Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: February 19 - February 25 Sample: 891 Registered Voters in Massachusetts 400 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 292 Likely Republican Primary Voters Margin of Error: 4.1% for All Registered Voters 6.5% for Democratic Likely Voters 6.3% for Republican Likely Voters YouGov interviewed 1032 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 891 to produce the final dataset consisting of 400 Democratic likely voters, 292 Republican Likely Voters, and 199 registered voters who were not likely primary voters.the respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and party identification. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the Massachusetts Voter List with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacement. The Democratic frame included active voters registered with either the Democratic Party or Unaffiliated voters who had voted in the 2008 or 2010 Democratic Primaries. The Republican frame included active Voters registered with either the Republican Party or Unaffiliated voters who had voted in the 2012 or 2014 Republican Primaries. The matched cases and the respective frames were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, and three category education. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The final weights were raked to exit poll results on age, race, gender, and three point ideology. As a final step, all three samples were combined with a sampling frame for Registered Voters. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2010 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender,race/ethnicity, years of education, and ideology. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The full sample was then post stratified to represent the official Party Registration statistics provided by the Secretary of State, and to the joint gender and four category age distribution. UMass Poll Directors/Fellows Brian F. Schaffner, Ph.D. Director schaffne@polsci.umass.edu Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. Associate Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu Tatishe Nteta, Ph.D. Associate Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu Mia Costa Research Fellow micosta@polsci.umass.edu Kaylee Johnson Research Fellow ktjohnson@polsci.umass.edu poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 1
Likely Republican Primary Voters (N = 292) If the presidential primary election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Trump 46 47 Rubio 14 15 Cruz 14 15 Kasich 11 11 Carson 2 2 Other 6 7 Not sure 9 3 Some people have not yet decided for sure who they will vote for. Is there any chance you might vote for someone other than [CANDIDATE NAME] on election day? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question Yes 45 No 55 What other candidates are you considering voting for? Asked of those who said they were not sure who they were voting for or who said they might vote for someone else (N = 137). Rubio 25 Cruz 18 Trump 18 Kasich 13 Carson 9 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 2
Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the nomination and become the Republican Party s candidate for president? Trump 64 Rubio 10 Cruz 7 Kasich 2 Not sure 18 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Donald Trump Marco Rubio poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 3
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Ted Cruz John Kasich poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 4
Likely Democratic Primary Voters (N = 400) If the presidential primary election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Clinton 44 47 Sanders 43 44 Other 4 4 Not sure 9 5 Some people have not yet decided for sure who they will vote for. Is there any chance you might vote for someone other than [CANDIDATE NAME] on election day? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question Yes 41 No 59 Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the nomination and become the Democratic Party s candidate for president? Clinton 62 Sanders 17 Not sure 20 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 5
What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 6
All Likely Primary Voters (N = 692) In deciding who you will vote for in the upcoming presidential primary election, which of the following is MOST important to you? All Republican Democratic My candidate... LVs LVs LVs...best represents my views on the issues 42 43 41...has the right experience for the job 17 10 22...is honest and trustworthy 16 16 15...is a strong leader 13 17 10...has the best chance of winning the general election 13 15 11 In thinking about the upcoming primary election, what issue is most important to your vote? All LVs Republican LVs Democratic LVs Economy/jobs 18 20 17 Immigration 13 23 4 Homeland security/terrorism 12 23 4 Federal deficit/gov t spending 6 4 8 Gov t ethics 6 1 9 Healthcare 6 2 8 Social issues 6 2 8 Income inequality 5 <1 9 Education 1 0 2 Environment/climate change 1 0 2 Taxes 2 2 2 Guns 2 1 3 Supreme court nomination 1 1 1 Other 19 17 21 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 7
