Major changes in European public opinion regarding the European Union

Major changes in European public opinion regarding the European Union Exploratory study Updated November 2016 STUDY Public Opinion Monitoring series Directorate-General for Communication Published by EPRS European Parliament Research Service Author : Jacques Nancy Public Opinion Monitoring Unit PE 596.847 - November 2016

European Union, 2016. Further information: public.opinion.monitoring@europarl.europa.eu 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 4 I. THE EUROPEAN UNION, ITS POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS... 6 1. Membership of the European Union and the benefits it brings...8 2. Trust in the European Union... 15 3. The image of the European Union and what it means to Europeans... 16 4. Trust in the European institutions... 20 5. Knowledge of how the European institutions work... 26 6. Trust in national institutions... 31 II. DEMOCRACY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION... 34 1. The voice of European citizens... 34 2. A feeling of European citizenship which survives the crisis... 38 3. An enduring attachment to the European Union... 40 4. The components of an EU identity... 42 III. THE ECONOMY IN THE EU... 44 1. The European economic situation and that of the national economy... 45 2. Economic projections... 49 IV. THE LIVES OF EUROPEANS... 53 V. IMMIGRATION... 57 CONCLUSION... 65 3

INTRODUCTION Since 1973 and the birth of the Eurobarometer, the European Union has gone through various defining stages in its history and its institutional and political structure, affecting a wide range of issues: the strengthening of the institutions, the first direct to the European Parliament in 1979, successive enlargements, the signing of various European Treaties, the opening of borders between Member States, referendums and the introduction of the single currency. But the evolution of the European Union has also taken place during various periods of economic and political difficulty. It has seen the collapse of the Soviet bloc, international conflicts, several oil crises, periods of monetary instability, and, since, a global financial and economic crisis which has resulted in aid plans being introduced for several Member States faced with very considerable economic difficulties. In 2016, the European Union has still to emerge from the crisis, even if the economy is showing encouraging signs of recovery, particularly as regards the unemployment rate, which has been falling steadily since. On the political level, the major event in the European Union in 2016 was the referendum in the United Kingdom on 23, which saw British voters decide to leave the EU. The Standard Eurobarometer, a survey established in 1973 and conducted twice a year (in spring and autumn), and the special Eurobarometers have ever since enabled changes in European public opinion to be measured among an ever-increasing number of Europeans as the various enlargements have taken place (from nine Member States in 1979 to 28 in ). Kantar Public Brussels has carried out an exploratory study for the European Parliament s Public Opinion Monitoring Unit to analyse changes in European public opinion over time on a number of issues. The first version of this study was carried out in, followed by an update in early, which took into account the surveys conducted in and. Following the Standard Eurobarometer survey of spring 2016 and the Special Parlemeter Eurobarometer survey in September 2016, the analysis should be updated. The Standard Eurobarometer survey of spring 2016 was carried out between 21 and 31 May 2016, right in the middle of the campaign for the British referendum, which was held on 23. The Parlemeter, for which the field work was undertaken between 24 September and 3 October 2016, was the first Eurobarometer survey to be conducted following the vote in favour of Brexit. The following aspects were studied: - Changes in European public opinion regarding the European Union and its institutions; - Democracy in the European Union; - The economy of the European Union; - The lives of Europeans; - Immigration. Several indicators will be analysed in each of these areas. This analysis will attempt to take stock of European public opinion concerning these major themes. Each part starts with a box highlighting the main findings based on changes in the indicators. 4

This analysis is based on several quantitative Eurobarometer surveys conducted face-to-face by the European Commission or European Parliament (Standard EB and Special EB)1. It relates mainly to the Eurobarometer surveys conducted since autumn 1989 (EB32), even though in most cases the questions analysed have only been asked more recently, sometimes only in a limited number of waves. On certain questions, the analysis goes back to the first time the question was asked (EB0 in September 1973 in the case of the question on membership of the EU, or EB19 in spring 1983 in the case of the perceived benefits of membership of the European Union). The analysis is based on the European average of the Member States which made up the European Union at the time the survey was conducted. This average is weighted to reflect the population of each of the Member States. The reader should take into account the fact that in today s Europe of 28 Member States, the six most populous countries represent 70% of the EU average. In the case of a Standard EB (a survey conducted twice a year, in spring and autumn), the survey is designated in the graphs by its number and by the period in which it was conducted. For example, we talk about EB78, autumn when referring to Standard Eurobarometer survey 78, conducted in autumn. In the case of a Special Eurobarometer, the survey is designated by the exact name of the wave in which it was conducted, as well as by the month(s) in which the field work was carried out. So, for example, we talk about EB67.1, February. In the text, each survey will be designated by the month in which it was carried out. 1 5

I. THE EUROPEAN UNION, ITS POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS THE MAIN FINDINGS The impact of the economic context on opinions regarding the European Union follows a complex mechanism. The onset of economic crises does not automatically result in a downgrading of opinions regarding the European Union (at least, not at first): we have seen this with the oil crisis in the 1970s, the economic slowdown of the early 2000s when the internet bubble burst, and even with the financial crisis since. Initially, the European Union can be seen as a buffer against the crisis. Indicators of support for the EU (opinions on a country s membership, trust in the EU, image) do not improve, but they hold firm. Europeans seem to react more when the effects of these crises appear more tangible and likely to affect them directly. Opinions about the European Union fell more significantly in the periods of monetary instability in the 1970s and also in the 1990s; since, when the economic and financial crisis became a debt crisis with a strong rise in unemployment in some Member States, is when negative opinions about the EU start to rise (from ). In contrast, was marked not only by the increase to 27 Member States (with the accession of Romania and Bulgaria) but also by a more favourable economic environment in the European Union; and it was a year of record support for and trust in the European Union. The major institutional moments in the EU s history often coincide with a rise in positive opinions about the EU. This has particularly been the case with the enlargements and to the European Parliament. Before the enlargements there has often been a certain hardening of European public opinion about the EU, probably because European citizens are concerned about the consequences of these new countries joining. This was particularly the case in 2003, ahead of the enlargement from 15 to 25 members in 2004. However, surveys conducted after enlargements have mostly recorded significant improvements in opinion, owing to the enthusiasm of the newcomers, and also to a form of acceptance by other Europeans of this new stage. 6

Elections to the European Parliament are also a time when indicators of support for the European Union improve: these indicators improved significantly after the 2004 vote, for example, but the improvement was less marked after those of and. The year, which was marked by the debate over ratification of the Constitutional Treaty, was an exception as far as major institutional moments are concerned, because opinions tended to decline: public perception of EU membership and the image of the EU also went down. Trust in the EU, however, remained stable. The impact of the single currency on the main indicators of opinion regarding the European Union is also not unambiguous: o on the eve of the single currency being put into circulation in the first 11 countries of the eurozone, indicators tended to improve (trust in the EU or opinion about a country s membership). o In spring 2002, after the introduction of the euro, the EU s image improved and opinions on membership held firm, but trust in the EU fell. Overall in the period under analysis since 1997 for trust in the EU and spring 2000 for the image of the EU there has been a significant fall in these two key indicators of support for the European Union. Europeans blame it more for the economic weaknesses and associate it less with the founding principles, such as democracy and influence in the world. Trust in the institutions has also been strongly shaken by the economic crisis. After a notable decline in autumn, trust in the European Union stabilised in spring 2016. The image which Europeans have of the EU is increasingly less positive, with neutral becoming the majority image. Trust in the EU is higher than in national institutions (governments and parliaments), but the gap has tended to close since the onset of the crisis. However, despite the crisis Europeans continue to associate the EU with positive themes: o benefits of membership at the highest level since 1983; o a feeling of both national and European citizenship also remaining at a high level, just below the highest level, which was reached in spring. 7

1. Membership of the European Union and the benefits it brings Membership of the European Union: above all, a good thing in the eyes of Europeans from 1973 to. The opinions expressed by Europeans on their country s membership of the European Union2 have remained largely positive throughout the whole of the period under review (1973 2016). Similarly, neutral opinions, i.e. deeming one s country s membership of the Union to be neither a good thing nor a bad thing, have remained greater than negative opinions (i.e. classifying membership of the EU as a bad thing ). 2 In general, do you think that the fact that (OUR COUNTRY) is part of the European Union is...? 8

Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY)'s membership of the European Union is...? A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad 6 5 60% 6 60% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 5 5 51% 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10% 2 2 5 10% 1 1 2 2 1 2 6 60% EB23 1985 EB24 1985 EB0 EB1 EB2 EB3 EB4 EB5 EB6 EB7 EB8 EB9 1973 1974 1974 1975 1975 1976 1976 1977 1977 1978 EB10 1978 EB11 1979 EB12 1979 EB13 1980 EB14 1980 EB15 1981 EB16 1981 EB17 1982 EB18 1982 EB19 1983 EB20 1983 EB21 1984 EB22 1984 EB25 1986 Oil crisis Single European Act EU9 1st EP EU10 9 2nd EP EU12 EB26 1986

Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY)'s membership of the European Union is...? A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad 71% 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 60% 60% 60% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51% 4 51% 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 EB27 1987 EB28 1987 EB29 1988 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10% EB30 1988 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 EB31 1989 EB32 1989 EB33 1990 EB34 1990 EB35 1991 EB36 1991 EB37 1992 EB38 1992 EB39 1993 EB40 1993 EB41 1994 EB42 1994 EB43 1995 EB44 1995 EB45 1996 EB46 1996 EB47 1997 EB48 1997 EB49 1998 10% EB50 1998 EB51 1999 - Gulf War - Financial crisis Mad Cow Fall of the Berlin wall Disease Schengen 3rd EP Stability and German unification 1 1 1 Growth Pact Maastricht Treaty 4th EP 5th EP EU15 10 EB52 1999

Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY)'s membership of the European Union is...? A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10% EB54 2000 EB55 2001 EB56 2001 EB57 2002 EB58 2002 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EB53 2000 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 10% 2 1 1 1 4 2 2 4 4 2 EB59 2003 EB60 2003 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB75 EB77.4 EB79.5 EB82.4 December EB84.1 September EB86.1 Sept. Oct. 2016 Subprimes The Ukrainian Effects of the Lisbon Treaty Migration Bolkenstein crisis Directive 8th EP 7th EP 6th EP Euro Brexit Constitution Failure Election of the Juncker EU27 Commission EU25 11

The benefits of membership of the European Union: always a majority over the period, with the highest level ever in and 2016. The feeling that one s country has benefited from being a member of the European Union3 has remained a majority sentiment throughout the period under review, from spring 1983 to September 2016. In the September and September 2016 surveys it was 60%, which is the highest level ever achieved since 1983. The response has not benefited reached its highest ever level in the survey in autumn (3), whilst nevertheless remaining at a much lower level than that of the positive responses has benefited (). 3 All things considered, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY) has or has not benefited from EU membership? 12

Taking everything into account, would you say that (OUR COUNTRY) has on balance benefited or not from being a member of the EU? Benefited Not benefited 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 51% 5 EB19 1983 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 EB21 1984 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 1 1 EB22 1984 EB23 1985 EB24 1985 EB25 1986 1 1 EB26 1986 EB27 1987 1 EB28 1987 1 EB29 1988 1 EB30 1988 2 1 1 EB32 1989 EB33 1990 1 EB31 1989 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 EB34 1990 1 1 1 1 EB36 1991 EB37 1992 EB38 1992 EB39 1993 1 EB35 1991 1 EB40 1993 EB41 1994 EB42 1994 1 EB43 1995 - Gulf War - Financial crisis Fall of the Berlin Wall Single European Act EB44 1995 EB45 1996 EB46 1996 2 EB47 1997 Mad Cow Disease Stability and Growth Pact Schengen 2nd EP 4 3 2 1 4 2 2 2 5 Maastricht Treaty 3rd EP German unification EU12 4th EP EU15 13 EB48 1997

Taking everything into account, would you say that (OUR COUNTRY) has on balance benefited or not from being a member of the EU? Benefited Not benefited 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 51% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 EB50 1998 EB51 1999 EB52 1999 EB53 2000 EB54 2000 EB55 2001 EB56 2001 5 3 3 3 3 EB79.5 EB84.1 September EB86.1 Sept. Oct. 2016 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 EB49 1998 60% 5 4 3 3 60% 5 EB57 2002 EB58 2002 EB59 2003 EB60 2003 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 1 1 EB63 EB64 1 EB65 1 EB66 EB67 1 1 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 1 EB73 EB74 EB75 Effects of Subprimes the The Ukrainian Lisbon Treaty Brexit Migration Bolkestein Directive 5th EP 6th EP 7th EP Euro 8th EP Constitution Failure Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 EU25 14

2. Trust in the European Union Europeans trust in the European Union was measured between autumn 1997 and spring 2016. After having been in the majority since autumn 2004 and the enlargement to 25 Member States, trust in the EU has fallen back below since the survey in spring. Having stabilised at its lowest level in spring and autumn and in spring, it recovered slightly in the autumn and spring surveys (when it reached, against 4 for tend not to trust ), while nevertheless remaining in the minority. Trust in the European Union fell again in the autumn survey (3 against 5) before stabilising at 3 in spring 2016 (against 5 for tend not to trust ). I would like to ask you a question about how much trust you have in certain institutions. For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The European Union Tend to trust Tend not to trust 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 EB48 1997 EB51 1999 EB55 2001 EB56 2001 3 3 2 4 4 60% 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 60% 4 4 3 1 EB57 2002 1 EB59 2003 1 EB60 2003 1 EB61 2004 1 EB62 2004 1 EB63 1 1 EB64 EB65 Constitution 1 EB66 1 EB67 Bolkestein Directive 1 1 1 1 1 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 3 3 5 5 3 3 4 EB68 1 EB69 10% EB77 EB78 EB79 Effects of the EB80 1 1 1 1 1 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 The Ukrainian Migration Treaty Euro 8th EP 6th EP 7th EP EU25 Lisbon Failure 5 3 Subprimes 5th EP 5 3 5 EU27 15 Election of the Juncker Commission Brexit

3. The image of the European Union and what it means to Europeans For a long time positive, the image of the European Union is fading over time. The image of the European Union among Europeans4 has changed since spring 2000. Positive opinions remained clearly in the majority until autumn, before starting to decline in spring. Since autumn, they have remained below 4 and have been surpassed several times by neutral opinions (people saying that they have a neutral image). This was the case in the latest surveys in autumn and spring 2016. While over the whole of the period under review (2000-2016), positive opinions have exceeded negative ones, the neutral image has been increasing slowly, and at 3 is the majority image in 2016. 4 In general, is your image of the EU very positive, quite positive, neutral, quite negative or very negative? 16

In general, does the EU conjure up for you a very positive, fairly positive, neutral, fairly negative or very negative image Total 'Positive' 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Neutral 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 EB53 2000 EB55 2001 EB57 2002 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EB58 2002 EB59 2003 EB60 2003 EB61 2004 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 4 4 4 3 5 4 Total 'Negative' 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77.4 Subprimes Failure 3 Constitution 3 EB78 1% EB79.5 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 The Ukrainian Effects of the Bolkestein Directive Lisbon Euro Treaty 6th EP 8èmes élections du 7th EP Election of the Juncker EU27 EU25 * Fieldwork Dates: 21/05-30/05 2016 17 Migration Brexit PE 1% EB85* 2016 Commission

What the European Union means: a trio of positive dimensions Throughout the survey period (from spring 2002 to spring 2016), freedom to travel, study and work anywhere in the EU was the principle which Europeans most commonly associated with the European Union. Next came the euro, with the exception of the survey conducted in, when it was briefly overtaken by peace. Peace occupied third place in most of the surveys analysed. The concepts most frequently associated with the EU are therefore positive. However, fourth and fifth position are occupied by negative concepts: bureaucracy and wasting money. These have been gradually increasing since 2002. 18

What does the EU mean to you personally? (Multiple responses possible) Freedom to travel, study and work anywhere in the EU 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 EB62 EB63 2004 3 3 3 3 2 EB64 EB65 EB67 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 EB69 Peace Bureaucracy Waste of money 4 4 3 3 EB57 2002 5 4 3 1 Euro 1 EB70 EB71 4 4 4 3 3 3 EB72 EB73 2 2 EB74 EB75 2 EB76 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 EB77 EB78 4 4 3 2 2 2 EB79.5 4 4 3 3 2 2 EB80 EB81 2 2 2 EB82 2 2 EB83 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 EB84 EB85 2016 Migration Constitution Effects of the Failure Euro Bolkestein 6th EP Subprimes The Ukrainian Directive Lisbon Treaty Brexit 8th EP 7th EP EU25 EU27 Élection Commission Juncker 19

4. Trust in the European institutions The European institutions have suffered a gradual erosion of trust, closely linked to the onset of the international economic crisis. Europeans trust in the European institutions fell significantly between autumn 20045 and spring 2016. Whilst people generally trusted most of the institutions, this pattern started to reverse starting in autumn (EB76). Broadly positive in autumn 2004 (5), there was a gradual reduction in the level of trust in the European Parliament until it fell behind, starting in autumn ( trusted the EP as opposed to 4 who tended not to in the autumn survey). It should be noted that the round of surveys conducted in autumn showed up a sharp decline in all the indicators. Trust in the EP briefly held the upper hand in the (4 as against 4) and spring (4 as against ) surveys. In the most recent survey (spring 2016), trust is again below not trust ( as against 4). 5 For each of the following European institutions, please state whether you trust them or not. 20

And please tell me if you tend to trust or tend not to trust these European institutions. - The European Parliament Tend to trust 5 2 1 EB61 2004 5 5 5 51% 5 5 EB62 2004 1 EB63 1 EB64 5 51% 4 3 3 3 1 EB65 2 1 5 1 EB66 1 EB67 2 1 EB68 Tend not to trust 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 EB82 EB83 EB84.1 September EB85 2016 4 4 4 1 EB81 3 2 EB69 1 EB70 1 EB71 1 EB72 1 EB73 1 EB74 1 EB75 1 EB76 1 EB77 EB78 1 EB79.5 EB80 Subprimes Constitution Failure Bolkestein Directive Effects of The Ukrainian the Migration Lisbon Treaty 7th EP 8th EP Brexit 6th EP EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission EU25 21

There was a similar trend for trust in the European Commission. The level of trust in this institution steadily fell until it lagged behind starting in autumn (4 for tend not to trust against 3 for tend to trust ). Since then, trust remained dominant until the spring 2016 survey (3 against 4), apart from the spring survey, when trust and mistrust were both at the same level (). And please tell me if you tend to trust or tend not to trust these European institutions. - The European Commission Tend to trust 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Tend not to trust 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 2 EB71 3 3 3 2 EB72 3 4 4 4 EB73 EB74 2 EB75 EB76 4 4 3 4 3 3 1 4 3 3 EB77 1 EB78 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 1 EB79.5 EB80 EB81 Subprimes Migration Constitution Failure Effects of Bolkestein the Directive The Ukrainian Lisbon Treaty 6th EP 7th EP 8th EP Brexit EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission EU25 22

Trust in the Council of the European Union also diminished and became the lesser-held view starting in autumn. However, people s trust showed an upturn after autumn, reaching 4 the last time this was recorded, in (the same figure as for mistrust). The proportion of no replies is high but has been steadily falling since autumn (1 in the survey). And please tell me if you tend to trust or tend not to trust these European institutions. - The Council of the European Union Tend to trust 4 2 2 4 4 2 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 Tend not to trust 4 4 2 3 2 2 2 4 2 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB72 Subprimes EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79.5 Effects of Constitution Failure EB73 the Bolkestein Directive Lisbon Treaty 7th EP 6th EP EU27 EU25 23

Trust in the European Central Bank has followed the same pattern. This is the institution with the highest level of mistrust, even rising above in (51%). In the latest measurement in spring 2016, mistrust was at 4 (against 3 for trust). And please tell me if you tend to trust or tend not to trust these European institutions. - The European Central Bank Tend to trust Tend not to trust 5 4 4 4 4 4 51% 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 Subprimes EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79.5 EB80 EB81 Bolkestein Failure Directive EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 Effects of the Constitution EB82 The Ukrainian Migration Brexit 6th EP Lisbon Treaty 7th EP 8th EP EU25 EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission 24

The Court of Justice of the European Union stands out from the other institutions: trust has remained comfortably ahead throughout the period in question (from autumn 2004 to ). However, mistrust surged ahead starting in spring, reaching 3 in spring. It has since fallen back slightly since then, but is still over. And please tell me if you tend to trust or tend not to trust these European institutions. - The Court of Justice of the European Union - Tend to trust Tend not to trust 5 5 5 5 5 51% 4 2 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 2 EB63 2 2 EB64 4 2 2 2 EB65 3 1 2 EB66 2 EB68 EB73 Subprimes 4 3 3 1 EB77 EB78 EB79.5 Effects of the Constitution Bolkestein Failure Directive Lisbon Treaty 6th EP 7th EP EU27 EU25 25

5. Knowledge of how the European institutions work A majority of Europeans seem to know about some of the main workings of the EU. When asked a true/false quiz question6 on their knowledge of how the European institutions work, Europeans answered quite well, with most choosing the correct answer to the questions posed. Knowledge of the principle of the election of Members of the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage in every Member State has been dominant since autumn 2002. It has shown an increase at every European election. The rise was particularly marked before the most recent, in May (71%, an increase of 17 percentage points), after which there was a fall to 5 at the time of the last survey, in spring 2016. 6 For each of the following statements about the EU, please state if you think they are true or false. 26

For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - The members of the European Parliament are directly elected by the citizens of each Member State True (correct answer) False (wrong answer) 71% 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 1 1 5 5 2 2 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 5 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 EB82.4 December EB83 1 1 1 1 1 1 EB58 2002 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. EB73 EB74 EB75 Subprimes EB76 EB77.4 EB78 EB79.5 EB80 EB81 EB84.1 Septembre EB85 2016 Effects of the Constitution Failure The Ukrainian Bolkestein Directive Migration Lisbon Treaty Brexit 6th EP 8th EP 7th EP Election of the Juncker EU25 EU27 27 Commission

The majority of Europeans know that the Member States do not all have the same number of MEPs. After rising between the January and January surveys (an increase of 8 points, from 4 to 5), Europeans level of knowledge about the number of MEPs from each Member State has continued to rise steadily. For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - Each Member State has the same number of Members of the European Parliament True (wrong answer) 5 5 False (correct answer) 5 5 5 5 2 2 4 3 2 2 1 EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. EB73.1 Jan. - Feb. EB76 EB77.4 EB79.5 EB82.4 December 1 EB84.1 September The Ukrainian Effects of the Migration 7th EP 8th EP Election of the Juncker Commission 28

In terms of the principle of joint agreement between the European Parliament and the Member States regarding determining the budget of the EU, here again there is a prevalence of correct responses throughout the period in which the question was asked, although there was no increase. For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - The EU s budget is determined jointly by the European Parliament and the Member States True (correct answer) 60% False (wrong answer) 61% 5 5 5 2 5 5 3 2 1 10% EB68 1 1 1 1 1 EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. EB76 EB77.4 EB79.5 Effects of the EB82.4 December The Ukrainian Lisbon Treaty 7th EP 8th EP Election of the Juncker Commission 29 EB84.1 September Migration

Broadly speaking, a majority of people are aware of the principle of agreement between the European Parliament and the Member States on European directives and regulations: this awareness crept up from January to autumn (5), and has remained at around 60% since. For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - At the EU level, European laws (directives and regulations) have to be agreed jointly by the European Parliament and the Member States - True (correct answer) 5 False (wrong answer) 6 61% 60% 60% 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. EB76 1 1 1 EB77.4 EB79.5 EB82.4 December EB84.1 September Effects of the The Ukrainian 7th EP 8th EP Election of the Juncker Commission 30 Migration

6. Trust in national institutions A large majority of Europeans do not trust their national government, and trust fell overall between 2004 and 2016. After reaching its lowest level in autumn (2), trust in the national government was 2 in the spring 2016 survey (against 6 for tend not to trust ). For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The (NATIONALITY) Government Tend to trust 61% 3 6 3 6 5 2 2 6 70% 71% 7 6 6 2 2 2 6 6 6 2 2 6 6 3 2 2 2016 3 Jan.-Feb. 3 6 6 3 6 3 6 5 Nov.-Dec. 3 61% 6 5 6 5 2004 6 2004 60% Tend not to trust EB61 EB62 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB66.3 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71.1 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 Subprimes Effects of the Migration Constitution The Ukrainian Failure Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive 7th EP 8th EP 6th EP Brexit Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 EU25 31

Similarly, only a minority of Europeans trust their national parliament. This trust in the national parliament follows the same trends as trust in the national government: it fell overall between 2004 and 2016, reaching its lowest level in autumn. In the latest survey in spring 2016, it was at (against 6 for mistrust). In each of the surveys analysed, trust in the national parliament very slightly exceeded (or was equal to) trust in the national government. However, trust in national institutions is lower than trust in the European Union, even though the gap has tended to reduce since the start of the economic crisis. For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The (NATIONALITY) Parliament Tend to trust 5 3 5 5 3 3 5 3 5 3 5 61% 3 5 5 5 3 3 3 Tend not to trust 5 3 4 61% 6 6 6 60% 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 Nov.-Dec. Jan.-Feb. 2016 2004 2004 EB61 EB62 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB66.3 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71.1 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 Subprimes The Ukrainian Effects of the Migration Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive Brexit 7th EP 8th EP 6th EP Election of the Juncker Constitution Failure EU27 Commission EU25 32

THE MAIN FINDINGS In 2002, one European in five believed that their voice counted in the EU. In 2016, it was nearly two in five. Over the same period, the proportion of those believing that their voice did not count fell from almost seven in ten in 2002 to fewer than six in ten in 2016. In most of the surveys analysed, the majority of European citizens believe that their voice counts in their country, a percentage that has considerably increased since. A little more than six out of ten Europeans believe that their country s voice counts in the EU, but the number of people who think the opposite has increased since 2002. The share of people feeling they are European citizens remained stable at above, without being affected by the European Union s own issues and fluctuations in the economic and political climate. There were no significant changes in this indicator between 1992 and 2016. National identity was at its highest levels in the mid-1990s, on the eve of the introduction of the euro, and again in spring in the midst of the debt crisis engulfing several Member States. Feelings of European citizenship increased following the adoption of the euro and even in the midst of the economic crisis, in particular in, and in 2016 when it stabilised above. Feelings of belonging to the European Union split public opinion in two over the period under review: It increased during the slightly contentious debate on the ratification of the Constitutional Treaty, which appeared to have had the effect of making the European Union a more tangible reality in the eyes of Europeans. The enlargement also had a positive effect on this feeling. It then dropped off, as a result of the financial and debt crisis in the Member States, which also affected all the other indicators, before bouncing back and exceeding in. Nevertheless, a clear majority of Europeans share the feeling that what unites them in the EU is more important than what divides them. They also identify as forcefully as ever, in spite of the crisis, several European Union identity markers, and in particular democratic values, which prove to be the principal elements constituting European identity. The feeling of European citizenship remains strong in spite of the turmoil experienced by the European Union in recent years. Time will tell whether Brexit will have an impact on these opinions. It is not possible to judge from the minor changes detected in the September 2016 Parlemeter survey and we will have to wait for future surveys to see if Brexit will have a significant impact on European public opinion in relation to these questions. 33

