Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center Washington, DC Immigration Reform: Implications for Farmers, Farm Workers, and Communities University of California, DC Washington, DC 12-13 May 2011 New Patterns in US Immigration, 2011: Uncertainty for Reform
Immigration Today Growth of Immigrant Population -- Overall Growth Stopped 07 to mid- 10 -- No Unauthorized Growth since 06 -- Mexican Increase Stopped (maybe?) Unauthorized Pop Down Slightly -- HUGE Drop in New Unauthorized -- Legal Immigration Levels Still High -- No Evidence of Increased Out-Flows Key Characteristics of Unauthorized -- Families with Children -- Geographic Dispersal
Foreign-Born Grew Steadily thru Apr. 07 Plateau thru Apr. 10, but New Growth Foreign-Born Population from Monthly CPS (in millions) 3 mo Moving Average 38 Dec. 10 38.6 Million 34 April 2007 & April 2010 37.1 Million 30 '90-based '00-based 29.4 26 22 01-96 01-97 01-98 01-99 01-00 01-01 01-02 01-03 01-04 01-05 01-06 01-07 01-08 01-09 01-10 01-11 Source: Tabulations of monthly Current Population Surveys; 2000-2008 surveys use consistent, alternative weights developed by the Pew Hispanic Center (Passel and Cohn, 2010).
Legal Status of Immigrants Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) Aliens 12.4 million 31% 28% Unauthorized Immigrants 11.2 million Naturalized Citizens (former LPRs) 14.9 million 37% 4% Temporary Legal Residents ~1.5 million 40.2 Million Foreign-Born in 2010 Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized Grew Rapidly Thru 2007 Declines Since Millions of Unauthorized Immigrants Living in the U.S. 12.0 (2007) 8.4 11.1 (2005) 3 3.3 4 2.5 3.9 5 4-80 1-82 6-86 6-89 10-92 10-96 4-00 3-05 3-10 Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011). and compilations of earlier estimates from multiple sources, many by Passel and colleagues.
Peak in 07 but No Change 09 to 10 Unauthorized population (millions) 13 12.0* 11.1* 11.3 11.6 11.1 11.2 10.4* 10 8.4 9.3* 9.4 9.7 * Change from previous year significant at 90% Underlined figures show no significant change. 7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in 07 Unauthorized population (millions) 6 6.0* 6.3 6.5 7.0* 6.8 6.7 6.5 5.5 4.6 4.8 5.2* * Change from previous year significant at 90% Underlined figures show no significant change. 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Mexico is Largest Source of Unauthorized, by Far Other Latin America -- 24% 2.6 million Mexico -- 58% 6.5 million Asia & Mid-East -- 11% 1.3 million Europe & Canada -- 4% 0.5 million Africa & Other -- 3% 0.3 million 11.2 Million in March 2010 Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Mexico is Largest Country for Legal Immigrants, Too Mexico -- 20% 5.8 million Europe & Canada -- 18% 5.2 million Africa & Other -- 5% 1.4 million Other Latin America 23% 6.7 million Asia & Mid-East -- 34% 9.8 million 28.9 Million in March 2010 Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Focus on Mexico
Key Features of Migration Mexican Population in U.S. -- Rapid Build-Up begins in 1970s through 2007 -- Growth Stops after 2007 (10% in US) -- Possible Increase in Late 2010 -- Unauthorized Numbers Peak in 2007 Flows into U.S. -- Upward Trend in Late 90s; Peak ca. 99-01 -- Drop and Increase Tied to Employment -- Flows Plummet After 07 -- Slight Rebound in 2010 (?) Other Features -- Role of Enforcement Uncertain -- Return Flows Have NOT Increased -- Family & Geographic Options Keep Folks in US
Mexicans in US Plateau (Sep 07-May 10) New Growth Surge in Late 2010 8,000 Mexican-Born Population Entering 90 or later (in 000s) 3 mo Moving Average 8,014 7,000 6,000 5,000 '90-based '00-based Sep 2007 & May 2010 7.5 Million 4,000 3,787 3,000 2,000 1,000 01-96 01-97 01-98 01-99 01-00 01-01 01-02 01-03 01-04 01-05 01-06 01-07 01-08 01-09 01-10 01-11 Source: Tabulations of monthly Current Population Surveys; 2000-2008 surveys use consistent, alternative weights developed by the Pew Hispanic Center (Passel and Cohn, 2010).
