Lokaritgerð til BA-gráðu í stjórnmálafræði. White opportunity

Lokaritgerð til BA-gráðu í stjórnmálafræði White opportunity Should Russian Arctic activity be considered offensive or defensive? Þórarinn Gunnarsson Júní 2017

White opportunity Should Russian Arctic activity be considered offensive or defensive? Þórarinn Gunnarsson Lokaritgerð til BA-gráðu í stjórnmálafræði Leiðbeinandi: Marc Lanteigne dósent við Massey University of Albany Umsjónarmaður: Silja Bára Ómarsdóttir aðjúnkt Stjórnmálafræðideild Félagsvísindasvið Háskóla Íslands Júní 2017

White opportunity Ritgerð þessi er lokaverkefni til BA-gráðu í stjórnmálafræði. Óheimilt er að afrita ritgerðina á nokkurn hátt nema með leyfi rétthafa. Þórarinn Gunnarsson, 2017 kt. 140193-2759 Reykjavík, Ísland, 2017

Abstract In this paper, it is examined whether that the Russian decision to bolster their Arctic defenses as a new geographical reality concerning their Arctic borders threatens the security of other Arctic states. Furthermore, if it is rational for these neighboring states to fear these actions by the Russian Federation, as it gives the perception of decreased security for them. For this analysis, I used the Realist and the Liberal theories, two fundamental theories in International relations with much focus on the Security dilemma which was treated as a separate theory for the sake of the paper. The Arctic is a treasure chest filled with loot for nations and corporations to exploit. So, the Arctic recourses had to be looked at, their energy abundance and the problems assessing them. The Russian economy was analyzed briefly and their dependence on their energy sector for foreign currency and economic security. The hard security questions raised by the change in the Arctic. Arctic politics to get a sense of the Arctic region and the nature of the communications between Arctic nations.

Preface Ritsmíði þessi er lokaverkefni mitt til BA prófs í stjórnmálafræði við Háskóla Íslands. Hún var rituð á vormisseri 2017 og er metin til 12 ECTS eininga. Leiðbeinandi minn var Marc Lanteigne, dósent við Massey University of Albany. Lanteigne var staðsettur á Nýja sjálandi meðan á skrifunum stóð og vil ég þakka honum fyrir frábæra leiðsögn, hvatningu og skjót viðbrögð í hvert sinn sem þörf var á. Ekki var hægt að finna að hann væri staðsettur hinum meginn á jörðinni. Ég vil þakka foreldrum mínum, Birnu og Gunna, fyrir stuðning og aðstoð í náminu og bræðrum mínum og fjölskyldum þeirra fyrir heillaráð í hvers sinn sem þess þurfti. Einnig vil ég þakka vinum mínum Mumma, Eyjólfi, Inga, Óttó og strákunum öllum fyrir félagsskapinn og stuðninginn í gegnum skrifin. Kristrúnu sérstaklega fyrir yfirlestur og hvatningu þegar þess þurfti. Í ævanlegri skuld stend ég við kennara mína sem frá sex ára aldri hafa vakið áhuga minn á vísindunum.

Table of contents Abstract... 5 Preface... 6 Introduction... 8 1 Theoretical framework... 11 1.1 Realism... 11 1.2 Contemporary Realism... 12 1.3 Liberalism... 14 1.4 Contemporary Liberalism... 16 1.5 The Security dilemma... 18 2 The Arctic treasure chest... 21 2.1 The Arctic Geography... 21 2.2 The Russian Economy... 22 2.3 Arctic politics... 24 2.4 Russian security... 26 3 Analysis... 30 3.1 Realism... 30 3.2 Liberalism.... 32 3.3 The security dilemma... 34 Conclusion... 37 Bibliography... 40

Introduction At the height of the cold war, the Soviet Union was the first power to build a nuclear powered boat, an icebreaker called Lenin. 1 The Americans were ahead in many technological aspects, but in the matters of the Arctic and Arctic warfare the Soviets had the upper hand. That might not come as a surprise as the northern border of the Soviet Union lied well within the Arctic Circle. The Russian Arctic was laid with airfields, military bases and industrial outposts. When the Soviet Union collapsed and Boris Yeltsin came to power in the 1990s, changes had to be made in the Arctic policy. Relations with the United States had thawed. So there was less incentive to spend the little money the new Russian state had, on securing a relatively secure area. Austerity measures were necessarily put in place and in time it seemed as the interest the Russian leadership had in the Arctic was dwindling. Bases were abandoned, state owned companies were privatized and the icebreaker Lenin was permanently docked in the port at Murmansk, where it stands as a monument to different times. Many believed that the fall of the Soviet Union was to be the end of rocky relations between the major powers. Russia being the heir to Soviet commitments in the international system and the United States. The focus drew away from the icy relations between the two international giants and the threats it posed on the world. Instead international security interest shifted towards other threats, namely terrorism. But in recent years relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated to a point where other states have argued that their security has been severely threatened by Russian activities. The Russian military is currently occupied in Ukraine since 2014, the biggest conflict Europe has seen since the Yugoslavian wars in the 1990s. Russia was also the first country to annex European land since the Second World War, the Crimean Peninsula, despite international objections. Sanctions have been put in place because of this by the EU, the US and some of their allies. It is safe to say that some people that lived in the days of the Cold War could be feeling a bit evocative. 1 Russia Today. World s first nuclear ice breaker to become a museum and hotel. www.rt.com, May 5, 2009. https://www.rt.com/news/world-s-first-nuclear-ice-breaker-to-become-a-museum-and-hotel/. (Accessed: April 24. 2017). 8

