November 2, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson College Polls: Colorado Flips to Clinton While Trump Takes Back Arizona and Puts Georgia and Missouri Out of Reach. Blunt/Kander tied in MO Senate Race. BOSTON, MA Emerson College polls released today show Donald Trump holding a substantial lead over Hillary Clinton in two of the four states polled (Georgia and Missouri) while he and Clinton have both flipped a state where they previously trailed in Arizona and Colorado. In Georgia, Trump is winning 51% to 42%, and in Missouri he has opened up a 15- point advantage (52% to 37%), almost doubling the 8- point margin he had in a mid- October Emerson poll. Trump has also flipped Arizona to his column. Clinton led 44% to 42% in the first week of October but now trails 47% to 43%. Georgia and Arizona are two of the traditionally Red states that Democrats were hoping to turn Blue this year. In just about the only good news for Clinton in this batch of polls, she has turned the tables in Colorado. She previously trailed the GOP businessman by 4 points (42% to 38%) but now has a 3- point edge, 44% to 41%. Presidential Race November 2 Polls Arizona Colorado Georgia Missouri Hillary Clinton 43% 44% 42% 37% Donald Trump 47% 41% 51% 52% Gary Johnson 2% 8% 2% 5% Jill Stein 2% 4% 3% 2% Unsure 5% 3% 2% 4% Sample n=700 n=750 n=650 n=650 MOE 3.6% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% In U.S. Senate races, Democrat Michael Bennet, the senior senator for Colorado, is outperforming Clinton and currently has a 5- point advantage over Darryl Glenn. A very tight race in Missouri finds GOP Senator Roy Blunt tied with Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander at 45% apiece. The two men have similar favorability numbers, net - 5 for Blunt and net - 6 for Kander. 1
In the other two Senate races polled, the GOP incumbent has seen a substantial lead melt away in recent weeks, though not enough to be overtaken. The 16- point margin that Arizona Senator John McCain held over Ann Kirkpatrick in September has dwindled to 6 points in the current poll (46% to 40%). Similarly, Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson s 16- point advantage over Democrat Jim Barksdale shrank to 8 points (48% to 40%). However, with just one week to Election Day, both seats will very likely remain in the Republican column. Arizona John McCain(R): 46% Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 40% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 9% Senate Races Colorado Michael Bennet (D): 47% Darryl Glenn (R): 42% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 5% McCain: 48% Fav/44% Unfav (+4) Kirkpatrick: 32% Fav/51% Unfav (- 19) Bennet: 47% Fav/38% Unfav (+9) Glenn: 41% Fav/35% Unfav (+6) Georgia Johnny Isakson (R): 48% Jim Barksdale (D): 40% Someone