II. 1. DEMOCRACY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION The voice of European citizens Europeans have less and less of a conviction that their voice counts in their own country Tested between spring and September 2016, more than half of Europeans believed that their voice counted in their own country7, with two exceptions: autumn (4 do not agree, against 4 agree ) and autumn ( against 4), when a small majority of Europeans believed that their voice counted in their own countries. After reaching a record level of 6 in September, there has subsequently been a strong decline in this feeling, to 5 in September 2016. Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. - My voice counts in (OUR COUNTRY) Tend to agree Tend to disagree 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 51% 5 4 4 5 51% 4 4 4 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB73 EB74 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 3 EB76.4 December EB77.4 EB78 EB79.5 EB80 EB81 EB82.4 December 4 3 EB83 4 3 EB84.1 EB85.1 EB86.1 September April 2016 Sept.-Oct. 2016 Effects of the The Ukrainian Migration 7th EP 8th EP Brexit Election of the Juncker Commission To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? My voice counts in (OUR COUNTRY) 7 34

The majority of Europeans believe that their voice does not count in the EU. Fewer than half of Europeans consulted between the beginning of 2002 and September 2016 believed that their voice counted in the European Union8; at no point in the period did this proportion exceed. As a trend, this feeling has gained traction since 2002, rising from in January 2002 to 3 in September 2016. This conviction spiked in the Standard Eurobarometer surveys taken in the wake of European : in October 20049 (+9 points, to 3), in (+8, to 3), and in May (+13 to 4). To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - My voice counts in the EU Survey EB61 in spring 2004 was conducted prior to the European of 2004. Surveys EB71 in spring and EB81 in spring were carried out immediately after the European. 8 9 35

Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. - My voice counts in the EU Tend to agree Tend to disagree 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 61% 61% 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 3 5 4 3 2 2 1 EB56.3 Jan.-Feb. 2002 10% EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB63 10% EB64 EB65 10% EB66 EB67 1 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71 10% EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77.4 EB78 EB79.5 EB80 EB81 EB82.4 December EB83 EB84.1 Sept. EB85.1 April 2016 EB86.1 Sept.-Oct. 2016 Effects of Subprimes the The Ukrainian Migration Lisbon Treaty Euro Bolkestein Brexit Directive 6th EP 8th EP 7th EP Constitution Failure EU25 EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission 36

More than six out of ten Europeans believe that their country s voice counts in the EU. The feeling held by Europeans that their country s voice counts in the European Union10 was clearly in the majority over the period from the start of 2002 to September ; there were some minor fluctuations but it was always at or above 60%. However, the proportion of people who do not agree with this opinion is trending upwards, from in January 2002 to 3 in September. Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - (OUR COUNTRY) s voice counts in the EU Tend to agree 6 6 6 1 EB56.3 Jan.-Feb. 2002 EB61 2004 6 61% 2 Tend to disagree 2 EB62 2004 EB67 EB68 61% 2 10% EB69 60% 61% 6 2 EB70 EB71 EB73 Subprimes EB77.4 6 61% 3 3 EB79.5 EB84.1 September Effects of Bolkestein Migration the Directive Euro 6 Lisbon 6th EP Treaty 7th EP 8th EP The Ukrainian EU25 EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission Constitution Failure To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - (OUR COUNTRY S) voice counts in the EU 10 37

2. A feeling of European citizenship which survives the crisis In most of the surveys analysed, the majority of Europeans say that they see themselves as national and European (in proportions of between and 5). In the last three measurements (spring, autumn and spring 2016), this proportion exceeded, whereas it was below between spring 1992 and spring. A significant proportion of people see themselves solely as national, a view held by the majority between autumn 1996 and spring 1998, in autumn 1999 and in spring. 38

Do you see yourself as...? (NATIONALITY) only (NATIONALITY) and European European and (NATIONALITY) European only 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 51% 4 3 51% 4 3 3 3 3 10% EB37 1992 EB40 1993 EB42 1994 EB43 1995 EB46 1996 EB47 1997 EB49 1998 EB50 1998 EB52 1999 EB53 2000 EB54 2000 EB56 2001 EB57 2002 EB58 2002 EB59 2003 EB60 2003 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB64 EB67.1 February EB73 EB76.4 Decembre EB77.4 EB78.2 Nov.-Dec. EB79.5 EB80 EB83 1% 1% EB84 EB85 2016 Constitution Failure Effects of the Maastricht Treaty Stability and 5th EP Lisbon Euro Treaty 8th EP 6th EP Mad Cow EP The Ukrainian 7th EP Directive Growth Pact 4th Migration Bolkestein Disease Subprimes Election of the Juncker EU15 Commission EU25 39 EU27 Brexit

3. An enduring attachment to the European Union The attachment of Europeans to their country at around 90% remains very strong and stable over time (around 90% between January 2002 and September ). People may feel different levels of attachment to their village, town or city,to their region, to their country or to the European Union. Please tell me how attached you feel to - (OUR COUNTRY) Total 'Attached' Total 'Not attached' 8 8 90% 91% 91% 9 91% 91% 91% 91% 90% 10% 10% 10% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EB56.3 Jan.-Feb. 2002 EB58 2002 EB65 EB67 EB77 EB79.5 EB80 EB82 EB84.1 September 1% 0% EB68 EB73.3 March The Ukrainian Effects of the Subprimes Migration Bolkestein Lisbon Directive Euro Treaty 8th EP Constitution 7th EP Failure EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission 40

Europeans are clearly more divided when it comes to their attachment to the European Union: after being in the majority between spring and March, it once again dipped below between spring and autumn. This attachment then bounced back, returning to being a majority opinion in September. Please tell me how attached you feel to - The European Union Total 'Attached' 5 5 5 4 4 4 Total 'Not attached' 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 51% 4 EB56.3 Jan.-Feb. 2002 EB58 2002 EB65 EB67 EB68 EB73.3 March EB77 EB79.5 EB80 EB82 EB84.1 September Constitution Effects of Subprimes Euro The Ukrainian the Failure Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive 6th EP 7th EP 8th EP EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission EU25 41 Migration

4. The components of an EU identity The euro: a less important element for European citizens. The values of democracy and freedom were identified by respondents as the main element underpinning the EU s identity in their eyes11 ( in the September 2016 survey). The euro came in second place (3 in September 2016), although it has markedly declined in importance in the last two years. This was followed by culture (3) and history (). Other considerations are cited by fewer than a quarter of Europeans. The European identity can be composed of several elements. In your opinion, which of the following are the most important elements that go to make up the European identity? (MAX. 3 RESPONSES) - % UE Democratic values The single currency, the euro Culture History Geography The successes of the European economy The EU motto "Unity in diversity" The European flag The European anthem 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 10% Nov.-Dec. Sept. Sept.-Oct. 2016 EB70 EB77.4 EB79.5 EB82.4 EB84.1 EB86.1 Brexit The Ukrainian Effects of the Migration 8th EP 7th EP Election of the Juncker Commission European identity can be composed of several elements. In your opinion, which of the following are the most important elements that go to make up the European identity? (MAXIMUM 3 POSSIBLE RESPONSES) 11 42

