Graduation and Retention Rates of Nonresidents by State March 2011 Highlights: California, Illinois, and Texas are the states with the largest numbers of nonresidents. Students from Ohio and Wyoming persist and graduate at the highest rates, while students from Arizona and New Jersey have the lowest rates. Nonresident students have lower graduation and retention rates then resident students. The purpose of this research brief is to explore the retention and graduation rates of nonresident students by their state and region of residency. Future research will utilize the National Clearing House data to explore if nonresidents who leave CSU do so to attend an in-state institution. There are 15 states that have had less than 100 students start as new freshmen at CSU in the cohorts between Fall 1995 and Fall 2009. These states are West Virginia, Delaware, District of Columbia, Rhode Island, Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Maine, Louisiana, Vermont, Arkansas, North Caroline, North Dakota, and Tennessee. Due to the small number of students, these states are excluded from state by state comparisons. On average, students from these 15 states make up 5% of a nonresident cohort. California, Texas, and Illinois are the states with the largest number of nonresident new freshmen. Students from these three states collectively make up about 30% of a nonresident freshmen cohort. Chart 1 displays the average proportion of nonresident freshmen from different states since fall 1995. Chart 1. Average Proportion of Nonresident Cohorts by State Students from the Rocky Mountain and Midwest regions are the most academically prepared and these regions have the highest graduation and retention rates. Remaining States 56% California, Texas, and Illinois 30% 15 smallest 5% Highest Performing (Ohio and Wyoming) 5% Lowest Performing (Arizona and New Jersey) 4% Nonresident retention and graduation rates by state, March 2011 1
Chart 2 compares the overall nonresident average retention and graduation rates to the state average retention and graduation rates for select states. Nine states were selected because they are the lowest performing states (AZ and NJ), the highest performing states (OH and WY), the largest states (IL, CA, and TX), and the two states with the largest gap between their retention and graduation rates (FL and MA). The cohort size, average graduation, and average retention rates by state are presented in the appendix. Chart 2. Nonresident Six Year Graduation and First Year Retention Rates of Combined Cohorts by State 90% 40% FA95 - FA09 Retention FA95 - FA04 Graduation Average NR Retention Average NR Graduation In order to show recent trends by state, Charts 3 and 4 represent the worst performing, best performing, and largest states retention and graduation rates over the last five years. Much of the volatility in the graduation and retention rates by sate could be due to the small cohort sizes. All cohorts averaged less than 100 students each fall and most averaged less than 20 students each fall. Nonresident retention and graduation rates by state, March 2011 2
Chart 3. 100% 95% 90% Arizona (N=125) Nonresident First Year Retention by State New Jersey (N=82) Ohio (N=67) Wyoming (N=78) Illinois (N=380) Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 California (N=485) Texas (N=435) Chart 4. Nonresident Six Year Graduation Rate by State 35% 25% 15% Arizona (N=92) New Jersey (N=48) Ohio (N=76) Wyoming (N=129) Illinois (N=344) Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 California (N=385) Texas (N=480) Nonresident retention and graduation rates by state, March 2011 3
