P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Continues to Lead Big in Michigan (Trump 41% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 16% - Kasich 11%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- As the number of undecided voters (5%) continues to drop, Donald Trump continues to lead with the same percentage of the vote (41%) he has had for the past two weeks. However, Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (19%) almost doubled his share of the vote and Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (16%) also moved up this week while Ohio Governor John Kasich (11%) and Dr. Ben Carson (7%) stayed where they were a week ago in the latest Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Michigan Poll conducted Tuesday night before results of the Nevada Caucuses were known. The IVR (Interactive Voice Response) automated survey of 459 likely March 8, 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on February 23, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or 4.57% at the 95% level of confidence. Trump s percentage remains solid at 41%, while Rubio has moved back into second place in Michigan at 19%, still trailing by 22%. Cruz is close behind Rubio with 16% while Kasich still has not increased his share of the vote. Trump remains the real beneficiary of this three-way fight for second in Michigan. The longer the field is muddled up with three viable alternatives to Trump, the stronger Trump looks. These data are almost identical to the positions of the top three candidates two weeks ago, Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said. Most importantly, looking at the second choices of the various candidates, if everyone dropped out except Rubio and Trump, creating a two-way race, Trump would still win Michigan. The same is true if it was a two-way race between Cruz and Trump, Mitchell said. Before a more thorough breakout by demographics, there was some key information in the poll: Trump continues to be much stronger with men (47%) than women (35%), almost identical to last week.
Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Republicans Page 2 of 3 Seventy-one percent of Trump voters strongly agree that they are mad as hell and they won t take it anymore. Supporters of none of the other candidates reach more than 50% strong agreement on that statement except for Cruz supporters (51%). Clearly, the angry voters support these two candidates. Voters are solidifying behind their candidates. Trump (83%) and Cruz (73%) are also the two candidates whose supporters say they will definitely vote for them. Almost threefourths of Carson s voters (73%) and 61% of Rubio s voters are definitely voting for them. We asked voters if they would identify themselves as Evangelical Christians to see who is winning with that demographic group in Michigan. Trump (37%) leads both Cruz (22%) and Rubio (19%) with that group. We also wanted to see if the disagreement Trump had with Pope Francis would impact Trump s support with Roman Catholics and found that it clearly did not. Trump (45%) leads Rubio (23%) and Cruz (15%) with Catholics. Trump (49%) is strongest with nonchurch goers and weakest with Protestants (35% of the vote). The following data show the race between Trump, Rubio, Cruz and Kasich: By age: Trump (25%) and Cruz (25%) are tied for first with voters 18 to 39 years old, followed by Carson (22%), Rubio (14%), and Kasich (8%). Trump leads 41%-22%-12%-10% over Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich with voters 40 to 49 years old. Trump leads 38%-22%-19%-10% over Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich, with voters 50 to 59 years old. Trump leads 46%-19%-13%-11% over Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich with voters who are 60 to 69 years old. Trump leads among those 70 and older 44%-18%-15%-10% followed by Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz. By gender: Trump leads with men 47%-16%-15%-11% over Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. Trump (35%) leads Rubio (23%), Cruz (16%), and Kasich (12%) with women. By area: In Wayne County outside Detroit, Trump (48%) leads Cruz (17%), Rubio (13%), Kasich (10%), and Carson (7%). In Oakland, Trump leads 35%-27%-23%-9%-2% over Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Carson. In Macomb, Trump (50%) leads followed by Kasich (16%), with Rubio (11%) and Cruz (11%) tied for third, followed by Carson (3%). In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Trump leads 46%-20%-17%- 11% over Kasich, Rubio, and Cruz. In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Trump leads with 43%, with Kasich and Rubio tied for second with 14%, followed by Carson (11%) and Cruz (10%). In West Michigan, Trump (29%) and Rubio (29%) are tied for the lead, followed by Cruz (18%), Carson (10%), and Kasich (8%). In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Trump leads 48%-16%-13%-9% over Rubio, Cruz, and Carson.
Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Republicans Page 3 of 3 Trump continues to dominate in Michigan. The idea that a two-way race would lead to Trump losing in Michigan is wrong. Looking at second choices, even if it came down to a two-way race, Trump would still win Michigan, Mitchell concluded. Methodology: Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of likely voters in the November 2016 Michigan General Elections. Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey voters who may not have voted in primary elections before. A quadruple filter was used to determine that we were surveying only likely Republican Party Primary voters. First voters had to say they were registered voters. If they were not, the phone call ended. Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election. If they were definitely not voting the phone call ended. Then they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, definitely not voting, or if they had already voted by absentee ballot in the March 8 th Presidential Primary. If they were definitely not voting the call ended. Finally, they were informed that they could only vote in on party s primary, not in both. They were asked if they were voting in the Democratic Party Primary, the Republican Party Primary, or if they were not sure. If respondents said Democratic or not sure the call ended, so we were only polling those who said they were voting in the Republican Party Primary Election. We asked Mark Grebner of Practical Political Consulting, the top list vendor in Michigan, and the person that supplied us with our sample, to give us his estimate on voter turnout by age, gender, and race. We compared final results to determine if the data needed to be weighed to reflect the demographics of the likely voters. In this poll, results were close enough to the estimates so we did not put any weights on the data. Federal law only permits us to call land lines. Because likely Primary voters are older, almost six-in-ten (59%) are 60 or older and eight-in-ten (81%) are older than 50, there are sufficient land line voters to get an accurate sample. We do not have to make any assumptions of likely voter turnout. (In 2012, our final survey in the Michigan Republican Party Presidential Primary had Romney winning by 1.4%, he won by 3.2%. We were off by only 1.8% from the winning margin.) (The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll) -30-
Survey of the State of Michigan Likely March 2016 GOP Primary Election Voters Conducted January 25 February 4 February 15 February 23, 2016 (N=493) (N=330) (N= 394) (N=453) Hi, we re conducting a survey of Michigan voters for TV and radio stations on the Presidential Race and other issues. 1. If you are a registered voter at the household we are calling please press 1. If you re not, press 2. Yes 100% No 0 2. Thinking about the November 2016 General Election for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 99% Probably Voting 1 Not Sure Yet 0 3. Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 96% Probably Voting 2 Not Sure Yet 1 Already Voted 1 4. In a Presidential Primary you can only vote for candidates in one political party. Next month, will you be voting in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary, the Republican Party Presidential Primary, or are you not sure? Republican Primary 100% Democratic Primary 0 Not Sure 0 Before presidential and other questions, five quick questions for statistical purposes: 5. What is your age? If you are: 18-49 press 21% 50-59 press 30 60-69 press 29 70 or older press 21
