America in the Age of Trump Dr. Markus Hünemörder, LMU München you can download this presentation at www.amerikahaus.de/usaupdate
How Did It Happen? Trump s Presidential Victory in 2016 2
Trump s Controversial Campaign while running for president, Trump deliberately broke the rules and challenged the political consensus political style based on provocation rhetorical transgressions: insults, racism, sexism, contradictions populism: attacks on both parties and the entire political system prejudice: attacks on Mexican immigrants and Muslims nationalism: attacks on free trade and US support for military allies Donald Trump is the most controversial president in recent history. 3
3 a.m. / 100 Days in Office The Simpsons, 2016-17 In two video clips, the Simpsons made fun of Trump s hair. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t LSy8Tl2bjs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= Qo3fT0xPeHs 4
The Presidential Election of 2016 both Trump and Clinton were deeply unpopular candidates for many voters, a choice for lesser evil Trump won the presidency 306 to 232 in the electoral college Clinton had almost 3 million more popular votes, mostly from California Trump won due to narrow victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin Democratic states in the last six elections economically troubled rust belt region Trump did much better well among older, white, working-class voters than most Republicans deep division in American society Trump won white, rural, traditional, religious America Clinton won the multi-ethnic, urban, modern, secular America Trump carried much of the Rust Belt, traditionally Democratic states. 232 (48%) 306 (46%) 5
Trump s America 6
Clinton s America 7
The Trouble With Trump The Politics of the Trump Administration 8
The Revolving-Door White House Trump changes key personnel often national security advisor, communications director (twice!), chief of staff, secretary of health dramatic rise and fall of Steve Bannon frequent changes are due to: Trump s personality power struggle between normal Republicans and radical populists Steve Bannon was the principal architect of Trump s right-wing nationalist, populist campaign. His influence is now gone. 9
Trump s War with the News Media (and Reality) Trump frequently attacks the news media, sometimes even Fox enemies of the people fake news : any news that s bad for Trump alternative facts : statements that supports Trump, regardless of truth strong reliance on Twitter ideal for Trump s rhetorical style Trump loves to use Twitter as a means of reaching out to his supporters directly. 10
Andy Serkis Becomes Gollum To Read Trump's Tweets The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, 2017 Motion capturing and voice actor Andy Serkis reprises his role as Gollum to read one of Trump s tweets complaining about the fake news media. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6 4mWOoj68qo 11
Trump and the Congressional Republicans Trump is not a normal Republican major conflicts with key senators little significant legislation and policy has been enacted due to internal Republican division only major achievement: tax reform lower taxes for corporations and the wealthy normal Republican policy none of Trump s special priorities have become law so far border wall, immigration reduction, protectionism, domestic infrastructure Republican party is split into pro-trump populists, anti-trump establishment Trumpism without Trump is not very successful Paul Ryan (Speaker of the House), Trump, and Mitch McConnell (Senate Majority Leader) 12
Immigration and the Wall anti-immigration rhetoric is at the core of Trump s politics denounced Mexican immigrants as rapists and drug dealers called for a US-Mexican border wall and complete deportation of illegal immigrants complained about immigrants from s**thole countries new rules for faster deportations of illegal immigrants but no mass deportations yet Trump cancelled Obama s protection for young illegal immigrants ( dreamers ) negotiations over immigration reform, including solution for dreamers, are behind recent government shutdown funding for border wall is doubtful even many Republicans consider it useless This is part of the existing border fence near San Diego. Trump wants a much higher wall along the entire border. 13
Year of Republican Control Saturday Night Live, 2018 SNL pokes fun at the Republican party s lack of accomplishments. 14
Trump and Foreign Policy Trump has damaged relations with the EU cancelled free trade negotiations withdrew from Paris climate accord threatens to cancel nuclear deal with Iran support for Brexit and right-wing populists questioned commitment to NATO most of Trump s foreign policy is more conventional than his campaign rhetoric limited involvement in Syria and Iraq moderate expansion of troops in Afghanistan threats, sanctions, and diplomacy regarding North Korea no major change in relations with Russia no new anti-terrorism initiatives While Trump has certainly disrupted international diplomacy, his impact is less radical than critics feared. 15
Trump Prepares Saturday Night Live, 2016 Actor Alec Baldwin impersonates Donald Trump. He meets with a general to discuss strategy against the terrorist organization ISIS (known in Germany as Islamic Stats IS). In his campaign, Trump claimed to have a secret plan to destroy ISIS. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= DDuf1SPH0wA 16
Trump in Trouble Investigations, Elections, and Impact 17
The Russia Investigation Russian hackers manipulated 2016 campaign (not election) against Clinton big question: did Trump s campaign team know or collaborate? did Trump fire FBI director James Comey to stop investigation? investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller is stirring up Washington impeachment-level revelations seem unlikely however, Trump is upset continuous damage to his presidency Trump plays down the importance of the Russia investigations, but is really upset about them. 18
Donald Trump Christmas Saturday Night Live, 2016 On Christmas Day, Donald and Melania get a surprise visit from Vladimir Putin. Note: The Manchurian Candidate is a classic American movie about a US politician who is a Communist sleeper agent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l afrzaf1h_q 19
Diminishing Support Trump s approval ratings have dropped to ca. 38% as bad as Bush or Obama after many years in office key elections losses in Virginia and Alabama hard core of support among ca. 20% of voters (Trump s base ) enough to put pressure on Republicans the real test will come with the congressional elections in November Democrats face an uphill battle but Republicans may lose on or both chambers of Congress All the criticism from US institutions and foreign countries only makes Trump more credible to his supporters. 20
Trump s Impact on the United States Trump s power is severely limited by checks and balances the rule of law political manners and willingness to compromise continue to worsen political division and gridlock in the US US leadership in the world declines but a multipolar world may be less stable than a hegemonic one premature end of Trump presidency seems unlikely Trump s election shook up the US and the world. His actual impact is more limited, but still problematic. 21
you can download this presentation at www.amerikahaus.de/usaupdate 22