:,, COPYRIGHT 1993 By THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION By SUBSCRlBERS ONLY. Release Release Date: Wednesday, June 2, 1993 State KATHLEEN BROWN CONTINUES TO IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is BE FRONT-RUNNER FOR DEMOCRATIC subject to revocation if publication or broadcast GUBERNATORIAL NOMINATION. takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff By Mervin Field and Mark DiCamillo prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) Treasurer KatWeen Brown continues to be the front-runner in the 1994 Governor's race, running ahead of possible Democratic party rivals and besting Pete Wilson in a simulated general election matchup. She holds a substantial lead over State Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi in a possible twocandidate race and runs well ahead in a three-way race when Assembly Speaker Willie Brown is listed. In its most recent survey, The Field Poll measured the public's regard and disposition to support each of three possible Democratic candidates for Governor, as well as the GOP incumbent Pete Wilson. Job Performance Ratines While a relatively large proportion of voters have no opinion of the job that KatWeen Brown is doing as Treasurer, her ratings among those able to make an assessment are much more positive than negative (23 % to 10%). By contrast, Garamendi's job marks are more evenly balanced (24 % favorable and 21 % unfavorable). Willie Brown's job performance appraisal is about two-to-one negative (31 % unfavorable to 16% favorable), while Wilson's ratings are almost three-to-one negative (42% unfavorable and 15 % favorable. ) TI'"H3 Fleid (Cr]iij" r~;\v' sit IC(~~ 'i I' as aq indepfjrh.jt;n1 dnr:! In1partial puolic opinion ne\ivs sij('jict:'. The prji is one of tile :],(~i U\.:!\.:~~ i! l(j'!'j~' d ; 1:Ji-I-'iJ(01'rt. rlon partlsafl devote(j to the study o f pun1ic 0pinl()ll ant:: behavior on soc::~l c,,": " ji-:sti\...ii(--; J~~ cj.rdicatg;d t,fj GI'c:()ur::i0jq:~J th 9 'tjid("jst possible dlsserninf.dlon o} ;ts survey findings to the l!e,i l,. l::~!i i.;ji.~,~ :,';\"'C-'i\,f:'~; f~'(j(n,:]c~ :~Hn"i1C< qc)\i(~rj'~rn~)n'i, rnedia, ~-iqd pr:\/atg ~)OL..!rce~~
The Field Poll Wednesday, June 2, 1993 Page 2 Excellent I good Fair Poor I very poor No opinion Kathleen Brown State Treasurer John Garamendi State Insurance Commissioner Willie Brown Assembly Speaker Pete Wilson Governor 23% 31 10 36 24% 30 21 25 16% 32 31 21 15% 36 42 7 At Inclinations to Support this time, none of the four candidate possibilities receives anywhere near a majority of voters inclined to support them for Governor. Only in Kathleen Brown's case is there a larger proportion of voters inclined rather than disinclined to vote for her (33 % inclined and 28 % disinclined). With Garamendi, 38 % are disinclined to vote for him, while 27 % are inclined. Substantial majorities of voters are not inclined to support either Democrat Willie Brown or incumbent Republican Wilson. In respect to the Assembly Speaker, 57% say they are not inclined and just 21 % are inclined - producing a 36-point negative vote plurality. In Wilson's case just 27% say they are inclined to vote for him with 61 % disinclined - a 34-point gap on the negative side. Kathleen John Willie Pete Brown Garamendi Brown Wilson Inclined 33% 27% 21% 27% Not inclined 28 38 57 61 No opinion 39 35 22 12
The Field Poll Wednesday, June 2, 1993 Page 3 GOFers Say Challen&:e to Wilson a Good Thin&: One sign of the weakness of incumbent Governor Wilson among his own rank-and-file is the fact that two-thirds of all Republicans polled (66%) feel that it would be a good thing for the GOP if one or more Republicans decided to challenge Wilson in next year's gubernatorial primary. This compares to 14% who believe this would be a bad thing, 11 % who say it depends and 9% with no opinion. Democratic Primary Trial Heats When prospective Democratic voters in this survey are offered three choices in a simulated June 1994 Democratic primary - Kathlee~ Brown leads the field with 36 %, Garamendi is next with 23 %, while Willie Brown trails at 18 %. Another 23 % are undecided. Despite a recent spate of publicity about the possibility of Willie Brown running for Governor, many political observers believe that the Assembly Speaker will not formally enter the primary. When Democratic voters are asked their preferences in a two-way candidate race, Kathleen Brown outpolls Garamendi 44 % to 30 %, with 26 % undecided. This is similar to the fmdings of a Field Poll study conducted last February. May February Kathleen Brown 44% 48% Garamendi 30 30 Undecided 26 22 L
