Battleground 2016: new game June 30, 2016
Methodology Battleground Survey of 2700 Likely 2016 Voters in 9 competitive presidential battleground states. This survey took place June 11-20. Respondents who voted in the 2012 election, 2014 election, or registered since the 2014 election were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample = +/-1.89 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Respondents were divided equally among states (n=300) of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Margin of error for each state sample= +/- 5.66 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Forty-nine percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full electorate in each state. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of the explanatory variable (presidential vote) on outcome variables (associations, statement pairs), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for the explanatory variable, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results. 1
State Breakdowns Senate Battleground: Arizona Florida* Nevada North Carolina Ohio New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Diverse Target States: Arizona Florida Nevada North Carolina Rustbelt Target States: Ohio New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan *The Senate vote results were excluded in Florida where Senator Rubio had not yet announced his candidacy. 2
THE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 3
Clinton leads Trump across the battleground I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +8 +7 49 41 45 38 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump 2-Way Vote 10 Other/DK Hillary Clinton Donald Trump 11 Gary Johnson 3-Way Vote 6 Other/DK 2 Way Vote 3 Way Vote 4
Trump and state GOP leaders now face of toxic GOP brand Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 53.5 Net: +13 53 Mean: 47.9 Net: +1 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: Mean: Mean: 48.0 42.4 40.2 43 42 41 Mean: 40.7 Net: -1 Net: -11 Net: -19 Net: -13 Mean: 34.2 Net: -30 32 31 30 40 25 25 27 13 10 18 34 32 33 45 39 34 51 40 42 43 52 51 44 60 Barack Obama Bernie Sanders Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party GOP in State Legislature Donald Trump 5
Trump gets less than half of the white vote, even in 2-way race I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +10 +9 +81 +44 86 64 39 49 36 45 12 5 7 20 12 Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson White African American Hispanic 6
Clinton winning all generations, including millennials I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +22 +4 +2 +7 +2 46 36 32 41 39 48 41 46 44 24 22 25 13 5 5 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Millennials White Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers Silent 7
8 NEW CHART The 2016 women s vote is more complicated than you think PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Unmarried Women (31% of Clinton vote) Married Women (27% of Clinton vote) 2012 Vote 1 33 66 Obama Romney Other/DK /Refused 2016 Vote (2-way) 26 10 63 Clinton Trump Other/DK /Refused 2012 Vote 2 45 53 Obama Romney Other/DK /Refused 2016 Vote (2-way) 46 10 45 Clinton Trump Other/DK /Refused College-Educated Women (28% of Clinton Vote) White Non-College Educated Women (18% of Clinton vote) 2012 Vote 1 43 56 Obama Romney Other/DK /Refused 2016 Vote (2-way) 32 11 57 Clinton Trump Other/DK /Refused 2012 Vote 2 39 59 Obama Romney Other/DK /Refused 2016 Vote (2-way) 50 11 39 Clinton Trump Other/DK /Refused
Improved margins among unmarried women from 2012 I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Unmarried Women White Unmarried Women +33 +39 +5 +19 66 62 52 47 50 33 23 10 31 13 Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson 2012 2016 2012 2016 9
Marriage gap sustained, even though married women now even I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 2012 Marriage Gap: 41 2016 Marriage Gap: 40 +8 +33 +1 +39 66 53 45 33 Obama Romney Obama Romney 62 42 43 23 8 10 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Married Women Unmarried Women Married Women Unmarried Women 10
RAE less determined to vote than non-rae, driven by millennials How much do the elections this November for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from one to ten, with one meaning they don t matter at all and ten meaning they matter tremendously. You can choose any number between one and ten. PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND % 10 Matters Tremendously 78 77 75 75 75 75 73 73 70 69 69 69 69 68 68 59 58 11
Never Trump nearing half Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump in the election for President in November is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton/Trump, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton/Trump for President in November? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 45 40 38 48 10 11 Voting for Clinton Considering Clinton Never Clinton Voting for Trump Considering Trump Never Trump Clinton Vote Trump Vote 12
