1. National Opinion Poll: July 20 - for Publication on 3 rd August 20
Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 3 rd August 20. The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, preferred ways to address the Budget deficit and Garth Brooks. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 967 interviews were conducted at 66 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 18 th 30 th July 20. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2. 2.
Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 967 adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-toface basis in the home at 66 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2. POLL The 967 interviews on the poll were carried out between 18 th 30 th July 20. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 20. 3.
4. Summary
Dissatisfaction with leaders remains at an all-time high (I) The latest of our opinion poll series shows that, politically, Ireland remains a fundamentally dissatisfied place. We continue to record historically high public dissatisfaction with the leaders of all of the major political parties in the country. This indicates, quite simply, that we have lost trust not only in the current leaders of parties in Government but also in the leaders of the alternative parties currently in opposition. The democratic deficit is wide and shows no imminent sign of being bridged. Our poll shows that Sinn Fein has registered its strongest ever poll performance, reaching 24 and in touching distance of Fine Gael s 25 - one of its poorest scores since early 2013. Fianna Fail is also likely to be disappointed by its 20 first preference score, after excluding don t knows. The remarkably high 23 of the electorate who would give their first preference to an Independent (or member of one of the other political parties) could be viewed as a rejection of the existing leading parties. Independents support is common to all classes and age groups. This poll was taken not long after the emergence of Joan Burton as the new leader of the Labour party and the unveiling of the new team of Ministers. Labour might have hoped for a bounce in their polling fortunes but this is not statistically significant in moving from 6 to 7. Joan Burton s satisfaction rating is up a full 11 on Eamonn Gilmore s last rating of 16. Yet, we should recall that Joan Burton s satisfaction rating is still as low as the other party leaders and is indicative of the broad political leadership malaise. We should also note that one third of the electorate do not yet know what to make of her performance in this role. She is being given some chance to make her impact as can be seen from the minority belief that she will have an impact on mitigating the Government s austerity policy. What is clear, however, is that Labour supporters are firmly behind her 80 of them express satisfaction with her performance. This vindicates the lengthy selection process. 5.
Dissatisfaction with leaders remains at an all-time high (II) One of the more intriguing aspects of this poll is the obvious public enthusiasm for a greater role for women in top political positions. Nearly half of the general public would have liked more women promoted in the recent Cabinet reshuffle, over a quarter felt that the number of women was just right and only 6 felt that fewer women should have been promoted The austerity policies of the past number of years have certainly not endeared Labour or Fine Gael to the electorate. The level of satisfaction with the Government (23) is on a par with 2003 figures but is well above the abysmal 3 satisfaction recorded by the Cowen-led Government in its final throes. Nevertheless, this Government satisfaction rating is hardly a reassuring prospect for TDs from Government parties as they take their summer holidays you can almost hear the cries of something has to give, or rather be given. So, after the mid-term local and European elections, what can we expect in the remaining part of the Government s term of office? Firstly, expectations of a full term are again held by half of the electorate, up from June s figures and probably reflecting the new Labour leadership and the Cabinet reshuffle. Secondly, under a quarter of the public feel that a 2billion adjustment should be applied in the next Budget: it is time to loosen the tourniquet. Thirdly, any loosening needs to consider that the public continues to worry about living standards - 4 in 10 feel worse off than last year and 1 in 3 expect to be worse off over the next 12 months. These perceptions are broadly held but slightly more pronounced among working class voters. Water charges and their application will be a particular case in point and we only need to think back to the medical card review process to realise how dangerous such decisions can be. We should, however, note that this poll shows more people feeling that the last 12 months have left them the same economically(43) than feel worse off (41) for the first time since 2009. Similarly, more people expect to be the same economically(41) rather than worse off (33) over the next 12 months. 6.
Dissatisfaction with leaders remains at an all-time high (III) It is also worth noting that Ireland may well be in the midst of a movement from civil war politics to left/right politics. Support for none of the parties now runs smoothly across all classes. Fine Gael is most popular among white-collar and farming households. Sinn Fein is markedly stronger among blue-collar households. Far from its demise predicted by some pundits, Fianna Fail stands in third place in the polls at present: its twin concerns are the agedness of its support (strongest among the over 65s) and Sinn Fein s edge among its working class support base. Labour is clearly about to embark on a process of self-redefinition and will be very keen to find meaningful differences from Sinn Fein, People before Profit, the United Left Alliance and other left-leaning alternatives. How this plays out will determine how Labour performs at the next General Election. The next few months will be crucial for the Government s mapping of the next stretch of the carriageway and for the opposition parties to pick out the potholes in the new roadmap. The restoration of public trust in political parties will require significant and sustained effort from all parties if the electorate is not to fall into a permanent state of austerity exhaustion and political despair. 7.
8. The Results
9. National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trend Questions
Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows Base: All Aged 18+ General Election Result Feb 2011 Opinion Poll 18 th 30 th July Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll 18 th 30 th July Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 36 Fine Gael Labour 17 5 25 Fianna Fáil 7 Labour 19 Independents/Others 16 20 Fianna Fáil The Green Party 17 2 Sinn Féin Green Party 17 1 23 Independents/others Sinn Féin 15 10 Don t know 31 24 1 10. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Feb 6th 13th 2013 Feb 16th 28th 2013 Mar 4th th 2013 Mar 30th Apr 10th 2013 May 5 th - 16 th 2013 May 17 th 28 th 2013 June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 20 Feb 19 th - 28 th 20 Apr 5 th -15 th 20 Jul 18 th 30 th 20 Fine Gael 25 24 25 24 23 27 26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 Fianna Fáil 27 23 29 27 26 27 29 28 25 27 27 24 26 21 22 20 Sinn Féin Labour Green Party United Left Alliance* Independents/others 20 13 1 21 20 11 2 9 1 1 * 19 16 16 19 17 19 21 19 19 19 21 16 12 12 11 8 8 8 10 9 9 2 12 1 * 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 * - 1-18 18 17 18 15 18 17 18 15 22 24 20 8 6 7 2 2 1 - - - 20 21 23 11. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference FINE GAEL FIANNA FÁIL SINN FÉIN LABOUR GREEN PARTY INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* 30 29 27 27 28 29 27 27 27 26 24 25 25 24 23 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 26 25 24 23 21 22 20 21 20 19 17 16 21 19 19 21 19 19 16 24 22 20 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 7 23 20 21 19 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 16 15 15 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 18th 30th July 20 5 th 15 th April 20 19 th - 28 th Feb 20 15 th 24 th Jan 3 rd 13 th Nov 30 th Sept 9 th Oct September 13 th 25 th August 17 th 27 th August 3 rd 12 th June 20 th 28 th May 17 th 28 th May 5 th 16 th Mar 30 th 10 th Apr Mar 4 th th Feb 16 th 28 th 18th 30th July 20 5 th 15 th April 20 19 th - 28 th Feb 20 15 th 24 th Jan 3 rd 13 th Nov 30 th Sept 9 th Oct September 13 th 25 th August 17 th 27 th August 3 rd 12 th June 20 th 28 th May 17 th 28 th May 5 th 16 th Mar 30 th 10 th Apr Mar 4 th th Feb 16 th 28 th 18th 30th July 20 5 th 15 th April 20 19 th - 28 th Feb 20 15 th 24 th Jan 3 rd 13 th Nov 30 th Sept 9 th Oct September 13 th 25 th August 17 th 27 th August 3 rd 12 th June 20 th 28 th May 17 th 28 th May 5 th 16 th Mar 30 th 10 th Apr Mar 4 th th Feb 16 th 28 th 18th 30th July 20 5 th 15 th April 20 19 th - 28 th Feb 20 15 th 24 th Jan 3 rd 13 th Nov 30 th Sept 9 th Oct September 13 th 25 th August 17 th 27 th August 3 rd 12 th June 20 th 28 th May 17 th 28 th May 5 th 16 th Mar 30 th 10 th Apr Mar 4 th th Feb 16 th 28 th 18th 30th July 20 5 th 15 th April 20 19 th - 28 th Feb 20 15 th 24 th Jan 3 rd 13 th Nov 30 th Sept 9 th Oct September 13 th 25 th August 17 th 27 th August 3 rd 12 th June 20 th 28 th May 17 th 28 th May 5 th 16 th Mar 30 th 10 th Apr Mar 4 th th Feb 16 th 28 th 18th 30th July 20 5 th 15 th April 20 19 th - 28 th Feb 20 15 th 24 th Jan 3 rd 13 th Nov 30 th Sept 9 th Oct September 13 th 25 th August 17 th 27 th August 3 rd 12 th June 20 th 28 th May 17 th 28 th May 5 th 16 th Mar 30 th 10 th Apr Mar 4 th th Feb 16 th 28 th 12. *ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards *People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 20) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
Satisfaction with the way the Government is running the country has remained consistent since April s poll Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Almost one in four are happy with the Current performance HIGHER AMONG Females 74 Aged 45-54 75 C2DEs 75 Leinster Residents 77 Fianna Fail Supporters 82 Sinn Fein Supporters 90 Independents Supporters 79 Dissatisfied (66) Satisfied 23 69 8 (24) Don t know (9) HIGHER AMONG Males 26 Aged 35-44 28 ABs 34 Dublin Residents 29 Fine Gael Supporters 62 Labour Supporters 36 ( )= April 20 Results 13. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with Government Over Time Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Mar 13 Apr 13 May 5 th 16 th 13 May 17 th - 28 th 13 June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th 13 Sept 13 th - 25 th 13 Sept 30 th - Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th Feb 19 th 28 th 20 Apr 5 th -15 th 2013 Jul 18 th 30 th 20 Dissatisfied 74 75 73 74 75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71 66 69 Satisfied 20 17 19 18 17 19 19 20 21 19 23 20 24 23 Don t know 7 8 8 8 7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8.
Satisfaction with Party Leaders Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Enda Kenny Eamon Gilmore Joan Burton* (July ) Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Late Jun Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Late Jun Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr *Jul Late Jun Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Late Jun Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Satisfied 25 25 24 27 25 25 28 25 27 27 16 16 15 17 16 16 16 18 16 27 30 29 28 27 30 26 25 28 26 27 24 24 25 24 23 22 19 28 26 25 Dissatisfied 64 66 67 64 67 66 62 65 62 61 72 71 72 70 72 73 68 68 69 40 56 56 54 55 55 59 57 54 56 49 57 57 57 56 59 63 62 52 54 46 Don t know (10) (8) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (10) (11) (13) (12) (12) (13) (13) (12) (11) (16) () (15) (33) (13) (15) (18) (18) (15) (15) (18) (19) (18) (24) (19) (19) (18) (20) (17) (15) (20) (20) (21) (28) 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny Base: All Aged 18+ (967) HIGHER AMONG Aged 55-64 65 C2DEs 67 Leinster Residents 67 Fianna Fail Supporters 75 Sinn Fein Supporters 84 Independents Supporters 71 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied 27 (27) 61 13 Don t know (11) HIGHER AMONG Males 31 Aged 35-44 32 Aged 65+ 32 ABs 36 Farmers 48 Fine Gael Supporters 74 Labour Supporters 40 ( )= April 20 Results 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Satisfaction with Joan Burton Base: All Aged 18+ (967) HIGHER AMONG Aged 25-34 43 Aged 35-44 45 C2DEs 45 Sinn Fein Supporters 61 Dissatisfied 40 27 33 Satisfied Don t know HIGHER AMONG Aged 55-64 37 Aged 65+ 38 Farmers 42 ABC1s 31 Munster Residents 33 Fine Gael Supporters 45 Labour Supporters 80 April Figures for Eamon Gilmore Satisfied 16 Dissatisfied 69 Don t Know 15 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin Base: All Aged 18+ (967) HIGHER AMONG Aged 35-44 56 Aged 55-64 58 C2s 57 Fine Gael Supporters 56 Sinn Fein Supporters 70 Dissatisfied (56) Satisfied 27 (26) 49 24 HIGHER AMONG Aged 65+ 39 ABC1s 31 Munster Residents 33 Fianna Fail Supporters 64 Labour Supporters 39 Don t know (18) ( )= April 20 Results 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?
Satisfaction with Gerry Adams Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Higher Among Aged 55-64 53 Aged 65+ 52 Farmers 56 Munster Residents 50 Fianna Fail Supporters 54 Fine Gael Supporters 59 Independents Supporters 51 Dissatisfied (54) 25 Satisfied (26) 46 28 Don t know (21) Higher Among Males 29 Aged 55-64 29 C2DEs 30 Munster Residents 28 Sinn Fein Supporters 68 ( )= April 20 Results 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support Base: All Aged 18+ (967) SATISFIED Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent Supporters Enda Kenny 27 74 40 17 8 17 Joan Burton 27 45 80 37 16 22 Michéal Martin 27 24 39 64 17 28 Gerry Adams 25 17 23 25 68 17 DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny 61 21 46 75 84 71 Joan Burton 40 26 5 37 61 42 Michéal Martin 49 56 42 25 70 50 Gerry Adams 46 59 49 54 19 51 20. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
21. National Opinion Poll: July 20 - Special Questions for Publication on 3 rd August 20
One in two have full confidence that the current Government will last until 2016 Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Yes Will the present Fine Gael/Labour Government run its full term? HIGHER AMONG Apr 51 Jun 40 Jul 50 Males 55 Aged 55-64 55 Aged 65+ 56 ABC1s 58 Conn/Ulster Residents 55 Fianna Fail Supporters 62 Fine Gael Supporters 74 Labour Supporters 67 No It depends Don t know 46 24 36 8 3 4 19 10 10 HIGHER AMONG DEs 29 Munster Residents 29 Sinn Fein Supporters 41 Independents Supporters 33 22. Q. Do you believe that the present Fine Gael/Labour Government will run its full term to 2016 or not?
Two in five believe that Joan Burton will change Government s austerity policies Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Yes, she will change policy a lot (10) Any Yes 39 NO HIGHER AMONG Males 44 Aged 35-44 48 Farmers 47 Munster Residents 45 Conn/Ulster Residents 50 Fianna Fail Supporters 46 Sinn Fein Supporters 48 Independents Supporters 47 No (53) 41 15 25 20 Don t Know (10) Yes, she will change policy a little (27) Any YES HIGHER AMONG Aged 55-64 50 Aged 65+ 44 ABs 48 Dublin Residents 48 Fine Gael Supporters 52 Labour Supporters 66 ( )= June 20 Asked as New leader of the Labour Party 23. Q. And do you believe that the new leader of the Labour party, Joan Burton, will be successful in changing the Government s current policy towards austerity?
A third believe that Labour should pull out of Government if austerity is not relaxed Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Yes (52) HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Aged 35-44 38 Aged 55-64 40 ABs 39 Conn/Ulster Residents 37 32 18 It Depends (11) Aged 65+ 35 Munster Residents 38 Fianna Fail Supporters 38 Sinn Fein Supporters 50 Fine Gael Supporters 46 Labour Supporters 38 33 18 No (30) Don t Know (7) ( )= June 20 24. Q. Do you think the Labour Party should pull out of coalition, if they do not achieve a change in the Government s current policy towards austerity?
Almost half believe that more women should have been promoted in the Cabinet re-shuffle Base: All Aged 18+ (967) HIGHER AMONG Dublin Residents 10 Fewer women should have been promoted 6 48 More women should have been promoted HIGHER AMONG Females 58 Aged 55-64 55 Aged 65+ 58 Farmers 61 28 18 Munster Residents 59 Fianna Fail Supporters 59 HIGHER AMONG Males 33 Aged 35-44 35 Dublin Residents 38 The right balance of women were promoted Don t know/ no opinion Fine Gael Supporters 52 Labour Supporters 57 25. Q. There has been a lot of discussion about the number of women who were promoted in the recent Cabinet re-shuffle. Which of these statements best reflects your own views?