. Wednesday, The Field Poll June 2, 1993 Page 4 General Election Pairines When Wilson is paired against each of the three Democratic possibilities in simulated general election match-ups among a cross-section of all registered voters, he loses to both Kathleen Brown and Garamendi by wide margins. A Wilson vs. Willie Brown match-up results in an even split at this point......y.c< T~~l~4./.........GerterillElecti6ri.preteren.~f'or. GQvernorifil994....... KathleenUriJWril's.wilsoft... (~6fig AtiR.cti~t~re~Y6ters) Kathleen Brown 53% 53% Wilson 30 37 Don't know 17 10........./.... 1'~b.eS... ~ne6d.ei~tion Prefer~~ t\srorg-6vernol\in1994 /...G~~en4j"~ \'Vil~Qn.... (Nfiogg.~IlI-~~t~y;()~ ~).. Garamendi 49% 51 % Wilson 30 35 Don't know 21 14 :.:-:,.:.: :-: :::.:->:-: '..-:. ' -. '-:-:, ',:.: :::-:'-,",'.:-:»:.,:-:-:.'.»»:::-:-..:- :-- '-:.:-:-:.- -.,, -,......<....1'i~'e~<.....ce..~EI(!ctionP..eferen~fo.. G()~etriorihl994 Wnii~~r()~r~ ~j~~llr... (~ollg~j!r~~~~~9t~) Willie Brown 39% N/A Wilson 39 N/A Don't know 22 N/A - N/A: Not asked 30
The Field Poll Wednesday, June 2, 1993 Page 5 Infonnation About the Survey Sample Details The survey was completed May 14-22, 1993 among a random statewide sample of 994 California adults, of whom 849 reported being registered to vote or who plan to register prior to the next statewide election, including 407 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 103 others. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods. Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory 95 % of the time results from the overall adult sample would be accurate within ± 3.2 percentage points, results from the total registered voter sample have a sampling error range of ± 3.5 points, results from the Democratic voter sample are accurate within ± 5.0 points, and results. from the Republican voter sample have a sampling error range of ± 5.6 points. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every ejfort was made to minili'ize such non-sampling errors. Questions Asked ASKED OF ALL ADULTS: What kind ofjob do you think Pete Wilson is doing as Governor of California - an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job? What kind ofjob do you think Willie Brown is doing as Assembly Speaker - an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job? What kind ofjob do you think Kathleen Brown is doing as State Treasurer - an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job? What kind of job do you think John Garamendi is doing as State Insurance Commissioner - an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job? ASKED OF REGISTERED OR UKELY TO REGISTER VOTERS: There will be an election next year for Governor of California and a number of prominent Democrats and RepUblicans have been mentioned as possible candidates. I am going to read the names of some of these people to you. For each, please tell me whether you would be inclined or not inclined to vote for that person, or whether you don't know enough about him or her to have an opinion. You may name as many or as few people as you want as being persons you would be inclined to vote for. Ifthe election were being held today would you be inclined or not inclined to vote for for Governor of California next year? (NAMES ROTATED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) ASKED OF REGISTERED OR UKELY TO REGISTER REPUBUCANS: Do you think. it would be a good thing or a bad thing for the Republican Party if one or more Republicans decided to challenge incumbent Governor Pete Wilson in the 1994 GOP gubernatorial primary? ASKED OF REGISTERED OR UKELY TO REGISTER DEMOCRATS: Suppose three Democrats were running for the Democratic nomination for Governor next year and the choices were (SEE RELEASE FOR CANDIDATES READ). If these were the candidates for next year's Democratic primary election for Governor, who would be your first choice? IF FIRST CHOICE GIVEN: Who would be your second choice? ASKED OF REGISTERED OR UKELY TO REGISTER VOTERS: I am going to read some match-ups between possible Democratic and RepUblican candidates for Governor in next year's general election. For each pairing, please tell me which candidate you would choose if the election for Governor were being held today. (SEE RELEASE FOR PAIRINGS) If these were the candidates for Governor in next year's general election, who would you prefer? (PAIRINGS ROTATED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS)