National Opinion Poll: ruary 2018 - for Publication on 18 th ruary 2018 41111511/PM 1
Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 18 th ruary 2018. The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, the upcoming Referendum on the 8 th Amendment and a Potential Presidential Election. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 970 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 6 th 14 th ruary 2018. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1. 2
Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 970 adults representative of the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 The 970 interviews in the poll were carried out between 6 th and 14 th ruary 2018. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. POLL Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2018. 3
The Results
A snapshot which favours Fine Gael, while Fianna Fáil must mind the gap This latest Sunday Independent/Kantar Millward Brown opinion poll, conducted up until Wednesday of this week, coincides with a relatively happy time for the Government, and this is reflected in these results. The headline figure sees Fine Gael rise six points to 36pc since our last comparable poll in summer 2017. This represents its highest outing so far in this series of opinion polls, and is a ten-point increase on its General Election showing of two years ago. Of course, this is a snapshot, with no General Election on the immediate horizon (even though these results may add impetus to the more hawkish elements in FG to call an early election). Remember the party had momentum going into the 2016 election, which dissipated quickly. The backdrop to this poll is continuingly positive economic indicators, Brexit (which in the short term is ironically proving to be a boon for the party) and more recently, the announcement of the Project Ireland 2040 plan. Brexit as a benefit to FG is largely down to the success of, and preparedness of the Department of Foreign Affairs over the past two years. It has enabled us to play hard ball with the UK, safe in the knowledge that the EU is in our corner. Thus, time and time again, Leo Varadkar in particular can don the green jersey and punch above his weight in negotiations. No doubt the UK Government is rueing their lack of foresight on this front. The 2040 plan, which was being drip-fed to the public during the course of interviewing, provides the mood music to this poll. Regardless of rural concerns, there is undeniably a feel-good factor generated by the proposal announced. How much will be achieved is a moot point, and whilst it is both easy and understandable to be cynical (look no further than Bertie s Transport Plan), there is still the undoubted attraction of being promised shiny new things. Fianna Fail remain relatively steady at 28pc, which given the circumstances outlined is not a bad result. However, just as FG backbenchers will be buoyant, there will be some within FF feeling edgy. Letting too much clear blue water develop between the parties is always a danger - remember, exactly one year ago, the party held an eight-point lead. It is now an eight-point deficit. 5
A snapshot which favours Fine Gael, while Fianna Fáil must mind the gap The issue is, how can the party resurrect its standing when there are no obvious bad news stories on the horizon for the Government (notwithstanding the ongoing housing, homeless and health storm, which, to a certain extent, the Government has weathered). Coupled with a giveaway budget in October, time is running out for FF to bridge the gap. Many have said that Micheal Martin s best opportunity to strike was when Enda Kenny was a lame duck Taoiseach. With Leo at the helm, the ground rules have changed. Whilst Theresa May going to the country on the back of poll results backfired spectacularly last year, one suspects that Leo would not make the same campaigning mistakes. Sinn Fein remain stubbornly rooted on 20pc. The impact of Mary Lou s coronation at this stage has been negligible. Labour will be bitterly disappointed to fall back to four percent. Even though they (and in particular Alan Kelly) have been effective more recently in the Dail, they are simply not gaining any traction. Come the next General Election, they must pick their battles carefully. As it stands now, they are being squeezed by the