Annual Flows, the Economy & Enforcement
Surprise Gains in Employment by Mexican Immigrants Since March 2010 Percent Unemployed 3 mo. Moving Average 14% 13.6% 14.3% 12% 10% 10.3% Mexican-Born Entered US 90 or Later 9.3% 10.3% 9.4% 8% 6% 6.7% 6.3% 5.1% 7.4% 8.9% 4% 4.4% U.S. Natives 4.0% 4.6% 2% 0% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Source: Tabulations from Current Population Surveys, January 2000 to October 2010.
Mexican In-Flows Follow US Employment; Flows Up in 10(?) with Some Improvements Annual Immigration (in 000s) Start Peak 608 % Employed of LF 600 Mexico-U.S. Migration 96% 400 94% U.S Employment Rate 200 241 177 92% 100 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 90% Source: Estimates from March CPS, American Community Surveys, and Census 2000 developed by author. See Passel and Cohn 2009,, Passel and Suro 2005.
Inflow of Unauthorized Mexicans Drops Dramatically After 05 Average Annual Inflow of Unauthorized Mexicans (000s) 500 410 220 220 90 March '00- March '05 March '05- March '06 March '06- March '07 March '07- March '08 March '08- March '09 Source: March 2009 CPS, augmented by Pew Hispanic Center
Border Apprehensions of Mexicans Track Flows, but at Higher Levels Annual Mexican Immigration, from ACS Year of Arrivals (in thousands) 1,523 1,637 Apprehensions of Mexicans at the Southern Border (in thousands) 1,169 1,085 1,000 608 882 981-23% 662 300 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: Immigration from previous chart; apprehensions from Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2009 (DHS 2010).
Apprehension Rate is Up, BUT Virtually Everyone Gets In 98% 95% 100% 97% Eventually Succeeded 28% Apprehended at Least Once 27% 31% 41% Pre-1986 1986-1993 1994-2001 2002-2009 Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.
Are MORE Mexicans Going Home? Why? Or Why Not?
ENOE Shows Dropping Flows Out of Mexico BUT Return Flows are Down, Too Annual Migration Rate (per 1,000) Out of and Into Mexico 16 14 12 10 Annual Out Migration Quarterly In-migration Quarterly Out-Migration Annual In-Migration 8 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Encuesta Nacional del Ocupacion y Empleo from INEGI (www.inegi.gob.mx).
Why Aren t More Leaving the US? Fear of Losing U.S. Job Situation in Mexico is No Better Border Enforcement -- Costly & Risky to Re-enter U.S. Integration into U.S. Society -- Families Increasingly Rooted in US -- U.S.-Born Children in School -- Social Networks in the U.S. -- Geographic Diversity gives Options
Unauthorized Mexican Men Work More; Women Work Much Less Than Others 93% 84% 81% Unauthorized Mexicans Legal Mexican-Born All Natives Percent in Labor Force, 2010 72% 54% 56% Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64) Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized Immigrants More Likely To Be Couples with Children U.S. Native Households 21% Percent of Group s Households that are Couples with Children, 2010 Legal Immigrant Households 34% Unauthorized Immigrant Households 46% Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Most Unauthorized Mexicans Are Married or Have Children Persons in Unauthorized Mexican Families, 2010 (millions) 0.4 Without Children With Children 0.3 1.7 1.5 1.7 0.3 Men without Partners or Children Men with Partners or Children Women without Partners or Children Women with Partners or Children Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized Families Have Mixed Composition Unauthorized Children 1.0 million 9% of all unauthorized Adult Men 5.9 million 58% of Adults U.S. Citizen Children 4.5 million 81% of kids Adult Women Other Adults 875,000 4.3 million 42% of Adults 16.6 million in Unauthorized Families Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized Mexican Families Have Very Mixed Composition Unauthorized Children 0.6 million 9% of all unauthorized Adult Men 3.6 million 60% of Adults U.S. Citizen Children 3.3 million 84% of kids Adult Women 2.4 million 40% of Adults Other Adults 525,000 10.4 million in Unauthorized Mexican Families Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
US-Born Children of Unauthorized Up but Unauthorized Decrease Children with at Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent, by Status, 2000-2010 (in millions) 4.5 2.1 U.S-Born Children of Unauthorized Parent(s) 1.5 Unauthorized Immigrant Children 1.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Most Children of Unauthorized Have Mexican Parent(s) Children with at Least One Unauthorized Mexican Immigrant Parent, by Status, 2000-2010 (in millions) 3.3 1.4 U.S-Born Children of Unauthorized Mexican Parent(s) 0.9 Unauthorized Mexican Immigrant Children 0.6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized Spreading Away From Big 6 States 42% Percent of Total Unauthorized Migrant Population 4.5 Million 40% 1990 (3.5 million) 2010 (11.2 million) 23% 20% -- 700,000 15% 13% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 3% CA TX NY FL IL NJ All Other Source: Estimates for 2010 based on March 2010 Current Population Survey (Passel and Cohn, 2011); for 1990 from Warren, 2001 based on various sources.
