Investment and Business Environment in the Arab World Tarik H. Alami Director, a.i. Economic Development and Globalization Division United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA)
OUTLINE Economic Situation and Prospects and challenges in the Arab Region Investment and Business Environment in the Arab Region Time as a tax and trade barrier The Importance of Trade and Transport Facilitation for Doing Business Some Doing Business Indicators
Economic Situation and Prospects in the Arab Region Strong recovery in growth rates in Western Asia Real GDP Growth Rate, in percentage 8 7 6.4 6 4 2 0-2 -4 5.3 1.6 2 2.3-2 4.5 4.7 2008 2009 2010a/ 2011a/ Western Asia Developing Countries World 3.6 6 3.1 Sources: Figures for Western Asia are ESCWA staff calculation based on national sources. Other figures are from UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, LINK Global Economic Outlook, October 2010. a/ The Project LINK forecasts as of October 2010.
Economic Situation and Prospects in the Arab Region REAL GDP GROWTH RATE AND CONSUMER INFLATION RATE, 2007-2011 (Annual % change) Real GDP Growth rate Consumer inflation rate Country/Area 2007 2008 2009 a/ 2010 b/ 2011 c/ 2007 2008 2009 2010 b/ 2011 c/ Bahrain 84 8.4 63 6.3 31 3.1 40 4.0 38 3.8 33 3.3 35 3.5 28 2.8 22 2.2 19 1.9 Kuwait 4.5 5.5-4.6 4.4 3.6 5.5 10.6 4.0 3.5 3.2 Oman 6.8 12.8 3.6 4.3 3.9 5.9 12.6 3.5 2.4 1.8 Qatar 26.8 25.4 8.6 13.4 14.0 13.8 15.2-4.9-1.6 1.0 Saudi Arabia 20 2.0 42 4.2 06 0.6 34 3.4 38 3.8 41 4.1 99 9.9 51 5.1 49 4.9 45 4.5 United Arab Emirates 6.2 7.4-1.9 2.7 3.2 11.1 12.3 1.6 0.3 1.0 GCC countries d/ 4.9 6.6 0.1 4.0 4.2 6.3 10.8 3.6 3.3 3.2 Egypt e/ 72 7.2 47 4.7 52 5.2 55 5.5 62 6.2 95 9.5 17.11 11.8 12.5 11.0 Iraq 1.5 9.5 4.2 5.0 5.5 30.8 2.7-2.8 2.5 4.0 Jordan 8.5 7.6 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.7 13.9-0.7 4.0 4.2 Lebanon 7.5 9.3 8.5 6.9 5.6 6.7 10.0 1.2 3.1 2.5 OPT 5.4 5.9 6.8 4.5 4.7 1.9 9.9 2.8 3.2 3.5 The Sudan 10.2 6.0 4.5 6.2 6.0 8.1 14.9 11.2 13.2 11.0 The Syrian Arab Republic 5.7 4.3 5.9 6.2 6.0 4.5 15.2 2.8 4.3 4.0 Yemen e 4.7 4.5 4.7 3.5 3.2 7.9 19.0 5.4 8.5 8.9 More Diversified Economies d/ 6.3 6.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 11.5 13.8 6.7 8.7 8.0 Total ESCWA region 5.4 6.4 2.0 4.5 4.7 8.2 11.9 4.7 5.2 5.0
Economic Situation and Prospects in the Arab Region WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 2005-2009(Per cent) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009a/ World 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.8 6.6 Developed economies and European Union 6.9 6.3 5.7 6.0 8.4 Central and Eastern Europe (non-eu) and Commonwealth of Independent States 9.4 9.0 8.3 8.3 10.3 East Asia 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.4 South-East Asia and the Pacific 6.5 6.1 5.4 5.3 5.6 South Asia 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.1 Latin America and the Caribbean 8.0 7.4 7.0 7.0 8.2 Middle East 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.4 North Africa 11.5 10.4 10.1 10.0 10.5 Sub-SaharanSaharan Africa 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.2 Sources: International Labour Office, Global Employment Trends January 2010, Table A2 Unemployment rate, world and regions. a/ Preliminary estimate by ILO
1. Volatile Growth rates Acknowledged challenges 2. Unemployment, poverty and increasing disparities 3. Little economic diversification and weak industrial base 4. Limited regional integration 5. Weak Environment for attracting and doing business
% 1. Volatile Growth rates 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Real GDP Growth Rate by subregion, and Crude Oil Average Price 6.6 94.45 6 61.06 0.1 77.1 78 5.2 5.4 5.7 4 42 4.2 2008 2009a/ 2010a/ 2011a/ 100 90 80 70 GCC Countries More Diversified Economies Crude Oil Average prices 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 $/barrel Sources: ESCWA staff calculation based on national sources. a/ November 2010 estimations and forecasts. OPEC for 2008. Figures for 2009 and 2010 are forecasts as of December 2010.
2. Weak link between growth and unemployment 30 Unemployment Rates, in percentage 25 20 15 10 5 0 Saudi Arabia Egypt Iraq Jordan Palestine Sudan Syrian Arab Republic 2007 2008 2009 Yemen World Average Source: national sources.
3. Little Diversification % Manufacturing Value Added as % of GDP 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 MENA Developing Countries Export Concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschmann) Index (1995 (blue) and 2007 (red))* GCC Oil and Gas Revenues as % of Total Revenues 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates 2007 2008 2009 * Scale 0-1 with 1 representing total concentration. By comparison Source: Compiled by ESCWA from different sources East Asia has been around 0.10-0.15 in both 1995 and 2007
3. Poverty large and heavily concentrated in rural areas. 1. Poverty is still large and heavily concentrated in rural areas. 2. Poverty rates in LDC are still double the average for the region 3. Insufficient progress to meet the hunger target,
4. Limited regional integration Intra-regional Trade of Selected Trade Integrated Regions, In percentage 70 60 50 40 20 2007 30 2007 10 0 ASEAN European MERCOSUR NAFTA GCC Arab Union Countries Countries Source: ESCWA Annual Review of Developments in Globalization and Regional Integration in the Arab Countries, 2008 and 2009
5. Investment and Business Environment in the Arab Region World Bank: Doing Business 2011, Trading across borders, Exports and Imports (PP. 30-31) Economy Documents to export (number) Time to export (days) Cost to export (US$ per container) Documents to import (number) Time to import (days) Cost to import (US$ per container) East Asia & Pacific 6.4 22.7 889.8 6.9 24.1 934.7 Eastern Europe & Central Asia 64 6.4 26.7 1,651.70 76 7.6 28.1 1,845.40 40 Latin America & Caribbean 6.6 18 1,228.30 7.1 20.1 1,487.90 Middle East & North Africa 6.4 20.4 1,048.90 7.5 24.2 1,229.30 OECD 4.4 10.9 1,058.70 4.9 11.4 1,106.30 South Asia 8.5 32.3 1,511.60 9 32.5 1,744.50 Sub- Saharan Africa 7.7 32.3 1,961.50 8.7 38.2 2,491.80
5. Investment and Business Environment in the Arab Region World Bank: Doing Business 2010 40 Trading Across Borders Index 35 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2 5 33 1 3 7 4 10 3 13 15 77 8 9 12 95 11 14 6 16 18 21 0
Looking at the Index in more details Performance of Arab Countries in Trading Across Borders (2010) Who makes exporting easy- and who does not? Documents (number) Fewest Most United Arab Emirates 4 Egypt, Arab Rep. 6 Bahrain 5 West Bank and Gaza 6 Djibouti 5 Yemen, Rep. 6 Lebanon 5 Jordan 7 Qatar 5 Morocco 7 Saudi Arabia 5 Kuwait 8 Tunisia 4 Syrian Arab Republic 8 Ease of exporting in high income countries Algeria 8 Oman 9 Documents Iraq 10 (number) Time (days) Cost to export (US$ per container) Time (days) Fastest Slowest United Arab Emirates 8 Algeria 17 Tunisia 13 Jordan 17 Germany 4 7 872 Bahrain 14 Kuwait 17 Greece 5 20 1,153 Egypt, Arab Rep. 14 Oman 18 Morocco 14 Djibouti 19 Italy 4 20 1,231 Saudi Arabia 15 Qatar 21 Syrian Arab Republic 15 West Bank and Gaza 25 Singapore 4 5 456 Lebanon 26 United Kingdom 4 9 1,030 Yemen, Rep. 27 Iraq 102 United States 4 6 1,050 Cost to export (US$ per container) Least Most Saudi Arabia 532 Oman 821 United Arab Emirates 593 West Bank and Gaza 835 Morocco 700 Djibouti 836 Jordan 730 Bahrain 955 Qatar 735 Lebanon 1,002 Egypt, Arab Rep. 737 Kuwait 1,060 Tunisia 773 Yemen, Rep. 1,129 Syrian Arab Republic 1,190 Algeria 1,248 Iraq 3,900 Source: World Bank, Doing Business, 2010
Much Facilitation ti work is yet to be done! Performance of Arab Countries in Trading Across Borders (2010) Who makes importing easy- and who does not? Documents (number) Fewest Most Djibouti 5 Algeria 9 Saudi Arabia 5 Oman 9 United Arab Emirates 5 Syrian Arab Republic 9 Bahrain 6 Yemen, Rep. 9 Egypt, Arab Rep. 6 Iraq 10 West Bank and Gaza 6 Kuwait 10 Jordan 7 Morocco 10 Lebanon 7 Qatar 7 Tunisia 7 Time (days) Fastest Slowest United Arab Emirates 9 Syrian Arab Republic 21 Bahrain 15 Tunisia 21 Egypt, Arab Rep. 15 Algeria 23 Morocco 17 Oman 23 Djibouti 18 Yemen, Rep. 25 Saudi Arabia 18 Lebanon 35 Jordan 19 West Bank and Gaza 40 Kuwait 19 Iraq 101 Qatar 20 Cost to export (US$ per container) Least Most United Arab Emirates 579 Morocco 1,000 Qatar 657 Lebanon 1,203 Saudi Arabia 678 Kuwait 1,217 Egypt, Arab Rep. 823 West Bank and Gaza 1,225 Tunisia 858 Jordan 1,290 Oman 860 Algeria 1,428 Djibouti 911 Yemen, Rep. 1,475 Bahrain 995 Syrian Arab Republic 1,625 Iraq 3,900 Source: World Bank, Doing Business, 2010
Time as a tax and trade barrier Inefficient Procedural delays (e.g. time for customs clearance and cargo handling) are equivalent to a trade tax. Time delays narrow the profit margin and destroys capital on the exporting process and storage/transport t Reducing export times by 10 days is likely to have a bigger impact on exports (expanding by about 10 %) than any feasible liberalization in Europe or North America (Trading on Time, World Bank 2006, WPS3909) Simeon Djankov, Caroline Freund, Cong S. Pham. Trading on Time, http://doingbusiness.org/~/media/fpdkm/doing%20business/documents/ Methodology/Supporting-Papers/DB- Methodology-Trading-On-Time.pdf.) g Doubling of a country s transport costs leads to a drop in its trade of 80% or even higher (Why Trade Costs matter, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade, Working Paper Series, No 7., April 2006).
Time as a tax and trade barrier Getting products from factory to ship According to World Bank Study 2006, WPS3909) and based on the number of days to move cargo from the factory gate to the ship in 126 countries, A day s delay reduces relative exports competitiveness: of time-insensitive goods by1% & time-sensitive goods by 7 %. or lengthen distance by 85 km Simeon Djankov, Caroline Freund, Cong S. Pham. Trading on Time : http://doingbusiness.org/~/media/fpdkm/doing%20business/documents/ Methodology/Supporting-Papers/DB-Methodology- Trading-On-Time.pdf.)
Time as a tax and trade barrier Getting products from factory to ship The averages as areas Developed countries 12½days East Asia and the Pacific 24 days Sub Saharan Africa 47½days Central African Republics 18 to 116 days. Middle East and North Africa 28.40 Same source, table 2
The Importance of Trade and Transport Facilitation for Doing Business Impact of Transaction Costs and Time on Trade Direct and indirect trade transaction: costs 1-15 % of value of traded goods (OECD) TAD/TC/WP(2008)13/FINAL, PP. 18 The entire trade transaction: costs 7 to 10 % of the total value of world trade, where trade facilitation measures could reduce the costs by onequarter (UNCTAD) Trade facilitation (Nitya Nanda) http://www.centad.org/relatedinfo15.asp, PP.13 10 % increase in the time delays in exports reduces their volume by about 8 %, 10 % saving of time in exporting increases exports by about 4 percent (Djankovet al., World Bank, 2006) Higher transport cost is bad. As pointed out by Limao and Venables (2001), doubling of transport costs can lead to a drop in country s trade by about 80 percent. ( Regional Integration and Trade Costs in South Asia 1, Nilanjan Banik and John Gilbert, 2006, PP 13).
