November 1, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson College Polls: Clinton Leads in Virginia (+4), Maine (+4) and Illinois (+12) and Is Holding Her Own with Independents and Whites. Following Kirk s Debate Gaffe, Duckworth Surges in Illinois Senate Race. BOSTON, MA - - New Emerson College polls released today show Hillary Clinton running well ahead of Donald Trump in Illinois (53% to 41%) and 4 points ahead of him in both Virginia (49% to 45%) and Maine (46% to 42%). Clinton has doubled her Illinois lead to 12 points since a September 22 poll, while Trump has closed the gap in Maine, where she previously led him by 9 points. The Virginia and Maine polls were conducted after news broke that the FBI is investigating emails found on a laptop owned by top Clinton aide, Human Abedin, and her husband Anthony Weiner. The Illinois poll was completed before that news became public. Presidential Race Virginia Illinois Maine Published Nov 1 Oct 13 Nov 1 Sept 22 Oct 31 Sept 7 Hillary Clinton 49% 46% 53% 45% 46% 44% Donald Trump 45% 43% 41% 39% 42% 35% Gary Johnson 3% 6% 2% 6% 5% 12% Jill Stein 1% 3% 1% 2% Unsure 2% 4% 2% 7% 5% 7% Sample size N=800 n=600 n=500 n=700 n=750 n=800 MOE 3.4% 3.9% 4.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% In the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, Democrat Tammy Baldwin has surged ahead of the GOP incumbent, Mark Kirk, and now leads by 18 points, 54% to 36%. This is a major jump from the 2- point edge Duckworth held in late September. Kirk came under fire for a sarcastic comment he made about Duckworth s Thai heritage and her military service during a debate last week. He quickly walked back those remarks. Duckworth is seen more favorably than her opponent, with 50% 1
of voters having a positive view of her compared to 36% who hold a negative opinion, a net of +14. Kirk s favorable/unfavorable ratio is 36% to 48%, net - 12. Voters are splitting the ticket in Illinois, with 14% of Clinton voters opting for Kirk, the Republican, in the Senate race while 23% of Trump voters are going for Duckworth. Presidential Favorable/Unfavorable Virginia Illinois Maine Clinton - 11 Fav: 44% Unfav: 55% +7 Fav: 53% Unfav: 46% - 5 Fav: 46% Unfav: 51% Trump - 23 Fav: 37% Unfav: 60% - 32 Fav: 32% Unfav: 64% - 24 Fav: 36% Unfav: 60% In the three states polled, Clinton has been aided by favorability ratings that are substantially better than Trump s. Her net ratings are - 11 (Virginia), - 5 (Maine) and +7 (Illinois) compared to his - 23, - 24 and - 32 in those states, respectively. There is a pattern in recent Emerson polls where she can only carve out a comfortable lead if her favorability numbers are much higher than his. Clinton is holding her own with Independents, white voters, and those ages 35-54, groups that tend to strongly favor Trump. Independents are breaking for her 47% to 41% in Virginia. They are evenly divided in Maine (where Trump leads 41% to 40%), and they favor him 45% to 37% in Illinois. In Virginia, she is getting 45% of the white vote, compared to his 50%. In Illinois he leads among whites 49% to 47%. With voters ages 35-54, the race is tight in all three states, with no more than 3 points separating the candidates. Clinton is also doing well with young people, ages 18 to 34, leading Trump by 11 points in Virginia, 44 in Illinois and 18 in Maine. The Emerson College New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Utah polls were conducted October 17-19, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. CALLER ID The Emerson College Virginia and Maine polls were conducted October 28-30, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Illinois poll was conducted October 27-30. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: Virginia n=800, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points; Illinois n=500 with an MOE of +/- 4.3 percentage points; and Maine n=750 with an MOE of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Illinois and Virginia data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. The Maine data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, party affiliation and district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com. Frequency Tables Begin on the Following Page 2