Composition of Clinton s winnable voters I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton in the election for President in November is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton for President in November? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Clinton s Winnable Voters 51 65 55 26 20 27 8 3 16 24 2 Dem Ind Rep Clinton Sanders Other Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Other Partisanship Democratic Primary Republican Primary 13
Clinton has consolidated 9-in-10 Democrats, Trump only 8-in-10, and real Libertarian vote with Independents I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 89 80 4 5 32 33 24 5 11 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Democrats (40%) Independents (24%) Republicans (35%) 14
Majority of Johnson voters are Republican, but three-in-ten will vote for Clinton in 2-way ballot I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Johnson Voters 52 31 30 24 15 36 10 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Other DK/Refused Democrat Independent Republican 2-Way Vote Partisanship *Partisanship is show by Democrats/Democratic leaning Independents, Republicans/Republican leaning Independents 15
Romney defectors driven by leadership/immigration, Obama defectors by desire for change/nationalism/economy I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. ROMNEY 12, NOT TRUMP 16 OBAMA 12 NOT CLINTON 16 Income 36 12 19 39 +3 Economy 59 37 7 22 +37 Immigration 23 9 26 49 +26 Incomes & wages 51 21 10 28 +23 Values 16 18 31 +15 Taxes 46 23 9 23 +23 Middle class 26 11 14 28 +2 Stands for America 56 34 6 17 +39 Strong Leader 18 17 49 +31 Special interests 48 25 7 21 +27 Special interests 28 8 14 33 +5 Right kind of change 51 30 5 15 +46 Right kind of change 21 5 16 31 +10 Issues matter to me 51 32 6 19 +32 Has what it takes 16 23 46 +30 The future 49 26 19 +40 The future 26 8 16 31 +5 Strong leader 47 31 10 29 +17 16
THE RUST BELT PLAY & DIVERSE STATE STRATEGY 17
Very different demographics in these sets of states RUSTBELT STATES 81 % of Voters 47 53 RAE Non-RAE White African American 13 3 18 Hispanic DIVERSE STATES % of Voters 23 22 20 24 Minority Unmarried Millennial Women White Non- College Men White Non- College Women 56 44 67 14 14 31 25 22 15 20 RAE Non-RAE White African American Hispanic Minority Unmarried Millennial Women White Non- College Men White Non- College Women 18
Clinton's margin across both areas suggests big Electoral College battleground I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? DIVERSE STATES RUSTBELT STATES +8 +8 47 44 39 36 9 5 13 6 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other/DK Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other/DK 19
Growing diversity producing bigger battleground I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)? DIVERSE STATES +11 +10 -- +6 49 38 48 38 44 44 39 45 9 8 9 10 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Florida North Carolina Nevada Arizona 20
And running ahead of 2012 margins in the diverse states I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Diverse States +10 +4 +10-6 +13 +6 +1 +11 +6 -- -3 +10 44 54 39 45 50 49 49 38 52 46 44 44 48 51 48 38 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. Arizona Florida Nevada North Carolina 21
No advantage for Trump in the states he needs to win I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)? RUSTBELT STATES -- -- +9 +12 +15 41 41 41 41 45 36 44 32 48 33 14 10 13 16 12 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Ohio New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan 22
RAE vote comparable in two areas, so composition is everything I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]? Clinton Trump Johnson RUSTBELT STATES DIVERSE STATES +33 +37 +64 +24 +35 +41 +60 +20 75 75 55 60 45 60 64 48 22 23 17 RAE Unmarried Women 10 11 12 21 28 25 23 10 10 Minorities Millennials RAE Unmarried Women 15 6 Minorities 28 15 Millennials 23
Trump performs better with working class men in diverse states I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? RUSTBELT STATES DIVERSE STATES +18 +7 +30 +15 61 32 50 36 43 31 37 52 14 11 3 9 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson White Non-College Men White Non-College Women White Non-College Men White Non-College Women 24
VALUES & LEADERSHIP 25
Majorities disagree with Trump s outlook on society Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right. PRESIDENTIAL Much more BATTLEGROUND Much more Immigrants today are a burden on our country. Immigrants today strengthen our country. +22 33 18 31 55 More and more, I don't identify with what America has become. More and more, America is a place that I can feel comfortable as myself. +13 54 28 20 41 Whites are losing out because of preferences for blacks and Hispanics. Blacks and Hispanics face discrimination that needs public attention. +29 27 12 30 56 Women who demand equality are actually seeking special favors. Women get fewer opportunities than men for equal pay and good paying jobs. +59 15 5 45 74 26
