IM): structure and membership f IM; lcatin and jurisdictin f the IM. Israeli cntributin Fast- and slw-track criteria (agreed by IM) Inheritance: rules n which inheritance regime is based. www.chathamhuse.rg 23
agreement Valuatin The grup utlined tw pssible cmpensatin mdels. MODEL 1: A tw-track mdel This mdel invlves tw mutually exclusive ptins, A and B, with refugees pting fr ne r the ther. Optin A prvides cmpensatin fr lst pprtunity, plus a fixed sum fr (small) prperty claims. This amunt is standardized and can be paid ut rapidly t thse wh pt fr it. Mdels Optin B prvides fr larger evidence-based claims. This ptin is likely t be slwer, and the prprtin f claims paid may be cnstrained by remaining resurces. MODEL 2: A three-track mdel This mdel invlves a system f per capita payments fr lst pprtunity, plus tw mutually exclusive tracks fr prperty claims. Track A prvides cmpensatin fr lst pprtunity. Track B prvides relatively fast-tracked and standardized cmpensatin fr smaller prperty lsses. Track C prvides fr larger claims. It will require mre extensive evidence, and is likely t be slwer. Types f lsses t be cmpensated Eligibility fr cmpensatin Mral acknwledgment needs t be part f refugee agreement. Real prperty, including land. Businesses; lss f prfits. Lss f pprtunities/incme Everyne displaced frm Mandatry Palestine. Want t be as inclusive as pssible in the agreement, but narrwed dwn in actual allcatin f payments. There was n agreement n whether lst pprtunity payments shuld be made t riginal refugees (and families), r t all individuals: Families claimant is the riginally displaced persn, r heirs. Individual per capita basis might be easier as based n internatinal recrds (prvided UNRWA and ther recrds are gd enugh). A minimum ne-year timeframe fr registratin, with www.chathamhuse.rg 24
UNRWA likely t assume a majr rle. Valuatin Payments/Type f benefits Funding Internatinal mechanism: Valuatin might be simplified by use f a pints system fr different types f assets, rather than separately valuing all prperty in detail. Cmpensatin fr smaller claims might be a standardized amunt. Valuatin will be in the aggregate, based n present-day values, and factred against equity and resurce availability. Prcessing f payments: Track A phased payment, start in refugee camps; then refugee settlements, then wider. Pririty might be accrded t surviving persnally displaced refugees. There was sme discussin f whether screening might be necessary t exclude certain classes f claimants (criminals, terrrists). Sme argued that dnrs might insist n this. Others suggested that it wuld be unacceptable t Palestinians. Need t manage cash payments in a way that assures financial due diligence, reduces risks and limits administrative verhead csts. Payments receptin/cllectin centre based in regin, priritizing areas where thse mst in need are cncentrated Israeli cntributin: cntributin t bth A track and B track. Primary respnsibility fr cmpensating B/BC track. There was discussin f whether the Israeli cntributin shuld be a capped ttal amunt, r percentage f claims. Israel wuld like defined lump-sum cntributin, rather than pen-ended bligatin. Privatizatin f lands held by Israel Land Authrity (and even Jewish Natinal Fund) culd be used t help generate financial resurces. Internatinal cmmunity dnrs: mst f the mmentum twards cntributing t the implementatin mechanism will be at the beginning, and willingness t cntribute will diminish with the passage f time. There needs t be apprpriate attentin paid t the risk f a substantial shrtfall in available resurces, and hw this wuld be dealt with. The internatinal mechanism will derive authrity frm the UN General Assembly and United Natins Security Cuncil Reslutin www.chathamhuse.rg 25
membership Internatinal mechanism: functins and prcedures Hst cuntries (UNSCR), which are likely t endrse the peace agreement. The IM plicy bard will have 15 members: Israel, Palestine, EU, US, UN, Russia; 5 slts fr different Arab and? cuntries; 5 slts fr interested parties (recruited fr capacity as dnrs). Member cuntries t nminate cmmissiners fr claims bard. Vting t be based n United Natins Cmpensatin Cmmissin (UNCC) mdel: cnsensus where pssible, therwise supermajrity (9/15). The main evaluatin, decisin-making and claims prcess facility shuld be ffshre (ut f regin), but peratins (receipt f claims, investigatins) shuld be n shre (in regin). Cmpensatin: Determine fast and slw track criteria. Determine inheritance rules fr heirs. Receiving claims, valuatin, adjudicatin and pay-ut. Appeals (but pssibly nly n clerical errrs). Outreach and cmmunicatins (managing expectatins, explaining chices). Secretariat functin: Oversight f brader agreement n refugees, mnitring f refugee return, resettlement, and repatriatin. Hst-cuntry cmpensatin is NOT included in the agreement. Hwever: Reparatins/cmpensatin will benefit hst cuntries. Hst cuntries shuld be prvided with transitinal funds and will take ver UNRWA infrastructure. Bilateral develpment assistance in lnger term. Membership f plicy bard IM. Cntinuus cnsultatin. Lss f pprtunity three years; Simple prperty claims five years; Time frame and clsure Cmplex prperty claims 10 15 years; Crdinatin f return, lcal integratin and resettlement - 15 years 20 years ttal 10 years; 2x renegtiable five-year perids, with www.chathamhuse.rg 26
Risks and vulnerabilities Mitigatin strategies Scial implicatins Difficult and cntentius issues deadlines established: Deadlines fr filing f claims; Deadlines fr prcessing (each track); Dnr deadlines fr paying int fund; Deadlines fr pay-ut. Bilateral agreements t cver utstanding issues. Risk f fraud, unjust enrichment. Cash assistance risks peple may spend mney t quickly and unwisely. Insufficient funding and huge administrative csts. May nt be seen as legitimate by refugees (and hst gvernments). Sequencing. Risk that cmpensatin is nt linked t brader refugee settlement; cmpensatin takes n primacy; undervalue the nrmative and reparatins aspect f cmpensatin. Cash assistance risks gd-practice mdels need t be assessed fr mitigatin (Wrld Fd Prgramme UNWRA, Internatinal Cmmittee fr the Red Crss); develp public private partnerships and link up with ther advisry services. When, where and hw yu pay can mitigate a lt f risks. Legitimacy participatin f refugees t mitigate; cnsultatin during prcess; cmmunicatin with refugees and hst cuntries. Transitinal assistance t hst cuntries. There may be perceptins f uneven distributin f benefits, particularly in West Bank and Gaza even if the track system is intended t smewhat ffset asset inequalities. The prvisin f billins f dllars in cmpensatin will create ecnmic and scial distrtins (psitive and negative) in bth Palestine and hst cuntries. Inheritance rules fr prperty claims where riginal prperty-wner is deceased. Insufficient funding and large administrative csts. Valuatin. Eligibility. Needs a safe platfrm, where bth parties tgether can wrk ut www.chathamhuse.rg 27