NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: Mark Hugo Lopez, Director of Hispanic Research Molly Rohal, Communications Associate 202.419.4372 RECOMMENDED CITATION: Krogstad, Jens Manuel and Mark Hugo Lopez. 2014. Hispanic Voters in the 2014 Election: Democratic Advantage Remains, but Republicans Improve Margin in Some States. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center, November.
1 About This Report Exit poll results for this report were obtained from NBC News and CNN 2014 election websites on November 6, 2014 and are based on national and state exit poll surveys of voters as conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool. In addition to an analysis of the national vote, the vote in five states was examined. These states are California, Florida, Georgia, New York and Texas. This report was written by Jens Manuel Krogstad and Mark Hugo Lopez. Charts and tables were created by Jens Manuel Krogstad. Number-checking was done by Ana Gonzalez-Barrera and Anna Brown. Copy editing was done by Bruce Drake. Find related reports online at pewresearch.org/hispanic. A Note on Terminology The terms and Hispanic are used interchangeably in this report. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. The center studies U.S. politics and policy views; media and journalism; internet and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and U.S. social and demographic trends. All of the center s reports are available at. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Michael Dimock, President Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President Robyn Tomlin, Chief Digital Officer Andrew Kohut, Founding Director Pew Research Center 2014
2 Table of Contents About This Report 1 A Note on Terminology 1 About Pew Research Center 1 Table of Contents 2 Hispanic Vote in Select State Races 4 Democratic Advantage Somewhat Larger among Women 7 Voters Say Economy Top Issue Facing the Country in 2014 7 References 8 Appendix: National and Selected State Results 9
3 BY Jens Manuel Krogstad AND Mark Hugo Lopez Democrats maintained a large edge among s voting in Tuesday s midterm elections, but in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the vote, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of National Election Pool exit poll data as reported by NBC News. Though Democrats comfortably won the vote in nearly all states that had key Senate or gubernatorial races (and for which exit poll data is available), Republican candidates won many of those contests, and will take control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since 2007. FIGURE 1 Vote for Congressional Candidates in National Elections % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their congressional district race 2014 2012 Democrat 38 62 68 89 Republican 60 36 30 10 In congressional races nationally, Democrats 39 59 won the vote by a margin of 62% to 91 8 36%. This is comparable to the last midterm cycle four years ago when six-in-ten (60%) s voted for a Democratic candidate, but down from 2012 when Democrats took 68% of the vote. 2010 37 60 60 38 By comparison, Republicans won the white vote by a nearly as wide a margin 60% to 38%, essentially unchanged from 2010 and 2012. Among black voters, 89% voted for the Democratic candidate in their local congressional election while 10% supported the Republican. This is unchanged from 2010. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2010, 2012 and 2014 National Election Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News, New York Times and CNN, respectively. In 2012, 91% of black voters supported Democrats and 8% backed Republicans. 89 9
4 The national exit poll shows s made up an estimated 8% of voters this year 1. The share of Hispanics who voted remained unchanged from their estimated share in 2010 and 2006 despite the growing share of eligible voters (U.S. citizens ages 18 or older). This year, 11% of all eligible voters are Hispanic, up from 10.1% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2006 (Lopez, Krogstad, Patten and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2014). The unchanged Hispanic share of voters suggests that the Hispanic voter turnout rate may not have changed much from 2010, when 31.2% of Hispanic eligible voters cast a vote. 2 FIGURE 2 Meanwhile, the national exit poll reports the estimated black voter share was 10% in 2006, 11% in 2010 and 12% in 2014. And the share of white voters has declined from 79% in 2006 to 77% in 2010 and now to 75%, reflecting growing diversity of the nation s population and electorate. Vote in Key Senate Races, 2014 % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their Senate race Georgia All Democrat 45 Republican 53 Hispanic 57 42 In several states where exit polling data for Hispanic voters is available, Democrats Texas generally won the Hispanic vote in Senate and gubernatorial races. But in some states, All 34 62 Republicans did well among Hispanics, securing 40% or more of the vote. Hispanic 47 48 This held true for two Senate races. In Georgia, Democrat Michelle Nunn won 57% of the vote to Republican David Perdue s 42%. But Perdue won the election. In Texas, Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the 2014 National Election Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News. the vote was split between incumbent Republican John Cornyn (48%) and Democrat David Alameel (47%), as Cornyn won support from nearly half of s. Exit poll data is not available for the vote in Colorado or North Carolina, two key states in this year s election. 1 While the national exit poll offers an estimate of the demographic composition of voters, for Hispanics, this estimate often differs from that of the U.S. Census Bureau s Current Population Survey (Krogstad and Lopez, 2014). 2 In 2010, 6.6 million Hispanics voted according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the November Current Population Survey. Looked at another way, that s a 31.2% voter turnout rate among Hispanic eligible voters. It was also little changed from 2006, when 32.3% of Hispanics voted (Lopez, Krogstad, Patten and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2014). Final estimates of Hispanic voter turnout and the Hispanic voter turnout rate will be available in the spring of 2015 when Census Bureau data becomes available.