Starting a Business Doing Business Indicators Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita) Algeria 14 24 12.1 Bahrain 7 9 0.5 Djibouti 11 37 195.1 Egypt, Arab Rep. 6 7 16.1 Iraq 11 77 75.9 Jordan 8 13 49.5 Kuwait 13 35 1 Lebanon 5 9 78.2 Morocco 6 12 16.1 Oman 5 12 22 2.2 Qatar 6 6 7.1 Saudi Arabia 4 5 7.7 Syrian Arab Republic 7 15 27.8 Tunisia 10 11 5.7 United Arab Emirates 8 15 6.2 West Bank and Gaza 11 49 55 Yemen, Rep. 6 12 83 Germany 9 18 4.7 Greece 15 19 20.2 Singapore 3 3 0.7 United Kingdom 6 13 0.7 USA 6 6 0.7 Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2010
Doing Business Indicators Dealing with Construction Permits Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita) Algeria 22 240 39.6 Bahrain 13 43 54.6 Djibouti 16 179 2,145.60 Egypt, Arab Rep. 25 218 331.6 Iraq 14 215 397.9 Jordan 19 87 697.1 Kuwait 25 104 124.1 Lebanon 21 211 351.6 Morocco 19 163 263.7 Oman 15 186 100.8 Qatar 19 76 0.6 Saudi Arabia 17 94 32.8 Syrian Arab Republic 26 128 540.3 Tunisia 20 84 998.3 United Arab Emirates 17 64 30.7 West Bank and Gaza 21 199 1,110.6 Yemen, Rep. 15 107 144.1 Germany 12 100 60.2 Greece 15 169 50.7 Singapore 11 25 19.9 United Kingdom 11 95 69.1 USA 19 40 12.7 Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2010
Registering Property Doing Business Indicators Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of property value) Algeria 11 47 7.1 Bahrain 2 31 0.9 Djibouti 7 40 13.2 Egypt, Arab Rep. 7 72 0.9 Iraq 5 51 7.7 Jordan 7 21 75 7.5 Kuwait 8 55 0.5 Lebanon 8 25 5.8 Morocco 8 47 4.9 Oman 2 16 3 Qatar 10 16 0.3 Saudi Arabia 2 2 0 Syrian Arab Republic 4 19 28 Tunisia 4 39 6.1 United Arab Emirates 1 2 2 West Bank and Gaza 7 47 0.7 Yemen, Rep. 6 19 3.8 Germany 5 40 5.2 Greece 11 22 4 Italy 8 27 46 4.6 Singapore 3 5 2.8 United Kingdom 2 8 4.1 USA 4 12 0.5 Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2010
Doing Business Indicators Protecting Investors Strength of investor protection index (0 10) Enforcing Contracts Time (days) Algeria 5.3 630 Bahrain 5.7 635 Djibouti 2.3 1,225 Egypt, Arab Rep. 5.3 1,010 Iraq 4.3 520 Jordan 4.3 689 Kuwait 6.3 566 Lebanon 5 721 Morocco 3 615 Oman 5 598 Qatar 5 570 Saudi Arabia 7 635 Syrian Arab Republic 4.3 872 Tunisia 53 5.3 565 United Arab Emirates 4.3 537 West Bank and Gaza 6 600 Yemen, Rep. 4 520 Germany 5 394 Greece 3.3 819 Singapore 9.3 150 United Kingdom 8 399 USA 8.3 300 Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2010
Doing Business Indicators Closing a Business Time (years) Cost (% of estate) Algeria 2.5 7 Bahrain 2.5 10 Djibouti 5 18 Egypt, Arab Rep. 4.2 22 Iraq no practice no practice Jordan 4.3 9 Kuwait 42 4.2 1 Lebanon 4 22 Morocco 1.8 18 Oman 4 4 Qatar 2.8 22 Saudi Arabia 1.5 22 Syrian Arab Republic 4.1 9 Tunisia 1.3 7 United Arab Emirates 5.1 30 West Bank and Gaza no practice no practice Yemen, Rep. 3 8 Germany 1.2 8 Greece 2 9 Italy 18 1.8 22 Singapore 0.8 1 United Kingdom 1 6 USA 1.5 7 Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2010