More than seven out of ten Europeans agree with the following statement regarding the building of Europe: what unites the citizens of the various countries is more important than what divides them. This was the case each time this question was asked, on six occasions between autumn and September 2016. Can you tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the building of Europe? - What brings the citizens of the different countries together is more important than what separates them Total 'Agree' Total 'Disagree' 7 7 1 7 7 7 EB84.1 September EB85.1 April 2016 EB86.1 Sept.-Oct. 2016 71% 2 1 1 EB70 EB72 EB79.5 Effects of the The Ukrainian Migration Brexit 8th EP 7th EP Election of the Juncker Commission 43

III. THE ECONOMY IN THE EU THE MAIN FINDINGS The economic crisis has had a major impact on how Europeans perceive the economic situation in their countries and in the EU. Both are currently perceived as bad, although this perception has improved in recent surveys. While prior to the crisis Europeans perceived their national economies to be in worse shape than the EU economy, this has been reversed due to the debt crisis. The EU therefore no longer seems to be a reassuring point of reference in the crisis. In terms of short-term expectations, the optimism (respondents thinking that the next 12 months would be better) and pessimism ( worse ) curves have frequently crossed over from one survey to the next since the one carried out in spring. In the last two surveys however, in autumn and spring 2016, pessimism was ahead for the various aspects that were examined (national and European economic situation, national employment situation). Over the whole period under review, the predominant sentiment was that things would not change. 44

1. The European economic situation and that of the national economy Judgments about the European economy and about the national economy veered wildly towards negative in, after the onset of the economic crisis. The judgments of Europeans about the economic situation of the European Union12, which were positive and on an upward trend from November 2004 until autumn became negative from autumn. They reached their lowest level in autumn (1), right in the midst of the debt crisis. Since then, they have grown almost continuously, reaching 3 in autumn 2016, before falling back again in the latest survey in spring 2016 (3). Over the same period, negative judgments have fallen from 7 in autumn to 5 in spring 2016. How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? Situation in (OUR COUNTRY S) economy/situation in the European economy/employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY). 12 45

How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? - The situation of the European economy Total 'Good' Total 'Bad' 7 5 4 3 3 EB62.1 Nov. 2004 1 EB63 7 6 7 6 61% 1 EB65 3 2 1 1 EB66 EB68 5 5 5 1 6 5 5 7 70% 6 2 2 EB70 EB71 EB72 10% EB73 EB74 1 1 1 EB76 EB77 EB75 EB78 3 3 1 1 1 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 3 1 5 51% EB79 EB80 EB81 Effects of Lisbon Constitution the The Ukrainian Treaty Bolkestein Directive Migration Failure Subprimes Brexit 7th EP 8th EP EU27 Election of the Juncker Commission 46

The judgments of Europeans about the situation of the economy in their country follow the same trend: increase from 2004 to, then rapid deterioration in. The main difference in the perception of the European economy was that the judgments were negative in 2004 and remained negative throughout the period under review, with the exception of spring (5 of the total good against 4 bad ). Since, these judgments have gradually improved, rising from in spring to 3 in spring 2016. How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? - The situation of the (NATIONALITY) economy Total 'Good' 7 7 7 70% 6 6 Total 'Bad' 6 71% 71% 7 7 6 6 61% 6 5 5 3 4 4 2 EB62.1 November 2004 2 2 1% EB63 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 5 5 3 4 4 3 3 5 EB75 2 2 2 1% 1% 1% EB79 EB80 EB76 EB77.4 EB78 Subprimes Effects of 3 3 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 The Ukrainian Migration the Constitution Failure Lisbon Treaty Brexit 8th EP Bolkestein 7th EP Directive Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 47

The assessment of the employment situation at national level has seen a similar change over the period, with negative judgments a clear majority, an improvement in and a significant deterioration in autumn and spring. Since then, judgments have improved slightly, whilst still remaining broadly negative (6 negative judgements in spring 2016). How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? - The employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) Total 'Good' 8 7 7 Total 'Bad' 8 7 7 7 7 7 70% 7 80% 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1% 1% EB79 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 1 1% EB62.1 Nov. 2004 EB63 EB65 EB66 EB68 EB70 EB71 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77.4 EB78 Effects of the The Ukrainian Lisbon Migration Treaty Constitution Failure Subprimes Brexit 8th EP 7th EP Bolkestein Directive Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 48

2. Economic projections Economic projections as a whole are fairly gloomy and unchanged for almost half of European citizens. Projections about the national economic situation for the coming 12 months13 are dominated by pessimism, which wins out over optimism across virtually the whole of the period analysed (from autumn 2004 to autumn ). Since spring, the optimism and pessimism curves have regularly crossed, but in the latest two surveys in autumn and spring 2016 pessimism is slightly ahead: in spring 2016, 2 of Europeans thought that the next 12 months would be worse against better. Nevertheless, it is the response no change which takes a clear lead. What are your expectations for the year to come: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same when it comes to...? The economic situation in (OUR COUNTRY)/the economic situation in the EU/the employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY). 13 49

What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...? - The economic situation in (OUR COUNTRY) - Better Worse Same 51% 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 4 4 3 3 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 4 2 4 4 3 3 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 1 EB76 EB77.4 EB78 EB79.5 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 Effects of The Ukrainian the Migration Constitution Failure Lisbon Subprimes Treaty Brexit 8th EP 7th EP Bolkestein Directive Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 50

The projections for employment at national level have also, for the most part, remained pessimistic across a large part of the period under review (the spring, autumn and spring surveys being the only exceptions). What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...? - The employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) - Better Worse Same 5 4 4 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 4 4 2 2 4 1 1 EB78 EB79.5 EB80 2 2 2 4 2 1 EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77.4 Subprimes Constitution EB78.1 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 Effects of The Ukrainian the Migration Lisbon Failure Treaty Brexit 8th EP Bolkestein 7th EP Directive Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 51

In the case of the projections for the European economy, the pessimists mostly prevail over the optimists. However, across the whole of the period (from autumn to spring 2016), the response no change is in the majority in most of the surveys analysed. What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...? - The economic situation in the EU - Better Worse 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 10% EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 EB74 3 3 1 EB75 EB76 1 1 EB77 EB78 1 EB68 4 3 2 1 1 EB66 2 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 Same EB79.5 1 EB80 EB81 1 1 1 1 1 1 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 Effects of the The Ukrainian Migration Lisbon Brexit Treaty Subprimes 7th EP 8th EP Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 52