Year after year the record for the warmest year is broken, glaciers keep melting and the Arctic ice sheet keeps shrinking. 2 And while elected officials in the United States are still arguing about climate change, the Russian Government seems to be preparing for a new reality concerning their Arctic borders; that the Arctic becomes an area suited for economic development. Russian presence in the Arctic has been renewed in a couple of ways; build up of military bases and civilian infrastructure. The Arctic is proving to be a new frontier, rich with data for scientists to interpret, but also rich with natural resources. It contains over a fifth of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources, which is more than in Saudi Arabia. The Russian passage is located well within Arctic waters and is sometimes called the Northern Sea Route. As the ice continues to melt the passage will stay open for a longer period of time every year. 3 Thus shortening the distance between Europe and Asia by sea and presenting possible business opportunities for the Asian, eastern European and central European markets. Many explanations can be given for this increased presence of Russian military personnel, scientific research and civilian activities in the Arctic. As with any study of a country s security policy, perfect information about strategy is impossible unless one is within the innermost circles. However, theories in international politics will help us see the situation from different perspectives, both optimistic ones and pessimistic ones. For the analysis, two theoretical approaches will be used, realism and liberalism which are fundamental to the theory on International Relations. Those two theories have dominated the thinking of scholars for quite some time and are to some extent opposites. The contemporary approaches rooted in these traditions will serve as an analytical tool for the purpose of this paper. The understanding of them will not only give the reader a better understanding of the subject, but international relations as a whole. The Security Dilemma roots itself within the framework of the Realist school, but for the purpose of this paper it will be treated as a third independent theoretical approach. The Security Dilemma is well known within the theory on International Relations, both as a tool to understand state behavior and also to understand why arms races become the reality for many states. In this 2 NASA. NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally. www.nasa.gov, January 18, 2017. https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally. (Accessed: April 24. 2017) 3 Ibid. 9

paper the understanding of the Security Dilemma will bring about the realization that states have to secure their national interest, and why a situation that might be perceived as irrational is in fact very rational in the purpose of serving the state s vital interest of surviving and being secure. It is imperative to the understanding of the matter to look at the contemporary history of the area, what is happening and what has happened; How the Arctic is abundant with natural resources and how dependent the Russian state is on them. The Russian economy will have to be examined in relation to this and how the Russian economy affects other states and how other states and non-state actors affect the Russian economy. The crisis in Ukraine and Georgia will give an insight into the Russian mindset and explain further the views of other states towards it. Disputed territories in the Arctic will be explained briefly and the scientific research supporting the claims of state actors. The standing of Russian security will be explained, how the melting ice poses a security threat to the state and why it is so imperative for it to maintain strong defenses. Hopefully this paper will help the reader understand the Arctic region and its importance, Russian activity within the Arctic Circle, and whether other Arctic states should match Russia's new Arctic security measures, that is make advancements in their Arctic military capabilities and increase the rates of their northern patrols or seek more cooperation. The purpose of this paper is thus to shed light on whether the activity of the Russian Federation close to its northern borders is to be considered offensive or defensive and why states seem to be confused about the issue or even worried about Moscow s long term security plans. 10

1 Theoretical framework International relations theories, used for theoretical analysis in this paper, will be explained in this chapter. The fundamentals of realism and liberalism, and their lineage to their respective contemporary approaches will have to be explained to give a better understanding of the analysis in the discussion chapter. Also, for better understanding of the subject the security dilemma has to be explained, although the dilemma is not a theoretical school by itself, it gives great insight into the situation in the Arctic. 1.1 Realism One of the oldest theories in International relations is the realist theory of the International political sphere. Where states compete for survival in a world ruled by anarchy there are many variations but the same beliefs hold, that peace among nations is not a permanent state of world affairs. But rather a short, or a bit longer, intermediate period between wars. States are the main focus within the theoretical framework of realist theories; The main powers in the world the most, and their ability to affect world affairs. Non-state actors have little or no sway in world affairs or are mostly inconsequential according to realist thinkers. 4 Realists base their thinking on three fundamental principles. Firstly, as previously mentioned, realists focus mostly on powerful players or powers, those states that have the biggest influence on international politics. 5 Secondly, that how a state acts is caused by that state s surroundings rather than some internal traits one nation might have; states will act the same given the scenario. This is consequential to this case as the Arctic's geography is very distinctive. All states act according to the same logic given the circumstances and therefore there are no malicious or good states, as the international system molds their actions. No political system or government can change that. The only changes in behavior come from the impact they might have, the power they possess within the system. 6 Thirdly, that states are obsessed with power, that speculations about it steers their thinking and that they struggle for said power all the time. To compete for it sometimes means that states have to go to war to accumulate it, or decrease the power accumulation of others. Even though states might cooperate, the reality is that the interest of states conflict with each 4 John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy Of Great Power Politics, (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001) pp. 3 5 Ibid. pp. 9 6 Ibid. pp. 9 11