To mitigate some of the volatility, analysis was also done grouping nonresident students by their region of residency. Over the last 15 years the proportion of nonresident students from each region has remained relatively stable; although, the nonresident class size has grown. Chart 5 is a stacked bar graph that represents the last 15 years of nonresident cohorts and the proportion of them from each region. The appendix includes information on which region each state is from. Chart 5. 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Fall 1995 to Fall 2010 Nonresident Freshmen Cohorts by Region of Residency Northeast South Midwest Plains Rocky Mountain West FA95 FA96 FA97 FA98 FA99 FA00 FA01 FA02 FA03 FA04 FA05 FA06 FA07 FA08 FA09 FA10 Academic preparation influences retention and graduation rates; therefore, average academic preparation indicators should be considered by region. Table 1 displays the overall nonresident average high school GPA, Index score, high school percentile rank, and test score averages for the last 15 nonresident cohorts and the difference by region from the overall average. Nonresident retention and graduation rates by state, March 2011 4
Table 1. Fall 1995- Fall 2010 Nonresident Academic Preparation Region Averages Compared to Overall Nonresident Averages Nonresident Average Midwest Northeast Plains Rocky Mountain South West High School GPA 3.5 0.05 0.17 0.06 0.23 0.06 0.01 Index 114.6 1.15 2.35 0.60 4.52 1.09 0.54 High School Percentile Rank 63.1 0.91 7.28 2.45 11.95 10.22 2.19 ACT composite 24.7 0.26 0.69 0.06 0.77 0.12 0.28 SAT verbal 563.5 0.69 1.50 4.96 8.76 5.55 10.16 SAT math 571.8 2.25 1.54 0.21 5.50 3.63 2.80 Chart 6 displays the average retention and graduation rates by region compared to the overall nonresident averages. Chart 6. Nonresident Six Year Graduation and First Year Retention Rates of Combined Cohorts by Region 40% Rocky Mountain Midwest West South Northeast Plains FA95 - FA09 Retention FA95 - FA04 Graduation Average NR Retention Average NR Graduation Charts 7 and 8 represent the graduation and retention rates for nonresidents from different regions over the last five years. Nonresident retention and graduation rates by state, March 2011 5
Chart 7. Nonresident First Year Retention by Region 90% Rocky Mountain (N=550) Midwest (N=979) West (N=897) South (N=299) Northeast (N=524) Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Plains (N=719) Chart 8. Nonresident Six Year Graduation Rate by Region 40% Rocky Mountain (N=644) Midwest (N=975) West (N=907) South (N=288) Northeast (N=384) Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Plains (N=856) Nonresident retention and graduation rates by state, March 2011 6
Appendix. State (Region) Count of New Freshmen from Fall 1995 to Fall 2009 Average Proportion of Cohort Average Persistence Rate Average Graduation Rate AK (West) 354 3% 79.9% 65.6% AZ (Rocky Mnt) 284 2% 73.9% 51.3% CA (West) 1,322 11% 78.4% 53.2% CT (Northeast) 133 1% 78.2% 59.6% FL (South) 198 2% 83.3% 53.3% GA (South) 153 1% 81.0% 60.3% HI (West) 389 3% 81.7% 60.1% IA (Midwest) 214 2% 79.0% 63.3% ID (Rocky Mnt) 141 1% 83.0% 58.3% IL (Midwest) 1,001 9% 82.1% 63.1% IN (Midwest) 128 1% 75.6% 62.4% KS (Plains) 220 2% 80.0% 55.2% MA (Northeast) 176 2% 83.0% 53.8% MD (Northeast) 183 2% 85.8% 58.9% MI (Midwest) 175 2% 78.3% 59.1% MN (Midwest) 440 4% 74.8% 53.8% MO (Midwest) 306 3% 78.8% 56.6% MT (Rocky Mnt) 192 2% 77.6% 64.1% NE (Plains) 380 3% 74.7% 60.7% NH (Northeast) 103 1% 76.7% 56.1% NJ (Northeast) 208 2% 72.6% 52.4% NM (Rocky Mnt) 530 5% 83.2% 67.4% NV (Rocky Mnt) 219 2% 81.3% 63.5% NY (Northeast) 197 2% 76.7% 54.9% OH (Midwest) 236 2% 84.3% 71.4% OK (Plains) 105 1% 77.1% 56.2% OR (West) 299 3% 77.6% 60.9% PA (Northeast) 238 2% 77.3% 56.6% SD (Plains) 174 2% 74.6% 59.3% TX (Plains) 1,167 10% 75.1% 53.8% UT (Rocky Mnt) 127 1% 78.6% 62.6% VA (South) 165 1% 77.6% 62.4% WA (West) 282 2% 79.0% 62.3% WI (Midwest) 267 2% 77.5% 58.9% WY (Rocky Mnt) 301 3% 85.7% 67.6% 15 smallest states* 558 5% 76.3% 46.3% * West Virginia, Delaware, District of Columbia, Rhode Island, Maine, Vermont (Northeast), South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, North Caroline, Tennessee (South), and North Dakota (Plains). Nonresident retention and graduation rates by state, March 2011 7