How would you rate the following candidates in terms of their honesty? Among all likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton 13 30 13 42 2 Bernie Sanders 46 31 11 8 5 Donald Trump 21 21 14 41 3 Marco Rubio 9 26 32 21 11 Ted Cruz 8 21 22 39 9 John Kasich 23 37 15 5 20 Among Republican likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton 1 9 6 83 1 Bernie Sanders 21 37 17 16 9 Donald Trump 35 36 13 15 2 Marco Rubio 17 40 27 9 6 Ted Cruz 16 35 25 18 5 John Kasich 35 37 12 2 14 Among Democratic likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton 21 46 17 13 3 Bernie Sanders 63 26 6 2 3 Donald Trump 10 11 15 59 5 Marco Rubio 3 16 37 31 14 Ted Cruz 3 11 20 54 13 John Kasich 14 37 17 7 25 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 8
How would you rate the following candidates in terms of how qualified they are to be president? Among all likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton 45 19 7 29 1 Bernie Sanders 21 36 16 23 4 Donald Trump 18 17 12 51 2 Marco Rubio 8 28 24 34 6 Ted Cruz 11 26 20 37 7 John Kasich 17 41 19 10 12 Among Republican likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton 8 16 12 63 2 Bernie Sanders 6 22 21 46 4 Donald Trump 33 30 14 21 2 Marco Rubio 17 40 22 18 2 Ted Cruz 22 39 21 16 3 John Kasich 25 42 18 7 9 Among Democratic likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton 72 21 3 4 0 Bernie Sanders 32 47 11 5 4 Donald Trump 6 8 11 73 2 Marco Rubio 2 19 26 45 8 Ted Cruz 2 17 19 52 10 John Kasich 12 40 21 12 15 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 9
Registered Voters (N = 891) Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction 48 Wrong track 34 Not sure 18 Thinking about the quality of life in your local community, what concerns you most? Cost of living 38 Taxes 18 Drug abuse 16 Schools 9 Crime 7 Public transportation 6 Traffic 2 Other 5 How confident are you in the ability of the Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority (MBTA) to provide reliable service to commuters? Very confident 8 Somewhat confident 36 Not at all confident 48 Not sure 8 How worried are you about a major terrorist attack in the U.S.? Very worried 29 Somewhat worried 43 Not too worried 26 Not at all worried 3 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 10
Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve approve disapprove disapprove Not sure President Barack Obama 23 25 14 37 1 Governor Charlie Baker 27 46 12 3 11 Senator Elizabeth Warren 29 22 10 28 11 Senator Edward Markey 13 28 11 23 25 Atty. General Maura Healey 14 30 14 9 33 Pope Francis 34 28 11 10 16 There will likely be several questions on the ballot in Massachusetts this November. If the election were held today, how would you vote on each of the following? To legalize the recreational marijuana for individuals who are at least 21 years old Would vote Yes 53 Would vote No 40 Not sure 7 To create a 4% tax increase on incomes that exceed $1 million to fund educational programs and transportation improvements Would vote Yes 62 Would vote No 30 Not sure 9 To authorize the approval of up to 12 new charter schools or enrollment expansions in existing charter schools by the state Board of Elementary and Secondary Education per year Would vote Yes 51 Would vote No 23 Not sure 26 To remove Common Core State Standards for Mathematics and English Language Arts Would vote Yes 53 Would vote No 22 Not sure 25 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 11
This fall, voters will elect a new president. If the candidates listed below were running, who would you be most likely to vote for? Candidate pairings were randomly assigned to respondents and Bloomberg was only an option in half of all pairings. Each respondent saw 6 pairings. Sample size for each pairing is approximately 300. Hillary Clinton vs. Republican Field Asked w/o Asked w/ Asked w/o Asked w/ Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Hillary Clinton 54 50 Hillary Clinton 56 46 Donald Trump 40 36 Ted Cruz 33 28 Michael Bloomberg 6 Michael Bloomberg 9 Not sure 6 8 Not sure 10 17 Asked w/o Asked w/ Asked w/o Asked w/ Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Hillary Clinton 55 44 Hillary Clinton 50 41 Marco Rubio 36 34 John Kasich 43 39 Michael Bloomberg 7 Michael Bloomberg 6 Not sure 9 15 Not sure 7 15 Bernie Sanders vs. Republican Field Asked w/o Asked w/ Asked w/o Asked w/ Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bernie Sanders 52 43 Bernie Sanders 59 51 Donald Trump 42 38 Ted Cruz 32 22 Michael Bloomberg 11 Michael Bloomberg 14 Not sure 6 9 Not sure 9 14 Asked w/o Asked w/ Asked w/o Asked w/ Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bernie Sanders 56 46 Bernie Sanders 55 42 Marco Rubio 34 30 John Kasich 39 34 Michael Bloomberg 9 Michael Bloomberg 7 Not sure 10 15 Not sure 6 17 poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 12
Sample Demographics Category All LVs Dem LVs Rep LVs Gender Male 48% 43% 51% Female 52% 57% 49% Age 18-29 13% 11% 3% 30-44 25% 24% 8% 45-64 40% 32% 45% 65+ 22% 32% 44% Education HS or less 31% 31% 29% Some college 19% 12% 21% College degree 31% 32% 28% Postgraduate 19% 25% 21% Party ID Democrat 31% 78% < 1% Republican 13% 1% 47% Independent 56% 21% 52% Ideology Very Liberal 7% 31% 1% Liberal 16% 30% 2% Moderate 44% 31% 31% Conservative 28% 6% 45% Very Conservative 5% 2% 20% Income < $40k 30% 35% 22% $40 - $100k 44% 43% 50% > $100k 25% 23% 28% poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll 13