After Chávez: Public Opinion on Chavismo and Venezuela's Future March 15, 2013
Presenter Information Máximo Zaldívar, IFES Regional Adviser for the Americas and Chief of Party in Guatemala Maximo Zaldivar serves as Chief of Party in Guatemala. He has more than 15 years of experience in elections; political party and leadership development. Originally from El Salvador, he has led democracy and governance programs around the world, most recently in East Timor (Timor Leste). He has also served in Venezuela, Colombia and Southern Sudan, for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Office for Transition Initiatives (OTI) funded programs. In Venezuela, he worked from 2003 until 2007, interacting closely with political parties and civil society, as well as witnessing crucial electoral events in Venezuela s democratic history, like the 2004 Recall Referendum and the 2006 presidential elections.
Presenter Information Clifford Young, SVP and Managing Director, U.S. Public Sector, Ipsos Public Affairs Dr. Clifford Young is managing director of Public Sector and Polling in the United States, and also leads Ipsos global elections and political polling risk practice. His research specialties include social and public opinion trends, crisis management, political risk polling and election polling. He has worked with a wide variety of corporate, government, media and political clients. He currently oversees Ipsos U.S. presidential election polling for Thomson Reuters, and is the spokesperson for Ipsos Public Affairs in the United States.
What will be the Chávez legacy from a public opinion perspective?
Presidential Approval by Proximity to Targeted Social Programs: Venezuela (Misiones) and Bolsa Família (Brazil) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 43% 20% 55% 50% 63% 54% 79% 76% 94% 76% 73% of Venezuelans benefit or know someone who benefits from the Misiones 0% Zero 1 thru 3 4 thru 6 7 thru 9 10 or more Venezuela Brazil
To what extent do Venezuelans support State nationalism and State intervention in the economy? How has this changed over time?
Support for government intervention in the economy together with also market-friendly policies Percent Agree Opening the Venezuelan market to foreign products Government control of the Basic Basket Carrying out land reform Government control of important industries Government owning the country's natural resources Government owning the production of the country's natural resources even if this does not reduce poverty Government conrol control of the of the Basic Basic Basket Basket even even if this if this does does not not reduce reduce poverty poverty Government control of all the foreign capital invested in the country Government control of all foreign properties in the country Government control of all actions taken by foreign companies Forbidding foreigners to own land 34 58 57 57 50 49 48 44 43 72 70 August
Who is likely to win in an upcoming election? Chávez s successor or opposition? Why?
Fundamentals in Capriles favor The economy has taken a turn for the worse GDP 2012 5.2 GDP 2013 1.8 (projected) Capriles favorability scores better than those of Maduro Incumbents have a 2.6 greater likelihood of winning Maduro is not an incumbent, but a successor
Fundamentals in Capriles favor Relatively lukewarm polling numbers given that a successor is running Right Track 47% Approval Ratings 55% If modeled statistically, Maduro has about a 51% chance of winning, so the election should be a toss-up. Approval rating 55 Incumbent (Probability of Victory) 98% Successor (Probability of Victory) 51%
But could Chávez s death trigger a sympathy vote?
Yes, it probably will.
The Chávez Bump There is about an 11-point positive bump in approval ratings as a result of deaths and similar events. If modeled statistically, this increases Maduro s chances from 51% to 73%. Approval rating 55 66 Incumbent (Probability of Victory) 98% 100% Successor (Probability of Victory) 51% 73%
Appendices
Equal numbers now believe Venezuela is on the right track as those who believe it is on the wrong track Q1. In your opinion, overall, do you think Venezuela is in the right or wrong track? Right Right Direction Track 47 52 54 Wrong Track track 38 36 47 Jan-13 Don t DK/NS Know 6 10 10 Sep-12 Aug-12
Chávez still enjoys majority support Q2. Now I would like you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of Percent Approve The performance of the government 50 55 58 Jan-13 Sep-12 The job that President Hugo Chavez Chávez is doing 54 63 63 Aug-12
Capriles seen as more favorable than Maduro Hugo Chávez Henrique Capriles Nicolas Nicolás Maduro Elías Elias Jaua Diosdado Cabello Adán Adan Chávez Chavez Leopoldo Lopez López Pablo Pérez Perez Henri Falcón Falcon Very/Mainly Favorable Very/Mainly Unfavorable Unaware/ DK 75 25 62 36 57 42 54 41 46 52 41 48 39 55 34 57 32 53 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q5. Above are the names of some public figures of Venezuela. What is your opinion of them?
Candidate Matchup: Maduro versus Capriles In the event that elections are held again this year, which candidate would you vote for in the following matchup? Henrique Capriles vs Nicolás Maduro 3 3 Henrique Capriles 41 Nicolás Maduro 53 Neither DK
Crime and Violence are Main Concerns Q3a. Which issue or problem do you find the most worrying in Venezuela? Crime and violence Unemployment/Lack of jobs Healthcare Poverty and social inequality Garbage and sanitary services Food availability Corruption and financial or political Inflation *President Chávez s Chavez's health Education *Moral decline *Maintaining social programs Energy *Freedom of speech The current polarization or division Taxes 2 5 3 4 3 2 3 1 4 2 4 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 10 17 19 *Not asked in Wave 2 50 57 57 Jan-13 Sep-12
Thank you!