Campaign 16 A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016
Agenda I. The Knowns II. The Unknowns III. The Early Appeals IV. The Hard Questions
Bring Down Title The Knowns
It s a Big Political Year 12 State Governorships 31R 18D 1I 34 United States Senators 54R 44D 2I 435 United States Representatives 247R 188D A total of 82 other state executive seats are scheduled for election in 22 states in 2016 Including 10 State Attorneys General 86 State legislative chambers State Houses of Reps 33R 16D State Senates 35R 14D 1NP Potentially hundreds of ballot measures And, of course The Presidency of the United States (and a current vacancy on the Supreme Court)
Election Day Is Tuesday, November 8th
Actually, It s NOT November 8 th Election Day is not really November 8 th It starts September 23 rd in Minnesota, And ends in December (or even January) with possible runoffs in the South... Unless the Electoral College on December 19, throws it to the House and Senate on January 3 rd.
Recent Elections Haven t Gone Well for Democrats Under President Obama, Democrats have lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, and 13 Senate seats. That s some legacy. -Rory Cooper
The Country s in a Bad Mood Updated 6/21/16
The Country s in a Bad Mood Updated 6/21/16
The Country s in a Bad Mood
The Country s in a Bad Mood 65% 60% 34% 51%
The Country s in a Bad Mood Obama Job Approval
The Country s in a Bad Mood Obama Job Approval Updated 6/21/16
The Country s in a Bad Mood Congressional Job Approval Updated 6/21/16
The Country s in a Bad Mood Congressional Job Approval Updated 6/21/16
Democratic Party Updated 6/21/16
Republican Party Updated 6/21/16
And They Don t Like The Nominees Updated 6/21/16
They ve Never Liked Trump 70 Donald Trump Historical 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fav Unfav
And They Dislike Hillary Marginally Less Updated 6/21/16
Like A Stock Trading In A Narrow Range 80 Hillary Clinton Historical 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fav Unfav
Delegates (GOP) 2,472 Delegates (1,237 Needed to Win) Candidate Delegate Count Donald Trump 1,542 Ted Cruz** 559 Marco Rubio** 165 John Kasich** 161
Delegates (Dem) Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Pledged Delegates Unpledged Delegates (Super) Total (2,382 Needed to Win) 2,219 587 2,806 1,832 48 1,880 Total 4,051 712
Money Trump has less money at this point in the election than any other recent major-party presidential candidate.
Spending But Trump won the primaries while spending only a small fraction of what the other leading candidates spent
Staff On Payroll in May
Ad Spending AD SPENDING June TV Ads Running in the Swing States are Either from Clinton or Democratic Outside Groups Ad Spending in Swing States, in Millions June 2016 Clinton and Outside Groups Backing Her Trump and Outside Groups Backing Him Sources: Mark Murray, Clinton, Democrats Dominate 2016 Battleground Airwaves, NBC News, June 19, 2016; Phillip Bump, Donald Trump s Campaign Manager is Out. Here are the Brutal Numbers That Tell Us Why, Washington Post, June 20, 2016.
Ad Spending AD SPENDING In Contrast, Both Candidates in the 2012 Presidential Election Spent Millions on Ads During June 2012 Ad Spending in Swing States, in Millions June 2012 Obama and Outside Groups Backing Him Romney and Outside Groups Backing Him Sources: Mark Murray, Clinton, Democrats Dominate 2016 Battleground Airwaves, NBC News, June 19, 2016; Phillip Bump, Donald Trump s Campaign Manager is Out. Here are the Brutal Numbers That Tell Us Why, Washington Post, June 20, 2016.