6. If you are a male press 1 or a female press 2. Male 52% Female 48 7. If you are white/caucasian press 1, African-American press 2, Hispanic press 3, Asian or something else press 4. White 94% Other 6 8. If you are a: Democrat or lean Democrat press 3% Republican or lean Republican press 85 Another party press 0 Or, Independent press 11 9. What area do you live in? If you live in the: Wayne County 12% Oakland County 14 Macomb County 8 Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Thumb 12 Monroe/Washtenaw/Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan 16 West Michigan 22 Northern Michigan/U.P. 15 10. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement: I m mad as hell and I won t take it anymore! If you 1/25/16 2/4/16 2/15/16 2/23/16 Strongly agree 55% 38% 47% 50% Somewhat agree 27 19 27 34 82% 57% 74% 84% Somewhat disagree 7 7 7 11 Strongly disagree 3 6 4 6 10% 13% 11% 17% DK/Refused 8 31 16 -- 11. If the Republican Party Primary was being held today which candidate would you be voting for? I list the top six candidates in alphabetical order. If you would NOT be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, if you would be voting for Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Ted Cruz press 4, John Kasich press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, if you are not sure press 8. [Note: On 1/25 and 2/4 top six candidates in national polls chosen so Christie included and not Kasich] GOP 1/25/16 GOP 2/4/16 GOP 2/15/16 GOP 2/23/16 Bush 5% 2% 5% -- Carson 5 9 7 7% Christie 5 2 -- -- Cruz 16 16 11 16 Kasich -- -- 11 11 Rubio 12 20 10 19 Trump 48 41 41 41 Other 3 2 -- 1 Undecided 5 7 14 5
12. Are you definitely voting for your candidate, probably voting for your candidate, or could you change your mind and vote for another candidate? If you are definitely voting for your candidate press 1, probably voting press 2, or if you could change your mind press 3. GOP 2/15/16 GOP 2/23/16 Definitely 58% 69% Probably 20 16 Change Mind 22 15 13. Who is your second choice? Again, I list the six candidates in alphabetical order? If you would not be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, If you your second choice would be Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Chris Christie press 4, Ted Cruz press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, if you are not sure press 8. GOP 1/25/16 GOP 2/4/16 GOP 2/15/16 GOP 2/23/16 Bush 1% 9% 9% -- Carson 17 14 8 12% Christie 11 5 -- -- Cruz 30 23 14 16 Kasich -- -- 19 18 Rubio 13 25 17 25 Trump 11 11 10 13 Other 4 3 -- 12 Undecided 7 11 25 --
(In reading GOP cross tabs the third number down is the correct percentage of vote for each candidate. For example, looking at the far right column, Carson is getting 6.5% of the vote (we round to 7%) among Republican Party voters. He is getting 6.6% of definite voters, 0% of probably voters etc. Among all voters, 95.9% are definitely voting, 1.7% probably voting etc.) IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 Definitely Voting 3. March 8 Primary Probably Not Sure Voting Yet Already Voted AV 4. Political Primary Republican Primary Total 440 8 5 6 459 95.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 29 0 1 0 30 96.7% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 100.0% 6.6% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 6.5% Cruz 71 1 0 1 73 97.3% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 100.0% 16.1% 12.5% 0.0% 16.7% 15.9% Kasich 50 2 0 0 52 96.