else: 5% Undecided: 7% Isakson: 47% Fav/ 37% Unfav (+10) Barksdale: 26% Fav/33% Unfav (- 7) Missouri Roy Blunt (R): 45% Kander(D): 45% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 4% Blunt: 41% Fav/46% Unfav (- 5) Kander: 38% Fav/44% Unfav (- 6) At the top of the GOP ticket, Trump is drawing strength from Independents. He is trouncing Clinton with this group: by 38 points in Missouri, 22 in Georgia, and 20 in Arizona. She has a slight 3- point edge in Colorado. Trump is also doing well with men, while largely negating the gender advantage with women that Clinton enjoys in many states. For example, in Missouri and Georgia, men prefer Trump to Clinton by 16 and 24 points, respectively. However, he also garners 52% of the female vote in Missouri compared to Clinton s 37%, and he only trails her by 6 points, 50% to 44% among women in Georgia. CALLER ID The Emerson College Missouri and Colorado polls were conducted October 28-31, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Arizona and Georgia polls were conducted October 29-31. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: Missouri n=650, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.8 percentage points; Colorado n=750 with an MOE of +/- 3.5 percentage points; Arizona n=700 with an MOE of +/- 3.6 percentage points; Georgia n=650, with an MOE of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Missouri data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, and party affiliation. Colorado data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. Arizona data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party, and race. Georgia data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party and district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party 2
breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com. Tables Begin on Following Page 3
Arizona Table likely voter already voted, either by absentee ballot or early voting 210 30.0 30.0 30.0 plan to vote before Election Day, either by 108 15.5 15.5 45.5 absentee or early voting plan to vote on Election Day itself 382 54.5 54.5 100.0 party Democrat 196 28.0 28.0 28.0 Republican 238 34.0 34.0 62.0 Independent /other 266 38.0 38.0 100.0 gender male 350 50.0 50.0 50.0 female 350 50.0 50.0 100.0 2012 prez Barack Obama 312 44.5 44.5 44.5 Mitt Romney 375 53.5 53.5 98.0 someone else 14 2.0 2.0 100.0 4
primary Bernie Sanders 112 16.0 16.0 16.0 Hillary Clinton 178 25.5 25.5 41.5 Ted Cruz 104 14.8 14.8 56.3 Donald Trump 181 25.9 25.9 82.2 John Kasich 25 3.6 3.6 85.8 Marco Rubio 41 5.9 5.9 91.7 Other 54 7.7 7.7 99.4 not a registered voter 4.6.6 100.0 Hillary Clinton Favorable Favorable 232 33.1 33.1 33.1 Unfavorable 430 61.5 61.5 94.6 Undecided 36 5.2 5.2 99.8 Never heard of this public figure 2.2.2 100.0 Donald Trump Favorable Favorable 334 47.7 47.7 47.7 Unfavorable 337 48.2 48.2 95.9 Undecided 26 3.7 3.7 99.6 If you have never heard of this 3.4.4 100.0 public figure 5
