State of the Female Electorate January 16-19, 2018 N = 1,200 respondents (1/3 Landline, 1/3 Cell, 1/3 Internet) margin of error: +/- 2.83% 1
With soaring stock markets, plummeting unemployment rates, and passage of tax reform, President Trump s approval rating among women is heading in the right direction. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Among Women -30 +8-22 62% 59% 32% 37% Nov 30 - Dec 3 Jan 16-19 2018 Approve Disapprove 2
Roughly half (48%) of all women support the job President Trump is doing, and over 9-in-10 Republican women approve, or like some of the actions he is taking as President (91%). Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? IF NOT APPROVE, ASK: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I may not approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President, I do like some of the actions he is taking? 37% Total Approve Among Women 48% 6% 17% 20% Trump Supporter Approver Supporter Republican Women (14%) 84% 91% Democrat Women (22%) 9% 20% Independent Women (13%) 35% 50% Women 18-44 (21%) 21% 36% Women 45-64 (21%) 49% 57% Women 65+ (13%) 44% 53% 3
On the Issues: Over the past two months, the President s handling of specific issues has lead to growing approval numbers among female voters. Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job President Donald Trump has done on each of the following Among Women Handling of the Economy Handling of ISIS and Terrorism -9 +11 +2-12 +5-7 49% 44% 51% 46% 40% 42% 39% 39% Nov 30-Dec 3 Jan 16-19 2018 Nov 30-Dec 3 Jan 16-19 2018 Handling of National Security and the Border Handling of Trade Deals -23 +5-18 -16 +6-10 57% 55% 51% 47% 34% 37% Nov 30-Dec 3 Jan 16-19 2018 35% 37% Nov 30-Dec 3 Jan 16-19 2018 4
Optimism among the Female Voters 5
Optimism in America: Women s perception that America is better off today than a year ago has grown a net 7-points in the past two months. As you know, it was about a year ago that Donald Trump won the Presidential election. Over the past year, when you think about our country in general would you say that our country is. Among Women -24 Even -24 +7-17 51% 51% 27% 48% 31% 27% Nov 6-8 Nov 30 - Dec 3 Jan 16-19 2018 Better off than it was a year ago Worse off than it was a year ago 6
Economic Optimism: Currently, 4-in-10 women believe America is in the process of becoming great again, closing the economic optimism gap to 1-point. When you think about jobs, the economy, trade deals and the stock market, regardless of personality or partisanship, do you think America is in the process of becoming great again? Among Women -7-1 +6 44% 41% 37% 40% Nov 30 - Dec 3 Yes No Jan 16-19 2018 7
Tax Reform s Growing Support: Since November, women s support for tax reform has grown a net 11-points. Do you support or oppose the tax reform plan that was passed by President Trump and Republicans in Congress? Among Women -25 +3-22 +8-14 52% 54% 48% 27% 32% 34% Nov 6-8 Nov 30 - Dec 3 Jan 16-19 2018 Support Oppose 8
Optimism by Issue: In thinking about the past year, women believe that unemployment has dropped, the economy has improved, and illegal immigration has declined. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements Among Women Over the past year, unemployment rates in America have declined. Over the past year, the economy of the U.S. has improved. Over the past year, undocumented illegal immigration into the U.S. has declined. Over the past year, manufacturing jobs have been brought back to the U.S. Over the past year, the U.S. has been winning the war against ISIS and terrorism. Over the past year, trade agreements have been renegotiated in a way that benefits American workers and businesses. Over the past year, lobbyists and the DC elite have begun to lose their influence. Agree 26% Strong 25% 26% Strong 34% 19% Strong 27% 18% Strong 21% Strong 16% Strong 20% Strong 17% Strong 23% Strong 14% Strong 25% Strong Disagree 45% 39% 40% 38% 43% 36% 42% 35% 40% 59% 53% -1-5 -6-5 +34 +19 +18 9
Issue Importance among Women 10