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 11.4% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% Rubio 82 3 0 1 86 95.3% 3.5% 0.0% 1.2% 100.0% 18.6% 37.5% 0.0% 16.7% 18.7% Trump 182 2 2 2 188 96.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 100.0% 41.4% 25.0% 40.0% 33.3% 41.0% Other 4 0 0 2 6 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 1.3% Not Sure 22 0 2 0 24 91.7% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 100.0% 5.0% 0.0% 40.0% 0.0% 5.2%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 5. Age 6. Gender 18-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 or Older Male Female Total 36 58 136 133 96 238 221 7.8% 12.6% 29.6% 29.0% 20.9% 51.9% 48.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 8 3 6 8 5 13 17 26.7% 10.0% 20.0% 26.7% 16.7% 43.3% 56.7% 22.2% 5.2% 4.4% 6.0% 5.2% 5.5% 7.7% Cruz 9 7 30 17 10 38 35 12.3% 9.6% 41.1% 23.3% 13.7% 52.1% 47.9% 25.0% 12.1% 22.1% 12.8% 10.4% 16.0% 15.8% Kasich 3 6 14 15 14 27 25 5.8% 11.5% 26.9% 28.8% 26.9% 51.9% 48.1% 8.3% 10.3% 10.3% 11.3% 14.6% 11.3% 11.3% Rubio 5 13 26 25 17 36 50 5.8% 15.1% 30.2% 29.1% 19.8% 41.9% 58.1% 13.9% 22.4% 19.1% 18.8% 17.7% 15.1% 22.6% Trump 9 24 52 61 42 111 77 4.8% 12.8% 27.7% 32.4% 22.3% 59.0% 41.0% 25.0% 41.4% 38.2% 45.9% 43.8% 46.6% 34.8% Other 1 1 1 1 2 4 2 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 33.3% 66.7% 33.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.8% 2.1% 1.7% 0.9% Not Sure 1 4 7 6 6 9 15 4.2% 16.7% 29.2% 25.0% 25.0% 37.5% 62.5% 2.8% 6.9% 5.1% 4.5% 6.3% 3.8% 6.8%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 7. Race 8. Political Party Republic- White Other Democrat or Lean Democrat an or Lean Republic... Independent Total 431 28 14 392 53 93.9% 6.1% 3.1% 85.4% 11.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 26 4 1 26 3 86.7% 13.3% 3.3% 86.7% 10.0% 6.0% 14.3% 7.1% 6.6% 5.7% Cruz 70 3 0 64 9 95.9% 4.1% 0.0% 87.7% 12.3% 16.2% 10.7% 0.0% 16.3% 17.0% Kasich 48 4 9 39 4 92.3% 7.7% 17.3% 75.0% 7.7% 11.1% 14.3% 64.3% 9.9% 7.5% Rubio 83 3 0 74 12 96.5% 3.5% 0.0% 86.0% 14.0% 19.3% 10.7% 0.0% 18.9% 22.6% Trump 175 13 4 165 19 93.1% 6.9% 2.1% 87.8% 10.1% 40.6% 46.4% 28.6% 42.1% 35.8% Other 6 0 0 4 2 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 33.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.8% Not Sure 23 1 0 20 4 95.8% 4.2% 0.0% 83.3% 16.7% 5.3% 3.6% 0.0% 5.1% 7.5%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 9. Area Wayne County Oakland County Macomb County Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing,... West Michigan Northern Michigan/ U.P. Total 69 66 38 54 73 103 56 15.0% 14.4% 8.3% 11.8% 15.9% 22.4% 12.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 5 1 1 0 8 10 5 16.7% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 26.7% 33.3% 16.7% 7.2% 1.5% 2.6% 0.0% 11.0% 9.7% 8.9% Cruz 12 18 4 6 7 19 7 16.4% 24.7% 5.5% 8.2% 9.6% 26.0% 9.6% 17.4% 27.3% 10.5% 11.1% 9.6% 18.4% 12.5% Kasich 7 6 6 11 10 8 4 13.5% 11.5% 11.5% 21.2% 19.2% 15.4% 7.7% 10.1% 9.1% 15.8% 20.4% 13.7% 7.8% 7.1% Rubio 9 15 4 9 10 30 9 10.5% 17.4% 4.7% 10.5% 11.6% 34.9% 10.5% 13.0% 22.7% 10.5% 16.7% 13.7% 29.1% 16.1% Trump 33 23 19 25 31 30 27 17.6% 12.2% 10.1% 13.3% 16.5% 16.0% 14.4% 47.8% 34.8% 50.0% 46.3% 42.5% 29.1% 48.2% Other 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 1.5% 5.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.0% 1.8% Not Sure 3 2 2 3 6 5 3 12.5% 8.3% 8.3% 12.5% 25.0% 20.8% 12.5% 4.3% 3.0% 5.3% 5.6% 8.2% 4.9% 5.4%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 10. Are You Mad Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Total 226 157 49 27 49.2% 34.2% 10.7% 5.