Kirkpatrick Favorable 227 32.4 32.4 32.4 Unfavorable 359 51.3 51.3 83.7 Undecided 101 14.5 14.5 98.2 If you have never heard of this 13 1.8 1.8 100.0 public figure McCain Favorable 334 47.8 47.8 47.8 Unfavorable 307 43.9 43.9 91.7 Undecided 58 8.3 8.3 99.9 If you have never heard of this public figure.1.1 100.0 Presidential Election Ballot Hillary Clinton 304 43.4 43.4 43.4 Donald trump 329 47.0 47.0 90.4 Gary Johnson 16 2.3 2.3 92.7 Jill Stein 16 2.4 2.4 95.1 Unsure 34 4.9 4.9 100.0 Expectation Presdential Winner Hillary Clinton 333 47.6 47.6 47.6 Donald Trump 302 43.1 43.1 90.7 Gary Johnson 6.9.9 91.6 Jill Stein 30 4.3 4.3 95.9 Unsure 28 4.1 4.1 100.0 6
Senate Ballot Test Kirkpatrick 278 39.7 39.7 39.7 McCain 322 46.0 46.0 85.7 Someone Else 38 5.5 5.5 91.2 Undecided 61 8.8 8.8 100.0 Age 18-34 189 27.0 27.0 27.0 35-54 280 40.0 40.0 67.0 55-74 175 25.0 25.0 92.0 75+ 56 8.0 8.0 100.0 Ethnicity White 440 62.8 62.8 62.8 Black 45 6.4 6.4 69.2 American Indian /Alaska 8 1.1 1.1 70.3 Native Asian 13 1.8 1.8 72.1 Native Hawaiian /Pacific 13 1.9 1.9 74.0 Islander Hispanic /Latino 146 20.8 20.8 94.8 Other 30 4.3 4.3 99.1 unsure 6.9.9 100.0 7
Colorado Table Voting Intention Already Voted 466 62.2 62.2 62.2 Voting Early 255 33.9 33.9 96.1 Election Day 29 3.9 3.9 100.0 Party Democrat 255 34.0 34.0 34.0 Republican 233 31.0 31.0 65.0 Independent 262 35.0 35.0 100.0 Gender male 375 50.0 50.0 50.0 female 375 50.0 50.0 100.0 2012 Ballot Barack Obama 386 51.5 51.5 51.5 Mitt Romney 346 46.1 46.1 97.6 Someone else 18 2.4 2.4 100.0 8
2016 primary Sanders 161 21.4 21.4 21.4 Clinton 180 24.0 24.0 45.5 Cruz 50 6.7 6.7 52.1 Trump 175 23.4 23.4 75.5 Kasich 33 4.3 4.3 79.9 Rubio 32 4.3 4.3 84.2 Other 98 13.0 13.0 97.2 No vote 21 2.8 2.8 100.0 Clinton Name Rec favorable 293 39.1 39.1 39.1 unfavorable 428 57.1 57.1 96.2 undecided 23 3.0 3.0 99.2 never heard of 6.8.8 100.0 Trump Name Rec favorable 276 36.8 36.8 36.8 unfavorable 435 57.9 57.9 94.7 undecided 29 3.9 3.9 98.6 never heard of 10 1.4 1.4 100.0 9
Bennet favorable 355 47.3 47.3 47.3 unfavorable 288 38.4 38.4 85.8 undecided 98 13.0 13.0 98.8 never heard of 9 1.2 1.2 100.0 Glenn favorable 309 41.2 41.2 41.2 unfavorable 261 34.7 34.7 76.0 undecided 147 19.6 19.6 95.6 never heard of 33 4.4 4.4 100.0 Presidential Ballot Hillary Clinton 326 43.5 43.5 43.5 Donald Trump 309 41.2 41.2 84.7 Gary Johnson 59 7.8 7.8 92.5 Jill Stein 32 4.2 4.2 96.8 Unsure 24 3.2 3.2 100.0 Presidential Expectation Trump 313 41.8 41.8 41.8 Clinton 375 50.0 50.0 91.8 Johnson 14 1.8 1.8 93.6 Stein 3.4.4 94.0 Unsure 45 6.0 6.0 100.0 10