electorate to the point of irrelevance, with other parties gladly picking up the slack. The wane of Independence and smaller parties continues. It seems that there is a large, and fickle, floating vote available within the electorate; Fine Gael borrowed them from Fianna Fail in 2011, lost them again in 2016, and now seem to be more attractive to them in 2018. The rise in FG s popularity is mirrored in satisfaction with Government. Nearly half (49pc) are happy with how the country is being run. This level of support is at its highest in this series of polls, and is at a level not seen since before the crash, 10 years ago. Support is highest among the Party faithful (82pc of FG supporters), the farming community (76pc), more affluent ABs (62pc) and those over the age of 65 (57). Interestingly many of these cohorts are the most likely to turn out to vote on Polling Day. Dubliners and those living in Conn/Ulster are also more complimentary in their appraisal. 6
Are we heading towards Stalingrad? Looking at party leaders, satisfaction with Leo Varadkar has surged nine-points, and now stands at 58pc over twice the support that Enda Kenny received at any time from before the election in 2016. That said, Micheal Martin hasn t fared too badly either he is up three points to 48pc; his highest approval rating. His honest stance on the 8 th Amendment may well have boosted his ratings (albeit it was not to everybody s taste). Mary Lou Gains the nod from 39pc. This is a higher rating than Gerry Adams ever achieved, but it is still early days she will need to stamp her own identity onto the leadership of her party amid a suspicious public questioning who is really pulling the strings. The only leader to see a drop in support is Brendan Howlin, reflecting the general malaise that is associated with all things Labour. He is in the job for close on 18 months, and this (22pc) is his lowest rating so far. Like his party, he too is failing to gain traction with the electorate. One in four (24pc) of his own party, albeit off a small base, are dissatisfied with his performance, noticeably higher than other party leaders. A final metric to suggest that the tailwinds are behind Fine Gael is our party toxicity question. That is, which party would the public not vote for? While Fianna Fail continue to be the least toxic party (just 17pc explicitly state they would not vote for them), a more interesting trend is that Fine Gael is also becoming more palatable. Exactly this time last year, a third of the electorate (32pc) would not vote for them. This dropped to 25pc during the summer, and now stands at 22pc. A 10-point reversal in 12 months. The omens again look good. Moving away from party politics, the only show in town over the next few months will be the 8 th Amendment referendum. This referendum will be both Conservative and Liberal Ireland s equivalent of Stalingrad. The Same Sex Marriage Referendum was simply the curtain raiser to paraphrase the late Seamus Brennan, we re playing senior hurling now. For this latest poll, we gauged support of a repeal of the 8 th (in general terms), in what circumstances abortion is acceptable, and specifically attitudes towards the 12 week abortion proposal. On the face of it, it seems that support for reform is holding up strongly. Nearly two in three (63pc) agree that repeal is desired, versus 24pc saying it is not, and 13pc not offering an opinion. Stripping out the don t knows, this equates to a 72:28 majority. Of course, as minds focus, there can be opposing motivations for wanting to hold a referendum. 7
Are we heading towards Stalingrad? It is more instructive to ask of when abortion is considered acceptable. We have tracked distress scenarios (rape, suicide, mother s health and fatal foetal abnormalities) over the years, with our last data point being prior to the general election. On each occasion, and again in this latest poll, there has been clear majority in each of these cases to allow abortion. It is interesting to note that in this latest poll, support on all such scenarios has softened slightly. More importantly, in this most recent poll, we asked if the recommendation to allow abortion without restriction up to 12 weeks goes too far, not far enough or is about right. Four in ten say it is about right, versus 33pc saying it goes too far. A further 8pc say it doesn