Opinions on the number of women promoted in the Cabinet re-shuffle X Gender Base: All Aged 18+ (967) More Women should have been promoted Fewer women should have been promoted The right balance of women were promoted Don t know 58 48 37 28 33 23 18 22 15 6 7 5 Total Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females 26. Q. There has been a lot of discussion about the number of women who were promoted in the recent Cabinet re-shuffle. Which of these statements best reflects your own views?
Personal situation: 4 in 10 say they are personally worse off than last year and 1 in 3 expect to be worse off next year Base: All aged 18+ (967) July 2013 Compared to last year This time next year? July 2015 Better Off 13 Better Off 18 Worse off Same 43 Same 41 Worse off HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Aged 55-64 48 Farmers 47 Conn/Ulster Residents 48 Worse Off 41 Worse Off 33 Aged 55-64 39 Aged 65+ 39 DEs 36 Farmers 49 Sinn Fein Supporters 50 Leinster Residents 39 Undecided 51 Don t know Net Change 3-28 Don t know Net Difference 8-15 Munster Residents 39 Fianna Fail Supporters 40 Sinn Fein Supporters 39 27. Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR? Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now?
Historical picture: Personal situation compared to this time last year Base: All aged 18+ (967) Compared to last year 100 Better Off Same Worse Off 80 60 40 20 0 Net Change 49 34 17 Pre Celtic Tiger '92 59 60 27 Mid Celtic Tiger '97 24 15 16 Post 9/11 '02 46 27 46 43 11 66 29 59 60 34 33 32 5 6 7 57 10 68 27 33 4 4 61 63 64 29 31 32 7 6 59 8 8 64 27 57 31 43 41 12 13 Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul ' -17 +12 +8 +0-35 -61-53 -53-47 -64-57 -56-58 -51-56 -45-28 28. Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR?
Historical Picture: personal situation this time next year Base: All aged 18+ (967) This time next year? 100 Better off Same Worse off 80 60 40 20 0 Net Difference 54 36 10 89 90 91 Pre Celtic Tiger '92 68 22 8 9 93 94 95 96 Mid Celtic Tiger '97 58 33 63 26 11 46 38 52 33 16 15 40 37 17 52 47 54 32 34 30 10 13 11 98 00 Post Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul ' 9/11 '02 +26 +19 +18 + +18 +22 +20 +19 +24 +19 +20 +15 +9-30 -37-23 -17-23 -41-26 -38-42 -34-43 -31-15 45 36 41 33 18 29. Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now?
Almost half feel that 2 billion adjustment is too large, but a quarter think Government should stick to it Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Yes, they will have to stick to the adjustment (28) HIGHER AMONG Aged 35-44 50 Farmers 59 Munster Residents 51 Fianna Fail Supporters 53 No, a lesser amount is required (56) 45 23 12 20 It Depends (8) HIGHER AMONG Aged 55-64 29 ABs 35 Dublin Residents 30 Fine Gael Supporters 28 Fine Gael Supporters 51 Independents Supporters 51 Don t know/ no opinion (8) Sinn Fein Supporters 28 ( )= June 20 30. Q. The Government has committed to an adjustment of 2bn in this October s budget next year in order to reduce the deficit to less than 3pc of GDP by 2016. Do you believe the Government has to stick to this 2bn adjustment or do you think a lesser amount is required?
Most of the blame for the Garth Brooks debacle is attributed to Aiken Promotions and Owen Keegan Base: All Aged 18+ (967) Most to blame Any blame Aiken Promotions 17 39 The Dublin City Manager Owen Keegan 17 36 Garth Brooks 15 31 The local residents who objected 31 The GAA 11 30 The Government 5 All of them 7 10 Don t Know (NET) 12 31. Q. Finally, who do you think was most to blame for the cancellation of all five Garth Brooks concerts scheduled to take place in Croke Park this month? Q. Who else was to blame?
32. For more information, contact: Roger Jupp at 087 260 3430 Colm O Cleary at 087 122 2689 Clare Kavanagh at 087 667 2230