Federal Liberals score highest on Nanos Party Power Index Trudeau and Harper trending up on qualities of a good leader (Released 08/27/2014)

Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking (period ending August 22 nd, 2014) released August 27 th, 2014

Federal Liberals score highest on Nanos Party Power Index Trudeau and Harper trending up on qualities of a good leader (Released 08/27/2014) The latest Nanos Party Power Index has the federal Liberals at 58 points out of 100, followed by the Conservatives with points, the NDP with points, the Green Party with 34 points and the BQ with 28 points. In the diffusion scale out of 100, party index scores over suggest a positive draw. The Liberals are near their 12 month high while both the Conservatives and the NDP are nearer their own 12 month average on the index. When asked independent questions for each federal party and whether they would consider or not consider voting for that party, the Liberals had the highest comparative vote potential. Fifty-three percent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal while 42 percent would consider voting NDP, 38 percent would consider voting Conservative and 27 percent of Canadians would consider voting for the Green Party of Canada. On the preferred Prime Minister front, Trudeau has a marginal advantage over Harper. Thirty-two percent of Canadians said that Trudeau was their preferred choice for PM followed by Harper at 27 percent, Mulcair at 16 percent and May at six percent nationally. Both Harper s and Trudeau s scores for having the qualities of a good leader have been trending up over the past two weeks. www.nanosresearch.com 2

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. This Week Data Summary Last Week 4 Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago (Aug 2013) 12 Month High 12 Month Low 12 Month Average Canada Party Power Index Liberal 57.8 56.5 55.9 56.8 57.2 59.0 53.7 56.5 Conservative.1 48.7.5 51.6.7 53.7 48.4.6 NDP 49.7 52.2.4 49.7 48.1 52.3 46.3 49.1 Green 33.9 35.2 32.8 33.5 33.9 35.2 30.3 32.9 Bloc 27.8 26.1 26.3 27.6 28.7 29.2 24.5 27.1 Party Consider Liberal 52.5% 53.5% 55.0% 55.4%.2% 55.5% 47.2% 51.3% NDP 42.0% 44.3% 43.4% 45.1% 41.6% 45.5% 37.9% 41.9% Conservative 37.7% 36.1% 41.7% 42.8% 38.1% 44.1% 36.1% 39.5% Bloc 32.6% 30.8% 27.2% 31.3% 44.0% 44.0% 22.4% 32.0% Green 27.2% 30.0% 29.9% 26.2% 27.3% 33.1% 22.7% 27.4% Preferred Prime Minister Trudeau 31.8% 31.8% 30.1% 30.0% 31.5% 33.3%.8% 29.7% Harper 27.3%.5% 30.3% 29.9% 28.2% 32.4%.2% 28.6% Mulcair 15.5% 18.7% 19.7% 16.7% 15.4% 20.5% 13.7% 17.9% May 6.0% 6.3% 4.9% 6.7% 6.0% 6.7% 3.7% 5.3% Beaulieu 1.3% 1.5% 2.8% 1.7% 2.3% 2.8% 0.9% 1.7% Unsure 18.1% 16.2% 12.2% 15.2% 16.6% 20.2% 12.2% 16.8% www.nanosresearch.com 3

Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference. The Nanos Party Power Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions include: a ballot question that captures the 1 st and 2 nd vote preferences; a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party; the 1 st and 2 nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and, whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time. The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to another. www.nanosresearch.com 4

Party Power Index Tracking by Region www.nanosresearch.com 6

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Atlantic is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 75 70 65 62 60 55 45 40 Atlantic Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=100) 55 49 67 49 43 35 30 32 32 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 7

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Quebec is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 65 60 55 Quebec Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=248) 58 57 58 57 45 40 39 43 35 30 32 31 29 28 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 8

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Ontario is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 65 Ontario Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=300) 60 58 59 55 45 57 53 46 40 43 35 30 33 33 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 9

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Prairies is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 70 65 60 55 62 54 45 Prairies Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=200) 58 56 47 40 35 38 33 37 30 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 10

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for BC is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 70 65 60 60 55 45 British Columbia Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=152) 49 53 49 40 35 38 39 30 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 11