other. 7 That according to realists is fair play, a tool used in statecraft. Power politics in the international arena is a Zero-sum game, In which the gain or loss of a player s utility, in this case power, is precisely offset by the losses or gains in the power of other players; Therefore it can be brutal and unforgiving. Some have argued that this is even truer for great powers as they have the possibility of losing their high status. 8 The foreign policy of Russia shows signs of this kind of thinking, as though Russia is trying to prove the point that they are still a major power. 1.2 Contemporary Realism Neorealism has along with neoliberalism dominated the debate on international relations for the last three decades, though other less mainstream approaches have made considerable impact. Neorealism and neoliberalism are more than just theories though, as they double as conceptual frameworks for real people to work within they can define an agenda for research, policymaking and a field of study. Neorealism can be categorized into three groups, the structural realism that was the contribution of Kenneth Waltz, the neoclassicalrealists who took Waltz writings and fused them together with more traditional realist ideas. And finally there is a branch of neorealism, which closely relates to the field of security studies most often called offensive and defensive realism. When most people talk about neorealism they are talking about the vision of realism Kenneth Waltz put forward, structural realism. This kind of realism differed in many ways from the old theory of realism. For example, Waltz and other neorealist scholars think that units (read: nations) are not the only factor to consider when analyzing state behavior but rather that systematic factors within said countries are also to be considered. 9 Therefore, the neorealists do not consider countries to be black boxes 10 reacting to the anarchy in the international arena but rather, they recognize the anarchy and the state's capabilities compared to other nation to be what shapes the decision made by those nations. 7 Mearsheimer, The Tragedy Of Great Power Politics, pp. 10 8 Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, (New York, Vintage Books, 1987), ISBN 0679-720197. 9 John Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. in The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, 5. ed. John Baylis, Steve Smith og Patricia Owens (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 128-132. 10 Hedley Bull. The anarchical society: a study of order in world politics. London: Macmillan, 1977. 12

Another factor that differs between the classical realist theory and the neorealist is the view of what power consists of and what is important. In the classical literature raw military power is by default the biggest and almost the only factor to consider but Waltz argues that power comes in many forms and accumulates. That is, economic power and technological power will accumulate with military power to determine how influential a state is, because according to the realist theory, power determines the influence a state has. Withal, to say that the neorealists dismiss the power of military might also be wrong as Waltz stated that military power is still a huge factor in determining the influence and power of a state. 11 Increased military activity in the Arctic can thus be seen as a way for the Russian state to accumulate power, but according to the contemporary approach the resources it might bring them can also be a way to supplement the power accumulation. This might prove to be vital to future plans of the Russian state, as the economic crisis has decreased their economic power considerably as of late. 12 Neorealists argue further that all states experience the same constraints that the anarchic presents upon the system. 13 According to them, states react differently because of their place and role in the international system but not their location, size or domestic situation, as classical realist would argue. This is why, according to a neorealist, a small state with medium influence will consider to ally themselves with neighboring countries in the face of danger, but a more influential one with a lot of power will choose to implement a more unilateral domestic measure. 14 This enables two scenarios. The first is that Russia, being a powerful player in international politics, can make the decision to act unilaterally in the affairs of the Arctic. The other scenario is geography, internal political situation and population size driving the state towards cooperation. The newest variation of the realist school of thought is more relevant to policy makers than the ones that came before them. They combine international relations and security 11 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 128-132 12 Ivana Kottasova. Russia's economy has been in recession for 18 months. www.cnn.com, August 11, 2016. http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/11/news/economy/russia-economy-recession-six-quarters/ (Accessed: April 24. 2017)http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/11/news/economy/russia-economy-recession-six-quarters/ Accessed: April 24. 2017 13 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 128-132 14 Ibid. pp 128-132. 13