Dispersal of Undocumented Population Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS (Passel and Cohn, 2011); Unauthorized Immigrants 2010 (11.2 million) 1,650,000 2,550,000 (2) 400,000 825,000 (6) 140,000 325,000 (11) 55,000 120,000 (16) Less than 45,000 (16)
New Growth --> High % Undocumented Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS (Passel and Cohn, 2011); 2010 Composition Categories (US=28%) Highest % Undocumented (40-56% of foreign-born) (19) High % Undocumented (30-38%) (9) Lower % Undocumented (21-28%) (11) Lowest % Undocumented (<20%) (12)
Mexicans Lead Diversification 58% -- 2.5 million Percent of U.S. Mexicans 40% -- 4.9 million 1990 (4.5 Million) 1996 (6.7 Million) 2010 (12.4 Million) 3.8 Million 31% 21 20 3 6 5 5 12% -- 0.5 million California Texas Arizona Illinois All Others Source: Estimates for 1990 based on 1990 Census; for 1996, from March CPS; for 2010, from augmented March CPS (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Some Impacts on States
Unauthorized Workers Numbers and Shares Increased through 2007 Millions of unauthorized immigrant workers 5.5 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.8 3.8% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 7.4 7.8 8.4 8.2 7.8 8.0 5.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.2% Unauthorized immigrant workers as share of labor force 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
% Unauthorized of Labor Force, 2010 Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS (Passel and Cohn, 2011); % Unauthorized of LF (US=5.2%) Very Highest (8.6%-10%) (4) Above Average (6.1%-7.4%) (5) Average (4.2%-5.6%) (12) Below Average (2.0-3.9% (18) Very Lowest (<1.7%) (12)
1-in-15 of K-12 Students is the Child of an Unauthorized Immigrants 77.0% All children US-born child Immigrant child Percent of K-12 School Enrollment, 2010 16.1% 13.3% 2.8% 6.9% 5.0% 1.8% U.S.-born parent Legal immigrant parent Unauthorized immigrant parent Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with data on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
% of K-12 Students w/ Unauth. Parents 10% 17% 15% 18% 13% Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS (Passel and Cohn, 2011); % of K-12 Students with Unauthorized Parent(s) (US=6.9% in 2010) Very Highest (10%-18%) (5) Average (6.7-7.6%) (7) Below Average (3.8-6.4%) (15) Well Below Average (2.0-3.5%) (11) Very Lowest (<1.9%) (13)
What About the Future? Flows Down Respond to Economy Enforcement May be Working -- Border Effectiveness Uncertain for Now -- Interior Laws Make Life Risky/Unpleasant Changing Age Structure in Mexico -- Smaller Birth Cohorts of 90s -- Fewer Labor Force Entrants Begin Now -- Lessening Pressure to Migrate Scale is Large (11 mil.) & Dispersed Networks & Culture Facilitate Flow Families, Not Just Individuals
Thank You
Please E-mail or Call Me at: jpassel@pewhispanic.org (202) 419-3625 www.pewhispanic.org Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D. Pew Hispanic Center Pew Research Center 1615 L St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036