Party Power Index Tracking by Age www.nanosresearch.com 12

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 18 to 29 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 65 60 56 55 52 45 18 to 29 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=205) 59 51 47 40 35 30 38 33 39 33 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 13

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 30 to 39 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 65 60 58 55 51 46 45 40 37 35 30 to 39 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=169) 64 54 48 41 30 32 30 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 14

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 40 to 49 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for PM, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 65 60 60 55 40 to 49 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=208) 57 52 54 54 45 40 43 35 30 31 29 26 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 15

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the to 59 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 65 59 60 55 45 40 to 59 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=178) 49 57 49 48 35 30 32 30 29 34 20 15 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 16

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 60 plus age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 60 plus Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=239) 60 55 55 45 40 54 49 54 48 47 35 30 20 30 29 29 23 15 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 17

Party Power Index Tracking by Gender www.nanosresearch.com 18

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for males is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples. 60 55 45 40 Male Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=478) 57 59 56 47 51 35 30 31 29 31 20 15 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 19

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for females is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples. 65 60 55 Female Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=521) 58 49 57 49 45 40 47 35 30 35 32 36 31 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 20

National Vote Considerations Tracking www.nanosresearch.com 24

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party 100% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 6% 11% 12% 8% 10% 10% 10% 8% 11% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 11% 80% 52% % 51% 51% 47% 54% 52% 55% 51% % % % 51% 53% 51% 60% 40% 42% 39% 38% 41% 42% 37% 39% 37% 38% 39% 41% 42% 41% 39% 38% 20% 0% 2013-06 2013-09- 2013-10- 2013-11- 2013-12- 2014-01- 2014-02- 2014-04- 2014-05- 2014-06- 2014-07- 07 12 16 21 28 04 09 13 18 Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure 2014-08- 22 www.nanosresearch.com

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] NDP National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 12% 11% 12% 10% 13% 12% 12% 10% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 8% 14% 90% 80% 30% 48% 45% 48% 44% 49% 47% 49% 48% 49% 43% 46% 48% 48% 44% 70% 60% % 58% 40% 41% 43% 42% 43% 40% 41% 41% 39% 40% 46% 43% 43% 44% 42% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013-06 2013-09- 07 2013-10- 12 2013-11- 16 2013-12- 21 2014-01- 2014-02- 28 2014-04- 04 2014-05- 09 2014-06- 13 Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure 2014-07- 18 2014-08- 22 www.nanosresearch.com 26

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party 100% 12% 10% 11% 10% 12% 10% 13% 11% 13% 12% 9% 10% 10% 7% 10% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 26% 40% 38% 39% 41% 38% 38% 42% 36% 39% 36% 37% 35% 40% 38% 70% 60% % 40% 62% % 52% % 47% 53% % 47% 51% % 55% 53% 55% 54% 53% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013-06 2013-09- 07 2013-10- 12 2013-11- 16 2013-12- 21 2014-01- 2014-02- 28 2014-04- 04 2014-05- 09 2014-06- 13 Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure 2014-07- 18 2014-08- 22 www.nanosresearch.com 27

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois 100% 13% 9% 6% 9% 8% 9% 8% 7% 12% 10% 7% 8% 10% 6% 7% 90% 80% Quebec only Weekly Tracking Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=248) 52% 51% 59% 60% 59% 59% 56% 58% 64% 56% 62% 59% 65% 63% 61% 70% 60% % 40% 40% 30% 35% 20% 35% 30% 33% 32% 36% 35% 24% 34% 31% 33% % 31% 33% 10% 0% 2013-06 2013-09- 07 2013-10- 12 2013-11- 16 2013-12- 21 2014-01- 2014-02- 28 2014-04- 04 2014-05- 09 2014-06- 13 Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure 2014-07- 18 2014-08- 22 www.nanosresearch.com 28