studies and split into two branches, defensive and offensive realism. 15 These two branches are used to describe the interactions of states towards other states, and to show that not all states are the same. States can have good rapport with some states and consider them friendly while they regard other as unfriendly and in some cases enemies. Policy and decision makers will thus act differently towards states considering the category they fall into. 16 Offensive realists believe that states will focus on relative gains of a country and that this is vital to hinder expansionist states from emerging and being able to expand. Thus changing the status quo. It stands to reason that if the states that are competing with Russia are influenced by this theory, it will be imperative for them to minimize the gains of Russia in the Arctic. Defensive realists on the other hand realize the cost of war, that they are too expensive in a system of complicated interdependence. 17 In other words, that they rise from irrational thinking but are aware that expansionist states can emerge. Thus, it is important for states to be militarized if they are to be able to defend themselves against the threat of those states, preferably by deterring any attacks. 18 This demonstrates two very different viewpoint of the current situation in the Arctic; that Russia is simply preventing the possibility of being left out in Arctic matters and deterring attacks or that the new security measures put in place can be seen as a precursor to territorial claims by an expansionist state. Other states might feel that the latter can very well happen as Russia has shown in recent years that it is capable of seizing land in Eastern Europe. 1.3 Liberalism The liberalist school of thought in international relations traces its roots back to the enlightenment. Both scholars and people of influence believed that the world could be made better with the use of rationality. This view of international relations is more optimistic than the realist one, stating that interdependence between states decreases their incentive for war; 19 but furthermore increases global well-being. 15 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 128-132 16 Ibid. pp. 128-132 17 Ibid. pp. 128-132 18 Ibid. pp. 128-132 19 Mearsheimer, The Tragedy Of Great Power Politics, pp. 8. 14

Just like realism, liberalism is based on three fundamental principles. Firstly, like realists, liberals focus on states as powerful actors within the international arena, but realize that internal factors, such as individuals, dictate the actions of a state. 20 Unlike realists they state secondly, that states have different attributes and that they can differ a great deal. This in turn can have much impact on how states conduct themselves. Internal power structures are critical to those attributes. Some structures, like democracy, are preferably better than others. 21 This illustrates that there are both good and malicious states within the liberal system. The good states try to interact peacefully with other states and avoid going to war. Conversely, the malicious states are aggressive and use force frequently to satisfy their means. 22 The solution for liberal thinkers is therefore to spread good policies, so that malicious states can turn good. Thirdly, liberals argue that power matters little to good states but that wealth and well-being do. If all states where good, the importance of power would be miniscule. Additionally, that a fight for power only occurs as consequence of damaging internal realities. 23 Economic interdependence is a peacekeeping tool according to liberals. Economic order is a key element of keeping states from attacking and going to war with each other. Therefore free trade among states is paramount to this. Because free trade makes a state more prosperous; they are economically better off and those states that are well off are less likely to go to war with another state to satisfy their needs. 24 If a state is already well of, there is no need to attack another state for its resources. Another thing is that a mutually beneficial trade agreement might be more beneficial than simply taking the resources needed. The total gain from a war won would be less than what the state could gain from continuous trading with said country. Once the economic bond between two states is strong enough, they will avoid conflict and focus on increasing the economic wealth. 25 An example of this could be the change in relations of Germany, France and other European states after 20 Mearsheimer, The Tragedy Of Great Power Politics, pp. 8 21 Ibid. pp. 9 22 Ibid. pp. 9 23 Ibid. pp. 13 24 Ibid. pp. 9 25 Ibid. pp. 9 15

the Second World War. 26 If the Arctic economic situation fosters cooperation, the prospect of interdependence between nations might well levitate tensions between state actors. 1.4 Contemporary Liberalism Contemporary scholars continuing the Liberal legacy are called neoliberals. In 1993, David Baldwin was able to identify four distinctive branches of neo liberalism that influenced the foreign policy of major states. The first branch promotes free trade, a capitalist economy, as the best way forward in keeping peace and supporting prosperity among nations. This view is popular amongst multinational corporations as well as major trading states and financial institutions and is called commercial liberalism. 27 Another branch called neoliberal orthodoxy argues similarly that property rights, free markets and free trade is the optimal environment for an innovative, tolerant and a richer world. 28 Europe is one of Russia's biggest trade partner and according to the theory more trade would increase interdependence between the parties. According to this theory one of two options are available. That there becomes a unified market around the Arctic economy, and thus promote peace or whether states will try to act unilaterally and tensions between states will grow. The second branch which influences the foreign policy of major states revolves around democratic peace theory. Democratic states are most likely to respect the rights of citizens of another state, and its borders if that state is also democratic. 29 This theory along with the theory on commercial liberalism has been fused together to form the foreign policy of many countries, including major powers. This poses threats for the Arctic according to the theory, as the Western states are mature democracies and have been for a considerably long period of time and Russia's democratic institutions are relatively new, fragile and flawed. 30 The theory of good and malicious states as stated above, is the concern of Sociological liberalism, the third branch that influences foreign policy makers. Sociological liberalists argue that with globalization borders become skewed. The distance between 26 European Union. A peaceful Europe the beginnings of cooperation. https://europa.eu/europeanunion/about-eu/history/1945-1959_en. (accessed April 27, 2017). 27 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 128-132 28 Ibid. pp. 132-134 29 Ibid. pp. 132-134 30 The Economist Intelligence Unit. Democracy Index 2016 Revenge of the deplorables. http://pages.eiu.com/rs/783-xmc-194/images/democracy_index_2016.pdf (accessed April 27, 2017). 16

people shortens. People from different countries become linked and become interdependent on each other. 31 This in return makes it more difficult for states to act unilaterally but also increases the cost of being protectionist. Thus globalization promotes more globalization. As the cost of non-compliance in international agreements, war and irregular behavior goes up and the prospects of a peaceful international community increases. 32 With the seclusion of Russia due to the sanctions put in place by Western states, liberalism states that because of this Russia might act more unilaterally and more maliciously. Many Scholars believe that liberal institutionalism presents the biggest challenge to the realist and neo realist point of view. This liberal school dates back to the fourth decade of the 20th century and is influenced by functional integration and regional integration studies. 33 The main idea suggested by Institutionalists is that states should pool their resources and surrender to some extent their sovereignty to international institutions. This in return promotes interdependence of countries but furthermore, increases their economic growth. These institutions are also best suited to respond to regional crisis. 34 If this sounds familiar it is because the European Union started out as a regional community that encouraged the states of Europe to pool their resources together and commit to multinational cooperation agreements. The European Union has, evolved from the little coal and steel community it once was and into a huge institution with a tremendous amount of power and influence. 35 Currently there is no such institution regarding Arctic matters. This brings forward the question whether such institution would benefit the Arctic region. The reason why many believe that this approach is better suited to challenge the realist world view is because it poses a more pragmatic world view than the other liberalist thought schools. 36 This theory is regarded to be more pragmatic than idealistic. Which is the most common challenge made about the School of liberalism. 31 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 132-134. 32 Ibid. pp. 132-134 33 Ibid. pp. 132-134 34 Ibid. pp. 132-134 35 European Union. A peaceful Europe the beginnings of cooperation. https://europa.eu/europeanunion/about-eu/history/1945-1959_en. (accessed April 27, 2017). 36 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 132-134. 17

1.5 The Security dilemma To better understand neorealism and neoliberalism it is vital to understand relative and absolute gains. Scholar Joseph Grieco believes that states seek to increase power and influence within the international system, that is, they seek out absolute gains. 37 This is a strong motivator for states to cooperate with other states but also other actors. Grieco also explains that states are not only interested in absolute gains but also in relative gains. 38 That means that a state wishes to know how much the other actor might gain from any cooperation venture. Because states worry that others might gain more than them, through cooperation. Therefore, a state which feels that it has been cheated by cooperation will either seek to rectify the relationship or quit, like the UK with Brexit. This can help us understand a fundamental difference in the way in which neoliberals and neorealist see the cooperation between international actors. According to the neoliberal point of view cooperation between international actors cannot happen if those actors do not follow the rules, and cheat to secure their interest. On the other hand, neorealist believe that because actors find it to be in their best interest to cheat and see relative gains of another country as not in their interest, cooperation within the international system will happen, but it is rare and there is no guarantee of peaceful relations.. Moreover, a state that fails to comply to rules that promote cooperation can set off a chain reaction, per the theory, that encourages other states to abandon cooperation in favor of unilateral decisions. 39 The likelihood of states dismissing cooperation with other states in increased by the prospects of another country gaining relatively more than others from said agreements. And even more if there is a security aspect involved. 40 Arms reduction is seen generally as a good thing, especially if they pose a threat to civilians. Reduction of viable weapons for a state to utilize should also be a way to increase security, fewer threats to deal with. But states can see banning of some weapons as more beneficial for their neighboring countries than their own. Some weapons are used to counter the tactics of another country; tactics that require 37 Joseph M. Grieco. Anarchy and the limits of cooperation: a realist critique of the newest liberal institutionalism. (Boston, MS.: International Organization the World Peace Foundation and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1988), pp. 487. 38 Ibid. pp. 487. 39 Robert Jervis. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma. World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2 (1978), pp. 168. 40 Ibid. pp. 168 18

weaponry and cannot be replaced by other means. Landmines are an example of this, where a country can compensate for a small population and few soldiers to deter a much larger land force with mines. 41 In this scenario the relative gains of another country will be a matter of national security. The last paragraph describes the security dilemma to some extent. Deriving from the study of security, the security dilemma will help shed light on Russian activities in the Arctic. Robert Jervis a scholar in the field of security studies wrote a paper on cooperation within the anarchist system of international relations and in the face of the security dilemma in 1971. 42 The theories put forward in this paper still hold to this day and is regarded as one of the most important in the field. Jervis combined the system present in international relations with game theory to explain why the security dilemma arises. The prospect of one actor cheating in the international system, that is starting war, increases the prospect of other actors to cheat as well. 43 Cheating in the international system can have tremendous consequences to other actors. The purpose of states is to defend itself. As said above, in the chapter of neo realists, the gain of power for one state can mean the loss of power for another. This is the heart of the security dilemma as it states that: Increase in the security of one state can and may well be perceived as the loss of security of another. 44 Therefore, due to the anarchy there is no guarantee that states are honest about their security intentions, meaning that a move by one state to augment its security for defence purposes, likely will be seen by others as being offensive, even with assurances. This can cause a spiral of security increases and this theory is thus sometimes called a spiral model. Actor A will increase their military might to defend themselves. Actor B will interpret this as a security threat and arm themselves better to counter the actions of actor A. Actor A will sense this the same way and thus the possibility of a spiral or an arms race will get much higher. States that are not vulnerable can be more relaxed and take threats less seriously than states that are vulnerable because they will not 41 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 128-132. 42 Jervis. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma. World Politics. pp. 167-214. 43 Ibid. pp. 172. 44 Ibid. pp. 175. 19

fall because of a surprise attack. 45 Rather, those who are not vulnerable can wait and see what the other state does, insetad of fearing what it might do. The concept of the security dilemma is a straightforward one. It states that the increased security of one state's decreases the security of another, as stated above. Individuals can nevertheless increase their security without decreasing the security of others. That means taking more passive security measures such as moving to a better neighborhood, walking well-lit roads and so forth. 46 States cannot just move to better neighborhoods even though they might want to. Underlining the importance of geography within security thinking. Increased military security will be seen as a threat to neighboring countries, and with increased capability of carrying out military operations from afar, all countries can be threatened as well. 47 Cooperation within the international system relies to an extent on trusting and relying on other states to cooperate as well. 45 Jervis. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma. World Politics. pp. 172. 46 Ibid. pp. 169-170. 47 Vogler, Contemporary mainstream approaches neorealism and neoliberalism. pp. 128-132. 20

2 The Arctic treasure chest Looking at a globe from the top, centering on the North Pole, gives some people a view of the world they have not seen before. A giant ocean with a cluster of islands on one side, a considerably smooth coastline opposite of them, the Bering Strait connecting them on one side and the biggest island in the world, Greenland, on the other. The Arctic is all the area north of the 66th degree from the Equator. Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Canada, Iceland, The United States of America and The Russian Federation all have borders that cross the Arctic circle, a line which marks the beginning of the Arctic. The most dominant factor of the Arctic is the ice sheet, which covers an area that ranges from nine and twelve million km² and the Greenland ice sheet covers an additional 1,71 million km². 48 The Ice sheet floats on top of the Arctic Ocean which makes submarine expeditions to the north pole achievable. 2.1 The Arctic Geography The Arctic is abundant with natural resources. A considerable part of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources can be found under the seabed. Already, about one tenth of all oil that is sold in the world comes from the region, and Russian oil companies are the biggest producers in that area by far. 49 In recent decades, the region has produced billions of cubic meters of oil and gas. About 80 percent of the Arctic oil and almost all the gas comes from Russian territories. Although Norway and Canada are also big players in the industry. About 60 very extensive oilfields have been discovered onshore and only about three quarters of them are in production. 50 Most of those are located within Russia s economic area, predominantly in Western Siberia. The largest gas fields in the Arctic region are located near the coasts of Alaska and Siberia. 51 Aside from fossil fuels, the Arctic is also rich in useful minerals. There are abundant deposits of nickel, copper, coal, gold, uranium, iron, tungsten, and diamonds. Those are hard to reach due to climate and geology. The developmental cost is also quite high, so not all of those deposits have been utilized. 52 Russia is also leading in this industry, with companies 48 National Snow and Ice Data Center. Quick Facts on Ice Sheets. nsidc.org. https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html. Accessed: April 28. 2017. 49 The Russian Geographical Society. Natural Resouces. http://arctic.ru/resources/. (Accessed: April 24. 2017) 50 Ibid. 51 Ibid. 52 Ibid. 21

mining in Siberia that are rich with minerals. However, mines can be found all over the Arctic region. Glaciers have removed layers of the ground making the minerals a lot more accessible for excavating and now with the melting of the permafrost even more niche resources are becoming available like ivory from mammoth tusks. 53 The Arctic ecosystem is also plentiful in biological resources. About 20 percent of the world's freshwater and some of the largest rivers can be found here. It has one of the largest wilderness areas. It is home to region specific species, like the polar bear. Millions of birds migrate to the region each year to breed. The Arctic Ocean has many species of fish which sustain fisheries all over the region. 54 Russia is a big part of the Arctic and the Arctic is a big part of Russia. 20 percent of the country is above the Arctic Circle and over two million of Russian nationals live there. 55 Russians shores expand over 40 percent of the Arctic circumference but Canada has half of that and other countries, like Denmark has half of what Canada has, or even less. 2.2 The Russian Economy The Russian state is heavily dependent on oil to say the least. Russian energy revenues accounted for 43 percent of the total federal budget revenues in 2015. That same year Russia was the biggest producer of crude oil, second biggest producer of dry natural gas and the third biggest produced of petroleum and other liquids. 56 Energy companies in Russia are producing around 10 million barrels of oil every day, a large portion of that is then exported. Russian owned oil reserves are not about to run out anytime soon. Estimates on the oil underneath the Russian landscape vary from 60 billion barrels to 160 billion. British Petroleum has the number around 80 billion barrels. 57 This means that Russia is in no need to expand its territory to meet demand any time soon. The biggest problem facing Russia is the means in which they have to extract their natural resources. The Russian oil industry had recovered remarkably from the 1990s oil 53 The Russian Geographical Society. Natural Resouces. http://arctic.ru/resources/. (Accessed: April 24. 2017) 54 Ibid. 55 Roger Howard. The Arctic gold rush: the new race for tomorrow's natural resources. (London: Continuum, 2009). pp. 142 56 The U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Analysis: Russia. https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=rus. (Accessed: April 24. 2017) 57 Howard, The Arctic gold rush. pp. 143 22

