South Asia Economic Focus- Spring 2015 Making the Most of Cheap Oil Selected insights from ongoing analysis Chief Economist Office, South Asia The World Bank
The growth impact of cheaper oil will vary widely Percent change in real GDP compared with baseline, 2015 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.8 World High-income Developing oil exporting developing oil importing developing Source: World Bank, MacroFiscal Model
The growth impact of cheaper oil is bound to be positive for South Asia These shares are the highest among all major developing regions
The elasticity of GDP to oil prices varies widely across South Asian countries Oil price elasticity of GDP Sri Lanka Pakistan (6) Nepal (5) Maldives (4) India Bhutan (3) Bangladesh (2) Afghanistan (1) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on World Bank, IMF and National authorities data
The speed of disinflation will be stronger in India Oil price elasticity of CPI Sri Lanka Pakistan (6) Nepal (5) Maldives (4) India Bhutan (3) Bangladesh (2) Afghanistan (1) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on World Bank, IMF and National authorities data
Developing countries are characterized by pervasive energy subsidies Source: IMF
The removal of energy subsidies would allow reducing budget deficits These deficits are the highest among all major developing regions
India moved quickly to cut subsidies and introduce excise tax on diesel and petrol (1) 15 Diesel (Rs/liter) 10 5 0-5 -10-15 Under-recoveries excise duty (unbranded) excise duty (branded) Source: India Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell
India moved quickly to cut subsidies and introduce excise tax on diesel and petrol (2) 20 Petro (Rs/liter) 15 10 5 0 Under-recovery Excise duty (ubranded) Excise duty (branded) Source: India Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell
No price reform in Bangladesh and Pakistan, but lower oil price made subsidies disappear Difference between international benchmark price and domestic price (US$/ton) Bangladesh Pakistan 600 600 500 400 400 200 300 200 100 0-100 Kerosene Gas Diesel Fuel Oil 0-200 -400-600 LPG Kerosene -200-800 -300-1000 2012 2015 2012 2015 Source: Benchmark Prices are February 2015 Singapore FOB prices plus US$2/bbl freight charge and a 15% VAT. Domestic prices refer to the latest prices published by the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation and Pakistan State Oil.
There will also be impacts on foreign trade (1) Oil price elasticity of Exports Sri Lanka Pakistan (6) Nepal (5) Maldives (4) India Bhutan (3) Bangladesh (2) Afghanistan (1) -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on World Bank, IMF and National authorities data
There will also be impacts on foreign trade (2) Oil price elasticity of Imports Sri Lanka Pakistan (6) Nepal (5) Maldives (4) India Bhutan (3) Bangladesh (2) Afghanistan (1) 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on World Bank, IMF and National authorities data
Oil price margins are volatile Source: IMF Commodity Price Outlook and Risk, March 11, 2015
exposing firms and fiscal balances to uncertainty.1.2.3.4 -.1 0 But hedging is fraught with risk as well, limiting the options to manage risk 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1 Quarter Gasoline/Crude (log) TOT (log) Source: World Bank Staff calculations
Direct welfare effects of cheaper oil will be be limited and skewed towards richer households 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Mean average spending on all fuels % 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.2 National National National Bangladesh Pakistan India 3.5 Bottom 40% Top 60% 6 Bangladesh no pass through of international prices, no direct or indirect effects expected Pakistan decline of fuel prices will have small sized effect on welfare India slight decrease of fuel prices will have small effect on welfare
Welfare also depends on remittances, which are mainly from oil exporting countries Importance of Remittances from Oil exporting Countries 40 45 50 55 60 65 2004q1 2006q3 2009q1 2011q3 2014q1 quarter Source: World Bank, IMF and National authorities data
Remittances can be expected to decline (and Pakistan is already affected) Lower Oil prices affect remittances 0-60 -40-20 20 40 2004q1 2006q3 2009q1 2011q3 2014q1 quarter Q/Q difference Remit Idx from Gulf Countries Q/Q difference crude oil prices Source: World Bank, IMF and National authorities data