Qu: Who's going take over the world?

C/W Qu: Who's going take over the world? 22/10/13 Aim: To describe who the BRICS and 'Next 11' are, explain their recent growth and develop a case study of India. Starter: Read the following. Why is it now 'BRICS' http://www.goldmansachs.com/our thinking/topics/brics/ In economics, BRIC (typically rendered as "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries") is a grouping acronym that refers to the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Together they could eclipse the combined economies of the current richest countries of the world. South Africa was added to make it BRICS last year. 1

Aim: To describe who the BRICS and 'Next 11' are, explain their recent growth and develop a case study of India. HOMEWORK 9: BRICS 1. Complete literacy exercise based on The Economist article about India 2. Read 'Mexico could shunt Britian off world stage' sheet and complete tasks 1 5 3. Watch Al Jazeera documentary below Marwan Bishara and guests analyse global powers and their agendas. Bric: The new world order. While most countries struggle economically, Brazil, Russia, India and China are booming. WATCH http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=ojr1ggp_vns 2

What we're working towards... 4. The global economy has moved on from the Asian Tigers; the present and the future of the global economy now lie elsewhere. To what extent do you agree with this statement? 40 marks 4

Who are the BRICS? 5

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business 15913867 watch Put 5 sub titles and under each say what resource has helped them to grow 6

So where did the term come from? Goldman Sachs BRICs.avi 7

Intro Work/Basic Notes Aim: To describe who the BRICS economies Tasks pg 181 AQA2 book are (and 'Next 11'), explain their recent growth and develop a case study of India. 1. Who are the BRIC countries? 2. According to Goldman Sachs, what will the 6 largest world economies be by 2050? 3. Activity 1b pg 180 8

Who are the BRICS?...continued... 9

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our thinking/focus on/growth markets/oneill/index.html New Video August 2012 10

The Bric grouping of major emerging economies Brazil, Russia, India and China is turning itself into the Brics. And the new "S" South Africa clearly sees it as a significant foreign policy success as well as recognition of its economic strength and potential. China issued the invitation as it is currently chairing what is more of a forum than a formal organisation, and a spokesman for the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation said this followed consultations among the Bric nations over a period of time. South Africa will attend the next meeting, expected to take place around April. The Chinese government has said it believes South Africa's accession will "promote the development of Bric and enhance co operation between emerging economies". 11

Graphic of BRICs growth against G7 3rd image... South Africa joined the Brics last year According to the Brics Trade and Economic Research Network, these five countries account for 43% of the world's population, 18% of global trade and attract 53% of global financial capital. 12

Things as they stand at present... 13

Per capita...still way behind though 16

Rich countries' average wealth per person China's average wealth per person 17

China's new wealth is not distributed evenly...it is a land of contrast 18

And Goldman Sach's projections for the future... 20

In the news... 23

The main emerging economies have met in the Indian capital, Delhi, to look at ways of strengthening their position against Europe and the United States. Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa (the Brics group) are proposing an alternative to the World Bank. Leaders of the five nations, which now account for nearly 28% of the global economy, discussed closer trade links. In their joint Delhi Declaration, they also said dialogue was the only route to lasting solutions in Syria and Iran. Hu Jintao joined other Brics leaders for the fourth meeting of the bloc of emerging economies. On Wednesday, a Tibetan activist died in Delhi after setting himself on fire two days earlier in protest at Mr Hu's visit. Brics nations' share of the global economy has risen fast in recent years and is expected to continue to grow. Correspondents say they are also growing in diplomatic clout. Closer economic ties. On Thursday, Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, Dmitry Medvedev of Russia and Jacob Zuma of South Africa joined Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mr Hu for hand shakes and a group photograph at the start of the one day meeting. "The Brics countries have agreed to examine in greater detail a proposal to set up a South South development bank, funded and managed by the Brics and other developing countries," Mr Singh later said. 24

Demographics... 26

Population growth is expected to slow in the BRICs over the next few decades, pushing down their aggregate share of the global population. The age structure of the BRICs will also continue to shift progressively towards older populations. In the process, each of the BRICs will encounter or is already encountering an advantageous demographic window in which the working age population is disproportionately large. With an appropriate policy framework, this could provide a boost to growth in Brazil, China and India for several years; Russia s window of opportunity has probably already passed. we'll come back to Russia... 27