crisis, in which oil prices dropped and the industries wide neglect surrounding the collapse of the Soviet Union. From 1999 till 2008 Russian oil companies produced oil like never before. Stocks rose at an almost unprecedented pace and profits followed. 58 A country that depends so heavily on one sector is bound to hit hard times. Oil prices seriously fell at the end of 2014, due to overcapacity and lowered demand, combined with ill advised energy tax policy that supported quick but unsustainable growth which caused a decrease in oil production. 59 The Russian energy sector is lacking in two very important aspects, offshore drilling and making the most out of their existing wells. To become properly competitive Russia will have to exploit the expertise of foreign companies, which have perfected these methods of oil extractions. 60 This means that the Russian energy sector has to invest considerably more money than they are used to. The Russian Federation only spends 1,13 percent of its GDP on research and development, which is low, compared to the US, 2,73 percent. 61 Inviting foreign companies to do business is not popular among the Russian ruling elite. A fear that the exploitation of Russian resources in the 90 s will be repeated is still a real concern. Rich Russian oligarchs moving their wealth offshore and unfair profit sharing agreements with Western companies, meant that oil profits were not used to invested in Russia. 62 Because of this the general mood is that foreign companies, and especially Western ones are in the business of exploiting and will continue to do so. This tardiness to allow foreign companies to work in Russia and help make the Russian energy industry more modern is also a huge security concern. As stated above Russia is heavily dependent on oil. It supplies the state with foreign currency and is fundamental to the workings on the state. Reliance on foreign companies to produce their number one export resource produces the possibility of threats and blackmail when an international crisis is imminent. 63 Russia therefore does not have the need for more oil reserves, they lack the technology to exploit them; the resources in the Arctic are even harder to extract. Nevertheless Russia will try to keep foreign companies away from their resources as best they can for the reasons stated 58 Howard, The Arctic gold rush. pp. 143 59 Ibid. pp. 145. 60 Ibid. pp. 146. 61 The world bank. Research and development expenditure. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/gb.xpd.rsdv.gd.zs. Accessed: April 24. 2017 62 Howard, The Arctic gold rush. pp. 146 63 Ibid. pp. 146. 23

above. Russia seeks to attain the security of demand that is keeping its customers satisfied enough so that they don't look to other providers for their energy. 64 This is no hidden agenda as Moscow's official energy policy states energy security is the most important element in Russian national security 65. Giving up on Arctic resources could mean that other states that have sufficient capabilities to extract the energy resources, will swoop in and claim them for themselves. This will then mean that European customers will have more options regarding energy purposes. Russia could try then to bring the price down, but as stated before, the price of oil will best serve Russian interest if it s high. This means that the Russian state has to use it or lose it, or in this case secure it or lose it. 2.3 Arctic politics It came as a shock to some and angered others when a Russian submarine planted a titanium flag under the ice sheet at the North Pole. The former Canadian foreign affairs minister Peter MacKay claimed it to be medieval, saying This isn't the 15th century, you can't go around the world and just plant flags and say we are claiming this territory. 66 The Norwegian military soon ordered several fighter jets to bolster their northern defenses and the European Union responded as well. 67 Others, mainly Russian newspapers claimed it to be a stunt and that foreign nationals were on board the submarine. 68 Whatever the intention of the flag planting was, there is no doubt that the action provoked state actors and fueled mistrust towards Russia. This was a pivotal moment for geopolitics in the Arctic, as nation states and agencies scrambled to map out and find ways to govern the area. When it comes to the ownership of the Arctic and the resources it holds, not all are in an agreement. As the ice melts and the glaciers shrink new small islands emerge, which no one has even stepped on, let alone mapped. Just like those islands, the draw of the Arctic's resources is also emerging. Resources that are placed firmly within the borders of a country are rarely contested. But when those resources are in locations in which ownership can be contested, it usually 64 Howard, The Arctic gold rush. pp. 147 65 Mankoff, j. Quote. Eurasian Energy Security; Report by the Council on Foreign relations. 2009. New York. 66 Peter MacKay. Canadian Foreign Minister in an interview with CTV television, August 2. 2007. 67 Alun Anderson. After the ice: life, death, and geopolitics in the new Arctic. (New York: Smithsonian Books, 2009). pp. 103 68 Guy Faulconbridge. Russian sub plants flag under North Pole. www.reuters.com. August 3, 2007. http://in.reuters.com/article/idinindia-28784420070802 (Accessed: April 24. 2017) 24