t go far enough, with 19pc undecided. This equates to a ratio of 48:52 in favour of Advocates of the plan versus Those against/those not sure. This suggests that the battle ahead may be not as clear-cut a result as the headline figures suggest. It is too simple to assume that Undecideds will breakdown evenly. We have seen in the past that in referenda, many who are unsure of a constitutional change, simply revert to the comfort zone of the Status Quo, especially if it doesn t affect them directly. In addition, as we saw in the same sex marriage referendum, when the odds are stacked in favour of one Arguments side, then waverers may be reluctant to show their hand, even if they are tending to the opposite direction. These findings suggest that the upcoming referendum is one where no side can take anything for granted. The wording of this plebiscite will be critical. However, either way, it is going to be an emotive and aggressive campaign, which will define how we see ourselves as a nation. 8
National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions
Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result 2016 Opinion Poll 2018 Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll 2018 Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 26 Fine Gael 29 Fine Gael 36 Labour Fianna Fáil 7 24 Labour Fianna Fáil 3 22 Labour 4 Green Party Independents/others Renua Ireland AAA-PBP Social Democrats Sinn Féin 3 18 2 4 3 14 Green Party Sinn Féin Others Don t know 2 16 8 20 Fianna Fáil Green Party Sinn Féin Others 28 2 20 11 Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 10
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: October 2016 ruary 2017 July 2017 ruary 2018 AAA-PBP 2 3 1 1 Social Democrats 1 2 * 1 Independent Candidates/ Other Parties 6 4 7 6 Independent Alliance 5 5 5 3 June 20 th 28 th Aug 3 rd -12 th Aug 17 th -27 th Sep 13 th 25 th Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 19 th -28 th Apr 5 th -15 th Jul 18 th 30 th Sep 9 th -18 th Oct st 31 st Dec 8 th -18 th Jan 30th - 9 th Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd 19 th -26 th June 19th-30 th July 28 th Oct- 6 th Nov 25 th Jan- 4 th 2016 General Election 2016 18 th -30 th June 2016 8 th -20 th Oct 2016 6 th -16 th 2017 9th-st July 2017 6 th -14 th 2018 Fine Gael 26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 29 24 29 27 26 30 29 25 30 36 Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party Independents/ others* 29 25 28 27 27 24 26 19 19 19 19 16 8 8 8 1 2 1 10 9 9 12 1 1 1 1 18 15 18 14 17 18 15 20 18 20 22 22 24 22 26 20 5 2 8 6 7 9 7 2 2 1 1 1 32 20 23 23 23 19 19 23 26 24 6 8 1 3 6 1 23 20 20 23 7 1 24 24 7 1 19 22 24 14 7 6 1 3 22 27 26 27 33 29 28 20 20 20 20 20 7 8 6 3 7 2 2 2 4 2 14 15 14 13 11 * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 11
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: October 2016 ruary 2017 July 2017 ruary 2018 Solidarity-PBP 2 3 1 1 Social Democrats 1 2 * 1 Independent Candidates/ Other Parties 6 4 7 6 Independent Alliance 5 5 5 3 Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others* 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5-29 26 29 28 19 18 19 15 27 25 18 8 8 8 1 1 Jun 20th- 28th Aug 3rd- 12th 2 Aug 17th- 27th 28 27 27 27 24 19 19 17 18 14 10 9 9 30 26 16 15 12 1 1 1 1 Sep 13th- 25th Sep 30th- Oct 9th Nov 3rd- 13th Jan 15th- 24th 27 22 20 8 29 22 20 6 2 2 19th- 24th Apr 5th- 15th 25 25 26 24 23 22 22 20 22 23 23 20 18 7 9 7 1 1 1 Jul 18th- 30th Sep 9th- 18th Oct st- 31st 32 5 2 Dec 8th- 18th 29 29 25 26 27 25 23 24 23 23 24 24 22 19 19 20 20 19 6 1 Jan 29th- 9th 8 3 Mar 24th- Apr 2nd 6 7 7 6 1 1 1 1 19th-26th Jun 19th-30th Jul 28th Oct- 6th Nov 25th Jan - 4th 2016 26 27 24 14 30 26 7 7 3 3 General Election 2016 29 27 33 25 30 29 36 28 20 20 20 20 20 14 18th-30th June 2016 15 14 13 11 8 6 7 4 2 2 2 2 8th-20th Oct 2016 6th-16th 2017 9th-st July 2017 6th-14th 2018 * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 12
Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference 36 282727 30 27 29 2525 2525 29 2222 24 29 2726 30 29 30 25 2727 24 26 22 20 20 18 1919 2323 24 22 24 2626 2733 29 28 1919 22 24 26 26 20 22 24 16 142020202020 INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* 32 10 9 9 12 8 6 7 9 7 5 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 7 4 14 17 18 15 20232323 23 2020 24 19 22 27 14 17 1615 13 *Includes all others (including Greens) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 13