In the coming year, women would like to see Congress lower the cost of healthcare by working to fix the current problems with ObamaCare. Which of the following do you see as the most important issue for Congress and the President to address in the coming year: Among Women Lowering the cost of healthcare Improving education 35% 44% If Lowering the cost of healthcare, ask: (n288) In thinking about the state of the Affordable Care Act, commonly referred to as ObamaCare, would you like Congress to: Creating new jobs and improving the economy Reforming our immigration system 28% 33% Work to fix the problems with ObamaCare 57% Improving our nation's infrastructure Increasing national security 24% 23% Repeal and Replace ObamaCare 21% Reforming the criminal justice system Reducing the federal deficit 21% 20% Leave ObamaCare as it is 16% Combating the opioid epidemic 18% 11
Cultivating the Female Vote: Women would find it important if Congress passed a variety of bipartisan, commonsensical policy measures. On a scale of one to ten, how important are the following issues to you? (Ranked by MEAN Score) Among Women Passing legislation to prevent sex trafficking. Giving Veterans more options when it comes to health care. Improving international relations. Improving our national infrastructure. Lowering the federal deficit. Streamlining higher education funding and student loans. Reforming the criminal justice system. Making it easier for qualified small businesses to receive bank loans to help grow their business. Supporting our nation's farmers with laws to ensure their crops are protected. Passing legislation to combat the opioid crisis. Reforming our welfare system, by requiring able-bodied adults to work for the benefits that they receive. Renegotiating trade deals to better benefit U.S. workers and businesses. Draining the swamp in Washington. Protecting our borders and enforcing immigration laws. Limiting family-based immigration to immediate family, to reduce "chain migration." Repealing and replacing ObamaCare. Constructing a wall along our Southern border. 4.2 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.5 12
Legislative initiatives that are most important to women, are the same initiatives that are most important to the electorate as a whole. On a scale of one to ten, how important are the following issues to you? (ranked by MEAN Score) Passing legislation to prevent sex trafficking. Among Women Voters 8.5 Giving Veterans more options when it comes to health care. Improving international relations. Improving our national infrastructure. Lowering the federal deficit. 8.4 8.2 7.8 7.7 Among All Voters Giving Veterans more options when it comes to healthcare. Passing legislation to prevent sex trafficking. Improving our national infrastructure. Improving international relations. 8.4 8.3 7.9 7.9 Lowering the federal deficit. 7.7 13
Strategic passage of non-divisive legislation in 2018 may garner female trust on important issues such as infrastructure, the criminal justice system, and fighting for the middle class. For each issue, please tell me if who you trust (ROTATE) Republicans or Democrats, to better handle the issue... Among Women Getting tougher on violent criminals like MS13 gang members. Protecting our borders and enforcing immigration laws. Repealing and replacing ObamaCare. Lowering the federal deficit. Renegotiating trade deals that benefit U.S. workers and businesses. Draining the swamp in Washington. Improving our national infrastructure. Reforming our welfare system. Reforming the criminal justice system. Representing the view of the elites in New York and Hollywood. Improving international relations. Fighting for the middle class. 28% 28% Republican 36% 33% 27% 44% 45% 40% 38% 39% 28% 36% Democrat 50% 53% 39% 26% 45% 42% 33% 33% 40% 29% 39% 38% Republican Democrat + 18% + 12% + 7% 0% - 1% - 1% - 3% - 9% - 9% - 12% - 22% - 25% 14
Summary 15
Where Women Stand Is America is better off? Women agree that over the past year unemployment rates have dropped, the economy has improved, and illegal immigration has declined. Recent trends show women s expanding acceptance of the positive state of our nation, the stock market and trade deals, and the passage of tax reform. But... Women still don t ultimately believe that America is better off today than it was a year ago. Women need to see Republicans pass distinct, bipartisan legislation in order to develop trust for members of the party. 16