5 In races for governor, the three states with the largest number of voters had contests California, Texas, and Florida. In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott won re-election despite losing the Hispanic vote to Democrat Charlie Crist by a margin of 38% to 58%, according to the state exit poll. That s a marked decline from 2010, when 50% of Hispanics voted for Scott and from 2006, when the vote was split 49%-49% between the two parties. In the Texas race for governor, Democrat Wendy Davis won the vote 55% to 44% but lost the election to Republican Greg Abbott. Democratic support among s in Texas is down from 61% in 2010. Meanwhile, the Republican Abbott won a larger share of the vote (44%) this year than Republican Governor Rick Perry won in 2010 (38%). In California s governor race, a greater share of Hispanics voted Democratic than in the previous two midterm elections. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) won the Hispanic vote by a margin of 73% to 27% in his victory over Republican Neel Kashkari this year. During the previous two elections, the Democratic candidate won 64% (2010) and 56% (2006) of the Hispanic vote. FIGURE 3 Vote in Key Governor Races, 2014 % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their governor race California All Hispanic Florida All Hispanic Georgia All Hispanic New York All Hispanic Texas All Hispanic Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 National Election Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News. Democrat 73 69 59 58 47 53 54 55 45 39 27 27 Republican 41 38 48 53 47 41 44 59 In two other states with exit poll data for gubernatorial races, voters gave their support to Democratic candidates. In New York, incumbent Democrat Andrew Cuomo defeated Republican Rob Astorino among voters by a margin of 69% to 27%. And in Georgia, Republican Nathan Deal defeated Democrat Jason Carter in the race for governor. But Carter won a greater share of the vote than Deal, by a margin of 53% to 47%, according to the state s exit poll.
6 Several Hispanic candidates won elections to statewide offices and Congress this year. Two Hispanic Republicans who won races for governor in 2010 Susana Martinez in New Mexico and Brian Sandoval in Nevada comfortably won re-election. Martinez won with 57% of the vote, and Sandoval 71% (exit poll data on the Hispanic vote in each state was not available). This year saw five new s elected to Congress, according to the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials. In Florida, Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated incumbent Democrat Joe Garcia in the state s 26 th Congressional District. In West Virginia s 2 nd Congressional District, Republican Alex Mooney was elected, while. Ruben Gallego (D) won Arizona s 7 th Congressional District. In California, Democrat Pete Aguilar won in the 31 st Congressional District, and Democrat Norma Torres won in the 35 th Congressional District (exit poll data on the Hispanic vote was not available for these races). 3 3 For more information, see the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials press release.
7 Nationally, Democrats won majorities of the Hispanic vote across many demographic subgroups in congressional races. For example, Hispanic women favored Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 66% to 32%, compared with 57% to 41% among Hispanic men. There were also differences by age. Democrats beat Republicans 68% to 28% among the youngest voters (ages 18-29). The margin was smaller among those ages 30-44, with Democrats winning 56% of the vote. Democrats won 62% of the vote among those ages 45-64 and 65% of those 65 or older. FIGURE 4 s Lean Democratic in Midterms % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their congressional district race this year All Hispanics Men Women Democrat 62 57 66 Republican 36 41 32 Asked about a variety of pressing national 18-29 68 28 priorities, 49% of voters identified the economy as the most important issue facing 30-44 56 42 the country, followed by health care (24%) and illegal immigration (16%). That ranking is 45-64 62 37 similar to that of all U.S. voters, among whom 45% named the economy, 25% heath care and 65+ 64 34 14% illegal immigration. The national exit poll also asked voters whether most illegal immigrants working in the U.S. should be offered legal status or be deported. Three-in-four (74%) voters supported offering legal status, while 21% said illegal immigrants should be deported. By comparison, 57% of U.S. voters said illegal immigrants should be able to gain legal status, and 38% said they should be deported. Notes: Shares of third-party candidates not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by CNN.
8 References Krogstad, Jens Manuel and Mark Hugo Lopez, 2014. Why measuring the demographics of voters on Election Day is difficult. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. November. http:///fact-tank/2014/11/04/why-measuring-the-demographics-ofvoters-on-election-day-is-difficult/ Lopez, Mark Hugo, Jens Manuel Krogstad, Eileen Patten and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. 2014. Voters and the 2014 Midterm Elections. Washington, D.C. Pew Research Center, October. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/10/16/latino-voters-and-the-2014-midterm-elections/
9 Appendix: National and Selected State Results FIGURE A1 National Vote for House, 2006-2014 % voting for candidate in their Congressional district, by race and ethnicity Democrat Republican 2014 38 60 89 10 62 36 2010 37 60 89 9 60 38 2006 47 51 89 10 69 30 Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN.
10 FIGURE A2 California Governor Races, 2006-2014 2014 Brown (D) Kashkari (R) 54 46 89 11 73 27 2010 Brown (D) Whitman (R) 45 50 77 21 64 31 2006 Angelides (D) Schwarzenegger (R) 32 63 70 27 Latin o 56 39 Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN.
11 FIGURE A3 Florida Governor Races, 2006-2014 2014 Crist (D) Scott (R) 37% 58% 85 12 58 38 Sink (D) Scott (R) 2010 41 56 93 6 48 50 2006 Davis (D) Crist (R) 38 59 81 18 49 49 Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN.
12 FIGURE A4 Georgia Senate Race, 2014 Nunn (D) Perdue (R) 23% 74% 92 7 57 42 Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News. FIGURE A5 Georgia Governor Race, 2014 Carter (D) Deal (R) 23% 73% 89 10 53 47 Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News.
13 FIGURE A6 New York Governor Races, 2006-2014 2014 46% Cuomo (D) Astorino (R) 48% 82 14 69 27 2010 51 Cuomo (D) Paladino (R) 44 93 6 81 13 2006 Spitzer (D) 66 Faso (R) 32 89 10 80 20 Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN.
14 FIGURE A7 Texas Governor Races, 2006-2014 2014 Davis (D) Abbott (R) 25 72 92 7 55 44 2010 (D) Perry (R) 29 69 88 11 61 38 2006 Bell (D) Perry (R) Strayhorn (I) Friedman (I) 24 44 18 13 63 16 15 4 41 31 18 9 Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN.
15 FIGURE A8 Texas Senate Race, 2014 Alameel (D) Cornyn (R) 22% 74% 87 10 47 48 voter results not available. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News.