Senate Ballot Bennet 353 47.1 47.1 47.1 Glenn 318 42.4 42.4 89.5 Someone Else 44 5.9 5.9 95.4 Undecided 35 4.6 4.6 100.0 Age 18-34 172 23.0 23.0 23.0 35-54 278 37.0 37.0 60.0 55-74 225 30.0 30.0 90.0 75+ 75 10.0 10.0 100.0 Race white 578 77.0 77.0 77.0 black 22 3.0 3.0 80.0 American Indian 4.5.5 80.5 Hawaiian 15 2.0 2.0 82.5 Hispanic 112 15.0 15.0 97.5 2+/Other 19 2.5 2.5 100.0 11
Education <HS 55 7.3 7.4 7.4 HS 84 11.2 11.3 18.7 Some College 121 16.2 16.3 35.0 Associate 72 9.6 9.6 44.6 Bachelor 195 26.0 26.1 70.7 Post Grad 218 29.1 29.3 100.0 Total 745 99.3 100.0 Missing System 5.7 Total 750 100.0 Phone Status Cell Phone Only 91 12.2 12.3 12.3 Land Line only 80 10.6 10.7 23.0 both 573 76.3 77.0 100.0 Total 744 99.2 100.0 Missing System 6.8 Total 750 100.0 USC District 1.00 105 14.0 14.0 14.0 2.00 105 14.0 14.0 28.1 3.00 113 15.1 15.1 43.2 4.00 99 13.2 13.2 56.4 5.00 143 19.1 19.1 75.5 6.00 78 10.4 10.4 85.9 7.00 106 14.1 14.1 100.0 12
Missouri Table Voting Intention Already Voted 142 21.9 21.9 21.9 Voting Early 151 23.3 23.3 45.2 Election Day 356 54.8 54.8 100.0 Party Democrat 241 37.0 37.0 37.0 Republican 228 35.0 35.0 72.0 Independent 182 28.0 28.0 100.0 Gender male 289 44.5 44.5 44.5 female 361 55.5 55.5 100.0 2012 Ballot Barack Obama 289 44.4 44.4 44.4 Mitt Romney 350 53.8 53.8 98.2 Someone else 12 1.8 1.8 100.0 13
2016 primary Sanders 113 17.3 17.3 17.3 Clinton 158 24.3 24.3 41.6 Cruz 91 14.0 14.0 55.6 Trump 176 27.0 27.0 82.6 Kasich 42 6.4 6.4 89.0 Rubio 22 3.5 3.5 92.5 Other 47 7.2 7.2 99.7 No vote 2.3.3 100.0 Clinton Name Rec favorable 217 33.3 33.3 33.3 unfavorable 417 64.1 64.1 97.4 undecided 8 1.2 1.2 98.7 never heard of 9 1.3 1.3 100.0 Trump Name Rec favorable 300 46.2 46.2 46.2 unfavorable 334 51.4 51.4 97.6 undecided 14 2.2 2.2 99.9 never heard of 1.1.1 100.0 14
Blunt favorable 269 41.4 41.4 41.4 unfavorable 300 46.1 46.1 87.6 undecided 68 10.4 10.4 98.0 never heard of 13 2.0 2.0 100.0 Kander favorable 248 38.1 38.1 38.1 unfavorable 288 44.3 44.3 82.4 undecided 90 13.8 13.8 96.2 never heard of 25 3.8 3.8 100.0 Presidential Ballot Hillary Clinton 239 36.8 36.8 36.8 Donald Trump 339 52.2 52.2 89.0 Gary Johnson 31 4.8 4.8 93.8 Jill Stein 15 2.3 2.3 96.1 Unsure 25 3.9 3.9 100.0 Presidential Expectation Trump 334 51.4 51.4 51.4 Clinton 263 40.5 40.5 91.9 Johnson 12 1.8 1.8 93.7 Stein 1.1.1 93.8 Unsure 40 6.2 6.2 100.0 15
Senate Ballot Kander 294 45.2 45.2 45.2 Blunt 294 45.2 45.2 90.4 Someone Else 36 5.5 5.5 95.9 Undecided 27 4.1 4.1 100.0 Age 18-34 169 26.0 26.0 26.0 35-54 247 38.0 38.0 64.0 55-74 182 28.0 28.0 92.0 75+ 52 8.0 8.0 100.0 Race white 479 73.7 73.7 73.7 black 100 15.4 15.4 89.1 American Indian 13 2.0 2.0 91.0 Asian 25 3.8 3.8 94.8 Hispanic 12 1.8 1.8 96.6 2+/Other 10 1.5 1.5 98.1 refused 12 1.9 1.9 100.0 Phone Status Cell Phone Only 67 10.3 10.4 10.4 Land Line only 64 9.8 9.8 20.2 both 516 79.3 79.8 100.0 Total 647 99.5 100.0 Missing System 3.5 Total 650 100.0 16