And where will be the next big growth areas? 29

The 'Global Shift' is still happening! Remember, companies will locate where they can get the job done the most efficiently or 'cheapest'. The UK used to be a huge clothing manufacturer but then as labour costs rose in this country, this moved abroad to where goods could be produced cheaper. It moved to places like Malaysia and Taiwan. Over the last couple of lessons you have seen how Taiwan and Malaysia grew rapidly through labour intensive manufacturing. They then moved on to manufacture hi tech goods as rising labour costs (due to the country developing) meant investors could no longer afford to locate there to manufacture cheap goods. Instead, manufacturing of labour intensive goods moved to the BRICS. The same pattern is now happening there too...on to the Next 11. 30

Late in 2005, we introduced the concept of the Next Eleven N 11. Our purpose was to identify those countries that could potentially have a BRIC like impact in rivalling the G7. Their main common ground.and the reason for their selection.was that they were the next set of large population countries beyond the BRICs. The result was a very diverse grouping that includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.some economies that are well known to many investors such as Korea and Mexico but also many that are not such as Nigeria, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh. http://www2.goldmansachs.com/our thinking/brics/brics and beyond book pdfs/brics chap 11.pdf 31

http://www.goldmansachs.com/gsam/advisors/education/investment themes/growthmarkets/growth markets rollup/index.html Video about the N11 32

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business 13684335 34

But all of this money does not necessarily mean that Russia belongs in the same club as all the other Bric nations. "I think it would be wrong to say that Russia will be able to develop strong growth rates in coming years. The term was coined by Jim O'Neill, a top economist at Goldman Sachs, when he was trying to come up with a word to describe where he thought world growth and economic power was going to come from in coming decades Brazil, Russia, India and China. These days South Africa is often added to make the word Brics but the idea is just the same. But does Russia belong in that exclusive club? Certainly Alexander Morozov, chief Russian economist at HSBC in Moscow, has his doubts: "I think it would be wrong to say that Russia will be able to develop strong growth rates in coming years. Brazil, India and China can do this they have the potential to industrialise further and employ additional labour. All the labour that Russia has is already employed.therefore the efficiency gains are not the same as when you have a green field site and just employ workers from the neighbouring village or province." While Brazil, India and China have seen large increases in population with huge numbers of young, educated workers desperate for jobs, Russia's population went into decline after the end of the Cold War. As did much of its heavy industry. While the other three Bric nations have started industrialising almost from scratch, Russia was left with a swathe of old and appalling, inefficient industries from the Soviet era. Anders Aslund is a Swedish economist who helped Russia privatise much of its industry in the 1990s, but he says much of it was not fit enough to survive in the private sector. 35

"Much of machine building has simply collapsed," he says, "and much of manufacturing as well. They were producing bad products that nobody wanted to buy." But some Russian industries are doing well its commodity producers. Russia is now the largest oil exporter in the world and the second largest exporter of natural gas. Its petrochemical and steel industries have also prospered. Welcome though this is, it is not what is really happening in the other Bric countries. Some think that Russia has more in common with Saudi Arabia than with China. Russian oil platform Russia is the world's largest producer of commodities The Russian government, for instance, relies on oil and gas sales for 40% of its tax revenues. That means the current high oil price is filling the Kremlin's coffers like never before. But the country's infrastructure is crumbling and, as with many oil producing countries, corruption is rife in Russia a further brake on economic growth and development. Perhaps the best judge of whether Russia really deserves to be counted amongst the Bric nations is Alexander Lebedev, the billionaire Russian oligarch, who has been outspoken in his criticism of corruption in his home country. When I interviewed him in his luxurious and well guarded offices in one of Moscow's smartest districts, he was quite clear on the subject. "Instead of Bric it should be Bic. For the real comparison, look at what is going on in infrastructure in China. You just stand there gawping in disbelief. Why are they not doing it here?" Russia has many things going for it, a huge under developed land mass, massive mineral resources and some brilliant industries nuclear power and space technology among them. But is it really a young, vibrant, industrialising country that is taking on the West and winning, like Brazil, China and India? Because it certainly does not feel like it is. 36

Tasks pg 181 aqa2 book & the wall! 4. Use the posters around the room to add further material to your notes Aim: To describe who the BRICS economies are (and 'Next 11'), explain their recent growth and develop a case study of India. 5. Now complete India Literacy exercise... to be finished for homework HOMEWORK 1. Finish literacy exerciseo n India 2. Read Mexico sheet and complete tasks 1 5 2. Watch Al Jazeera documentary about the BRICS 37

Marwan Bishara and guests analyse global powers and their agendas. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojr1ggp_vns documentary about the BRICS to watch in your own time Bric: The new world order While most countries struggle economically, Brazil, Russia, India and China are booming. 39

Attachments Goldman Sachs BRICs.avi