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 14 11 2 3 46.7% 36.7% 6.7% 10.0% 6.2% 7.0% 4.1% 11.1% Cruz 37 28 6 2 50.7% 38.4% 8.2% 2.7% 16.4% 17.8% 12.2% 7.4% Kasich 9 27 9 7 17.3% 51.9% 17.3% 13.5% 4.0% 17.2% 18.4% 25.9% Rubio 19 40 20 7 22.1% 46.5% 23.3% 8.1% 8.4% 25.5% 40.8% 25.9% Trump 134 38 9 7 71.3% 20.2% 4.8% 3.7% 59.3% 24.2% 18.4% 25.9% Other 3 1 1 1 50.0% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 1.3% 0.6% 2.0% 3.7% Not Sure 10 12 2 0 41.7% 50.0% 8.3% 0.0% 4.4% 7.6% 4.1% 0.0%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 11. Religion Protestant Roman Catholic Jewish Muslim Nonchurch Goer Not Sure Total 230 150 10 3 47 19 50.1% 32.7% 2.2% 0.7% 10.2% 4.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 18 7 1 1 1 2 60.0% 23.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 6.7% 7.8% 4.7% 10.0% 33.3% 2.1% 10.5% Cruz 40 23 1 0 6 3 54.8% 31.5% 1.4% 0.0% 8.2% 4.1% 17.4% 15.3% 10.0% 0.0% 12.8% 15.8% Kasich 31 13 0 1 7 0 59.6% 25.0% 0.0% 1.9% 13.5% 0.0% 13.5% 8.7% 0.0% 33.3% 14.9% 0.0% Rubio 43 34 4 0 4 1 50.0% 39.5% 4.7% 0.0% 4.7% 1.2% 18.7% 22.7% 40.0% 0.0% 8.5% 5.3% Trump 81 67 4 1 23 12 43.1% 35.6% 2.1% 0.5% 12.2% 6.4% 35.2% 44.7% 40.0% 33.3% 48.9% 63.2% Other 4 1 0 0 1 0 66.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% Not Sure 13 5 0 0 5 1 54.2% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 4.2% 5.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 5.3%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 12. Evangelical Christians Not an Evangelical Christian You Are an Evangelical Chris... Not Sure Total 240 157 62 52.3% 34.2% 13.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 14 12 4 46.7% 40.0% 13.3% 5.8% 7.6% 6.5% Cruz 32 34 7 43.8% 46.6% 9.6% 13.3% 21.7% 11.3% Kasich 34 10 8 65.4% 19.2% 15.4% 14.2% 6.4% 12.9% Rubio 49 30 7 57.0% 34.9% 8.1% 20.4% 19.1% 11.3% Trump 98 58 32 52.1% 30.9% 17.0% 40.8% 36.9% 51.6% Other 1 4 1 16.7% 66.7% 16.7% 0.4% 2.5% 1.6% Not Sure 12 9 3 50.0% 37.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.7% 4.8%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Other Not Sure Total 30 73 52 86 188 6 24 6.5% 15.9% 11.3% 18.7% 41.0% 1.3% 5.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cruz 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Kasich 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rubio 0 0 0 86 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Trump 0 0 0 0 188 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Not Sure 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 14. Change Mind About Candidate Definitely Probably Change Mind Total 313 74 69 68.6% 16.2% 15.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson 22 3 5 73.3% 10.0% 16.7% 7.0% 4.1% 7.2% Cruz 53 14 6 72.6% 19.2% 8.2% 16.9% 18.9% 8.7% Kasich 24 15 13 46.2% 28.8% 25.0% 7.7% 20.3% 18.8% Rubio 51 18 15 60.7% 21.4% 17.9% 16.3% 24.3% 21.7% Trump 156 20 11 83.4% 10.7% 5.9% 49.8% 27.0% 15.9% Other 3 2 1 50.0% 33.3% 16.7% 1.0% 2.7% 1.4% Not Sure 4 2 18 16.7% 8.3% 75.0% 1.3% 2.7% 26.1%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 Definitely Voting 3. March 8 Primary Probably Not Sure Voting Yet Already Voted AV 4. Political Primary Republican Primary Total 440 8 5 6 459 95.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 13 0 0 0 13 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% Carson 53 1 1 2 57 93.0% 1.8% 1.8% 3.5% 100.0% 12.3% 12.5% 20.0% 33.3% 12.7% Cruz 70 1 0 0 71 98.