Satisfaction with the Government has risen sharply since again. Nearly half are now happy with its performance One in Two are happy HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 70 Independents/Others Supporters 63 55-64 54 DEs 54 Fianna Fáil Supporters 51 45-54 50 Uncommitted Voters 50 ROL Residents 49 Dissatisfied (50) 45 49 Satisfied (40) HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 82 Farming Community 76 ABs 62 65+ 57 Conn/Ulster Residents 56 Dublin Residents 54 7 35-44 53 Males 52 Don t know (9) ( ) = July 2017 Results Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 14
Satisfaction with Government Over Time There has been a significant uplift in the public s appraisal of the Government s performance; Satisfaction is at its highest level seen so far Results Results Results 2016 Results 2017 Results 2018 Results June 20 th 28 th Aug 3 rd -12 th Aug 17 th -27 th Sep 13 th 25 th Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 19 th -28 th Apr 5 th -15 th Jul 18 th 30 th Sep 9 th -18 th Oct st 31 st Dec 8 th -18 th Jan 30th - 9 th Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd 19 th -26 th June 19th-30 th July 28 th Oct- 6 th Nov 25 th Jan- 4 th 2016 18 th -30 th June 2016 8 th -20 th Oct 2016 6 th -16 th 2017 9 th - st July 2017 6 th -14 th 2018 Dissatisfied 75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71 66 69 62 73 71 68 69 63 67 60 62 60 62 64 50 45 Satisfied 17 19 19 20 19 23 20 24 23 27 19 23 26 29 25 32 29 28 31 27 40 49 Don t know 7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 11 6 9 9 5 8 8 8 9 11 8 9 10 7 15
Satisfaction with Party Leaders Enda Kenny Leo Varadkar Joan Burton Brendan Howlin Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Mary Lou McDonald Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 Satisfied 24 27 32 25 31 27 27 29 27 49 58 22 23 25 26 20 24 22 27 25 26 28 22 24 29 30 36 32 32 27 43 43 44 45 48 23 29 32 30 30 27 27 31 29 30 35 39 Dissatisfied 69 64 67 59 66 60 62 63 59 62 28 29 43 47 48 43 48 62 61 57 65 65 62 62 56 49 57 45 49 49 48 38 40 40 36 36 57 50 37 56 52 51 55 51 51 51 44 54 Don t know (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12) (11) (24) (13) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (26) (29) (30) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (16) (19) (16) (20) () (12) (18) (19) (18) () (18) (19) (16) (22) (24) Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? 16
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 49 Independents/Others Supporters 43 DEs 37 55-64 35 45-54 33 Males 32 Munster Residents 32 Urban Residents 32 Fianna Fáil Supporters 32 Dissatisfied (28) 29 58 Satisfied (49) Fine Gael Supporters 86 Farming Community 73 ABs 71 Conn/Ulster Residents 69 35-44 63 Rural Residents 62 65+ 61 Don t know (24) 13 Labour Supporters* 61 ( ) = July 2017 Results *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? 17
Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 59 45-54 57 Dublin Residents 57 Independents/Others Supporters 54 Males 53 ABs 52 Urban Residents 52 Fianna Fáil Supporters 52 55-64 51 Dissatisfied (43) 48 22 Satisfied (28) 30 Don t know (29) HIGHER AMONG Labour Supporters* 70 Conn/Ulster Residents 36 Farming Community 34 Fine Gael Supporters 29 45-54 25 ( ) = July 2017 Results *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? 18
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin ( ) = July 2017 Results HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 61 45-54 41 55-64 41 Independents/Others Supporters 41 Males 40 C2DES 40 Fine Gael Supporters 40 Dublin Residents 39 Dissatisfied 48 (36) Satisfied (45) 36 16 Don t know (19) HIGHER AMONG Fianna Fáil Supporters 80 Labour Supporters* 60 Conn/Ulster Residents 56 ABC1s 55 65+ 53 Farming Community 53 35-54 51 Rural Residents 51 Fine Gael Supporters 51 *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? 19
Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 50 Dublin Residents 47 Farming Community 46 45-54 45 Labour Supporters* 45 Independents/Others Supporters 44 65+ 43 Fianna Fáil Supporters 41 Dissatisfied (44*) 39 Satisfied 37 (35*) 24 Don t know (22*) HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 83 Conn/Ulster Residents 48 25-34 43 Males 42 DEs 42 ( *) = July 2017 Results for Gerry Adams *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? 20
