New York Election Issues Survey: January 24, 2008 January 2008
New York Election Issues Survey: January 24, 2008 Report prepared by Susan L. Silberman, Ph.D. Data collected by Zogby International Copyright by AARP, January 2008 AARP Knowledge Management 601 E Street, NW Washington, DC 20049 Reprinting with Permission
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3.7 New York Election Issues Survey AARP commissioned this election issues survey of 705 self-identified registered voters in New York who say they are likely voters in the 2008 presidential primary. Samples were randomly drawn from a nationally listed sample. The telephone survey was conducted between January 19 and January 20, 2008 by Zogby International. The survey includes five specific election questions plus basic demographics. The margin of error for potential voters in each primary is U+U percent. Key Findings New Yorkers Are Likely to Change Their Candidate Preferences As They Learn More About the Issues. As the New York primary approaches, survey respondents are not settled in their candidate preferences. Among potential Democratic voters, over four in ten say they are at least somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election. The figure is higher among potential Republican voters, where six in ten are at least somewhat likely to change their preference. Likelihood of Changing Candidate Preference As Respondents Learn More About the Issues 100 80 60 40 20 0 39 28 18 22 Democratic Republican Somewhat Very New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 1
Financial Security Financial security is a critical voting issue. Over nine in ten potential New York primary voters from each party say that issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection will be important to their votes. This issue is very important to 60 percent of potential voters in the Democratic primary and to 64 percent of potential voters in the Republican primary. Importance of Financial Security Issues to Voting Decision 100 80 60 40 20 0 37 28 60 64 Democratic Republican Somewhat Important Very Important Who Best Addresses Financial Security When potential New York voters in the Republican primary were asked which one candidate UbestU addressed financial security issues, 50 said they did not know enough about their positions to make a judgment. Three candidates were named by five percent or more of respondents: Guiliani (9), Romney (8), and McCain (8). More than four in ten potential New York voters in the Democratic primary (42) also felt that they did not know enough to make a judgment. Those candidates named by five percent or more of respondents were Clinton (26), Obama (10), and Edwards (6). Health Care Large majorities of likely New York primary voters say that health care will be important to their 2008 voting decision. The issue is especially salient among those who may vote in the Democratic primary. Almost all Democratic respondents say health care is at least somewhat important and 26 percent rate it as very important. Potential voters in the Republican primary also say that health care will be important to their voting decisions, with four in ten (40) reporting the issue will be very important. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Importance of Health Care Issues to Voting Decision 26 70 Democratic 43 40 Republican Somewhat Important Very Important New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 2
Who Best Addresses Health Care Potential voters were asked which candidate has UbestU addressed health care. More than half of potential voters in the Republican primary (54) do not know enough about candidate positions to say who best addresses health care. Guiliani (6) and Romney (6) are the only Republican candidates named by five percent or more as best addressing health care. One quarter of potential voters in the Democratic primary (27) also do not know enough about candidate positions to name someone as best addressing the issue. Three candidates are named by five percent or more: Clinton (47), Obama (8), and Edwards (6). Conclusions New Yorkers who may vote in the state primary elections continue to follow candidate coverage closely. At least four in ten of both parties are still at least somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election. Two domestic issues financial security and health care were explored in depth. Both of these issues continue to be important to potential primary voters as they decide on their votes. Few candidates are rated as addressing the issues well by a majority of potential voters. Many potential primary voters continue to tell us that they do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care to be able to assess them or choose which candidate would best address the issues. New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 3
NEW YORK Election Issues Survey Weighted N = 705; Error = +/- 3.7 I. SCREENERS 1. Are you currently registered to vote in New York? D R 1. Yes - - 2. No (TERMINATE) - - 3. Don t Know (TERMINATE) 2. On February 5 th, New York will hold a presidential primary election so that each party can select its own candidate for President. How likely are you to vote in this primary election? D R Absolutely certain Very likely Possibly Not very likely TERMINATE Not at all likely TERMINATE Don't know TERMINATE 2a. In the presidential primary for 2008, do you plan to vote as a Democrat, or as a Republican? Dem N = 425 Rep N = 280 60 1. Democrat CODE AS DEM PRIMARY VOTER 40 2. Republican CODE AS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER 3. Don't know / no plan to vote (DO NOT READ) [TERMINATE] II. SURVEY QUESTIONS 3. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will the issue of health care be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? D R 70 40 Very important 26 43 Somewhat important 1 7 Not too important 3 8 Not at all important 0 1 Don t know/not sure [VOLUNTEERED] New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 4
4. Which candidate do you feel has UbestU addressed health care, such as the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare, or do you not know enough about their positions on health care to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES or Code Do not know enough to judge ) Republicans n = 280 6 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 2 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 3 Sen. John McCain 1 Rep. Ron Paul 6 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 1 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 14 Other 54 Don t know enough to judge 12 Don t know/not sure (VOL) Democrats n = 425 47 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 6 Former Sen. John Edwards 3 Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 8 Sen. Barack Obama 2 Other 27 Don t know enough to judge 7 Don t know/not sure (VOL) 5. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? D R 60 64 Very important 37 28 Somewhat important 1 3 Not too important 1 4 Not at all important 0 1 Don t know/not sure [VOLUNTEERED] New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 5
6. Which candidate do you feel has UbestU addressed financial security issues, such as the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes, or do you not know enough about their positions on financial security issues to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES, or Code Do not know enough to judge. Republicans n = 280 9 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 2 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 8 Sen. John McCain 1 Rep. Ron Paul 8 Former Gov. Mitt Romney 4 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 6 Other 50 Don t know enough to judge 12 Don t know/not sure (VOL) Democrats n = 425 26 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 6 Former Sen. John Edwards 1 Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 10 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Other 42 Don t know enough to judge 13 Don t know/not sure (VOL) 7. How likely are you to change your candidate preference as you learn more about the issues between now and the election? D R 18 22 Very likely 28 39 Somewhat likely 18 16 Not very likely 34 22 Not at all likely 2 2 Don t know/not sure [VOLUNTEERED] III. DEMOGRAPHICS D1. What is your age as of your last birthday? [RECORD IN YEARS] 13 18-29 37 30-49 30 50-64 16 65+ 3 Refused [DO NOT READ] New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 6
D2. Which region in New York do you live in? Are you currently living in. 31 Upstate 30 Suburbs 39 C 0 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 0 Refused [DO NOT READ] D3. Which of the following best describes your highest level of education? [READ LIST] 2 Less than high school 15 High school graduate or equivalent 23 Some college or technical training beyond high school 60 College graduate or more 0 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 0 Refused [DO NOT READ] D4. Do you work outside the home for wages? 31 Yes 21 No 0 Don t Know [DO NOT READ] 48 Refused [DO NOT READ] D5. Which of the following best represents your income last year before taxes?. Was it [READ LIST] 10 Less than $25,000 8 $25,000 but less than $35,000 15 $35,000 but less than $50,000 19 $50,000 but less than $75,000 10 $75,000 but less than $100,000 26 $100,000 or more 0 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 12 Refused [DO NOT READ] D6. Which of the following best represents your race or ethnic group? [READ LIST] 71 White, non-hispanic 15 Black or African-American 1 Asian/Pacific 9 Hispanic 3 Other 0 Don t know 1 Refused New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 7
D7. Gender Do not ask, simply record 48 Male 52 Female D8. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself to be a member Democratic, Republican, or Independent/minor party? 40 A Republican 60 A Democrat 0 An Independent (TERMINATE) 0 Other (TERMINATE) 0 Don t know (TERMINATE) 0 Refused (TERMINATE) New York Election Issues Survey, January 24, 2008 8