Bring Down Title The Unknowns
The Unknowns 1. Voter Turnout 2. Voter Performance 3. Down-Ballot Voting 4. Vice Presidential Choices 5. Party Unity/Effectiveness 6. Campaign Operations 7. Bernie s Brigades 8. Trump s Shelf-Life 9. Clinton Timebombs 10. Minimal Candidate Spending/Organization
Bring Down Title The Hard Questions
The Hard Questions Who wins: The White House The Senate The House The Statehouses
Trump vs. Clinton Updated 6/21/16
Trump vs. Clinton Updated 6/21/16
But It s Not a Popular Vote The Electoral College will* decide * Absent a third-party candidate
The Electoral College Decides 2012
And the Democrats Have an Advantage In six out of six elections since 1992: Democrats have won 18 states plus DC with 242 electoral votes Republicans have won 13 states with 101 electoral votes
And the Democrats Have an Advantage In six out of six elections since 1992: Democrats have won 18 states plus DC with 242 electoral votes Republicans have won 13 states with 101 electoral votes Of the other 195 votes, Democrats only need 28 for a 270 majority
Democrat Electoral Party Allegiance In six out of the last six elections, Democrats have won 18 states + DC with 242 electoral votes. Six out of six times (242 Electoral Votes) Five out of six times (15 Electoral Votes) Four out of six times (24 Electoral Votes)
GOP Electoral Party Allegiance In six out of the last six elections, Republicans have won 13 states with 101 electoral votes. Six out of six times (101 Electoral Votes) Five out of six times (57 Electoral Votes) Four out of six times (61 Electoral Votes)
2016 42 States Electoral College Locks Republican (191) Democrat (247)
8 Battleground States Republican (191) Democrat (247) Battleground (100)
2016 42 States Electoral College Locks???? Republican (191) Democrat (247)
8 Battleground States Republican (191) Democrat (247) Battleground (100)
8 Battleground States Republican (191) Democrat (247) Battleground (100)
8 Battleground States Republican (191) Democrat (247) Battleground (100)
Latest Swing State Polls Florida: Trump vs. Clinton Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac 6/21/16 Clinton 47, Trump 39 Clinton +8 Quinnipiac 6/21/16 Clinton 40, Trump 40 Even Quinnipiac 6/21/16 Clinton 42, Trump 41 Clinton +1 Approx. 1,000 Registered Voters/State - Phone
Bring Down Title U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate Open Open Open Open* Open Open* Open Republican (24) Democrat (10)
U.S. Senate Open Open Open Open* Open Open* Open? Republican (24) Democrat (10)
Cook Race Ratings, 2016 U.S. Senate Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Democrats 10 Held Seats CA (Boxer) Bennet (CO) NV (Reid) Blumenthal (CT) Schatz (HI) MD (Mikulski) Schumer (NY) Wyden (OR) Leahy (VT) Murray (WA) Republicans 24 Held Seats Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R FL (Rubio) Burr (NC) Murkowski (AK) Shelby (AL) Kirk (IL) Isakson (GA) Boozman (AR)* Johnson (WI) IN (Coats) Crapo (ID) Ayotte (NH) Blunt (MO) Moran (KS) Toomey (PA) McCain (AZ) Paul (KY) Portman (OH) Grassley (IA) LA (Vitter) Hoeven (ND) Lankford (OK) Scott (SC) Thune (SD) Lee (UT)
Cook Race Ratings, 2016 U.S. Senate Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Democrats 10 Held Seats CA (Boxer) Bennet (CO) NV (Reid) Blumenthal (CT) Schatz (HI) MD (Mikulski) Schumer (NY) Wyden (OR) Leahy (VT) Murray (WA) Republicans 24 Held Seats Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R? FL (Rubio) Burr (NC) Murkowski (AK) Shelby (AL) Kirk (IL) Isakson (GA) Boozman (AR)* Johnson (WI) IN (Coats) Crapo (ID) Ayotte (NH) Blunt (MO) Moran (KS) Toomey (PA) McCain (AZ) Paul (KY) T? Portman (OH) Grassley (IA) LA (Vitter) Hoeven (ND) Lankford (OK) Scott (SC) Thune (SD) Lee (UT)
Bring Down Title U.S. House
177 6 6 20 11 13 202 U.S. House of Representatives 218 Needed for Majority
U.S. House of Representatives 218 Needed for Majority 177 6 6 20 11 13 202
Bring Down Title Governors
2016 Governors Races Spec. Open Open TL TL TL Republican (4) Democrat (8)
Bring Down Title Ballot Issues
Ballot Issues 95 statewide ballot questions have been certified for spots on 33 statewide ballots in 2016 158 statewide ballot questions were certified for spots on 42 statewide ballots in 2014. *Low 2014 voter turnout lowered many states' signature requirements for 2016.
Campaign 16 A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016