will. Even though oil is not a scarce resource for those countries that have a claim in the Arctic, a use it or lose it mentality emerges if they become somewhat available. Civil wars in Western Africa, Arab leaders questioning the legitimacy of the borders drawn up after the First World War and the genocide in Kuwait are all recent examples of conflict over resources. The Arctic has for the longest time been somewhat uncontested aside from few cases. Although in the first decades of the 21st century this began to change. As the Ice melted and prospects of a huge reserve of oil, gas and mineral reserves began to emerge, so did the claims over ownership of the Arctic regions. The case of the Lomonosov ridge is a clear example of this. Russia, Canada and Denmark are all in a disagreement over the ownership. The ridge lies underneath the Arctic ice sheet all the way through the North Pole. 69 The Russians were first to claim it, but Canada and Denmark quickly contested this claim and started a joint operation to map out the ridge using sophisticated sound wave technology. Although they both claim the territory for themselves. The Russians started their own investigation. This scientific research is still ongoing and aims to support claims of all interested parties. 70 Though most of the known economical resources are located in uncontested areas of the Arctic and there is little possibility of a conflict arising over the contested areas due to the lack of resources located there. This proves that there is to some extent a rivalry between the Arctic nations. About the Russian Arctic program the Russian Deputy Minister, Aleksandr Tsybulsky, said at an investment forum held in Sochi in March 2017, that sources of program financing for a new Arctic program would soon be discussed by the government. 71 The program is supposed to cover the Russian Arctic program until the year 2025 and replaces the program set to cover the Arctic development program accepted in 2014. According to him a huge investment of 210 billion rubles will be needed to push the agenda forward. Furthermore, the program has been approved by all ministries other than the Ministry of Finance. According to Tsybulsky one of the biggest projects will be the construction of a new Lider class of nuclear-powered icebreakers and that the bulk of the investment will be made after 69 Anderson. After the ice: life, death, and geopolitics in the new Arctic. pp. 110-111 70 Ibid. pp. 110-111. 71 Atle Staalesen. Russia s Ministry of Economic Development wants 210 billion rubles for Arctic regions, www.rcinet.ca, March 7, 2017. http://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2017/03/07/russias-ministry-ofeconomic-development-wants-210-billion-rubles-for-arctic-regions/. (Accessed: April 24. 2017). 25

2019. 72 The plan proposes to develop Arctic Support Zones and that they are a priority in this new program. Those zones are to be developed in each of the eight key Arctic regions. One for each. Their purpose is to facilitate the prospects and the development of the Northern Sea Route. To add, they will be facilitating the exports of natural resources. 73 2.4 Russian security Russian military commanders have shown that they are not afraid to use their capabilities. The 2008 attack on Georgia and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula are recent examples of this. Russian leaders have for a long time seen the Arctic as important part of Russia, as Gorbachev stressed at a 1987 ceremony in Murmansk. 74 With much focus on the region in the 60s and 70s. With the fall of the Soviet Union the focus was drawn from the expensive Arctic and to other priorities but now Putin has again renewed Russia's Arctic ambitions. In September 2008 the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev underlined the importance of the Arctic to the other nations. 75 Saying that the vast reserves of carbon resources were vital to Russia's overall energy security and that it could keep Russian competitive for the long term. Russia was invaded on three different occasions by Western powers in the past. Those invasions, though not successful, costed the Russian people a lot, as millions died because of them. Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler all tried to conquer Russia and failed. Earlier from the east, the Mongols and the Ottoman Empire were somewhat successful, though as time moved on Moscow gained its territory back. This has resulted in a general mistrust by Russian leaders towards other countries and it could be said that Russia is obsessed with security. The retreat of the Arctic icecap thus poses security threats to Russia. The ice wrapping around Russia's northern coastline has throughout human history been to thick and inhospitable for any to attack. Less ice means that Russia can become vulnerable from 72 Atle Staalesen. Russia s Ministry of Economic Development wants 210 billion rubles for Arctic regions, www.rcinet.ca, March 7, 2017. http://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2017/03/07/russias-ministry-ofeconomic-development-wants-210-billion-rubles-for-arctic-regions/. (Accessed: April 24. 2017). 73 Ibid. 74 Mikhail Gorbachev. 1987. Mikhail Gorbachev's speech in Murmansk at the ceremonial meeting on the occasion of the presentation of the order of Lenin and the Gold Star to the city of Murmansk https://www.barentsinfo.fi/docs/gorbachev_speech.pdf. Accessed: April 28. 2017. 75 Howard, The Arctic gold rush. pp. 142 26