USC District 1.00 91 13.9 13.9 13.9 2.00 107 16.4 16.4 30.4 3.00 101 15.5 15.5 45.9 4.00 71 10.9 10.9 56.8 5.00 70 10.8 10.8 67.6 6.00 56 8.6 8.6 76.2 7.00 83 12.7 12.7 88.9 8.00 72 11.1 11.1 100.0 Georgia Table Voting Intention Already Voted 301 46.3 46.3 46.3 Plan to Vote early 218 33.6 33.6 79.9 Election Day 131 20.1 20.1 100.0 Party Democrat 260 40.0 40.0 40.0 Republican 241 37.0 37.0 77.0 Independent 149 23.0 23.0 100.0 17
Gender male 312 48.0 48.0 48.0 female 338 52.0 52.0 100.0 2012 Ballot Barack Obama 296 45.5 45.5 45.5 Mitt Romney 346 53.3 53.3 98.8 Did not vote 8 1.2 1.2 100.0 2016 primary Sanders 60 9.3 9.3 9.3 Clinton 236 36.4 36.4 45.6 Cruz 68 10.5 10.5 56.2 Trump 199 30.6 30.6 86.7 Kasich 19 2.9 2.9 89.7 Rubio 40 6.2 6.2 95.9 Other 25 3.8 3.8 99.7 No vote 2.3.3 100.0 Clinton Name Rec favorable 266 40.9 40.9 40.9 unfavorable 378 58.2 58.2 99.1 undecided 5.8.8 100.0 never heard.0.0 100.0 of 18
Trump Name Rec favorable 282 43.3 43.3 43.3 unfavorable 350 53.9 53.9 97.2 undecided 18 2.8 2.8 100.0 Barksdale favorable 171 26.3 26.3 26.3 unfavorable 215 33.1 33.1 59.4 undecided 171 26.2 26.2 85.6 never heard of 93 14.4 14.4 100.0 Isakson favorable 306 47.1 47.1 47.1 unfavorable 243 37.3 37.3 84.4 undecided 73 11.2 11.2 95.6 never heard of 29 4.4 4.4 100.0 Presidential Ballot Hillary Clinton 275 42.4 42.4 42.4 Donald Trump 331 50.9 50.9 93.3 Gary Johnson 10 1.5 1.5 94.8 Jill Stein 20 3.1 3.1 97.9 Unsure 14 2.1 2.1 100.0 19
Presidential Expectation Trump 315 48.4 48.4 48.4 Clinton 275 42.3 42.3 90.7 Johnson 1.2.2 90.8 Stein 12 1.8 1.8 92.6 Unsure 48 7.4 7.4 100.0 Age 18-34 156 24.0 24.0 24.0 35-54 241 37.0 37.0 61.0 55-74 208 32.0 32.0 93.0 75+ 46 7.0 7.0 100.0 Race white 378 58.2 58.2 58.2 black 179 27.5 27.5 85.7 American Indian 36 5.6 5.6 91.2 Asian 8 1.2 1.2 92.4 Hawaiian 1.1.1 92.5 Hispanic 7 1.1 1.1 93.6 2+/Other 30 4.6 4.6 98.3 refused 11 1.7 1.7 100.0 20
Education <HS 30 4.6 4.6 4.6 HS 74 11.4 11.5 16.1 Some College 131 20.2 20.3 36.4 Associate 66 10.1 10.1 46.5 Bachelor 156 24.0 24.1 70.7 Post Grad 190 29.2 29.3 100.0 Total 647 99.6 100.0 Missing System 3.4 Total 650 100.0 Phone Status Cell Phone Only 89 13.7 14.2 14.2 Land Line only 53 8.1 8.4 22.5 both 489 75.3 77.5 100.0 Total 631 97.1 100.0 Missing System 19 2.9 Total 650 100.0 USC District 1.00 24 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.00 67 10.4 10.4 14.0 3.00 50 7.7 7.7 21.8 4.00 35 5.5 5.5 27.2 5.00 33 5.1 5.1 32.4 6.00 53 8.1 8.1 40.5 7.00 51 7.8 7.8 48.3 8.00 39 6.0 6.0 54.3 9.00 35 5.3 5.3 59.7 10.00 55 8.5 8.5 68.2 11.00 38 5.8 5.8 74.0 12.00 56 8.6 8.6 82.6 13.00 58 8.8 8.8 91.4 21
14.00 56 8.6 8.6 100.0 Region South 186 28.6 28.6 28.6 North 232 35.7 35.7 64.3 Central 232 35.7 35.7 100.0 Senate Barksdale 261 40.1 40.1 40.1 Isakson 315 48.4 48.4 88.6 Someone Else 29 4.5 4.5 93.0 Undecided 45 7.0 7.0 100.0 22