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 16.2% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% Kasich 78 1 0 1 80 97.5% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 100.0% 18.1% 12.5% 0.0% 16.7% 17.8% Rubio 111 1 1 0 113 98.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 100.0% 25.8% 12.5% 20.0% 0.0% 25.1% Trump 56 3 0 1 60 93.3% 5.0% 0.0% 1.7% 100.0% 13.0% 37.5% 0.0% 16.7% 13.3% Other 50 1 3 2 56 89.3% 1.8% 5.4% 3.6% 100.0% 11.6% 12.5% 60.0% 33.3% 12.4%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 5. Age 6. Gender 18-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 or Older Male Female Total 36 58 136 133 96 238 221 7.8% 12.6% 29.6% 29.0% 20.9% 51.9% 48.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 2 2 3 1 5 5 8 15.4% 15.4% 23.1% 7.7% 38.5% 38.5% 61.5% 5.7% 3.4% 2.3% 0.8% 5.3% 2.1% 3.7% Carson 5 7 10 18 17 33 24 8.8% 12.3% 17.5% 31.6% 29.8% 57.9% 42.1% 14.3% 12.1% 7.6% 13.8% 17.9% 14.0% 11.2% Cruz 5 10 19 23 14 41 30 7.0% 14.1% 26.8% 32.4% 19.7% 57.7% 42.3% 14.3% 17.2% 14.4% 17.7% 14.7% 17.4% 14.0% Kasich 8 11 17 29 15 47 33 10.0% 13.8% 21.3% 36.3% 18.8% 58.8% 41.3% 22.9% 19.0% 12.9% 22.3% 15.8% 19.9% 15.4% Rubio 8 9 40 35 21 54 59 7.1% 8.0% 35.4% 31.0% 18.6% 47.8% 52.2% 22.9% 15.5% 30.3% 26.9% 22.1% 22.9% 27.6% Trump 5 11 18 13 13 34 26 8.3% 18.3% 30.0% 21.7% 21.7% 56.7% 43.3% 14.3% 19.0% 13.6% 10.0% 13.7% 14.4% 12.1% Other 2 8 25 11 10 22 34 3.6% 14.3% 44.6% 19.6% 17.9% 39.3% 60.7% 5.7% 13.8% 18.9% 8.5% 10.5% 9.3% 15.9%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 7. Race 8. Political Party Republic- White Other Democrat or Lean Democrat an or Lean Republic... Independent Total 431 28 14 392 53 93.9% 6.1% 3.1% 85.4% 11.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 11 2 1 10 2 84.6% 15.4% 7.7% 76.9% 15.4% 2.6% 7.4% 7.1% 2.6% 3.8% Carson 53 4 1 52 4 93.0% 7.0% 1.8% 91.2% 7.0% 12.5% 14.8% 7.1% 13.5% 7.7% Cruz 69 2 4 60 7 97.2% 2.8% 5.6% 84.5% 9.9% 16.3% 7.4% 28.6% 15.6% 13.5% Kasich 73 7 1 68 11 91.3% 8.8% 1.3% 85.0% 13.8% 17.3% 25.9% 7.1% 17.7% 21.2% Rubio 107 6 5 97 11 94.7% 5.3% 4.4% 85.8% 9.7% 25.3% 22.2% 35.7% 25.3% 21.2% Trump 54 6 0 51 9 90.0% 10.0% 0.0% 85.0% 15.0% 12.8% 22.2% 0.0% 13.3% 17.3% Other 56 0 2 46 8 100.0% 0.0% 3.6% 82.1% 14.3% 13.2% 0.0% 14.3% 12.0% 15.4%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 9. Area Wayne County Oakland County Macomb County Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing,... West Michigan Northern Michigan/ U.P. Total 69 66 38 54 73 103 56 15.0% 14.4% 8.3% 11.8% 15.9% 22.4% 12.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 2 0 1 3 2 3 2 15.4% 0.0% 7.7% 23.1% 15.4% 23.1% 15.4% 3.0% 0.0% 2.7% 5.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.7% Carson 6 8 3 12 8 14 6 10.5% 14.0% 5.3% 21.1% 14.0% 24.6% 10.5% 9.1% 12.3% 8.1% 22.6% 11.1% 13.6% 11.1% Cruz 12 11 6 7 8 20 7 16.9% 15.5% 8.5% 9.9% 11.3% 28.2% 9.9% 18.2% 16.9% 16.2% 13.2% 11.1% 19.4% 13.0% Kasich 10 16 5 9 12 24 4 12.5% 20.0% 6.3% 11.3% 15.0% 30.0% 5.0% 15.2% 24.6% 13.5% 17.0% 16.7% 23.3% 7.4% Rubio 24 12 10 10 21 19 17 21.2% 10.6% 8.8% 8.8% 18.6% 16.8% 15.0% 36.4% 18.5% 27.0% 18.9% 29.2% 18.4% 31.5% Trump 5 11 9 8 8 11 8 8.3% 18.3% 15.0% 13.3% 13.3% 18.3% 13.3% 7.6% 16.9% 24.3% 15.1% 11.1% 10.7% 14.8% Other 7 7 3 4 13 12 10 12.5% 12.5% 5.4% 7.1% 23.2% 21.4% 17.9% 10.6% 10.8% 8.1% 7.5% 18.1% 11.7% 18.5%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 10. Are You Mad Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Total 226 157 49 27 49.2% 34.2% 10.7% 5.