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support Total Supporters Supporters* Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters* Leo Varadkar (49) 58 86 61 58 37 46 Brendan Howlin (28) 22 29 70 27 11 16 Satisfied Michéal Martin (45) 48 51 60 80 23 45 # Mary Lou McDonald (35) 39 29 36 39 83 32 Leo Varadkar (28) 29 10 34 32 49 43 Brendan Howlin (43) 48 50 24 52 59 54 Dissatisfied Michéal Martin (36) 36 40 32 16 61 41 # Mary Lou McDonald (44) 37 50 45 41 10 44 * Includes all other parties # Previously Gerry Adams *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain the least toxic of the main parties, with Fine Gael also becoming more palatable to the electorate WOULD NOT CONSIDER 2016 June 2016 Oct 2016 2017 July 2017 Fine Gael (34) (35) (32) (32) (25) 2018 22 Supporters Supporters* Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters* - 33 28 56 38 Labour (31) (28) (22) (24) (25) 24 18-36 37 35 Fianna Fáil (24) (25) () () (18) 17 14 26-47 25 Sinn Féin (37) (40) (38) (36) (34) 36 52 38 58-33 Solidarity/People Before Profit (16) (17) (18) (22) (24) 27 22 28 17 18 Green Party (n/a) (18) (17) (20) (24) Social Democrats (9) (8) (10) (14) (19) 22 18 28 32 28 17 22 13 17 * Includes all other parties ()=previous results *Caution small base size Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election? 22
Additional Issues for publication: The 8 th Amendment and a Potential Presidential Election
Nearly two in three support a referendum on the 8 th Amendment September ruary March/ April June Oct/Nov 2018 HIGHER AMONG 35-44 78 18-24 74 Females 18-44 72 Dublin Residents 71 Munster Residents 71 In favour 56 56 64 66 56 63 ABC1 69 Labour Supporters* 69 Sinn Féin Supporters 68 25-34 67 Independents/Others Supporters 66 Against Don t know 19 25 13 31 18 19 18 15 22 22 24 13 HIGHER AMONG 65+ 41 Farming Community 33 Conn/Ulster Residents 30 DEs 28 Females 27 Fianna Fáil Supporters 27 *Caution small base size Q. Are you personally in favour, or against, holding a referendum to repeal the 8th amendment to the Constitution, which currently gives equal right to life to the mother and the foetus? 24
Circumstances where abortion is acceptable a summary Where there is the threat of the mother s suicide In a case of when a woman has become pregnant as a result of rape Where there is a medical risk to the mother s life other than suicide Where there is a threat to the long term health of the mother Where the mother decides to have an abortion for other reasons Where the unborn child has been diagnosed with fatal foetal abnormality Early May Late May Sep Mar/ Apr June Oct/ Nov 2018 Early May Late May Sep Mar/ Apr June Oct/ Nov 2018 Early May Late May Sep Mar/ Apr June Oct/ Nov 2018 Early May Late May Sep Mar/ Apr June Oct/ Nov 2018 Early May Late May Sep Mar/ Apr June Oct/ Nov 2018 Mar/ Apr 19 th - 26 th June Oct/ Nov 2018 26 28 30 34 32 31 31 28 Yes, acceptable 58 53 53 60 60 61 60 55 72 71 68 69 67 72 68 65 77 78 69 72 70 72 68 63 69 69 64 68 67 69 64 58 63 64 55 54 40 45 45 38 41 43 43 44 No, unacceptable It depends Don t know 17 23 26 23 20 23 19 20 19 10 16 13 18 16 17 16 14 14 9 17 11 10 15 18 14 18 14 13 10 14 14 13 25 8 16 8 16 16 13 13 14 15 14 11 9 12 11 10 9 11 11 9 8 12 11 13 9 12 13 15 19 20 14 15 20 18 20 14 15 14 15 20 20 11 14 10 17 15 8 8 5 8 4 7 5 8 7 6 7 5 4 6 6 7 6 5 5 7 6 6 8 7 6 7 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 8 5 9 7 9 6 8 5 8 8 8 Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland? 25
Is abortion acceptable where there is a threat of suicide? A slim majority believe it is. THREAT OF SUICIDE HIGHER AMONG 65+ 37 Farming Community 34 Conn/Ulster Residents 30 Fianna Fáil Supporters 28 Rural Residents 27 Females 26 No, Unacceptable () It depends (14) 23 14 55 Yes, Acceptable (60) HIGHER AMONG 18-24 66 Munster Residents 65 Sinn Féin Supporters 63 ABs 63 35-44 61 Dublin Residents 60 DEs 26 8 Don t know (5) ( )= November Results Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland? 26