IV. THE LIVES OF EUROPEANS THE MAIN FINDINGS Europeans expectations concerning their personal lives are dominated by the feeling that things will remain the same over the year to come. More respondents viewed the future positively than negatively in most of the surveys reviewed. The crisis had a clear impact on their expectations. In their replies concerning life in general, fewer respondents were optimistic and more became pessimistic: this trend began in autumn and took off again in autumn. However, positive expectations among the European public increased from autumn, before stabilising from spring. In general, the same is true for the career prospects of respondents to surveys between 1998 and 2016. Positive expectations have been relatively stable since spring, at around. The area worst affected by the events of recent years has been the financial situation of households, with pessimism concerning the coming months being greater than optimism as early as spring, and markedly so from autumn. It was not until spring that optimism overtook pessimism again. 53

Personal outlooks have been consistent over time Throughout the period from autumn 1995 to spring 2016, a clear majority of Europeans felt their life in general was going to remain the same over the next 12 months (with percentages ranging from 4 to 5 over the period as a whole)14. Optimism has always won out over pessimism, although the gap between the two shrank significantly with the start of the economic crisis (from a 27-point gap in the autumn 2000 survey to a 1-point gap in the autumn survey). However, from autumn the gap between optimists and pessimists widened again slightly, before stabilising since spring, to reach 17 points in the latest survey in spring 2016. What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will it be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...? - Your life in general Better 51% 51% 3 3 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 3 51% 51% 3 3 3 3 51% 3 Worse 4 51% 51% 3 3 3 Same 5 4 4 1 EB44 1995 EB46 1996 1 10% EB48 1997 EB50 1998 EB52 1999 EB54 2000 EB56 2001 1 1 EB58 2002 EB60 2003 1 EB61 2004 EB62 2004 EB63 1 5 2 2 5 5 5 2 2 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 3 3 1 5 51% 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB 71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 1 1 1 2 1 10% EB79.5 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 Subprimes Effects of The Ukrainian Migration the Stability and Growth Pact Lisbon Treaty Brexit Bolkestein Directive Mad Cow Disease 5th EP 8th EP 6th EP Euro 7th EP Constitution Failure Election of the Juncker Commission EU25 EU27 What are your expectations for the year to come: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same when it comes to...? Your life in general / The financial situation of your household / Your personal job situation 14 54

The findings are quite similar, but even more consistent, when Europeans are asked more specifically about their career prospects : an absolute majority of Europeans, varying very little between 1998 and 2016, think that things will stay the same in the coming year. Over the whole of the period under review, the proportion of Europeans who think that their personal job situation will improve is consistently higher than the proportion expecting it to deteriorate. That gap decreases with the start of the crisis, but not as much as for life in general. What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will it be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...? - Your personal job situation Better 6 2 EB50 1998 Same 61% 61% 6 61% 60% 60% 60% 61% 60% 61% 60% 60% 61% 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Worse EB52 1999 EB54 2000 EB56 2001 10% EB58 2002 EB60 2003 10% EB61 2004 10% 61% 10% EB62 2004 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB661 EB67 EB68 EB69 5 5 5 60% 60% 60% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EB70 1 10% 10% EB72 EB73 EB74 EB71 1 EB75 5 60% 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EB76 EB 77 EB78 EB79.5 61% 1 1 60% 60% 1 1 60% 60% 2 2 10% 10% 61% EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 Subprimes The Ukrainian Effects of the Lisbon Failure 8th Bolkestein Euro EP Directive 5th EP 6th EP 7th EP Election of the Juncker Commission EU25 Brexit Treaty Constitution Migration EU27 55

The same general trends emerge when Europeans are asked how they expect the financial situation of their household to change: a majority expect their situation to remain the same in the coming year (between and 6 over the period from 1998 to 2016 as a whole). What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will it be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...? - The financial situation of your household Better 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 5 2 1 1 5 5 2 2 10% EB50 1998 EB52 1999 EB54 2000 EB56 2001 EB58 2002 EB60 2003 EB61 2004 5 EB62 2004 5 5 5 2 2 5 5 2 Worse 5 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB67 EB68 EB69 1 1 Same 5 5 5 5 60% 5 5 5 2 5 2 1 1 1 1 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 1 5 5 1 1 1 6 61% 2 1 1 6 6 6 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79.5 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 1 Subprimes Effects of the The Ukrainian Migration Lisbon Treaty Brexit Bolkestein Directive 8th EP 5th EP Euro 7th EP 6th EP Constitution Failure Election of the Juncker Commission EU25 EU27 56

V. IMMIGRATION THE MAIN FINDINGS Since, an immigration policy implemented in consultation with countries of origin has become a major political priority in the hierarchy of priority policies which Europeans want to see defended by the EP. Immigration is a subject which divides Europeans: a majority of them do not agree that immigrants contribute a lot to their countries. This has been the majority opinion again since spring. Almost six out of ten Europeans view immigration of people from other EU Member States positively, while a little over a third view it negatively. European public opinion is markedly more critical of immigration of people from outside the EU: only just over a third view it positively, compared with six out of ten who say they have a negative view of it. In five Member States a majority of the population have a negative view of immigration, whether from within or outside the EU: Cyprus, Latvia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Italy. 57

European citizens now rank an immigration policy implemented in consultation with countries of origin third among the policies which should be a priority for the European Parliament. Following a period from January to when this aspect was secondary among Europeans responses, cited by around of Europeans, it began to increase markedly from December, to reach 3 in the September survey (coming in second place). In the latest survey in September 2016, an immigration policy implemented in consultation with countries of origin lost ground a little, falling back into third place among the priorities with a score of 3. This hierarchy of policies remains largely dominated by the fight against poverty and social exclusion (cited by between 4 and 5 of respondents since August-September ). Over the whole period, another aspect has made very significant gains: combatting terrorism while respecting individual freedom rose from 2 in November to 4 in the latest survey in September 2016 (second place). In that last survey, a security and defence policy that enables the EU to face up to international crises (), improving consumer and public health protection (2) and coordinating economic, budgetary and taxation policies (2) ranked fourth, fifth and sixth respectively. 58

The European Parliament promotes the development of certain policies at EU level. In your opinion which of the following policies should be given priority? Firstly? And then? (MAX. 4 RESPONSES) - % EU Tackling poverty and social exclusion Coordinating economic, budget and tax policies Improving consumer and public health protection Combating terrorism while respecting individual freedoms A security and defence policy that enables the EU to face up to international crises An immigration policy implemented in consultation with countries of origin 5 5 5 51% 4 51% 51% 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 Jan.-Feb. Aug.-Sept. April-May November Nov.-Dec. December EB73.1 EB74.1 EB75.2 EB76.3 EB77.4 EB78.2 EB79.5 EB82.4 September Sept.-Oct. 2016 EB84.1 EB86.1 The Ukrainian Effects of Migration the 8th EP Brexit Election of the Juncker Commission 59