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 5 5 1 2 38.5% 38.5% 7.7% 15.4% 2.3% 3.2% 2.1% 7.4% Carson 35 14 4 4 61.4% 24.6% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9% 9.0% 8.3% 14.8% Cruz 30 28 8 5 42.3% 39.4% 11.3% 7.0% 13.6% 18.1% 16.7% 18.5% Kasich 26 31 17 6 32.5% 38.8% 21.3% 7.5% 11.8% 20.0% 35.4% 22.2% Rubio 62 32 12 7 54.9% 28.3% 10.6% 6.2% 28.2% 20.6% 25.0% 25.9% Trump 30 25 3 2 50.0% 41.7% 5.0% 3.3% 13.6% 16.1% 6.3% 7.4% Other 32 20 3 1 57.1% 35.7% 5.4% 1.8% 14.5% 12.9% 6.3% 3.7%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 11. Religion Protestant Roman Catholic Jewish Muslim Nonchurch Goer Not Sure Total 230 150 10 3 47 19 50.1% 32.7% 2.2% 0.7% 10.2% 4.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 6 5 1 0 0 1 46.2% 38.5% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 2.7% 3.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% Carson 36 17 1 0 3 0 63.2% 29.8% 1.8% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 16.0% 11.6% 10.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% Cruz 27 25 6 0 9 4 38.0% 35.2% 8.5% 0.0% 12.7% 5.6% 12.0% 17.0% 60.0% 0.0% 19.6% 21.1% Kasich 34 33 1 2 8 2 42.5% 41.3% 1.3% 2.5% 10.0% 2.5% 15.1% 22.4% 10.0% 66.7% 17.4% 10.5% Rubio 61 34 1 1 12 4 54.0% 30.1% 0.9% 0.9% 10.6% 3.5% 27.1% 23.1% 10.0% 33.3% 26.1% 21.1% Trump 30 21 0 0 7 2 50.0% 35.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 3.3% 13.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 10.5% Other 31 12 0 0 7 6 55.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 10.7% 13.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 31.6%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 12. Evangelical Christians Not an Evangelical Christian You Are an Evangelical Chris... Not Sure Total 240 157 62 52.3% 34.2% 13.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 8 4 1 61.5% 30.8% 7.7% 3.4% 2.6% 1.6% Carson 28 25 4 49.1% 43.9% 7.0% 11.9% 16.2% 6.6% Cruz 41 22 8 57.7% 31.0% 11.3% 17.4% 14.3% 13.1% Kasich 46 25 9 57.5% 31.3% 11.3% 19.6% 16.2% 14.8% Rubio 63 33 17 55.8% 29.2% 15.0% 26.8% 21.4% 27.9% Trump 26 25 9 43.3% 41.7% 15.0% 11.1% 16.2% 14.8% Other 23 20 13 41.1% 35.7% 23.2% 9.8% 13.0% 21.3%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Other Not Sure Total 30 73 52 86 188 6 24 6.5% 15.9% 11.3% 18.7% 41.0% 1.3% 5.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 2 2 3 1 4 1 0 15.4% 15.4% 23.1% 7.7% 30.8% 7.7% 0.0% 6.9% 2.8% 5.8% 1.2% 2.2% 16.7% 0.0% Carson 1 12 5 9 27 1 2 1.8% 21.1% 8.8% 15.8% 47.4% 1.8% 3.5% 3.4% 16.9% 9.6% 10.7% 14.5% 16.7% 9.1% Cruz 5 1 7 25 32 1 0 7.0% 1.4% 9.9% 35.2% 45.1% 1.4% 0.0% 17.2% 1.4% 13.5% 29.8% 17.2% 16.7% 0.0% Kasich 3 3 2 31 39 1 1 3.8% 3.8% 2.5% 38.8% 48.8% 1.3% 1.3% 10.3% 4.2% 3.8% 36.9% 21.0% 16.7% 4.5% Rubio 9 31 19 1 50 0 3 8.0% 27.4% 16.8% 0.9% 44.2% 0.0% 2.7% 31.0% 43.7% 36.5% 1.2% 26.9% 0.0% 13.6% Trump 6 17 13 12 9 0 3 10.0% 28.3% 21.7% 20.0% 15.0% 0.0% 5.0% 20.7% 23.9% 25.0% 14.3% 4.8% 0.0% 13.6% Other 3 5 3 5 25 2 13 5.4% 8.9% 5.4% 8.9% 44.6% 3.6% 23.2% 10.3% 7.0% 5.8% 6.0% 13.4% 33.3% 59.1%
IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N=459 14. Change Mind About Candidate Definitely Probably Change Mind Total 313 74 69 68.6% 16.2% 15.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15. Second Choice Not Voting in GOP 9 3 1 69.2% 23.1% 7.7% 2.9% 4.1% 1.5% Carson 39 11 7 68.4% 19.3% 12.3% 12.6% 15.1% 10.4% Cruz 41 15 15 57.7% 21.1% 21.1% 13.2% 20.5% 22.4% Kasich 67 5 8 83.8% 6.3% 10.0% 21.6% 6.8% 11.9% Rubio 80 21 12 70.8% 18.6% 10.6% 25.8% 28.8% 17.9% Trump 40 10 10 66.7% 16.7% 16.7% 12.9% 13.7% 14.9% Other 34 8 14 60.7% 14.3% 25.0% 11.0% 11.0% 20.9%