Is abortion acceptable when pregnancy is a result of rape? Two in three agree with one in six opposing such a scenario HIGHER AMONG 65+ 31 Conn/Ulster Residents 31 Farming Community 29 Rural Residents 22 Fianna Fáil Supporters 22 DEs No, Unacceptable (16) Yes, Acceptable 17 (68) It depends (11) 11 Don t know (6) PREGNANCY AS A RESULT OF RAPE 7 65 HIGHER AMONG Munster Residents 76 18-24 74 Sinn Féin Supporters 74 25-34 73 35-44 73 ABC1s 71 Dublin Residents 70 Labour Supporters* 69 Urban Residents 68 ( )= November Results *Caution small base size Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland? 27
Is abortion acceptable when there is a medical risk to the mothers life other than suicide? Just under two in three believe this to be the case MEDICAL RISK TO MOTHERS LIFE (other than suicide) HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Farming Community 24 Independents/Others Supporters 24 65+ 23 55-64 20 Fine Gael Supporters 19 No, Unacceptable (14) It depends (12) 16 13 63 Yes, Acceptable (68) Munster Residents 74 35-44 72 Sinn Féin Supporters 71 25-34 69 ABC1s 68 18-24 66 Don t know (6) 8 ( )= November Results Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland? 28
Is abortion acceptable when there is a threat to the long term health of the mother? Again, there was been some slippage in support THREAT TO LONG TERM HEALTH OF MOTHER HIGHER AMONG Farming Community 26 Independents/Others Supporters 25 65+ 24 Females 22 No, Unacceptable (15) 19 58 Yes, Acceptable (64) HIGHER AMONG 18-24 67 35-44 67 Munster Residents 67 Sinn Féin Supporters 65 25-34 63 It depends (15) 15 ABC1s 63 Dublin Residents 63 8 Labour Supporters* 62 Don t know (6) ( )= November Results *Caution small base size Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland? 29
Is abortion acceptable when the mother decides for other reasons? Less than three in ten are comfortable with this proposition HIGHER AMONG 65+ 59 Conn/Ulster Residents 57 Farming Community 51 55-64 49 Munster Residents 49 Independents/Others Supporters 49 Rural Residents 48 Fianna Fáil Supporters 48 ( )= November Results DEs 47 MOTHER DECIDES TO HAVE ABORTION FOR OTHER REASONS No, Unacceptable (43) 44 28 Yes, Acceptable (31) 20 It depends (20) 8 Don t know (6) HIGHER AMONG Dublin Residents 50 Labour Supporters* 40 35-44 36 25-34 35 Sinn Féin Supporters 35 18-24 33 ABC1s 33 Urban Residents 32 45-54 31 *Caution small base size Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland? 30
Is abortion acceptable in the event of fatal foetal abnormality? A slim majority believe it is, with nearly one in four disgreeing UNBORN CHILD HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH A FATAL FOETAL ABNORMALITY HIGHER AMONG 65+ 34 ABs 28 No, Unacceptable (20) 23 Yes, Acceptable (55) HIGHER AMONG 18-24 64 35-44 62 Conn/Ulster Residents 62 54 Munster Residents 61 Sinn Féin Supporters 60 It depends (17) 15 Dublin Residents 59 25-34 58 8 ABC1s 57 Don t know (8) ( )= November Results Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland? 31
Opinions on the 12 week Abortion Proposal. One in three have reservations, and there is a substantial minority undecided HIGHER AMONG 65+ 47 Munster Residents 44 DEs 42 Conn/Ulster Residents 40 55-64 39 Rural Residents 39 Fianna Fáil Supporters 38 Too far OPINIONS ON THE 12 WEEK ABORTION PROPOSAL 33 8 Not far enough HIGHER AMONG Labour Supporters* 14 25-34 13 C1s 13 Dublin Residents 18 Urban Residents 12 Sinn Féin Supporters 37 Independents/Others Supporters 37 Females 36 About right 40 19 Don t know ( )= November Results *Caution small base size Q. The Oireachtas Committee on the Eighth Amendment has recommended that Abortion should be available without restriction up to 12 weeks of pregnancy. Do you think that this recommendation goes too far, not far enough, or is about right? 32
Nearly half want Michael D to stay on without the need for a Presidential Election NO APPETITE FOR A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Prefer to see Michael D Higgins stay on for another term without the need for an Election 46 39 Prefer to have a Presidential Election 8 Don t know 6 It depends ( )= November Results Q. It has been seven years since the last presidential election, and there is one due in 2018. Would you like to have a presidential election this year, or would you prefer to see Michael D. Higgins serve a second term without an election being called? 33
For more information, please contact: Paul Moran paul.moran@millwardbrown.com 087 286 0773 6 Ely Place Dublin 2 t. +353 (1) 297 4500 www.millwardbrown.com/ie 41111511/PM 34