HIGH SKILLED IMMIGRANT RECRUITMENT AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: THE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION POLICIES Natasha T. Duncan & Brigitte S. Waldorf Purdue University
Introduction Demand for global labor talent Policy responses
Research Questions Questions Is the current economic recession linked to tighter immigration restrictions? Why governments might continue to take in high skilled Why governments might continue to take in high skilled migrants even during economic downturns?
Background Attitudes toward Immigration The politics of immigration is not static: Public debate shaped by economic climate (e.g. Freeman 1995; Hollifield 1992). Economic Crises and Migration in Historical Perspective Three global economic crises: The Great Depression The 1973 oil crisis Current global recession
Current Global Recession Governments policy responses have a skills bias. Immigration policies: low-skilled immigrants Restrictions on new labor migrants Expulsion of existing workers, e.g. East, Southeast, Central Asian economies. Financial incentives to encourage the return of immigrants, e.g. Spain, Czech Republic, and Japan.
Current Global Recession (cont d) Immigration policies: high-skilled immigrants Active recruitment of high skilled migrants. Adjustments during crisis Numerical limits have decreased and bars have been raised, e.g. Australia and Britain. Stricter labor market tests, e.g. Indonesia, United States. Admission channels remain generally open to this pool of migrants and some governments are taking pro-active steps to stay ahead, e.g. Canada and Japan.
Conceptual Model: Circulation of Global Talent Place of Work: H A H A H A Event: g e r e r e time H = home A = abroad g = graduation e = emigration r = return Circulation of a highly-skilled individual
High-skilled labor in domestic labor market V(t) + R(t) High-skilled labor working abroad X(t) µ rate of emigration from domestic labor market ρ rate of return home Flows between the domestic labor market and labor working abroad
The Model Categorization of highly-educated people: V = have never left the country X = emigrated and work abroad R = returned after terminating their stay abroad Changes in the three subpopulations over time: dv (t) t = µ V ( t) X ( t) dt dr( t) = ρx ( t) dt dx ( t) = µ V ( t) X ( t) ρx ( t) dt
Simulations Baseline Scenario 1000000 Size of Subp populations 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 V X R Baseline scenario: time t=0 V(0) = 1,000,000 X(0) = 5,000. R(0) = 0. µ=.15 per 1,000,000 V-X encounters per year ρ= 0.1 per year 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years V = workers who never emigrated; X = expatriates; R = returnees
Simulations Baseline Scenario 500 450 400 350 (V+R +R)/X 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years Ratio of knowledge workers in the domestic labor market (V+R) and those abroad (X)
Simulations Policy Scenarios: an increase in the rate at which expatriates return home, ρ Number of knowledge e workers abroad (X) 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 scenario 1 baseline Assuming an 20% increase: ρincreases from ρ=0.1 to ρ= 0.12 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years Size of the pool of expatriates over time, baseline and scenario 1
Simulations Policy Scenarios: an increase in the rate at which expatriates return home, ρ (V V+R)/X 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Baseline In order to stop the brain drain immediately, the return rate needs to be increased to ρ= 0.15. 150 100 Scenario 1 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years Comparison of (V+R)/X for baseline and scenario 1.
Simulations Policy Scenarios: changes due to a reduction of emigration 80000 Number of knowledg ge workers abroad (X) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 scenario 2 baseline Suppose µis decreased by 20% 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years Size of the pool of expatriates over time, baseline and scenario 2
Simulations Policy Scenarios: changes due to a reduction of emigration 500 450 400 Baseline 350 (V V+R)/X 300 250 200 150 100 Scenario 2 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years Comparison of (V+R)/X for baseline and scenario 2.
Simulations Policy Scenarios: the attraction of global talent from abroad. Number of knowledge e workers abroad (X) 220000 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 scenario 3 baseline Scenario3* Assumption: new additions proportional to size of domestic pool of workers (i.e., V(t) + R(t)), with a proportionality factor of 0.003. Comparison to scenario 3* that assumes an annual injection of 0.005%. 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years Size of the pool of expatriates over time, baseline, scenarios 3 and 3*
Simulations Policy Scenarios: the attraction of global talent from abroad. 200 150 (V+ +R)/X 100 50 Scenario3 Scenario3* 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Years Comparison of (V+R)/X for scenario 3 and scenario 3*
Conclusion and Discussion Anecdotal evidence suggests that impact of the economic crisis has a skills bias. A dynamic model to simulate policies and conditions aimed at attracting or retaining highly skilled workers, and /or on the in-situ growth of human capital. Our models indicate: Policies geared towards reducing emigration are a more effective strategy to accumulating human capital than those aimed at attracting expatriates. Polices geared towards attracting high-skilled immigrants may be more cost-effective than training natives.
Directions for Future Research Allow for heterogeneity in the model and, for example, allow exit rates (µ) to vary by age and exit rates (ρ) to vary by duration of stay abroad. Add more spells to the model such that returnees are at risk of reemigrating. Extend the analysis by allowing for interdependencies that take into account, for example, whether policies that aim at attracting foreign high-skilled workers also have an effect on reducing µand increasing ρ.