For a majority of Europeans, immigration of people from other EU Member States evokes something positive (5, against 3 for whom it evokes something negative). This sentiment increased between autumn and spring 2016, from 5 to 5. Please tell me whether each of the following statements evokes a positive or negative feeling for you. - Immigration of people from other EU Member States Total 'Positive' 5 51% Total 'Negative' 5 3 5 3 EB82 EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 The Ukrainian Effects of the Migration 60 Brexit

The proportion of Europeans for whom immigration of people from non-eu countries evokes something negative is predominant, and remained relatively stable over the period under review, from autumn to spring 2016, ranging from 5 to 5. Over the same period, the proportion of people for whom immigration from non-eu countries evokes something positive has remained slightly above one-third (ranging from 3 to 3). Please tell me whether each of the following statements evokes a positive or negative feeling for you. - Immigration of people from outside the EU Total 'Positive' 5 5 3 3 10% EB82 EB83 The Ukrainian Effects of the Total 'Negative' Migration 61 5 5 3 3 EB84 EB85 2016 Brexit

In the latest survey, the immigration of people from other EU Member States elicited positive feelings in a large majority of Member States (23). By contrast, negative feelings were in the majority in Cyprus, Latvia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Italy. EB85 2016 62

Immigration of people from outside the EU was viewed positively in only four countries in the spring 2016 survey: in Sweden, quite comfortably, but also in Luxembourg, Ireland and Spain. In all other Member States, immigration of people from non-eu countries evoked a negative feeling among a majority of the population. EB85 2016 63

Europeans are divided as to the contribution of immigration in their country: in the latest survey in spring 2016, more than five out of ten respondents did not agree with the proposition that immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY), whereas four out of ten () did agree. These were exactly the same proportions as in the autumn survey, when the question was asked for the first time. After becoming the majority opinion between the spring and spring surveys, the opinion that immigrants contribute a lot to a country has become the minority opinion again since the autumn survey. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each if the following statements? - Immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY) - Total 'Agree' Total 'Disagree' 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 EB77 EB81.2 Mars 5 10% EB83 EB84 EB85 2016 4 4 EB66 EB69 Subprimes Effects of the Migration Lisbon Treaty Brexit 7th EP The Ukrainian 8th EP Election of the Juncker Commission EU27 64

CONCLUSION The main findings to emerge from this review were as follows: 1/ A number of trends can be detected from an assessment of the changes in European public opinion over the period of more than forty years from 1973 to 2016: - Since 1973, the feeling that membership of the EU is a good thing has been shared by a clear majority of Europeans. - Moreover, since 1983 and reaching a peak in and 2016, a majority of respondents have felt their country has benefited from membership of the EU. - Despite some fluctuations, economic circumstances and political changes have had little impact on the feeling of attachment to the European Union. 2/ However, the major institutional and political developments affecting the EU, and in particular successive enlargements and the eight European held since 1979, have frequently brought about changes in opinion: - Enlargements have often proved to be occasions on which views on the EU have improved after an initial hardening of opinion. This is particularly true in the case of feelings about membership of the EU, as well as confidence in the EU and the image of the EU. - In the case of European, this swing is less clear. However, in the aftermath of European, one sees an increase in the feeling among European citizens that [their] voice counts in the EU. There was a particularly sharp increase in that feeling after the in May. - While the September 2016 Parlemeter survey shows no dramatic changes in support for the European Union, the next surveys will need to be analysed to take into account the impact Brexit may have on European opinion. 3/ Throughout the period under review, economic circumstances have had a determining effect on swings in European public opinion. Economic crises have triggered a serious worsening of opinions about the European Union, especially when those crises are likely to impact directly on the lives of European citizens. This is especially true of the economic crisis, which produced significant changes in the indicators reflecting support for the European Union: - There was a significant deterioration of the EU s image between autumn and autumn, when the economic crisis became a Member State public debt crisis; from autumn, the number of respondents having a positive image of the EU was gaining ground until spring, before falling back again slightly until spring 2016. - Trust in the European Union and its institutions deteriorated from spring : trust in the EU reached a low point in spring, spring, autumn and spring. After recovering in autumn, it fell back again from autumn. 65

- The crisis also had an adverse impact on the feeling among European citizens that their voices were not taken into account in the European Union. - Unsurprisingly, the assessment indicators for the economic situation have also deteriorated, sometimes dramatically, since the start of the crisis. Since autumn, the economic situation in Europe has been judged increasingly bad by Europeans, and this reached a low point in autumn. Since then, however, the number of respondents viewing the economic situation positively has risen more or less continuously. - There has also been an impact on outlook indicators: between and, the proportion of Europeans feeling that the national and European economic situations would improve over the next 12 months fell, before recovering again from and then losing ground again slightly in autumn and spring 2016: in these two surveys, negative projections outweigh positive ones. - The changeover to the euro does not seem to have had a major impact on European public opinion: all that happened was national sentiments peaked very slightly immediately before the launch of the single currency (in 2002). The euro remains a key factor in European identity and an important symbol of what the EU means to Europeans. - Even though some indicators show support for the EU to have hardened during the crisis, a clear majority of Europeans still feel that there is more that unites the citizens of the Member States than divides them: This has been the case on all six occasions that this question has been asked between and 2016. 4/ Europeans expectations concerning their personal lives are dominated by the feeling that things will remain unchanged in the year to come. More respondents viewed the future positively than negatively in most of the surveys analysed. This was true both for the outlook concerning people s lives in general and for their job situation. - The area worst affected by the events of recent years has been the financial situation of households, with pessimism for the coming months being greater than optimism as early as spring, and markedly so from autumn. It was not until spring that optimism overtook pessimism again. 5/ Europeans are divided over immigration, which became one of their main concerns in and 2016: in spring 2016, a third of Europeans thought it should be a European Parliament priority. In addition, Europeans make an important distinction between immigration from other EU countries and immigration from non-eu countries. - For almost six out of ten Europeans, immigration of people from other EU countries evokes a positive feeling, while a little over a third of them have the opposite opinion. In five countries, immigration from other EU countries evokes something negative. - In contrast, immigration of people from non-eu countries evokes a negative feeling for a clear majority of Europeans and is an opinion shared in 24 Member States. - Europeans are split when it comes to the proposition that immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY). After being the majority opinion between spring and spring, this became the minority opinion again in the latest two surveys in autumn and spring 2016. 66

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This exploratory study on major changes in European public opinion (updated in November 2016) was carried out on the basis of the Eurobarometer surveys carried out between 1973 and 2016. The following aspects were studied: changes in European public opinion regarding the European Union and its institutions; democracy in the European Union; the economy of the European Union; the lives of Europeans; immigration. Published by the Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, Directorate-General for Communication, European Parliament PE 596.847 ISBN: 978-92-846-0403-6 DOI: 10.2861/914504 QA-07-16-107-EN-N The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions which may be expressed herein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. European Union, 2016 68