Emerging Market Consumers: A comparative study of Latin America and Asia-Pacific Euromonitor International ESOMAR Latin America 2010
Table of Contents Emerging markets and the global recession Demographic dynamics Income inequality and the rise of the middle class Spending priorities Consumers in 2010 and beyond
Emerging markets and the global recession Image for 2010
% real GDP growth over previous quarter, annualized 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2010: Recovery is driven by emerging markets 11 Real GDP growth: % growth over previous period, annualised Emerging economies 6 1 World Advanced economies 2009: 89 2010: 17 Number of countries expected to see negative real GDP growth -4-9 Source: IMF
Winners and losers Annual % real GDP growth in G20: 2009-2010 China India Indonesia Brazil Saudi Arabia Mexico Turkey Russia South Korea USA Canada Australia South Africa Japan Argentina Germany France United Kingdom EU-27 Italy -10.0-5.0-5.0 10.0 15.0 2009 2010 Source: IMF 5
Latin America Recovery in Latin America is not homogenous across countries. Commodity-exporting countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru) are expected to perform better in the region, while commodity importers face a slower recovery. Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous period Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Argentina 1.2 1.8 1.3-0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 na Brazil 1.8 1.2 1.4-3.4-1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 Chile 1.8 1.9-1.3-2 -0.7-0.3 1.1 na Colombia -0.4 0.6 0.2-1.3 0.1 0.8 0.2 na Mexico 1.2-0.4-0.1-1.9-6.9 0.3 2.5 2.0 Source: National statistics Note: Data are seasonally adjusted
Brazil Brazil s economy suffered a contraction in 2009, largely as a result of slowing global demand for Brazilian exports, particularly of raw commodities. Nonetheless, the economy has rebounded owing to the strong capital inflows and good policy management by the government. 12 10 Selected macro-economic indicators: 2010-2011 8 2010 2011 9.9 8.6 The unemployment rate in Brazil dropped to 6.8% in December 2009 returning to the same level recorded in December 2008. 6 4 2 4.7 3.7 4.5 4.1 Growth of private consumption fell during 2009, but is supported by low borrowing costs, tax cuts and aggressive government spending. 0 Real GDP Growth Inflation Unemployment Rate Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
Mexico The recession in Mexico ended in Q3 2009. This was a reflection of the improvement in industry and services caused by the revival of external and domestic demand. 7 6 Selected macro-economic indicators: 2010-2011 2010 2011 6.3 5.7 Swine flu alone cost the country more than US$2 billion. The recession in the USA led to a sharp drop in exports and remittances and the recovery is dependent on the strength of the US manufacturing sector. 5 4 3 2 4.0 4.7 3.5 3.0 Consumer spending fell by 8.0% in 2009 owing to tighter credit, a drop in wages and remittances. Spending should begin to rise again in 2010, increasing by 1.8%. 1 0 Real GDP Growth Inflation Unemployment Rate Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
Asia Pacific Asia recovered from the downturn faster than other regions owing to the highly effective policy responses taken by governments. While deflationary pressures and a strong yen could stifle Japan's recovery, China continues to display a strong recovery backed by robust growth in private demand. Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous period Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 China India 10.6 10.1 9.0 6.8 6.1 7.9 9.1 10.7 2.0 0.8 2.2-0.3 1.4 2.5 3.0 na Indonesia 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 South Korea 1.1 0.4 0.2-5.1 0.1 2.6 3.2 0.2 Vietnam 7.5 5.7 5.9 5.7 3.1 4.5 5.8 7.4 Source: National statistics Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Data for China and Vietnam are year-on-year and are not seasonally adjusted
China China s growth continues to remain buoyant aided by a strong rebound of exports, robust growth in private demand and continued increases in foreign investments. 12 10 Selected macro-economic indicators: 2010-2011 10.0 9.7 2010 2011 Domestic spending is driven by the stimulus package and the relaxation of restrictions on bank lending. Concerns about asset price bubbles still persist. Timely monetary tightening will not only help sustain growth but also avoid overheating. 8 6 4 2 3.0 3.5 4.5 4.5 0 Real GDP Growth Inflation Unemployment Rate Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
Indonesia Indonesia's economy performed better than that of many other large Asian countries in 2009 thanks to its large domestic market and relatively modest dependence on exports. The government has been introducing a range of more liberal policies to boost economic activity, investment and employment. Unemployment fell to 7.9% at the end of 2009 the lowest rate in nine years. Good harvests have boosted farm incomes and commodity exporters are benefiting from the surge in China's infrastructure investment. Selected macro-economic indicators: 2010-2011 2010 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4.8 5.0 Real GDP Growth 6.2 5.4 Inflation 9.4 9.1 Unemployment Rate Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
Demographic dynamics Demographic dynamics