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Green Party 100% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 16% 11% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 12% 11% 10% 11% 8% 8% 12% 46% 61% 62% 66% 61% 63% 63% 62% 64% 62% 63% 62% 59% 61% 61% 70% 60% % 40% 38% 30% 20% 27% 26% 24% 30% 27% 26% 28% 24% 27% 28% 27% 33% 31% 27% 10% 0% 2013-06 2013-09- 07 2013-10- 12 2013-11- 16 2013-12- 21 2014-01- 2014-02- 28 2014-04- 04 2014-05- 09 2014-06- 13 Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure 2014-07- 18 2014-08- 22 www.nanosresearch.com 29

National Leadership Tracking www.nanosresearch.com 30

Question: Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY LEADERS] 35% 30% % National Weekly Tracking First Ranked Choice (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 30% 29% 32% 27% 20% 17% 15% 16% 18% 16% 10% 6% 6% 5% 1% 1% 0% Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP) Beaulieu (Bloc) Elizabeth May (Green) Unsure www.nanosresearch.com 31

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen Harper National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 90% 80% 70% 7% 7% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 9% 10% 9% 7% 38% 42% 39% 36% 41% 39% 43% 42% 40% 44% 37% 35% 36% 37% 60% % 55% % 55% 54% % 53% 49% % 52% 53% 56% 55% 54% 49% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013-08- 10 2013-09- 14 2013-10- 19 2013-11- 23 2013-12- 28 2014-02- 01 2014-03- 07 2014-04- 11 2014-05- 16 2014-06- 20 2014-07- Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure www.nanosresearch.com 32

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas Mulcair National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 100% % 27% 29% 26% 21% % % 23% 24% 23% 22% 26% 24% 24% 90% 80% 70% 30% 28% 28% 28% 31% 26% 29% 27% 29% 28% 28% 27% 26% % 60% % 40% 45% 44% 43% 43% 51% 49% 46% 49% 48% % 51% 47% 51% 52% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013-08- 10 2013-09- 14 2013-10- 19 2013-11- 23 2013-12- 28 2014-02- 01 2014-03- 07 2014-04- 11 2014-05- 16 2014-06- 20 2014-07- Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure www.nanosresearch.com 33

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin Trudeau National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 16% 17% 18% 14% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 14% 13% 14% 16% 13% 90% 80% 29% 32% 29% 32% 31% 31% 33% 32% 34% 34% 32% 34% 33% 24% 70% 60% % 55% 54% 58% 54% 52% 53% 55% 54% 53% 52% 53% 54% 52% 53% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013-08- 10 2013-09- 14 2013-10- 19 2013-11- 23 2013-12- 28 2014-02- 01 2014-03- 07 2014-04- 11 2014-05- 16 2014-06- 20 2014-07- Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure www.nanosresearch.com 34

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] André Bellavance Quebec only Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=248) 100% 37% 29% 38% 29% 28% 33% 31% 28% 30% 33% 28% 33% 37% 27% 90% 80% 70% % 52% 48% % 48% % 46% 49% 49% 45% 49% 60% 40% 48% 46% % 40% 30% 20% 23% 10% % 15% 21% 21% 18% 20% 23% 21% 22% 24% 19% 17% 23% 0% 2013-08- 10 2013-09- 14 2013-10- 19 2013-11- 23 2013-12- 28 2014-02- 01 2014-03- 07 2014-04- 11 2014-05- 16 2014-06- 20 2014-07- Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure www.nanosresearch.com 35

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending August 22 nd, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 26% 29% 29% 28% 26% 30% 28% 27% 28% 27% % 28% 28% 27% 90% 80% 70% 43% 41% 40% 44% 40% 40% 41% 43% 46% 39% 40% 38% 38% 38% 60% % 40% 30% 31% 30% 31% 20% 28% 33% 30% 32% 30% 26% 34% 35% 34% 34% 35% 10% 0% 2013-08- 10 2013-09- 14 2013-10- 19 2013-11- 23 2013-12- 28 2014-02- 01 2014-03- 07 2014-04- 11 2014-05- 16 2014-06- 20 2014-07- Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure www.nanosresearch.com 36

Methodology www.nanosresearch.com 37

Survey Methodology The Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 0 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 0 interviews is dropped and a new group of 0 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time. The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending August 22 nd, 2014. A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com 38

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