Trump supporters are particularly isolated on immigrants Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right. Strengthen much more Immigrants today strengthen our country. PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 74 Burden much more Immigrants today are a burden on our country. +22 +25 +35 +58 +19 +26 55 55 62 53 57 31 33 18 30 12 34 39 27 13 47 16 7 30 34 34 31 19 17 residential BG voters Trump Votes Johnson Voters Clinton Voters Rustbelt States Diverse States Total BG Trump Voters Johnson Voters Clinton Voters Rustbelt States Diverse States 27
Clinton leads on values & qualifications I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Trump much more Clinton much more Has what it takes to be President 35 21 40 52 +17 For the middle class 37 24 36 52 +15 The right approach to immigration 39 27 38 52 +13 Shares your values 37 21 33 48 +12 Best for America s future 40 27 35 48 +8 Raising incomes and wages 41 22 28 48 +7 Will bring the right kind of change 41 26 30 46 +5 28
But at parity on the economy and safety I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions Stands up for corporate special interests on behalf of ordinary people PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Trump much more Clinton much more 39 21 24 44 +5 Finally raising issues that matter to me 42 29 32 46 +4 Strong leader 44 31 34 46 +2 Safety 45 33 34 46 +1 The right approach to taxes 43 26 25 44 +1 A better economy 47 33 30 46 +1 Stands up for America 46 34 32 44 +3 Honesty 42 26 24 38 +4 29
Her lead is based on her leadership qualities Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people say they might vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. After I read this list, tell me which THREE are the most important in your decision. Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Jobs and the economy Safe from terrorists Obamacare Immigration Qualifications for President President Obama's work Abortion rights/gay marriage Affirmative action/equal rights Big business and big money Family and women Authentic and likeable 6 16 15 13 25 23 22 21 38 30 47 30
THE SENATE STORY 31
Room for Democratic Senate vote to grow in diverse states I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)? DIVERSE STATES Clinton Trump Dem Senate Cand. Rep Senate Cand. +6 +2 +10 +2 -- +5 39 45 42 44 48 38 38 36 44 44 41 46 AZ President NC Senate NV President Senate President Senate Arizona North Carolina Nevada 32
Democratic Senate candidates competitive with room to grow I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)? RUSTBELT STATES Clinton Trump Dem Senate Cand. Rep Senate Cand. -- +1 -- +3 +9 +8 +12 +1 47 46 41 41 41 41 43 40 45 46 44 46 45 36 38 32 NH President OH Senate President PA Senate WI President Senate President Senate New Hampshire Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin 33
One quarter of GOP Senate voters defect on hearing GOP abortion, gun and gay marriage agenda Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose: Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people After hearing the Republican candidates takes these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent? Not Voting for Senate Democrat* +35 57 25 10 Very certain to vote for Democrats Somewhat certain to vote for Democrats Will not vote for Democrats * And those who don t ID as Democrats in Michigan 34
Abortion, guns and gay marriage drive GOP Senate voters to Democrats down ballot [IFWILL VOTE FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE AFTER HEARING GOP INFO] Which one of the Republican candidates' positions bothered you the most? SENATE BATTLEGROUND Opposes abortion, even in cases of rape and incest 36 Opposes restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles 19 Opposes gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people Opposes new laws guaranteeing equal pay for women 13 10 15 percent volunteered all of the above 35
Democratic votes to be gained down-ballot, especially among RAE in diverse states Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose: Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people After hearing the Republican candidates take these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent? 77 Not Voting for Senate Democrat* Will not vote for Democrats Very certain vote for Dems 49 57 61 55 64 15 53 38 41 41 36 33 37 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Clinton NOT Senate Dem Undecided in Senate Vote RAE Diverse States Unmarried Women Diverse States Millennials Diverse States * And those who don t ID as Democrats in Michigan 36
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