Globalization and Selectivity of the Best and the Brightest Immigrants May 2009 B. Lindsay Lowell, PhD Director of Policy Studies Institute for the Study of International Migration (ISIM) Georgetown University Washington, DC USA Email: lowellbl@georgetown Web: ISIM@georgetown.edu.edu Presentation to "Immigration and American Competitiveness," part of the roundtable series on "Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy, Council on Foreign Relations, New York City.
Synopsis The evidence is that past skilled migration numbers have been generous, and the likely future is that the absolute and relative number of skilled immigrants will be great. Immigrants make solid contributions, but are not uniquely more productive than natives and globalization and simply admitting more leavens the skill distribution. In terms of numbers & regulations, policy should be neither fewer & harder or more & easier, but rather generous & targeted. The challenge is to recreate entire systems and to creatively design competitive, targeted policies that select the truly best and brightest.
Long run immigration & globalization Since 1990s boom in skilled immigration, USA dominates globally and, despite competition, that s likely to continue. Even given current policies, future skilled migration will remain numerically generous both absolutely and relatively. population growth in source countries and increasing college enrolments broadens (not lessens) the pool of skilled international migrants. slowing growth of US domestic population
Immigration in the short run Short run swings are predominantly driven by the US & global economy there has been no widespread increase of restrictive policies affecting skilled workers. For example, and despite popular misperceptions, the foreign student downturn was primarily about the economy, not policy. Restrictive policy should have hit risky physicists, but it was the economy that hit students planning to follow the H-1B visa into IT employment.
Nobel Prize Winners Recent research by Hunter et al. 2009 Nobel laureates are the cream of the crop. However, decline in immigrant share of Nobel prizes over time (globalization); and immigrants are less likely to be Nobel winners than natives.
Hunter et. al s findings Globalization reduces incentives for the best to migrate: If mobility is extremely costly, only absolutely outstanding scientists move If mobility costs less, less productive scientists are more likely to move Globalization makes cross-country productivity distributions more similar Today s immigrants not more productive than natives: Over time, decline in foreign-born share of US Nobel Laureates Over time, decline in foreign-born with US-PhDs who win Laureates Elite movers are not more productive than elite stayers Migrant physicists are not more productive than US physicists Source: Hunter et al., 2009
Patent applications over time Most individuals file only 1-2 patents. Individuals with many patents tend to be more productive, gain approvals and move to applications. Secular decline in number of US patents. Like Nobel prizes, some recent decline among immigrants who make multiple patent applications.
ICT Industries & Silicon Valley The Information, Communications and Technology (ICT) Industry is a leading edge of innovation and productivity growth. Immigrants play a large role in clusters, particularly Silicon Valley, however, the national role is not pronounced; and immigrants are less likely to be ICT entrepreneurs or managers than natives.
Foreign-born share of owners and top management in ICT industries, Nationally USA 2005-2007 Foreign-born percent of each 15 10 5 0 Source: ACS microdata. Self-employed, CEO or Business Manager