A tale of two regions Latin America Asia- Pacific
Stark differences in major markets China 2010 Brazil 1.3 billion Total population 195 million 38.8 years Median age 28.8 years 16.4% % aged 0-14 25.6% 9.7% % aged 65+ 6.8% 1.8 Fertility rate 1.8 Shanghai - 12.0 million Largest city Source: UN/National statistics Sao Paulo 11.4 million
Income inequality and the rise of the middle class
Fundamental differences in income distribution between the two regions Gini Index Asia Pacific: 0.413 Latin America: 0.500 Average household income: Asia Pacific: US$11,159 Latin America: US$16,254 Households with an annual income over US$15,000: Asia-Pacific: 7.3% Latin America: 33.2% Source: National statistics
% of households with an income between 75% and 125% of the median income Income inequality in Latin America impacts on the size of the middle class 40% 35% 30% 34% Middle class households: 2009 31% 29% 28% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 27% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% Source: National statistics
It also means the Latin American rich are richer than the Asia-Pacific rich Venezuela Brazil Taiwan South Korea Mexico Malaysia Chile Peru Colombia Argentina Ecuador Azerbaijan Kazakhstan China Thailand Turkmenistan Philippines Bolivia Pakistan Indonesia India Vietnam Average disposable income of decile 10 households: 2009-25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 US$ per household Source: National statistics
With some startling extremes Brazil Colombia Peru Ecuador China Malaysia Philippines Bolivia Thailand Argentina Turkmenistan Mexico Venezuela Vietnam India South Korea Indonesia Chile Taiwan Azerbaijan Pakistan Kazakhstan The ratio of a decile 10 income to a decile 1 income: 2009-5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Source: National statistics
Spending priorities
US$ per household Income inequality has a huge impact on spending patterns Average spending of a decile 5 household: 2009 Necessities 12,000 10,000 8,000 Discretionary spending A middle income household in Latin America spends 44% more than the equivalent household in Emerging Asia 6,000 4,000 49% Despite this, the proportion of budget devoted to necessities is 2,000 52% similar: 49% in Latin America - Latin America Emerging Asia and 52% in Emerging Asia Source: National statistics
% of total household expenditure How does the spending of the rich compare? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Average expenditure of a decile 10 household: 2009 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Miscellaneous Goods & Services Hotels & Catering Education Leisure & Recreation Communications Transport Health Goods & Medical Services Household Goods & Services 0% China Brazil Housing Clothing & Footwear Source: National statistics
% of total household expenditure And the poor? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Average expenditure of a decile 1 household: 2009 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Miscellaneous Goods & Services Hotels & Catering Education Leisure & Recreation Communications Transport Health Goods & Medical Services Household Goods & Services Housing Clothing & Footwear 0% China Brazil Source: National statistics
Consumers in 2010 and beyond
Technology & Communications
Emerging markets increasingly plugged in Internet Users 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 Asia Pacific Latin America 400000 200000 0 2010 2015 2020
Staying connected on the go Mobile Phone Subscriptions 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 Asia Pacific Latin America 1000000 500000 0 2010 2015 2020
Health & Wellness
Better living through nutrition 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Health & Wellness China - RMB mn 2009 2014
Better living through nutrition 75000 Health & Wellness Brazil - R$ mn 50000 25000 0 2009 2014
Focus on prevention and dietary gaps Vitamins and Dietary Supplements RMB mn 80000 70000 60000 50000 Vitamins and Dietary Supplements Rs mn 40000 35000 30000 25000 40000 2009 20000 2009 30000 2014 15000 2014 20000 10000 10000 5000 0 0 China India
Focus on prevention and dietary gaps Vitamins and Dietary Supplements R$ mn 3000 2500 2000 Vitamins and Dietary Supplements Mx$ mn 9800 9600 9400 9200 1500 2009 9000 2009 1000 500 2014 8800 8600 8400 2014 0 8200 Brazil Mexico
Eco-Awareness
Translating awareness into sales Competitive pricing Packaging redesign Concentrated products Communicating benefits
Retail evolution
Expansion of chained retailing Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Outlets 2009 Outlets 2014 Hypermarkets 4048 6786 Supermarkets 124477 154445 Discounters 1043 1545 Small Grocery Retailers 11349185 11608480 Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists 3747283 3803238
Expansion of chained retailing Latin America Latin America Outlets 2009 Outlets 2014 Hypermarkets 1770 2129 Supermarkets 9940 11111 Discounters 21636 22554 Small Grocery Retailers 1592974 1658011 Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists 395421 412058
04-09 Percentage Value Growth Internet retailing: a new frontier for shoppers 1200 1000 Argentina 800 India 600 Brazil 400 Mexico 200 China 0-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 09-14 Percentage Value Growth
Q&A Mary.Tabion@Euromonitorintl.com E U R O M O N I T O R I N T E R N A T I O N A L