Virginia Frequency Table Voting Intention Frequency Already voted 116 14.4 14.4 14.4 plan to vote early 210 26.3 26.3 40.7 election day 474 59.3 59.3 100.0 party Frequency Democrat 312 39.0 39.0 39.0 Republican 264 33.0 33.0 72.0 Independent 224 28.0 28.0 100.0 gender Frequency male 376 47.0 47.0 47.0 female 424 53.0 53.0 100.0 2012 Ballot Frequency Barack Obama 406 50.8 50.8 50.8 Mitt Romney 382 47.8 47.8 98.6 Someone else 11 1.4 1.4 100.0 3
2016 primary Frequency Sanders 92 11.5 11.5 11.5 Clinton 296 37.0 37.0 48.5 Cruz 45 5.6 5.6 54.1 Trump 204 25.5 25.5 79.5 Kasich 38 4.8 4.8 84.3 Rubio 65 8.1 8.1 92.4 Other 55 6.9 6.9 99.3 No vote 5.7.7 100.0 Clinton Favorability Frequency favorable 354 44.2 44.2 44.2 unfavorable 436 54.6 54.6 98.8 undecided 9 1.1 1.1 99.9 never heard of 1.1.1 100.0 Trump Favorability Frequency favorable 300 37.4 37.4 37.4 unfavorable 480 60.0 60.0 97.5 undecided 19 2.4 2.4 99.9 never heard of 1.1.1 100.0 4
Presidential Ballot Frequency Clinton 393 49.1 49.1 49.1 Trump 358 44.8 44.8 93.9 Gary Johnson 25 3.1 3.1 97.0 Jill Stein 6.7.7 97.7 Unsure 18 2.3 2.3 100.0 PrezExpect Frequency Hillary Clinton 343 42.8 42.8 42.8 Donald Trump 402 50.3 50.3 93.1 Gary Johnson 6.8.8 93.9 Jill Stein 3.3.3 94.2 Unsure 46 5.8 5.8 100.0 age Frequency 18-34 196 24.5 24.5 24.5 35-54 248 31.0 31.0 55.5 55-74 288 36.0 36.0 91.5 75+ 68 8.5 8.5 100.0 5
education Frequency >HS 42 5.2 5.2 5.2 HS 93 11.7 11.7 16.9 Some College 146 18.3 18.3 35.2 Associate 59 7.3 7.3 42.5 Bachelor 216 27.0 27.0 69.5 Post Grad 242 30.3 30.3 99.8 Other.0.0 99.8 Refused 1.2.2 100.0 race Frequency white 558 69.7 69.7 69.7 black 154 19.2 19.2 88.9 American Indian 4.5.5 89.4 Asian 16 2.0 2.0 91.4 Hawaiian 4.5.5 91.9 Hispanic 40 5.1 5.1 97.0 2+/Other 24 3.0 3.0 100.0 6
Illinois Frequency Table Voting Intention Frequency Already Voted 113 22.6 22.6 22.6 Plan to vote early 207 41.3 41.3 63.9 Election day 180 36.1 36.1 100.0 Party Frequency Democrat 251 50.2 50.2 50.2 Republican 168 33.7 33.7 83.9 Independent 78 15.6 15.6 99.5 Other 3.5.5 100.0 Gender Frequency male 240 48.0 48.0 48.0 female 260 52.0 52.0 100.0 2012 Ballot Frequency Barack Obama 290 58.0 58.0 58.0 Mitt Romney 205 41.0 41.0 99.0 Someone else 5 1.0 1.0 100.0 7
2016 primary Frequency Sanders 93 18.5 18.5 18.5 Clinton 178 35.7 35.7 54.2 Cruz 54 10.7 10.7 64.9 Trump 90 18.0 18.0 82.9 Kasich 40 8.0 8.0 90.9 Rubio 27 5.4 5.4 96.3 Other 18 3.7 3.7 100.0 Clinton Name Rec Frequency favorable 266 53.1 53.1 53.1 unfavorable 231 46.1 46.1 99.2 undecided 4.8.8 100.0 Trump Name Rec Frequency favorable 159 31.8 31.8 31.8 unfavorable 319 63.8 63.8 95.6 undecided 22 4.4 4.4 100.0 Duckworth Frequency favorable 250 50.0 50.0 50.0 unfavorable 180 36.0 36.0 86.0 undecided 48 9.5 9.5 95.5 never heard of 22 4.5 4.5 100.0 8
Kirk Frequency favorable 179 35.8 35.8 35.8 unfavorable 238 47.7 47.7 83.5 undecided 69 13.9 13.9 97.4 never heard of 13 2.6 2.6 100.0 Presidential Ballot Frequency Hillary Clinton 267 53.4 53.4 53.4 Donald Trump 207 41.3 41.3 94.8 Gary Johnson 10 1.9 1.9 96.7 Jill Stein 5 1.0 1.0 97.7 Unsure 11 2.3 2.3 100.0 Presidential Expectation Frequency Trump 191 38.2 38.2 38.2 Clinton 276 55.2 55.2 93.3 Johnson 1.2.2 93.5 Stein 3.5.5 94.1 Unsure 30 5.9 5.9 100.0 Senate Frequency Kirk 181 36.2 36.2 36.2 Duckworth 269 53.7 53.7 89.9 Other 27 5.3 5.3 95.3 Undecided 24 4.7 4.7 100.0 9
Age Frequency 18-34 120 24.0 24.0 24.0 35-54 175 35.0 35.0 59.0 55-74 150 30.0 30.0 89.0 75+ 55 11.0 11.0 100.0 Race Frequency white 338 67.7 67.7 67.7 black 102 20.5 20.5 88.1 American Indian 8 1.7 1.7 89.8 Asian 8 1.6 1.6 91.4 Hawaiian 3.7.7 92.1 Hispanic 21 4.3 4.3 96.3 2+/Other 8 1.6 1.6 97.9 refused 11 2.1 2.1 100.0 Education Frequency >HS 16 3.3 3.3 3.3 HS 79 15.8 15.9 19.2 Some College 114 22.7 22.9 42.2 Associate 30 6.1 6.1 48.3 Bachelor 133 26.7 26.9 75.2 Post Grad 123 24.5 24.8 100.0 Total 496 99.1 100.0 Missing System 4.9 Total 500 100.0 10
Maine Frequency Table Voting Intention Frequency Already voted 220 29.4 29.4 29.4 plan to vote early 239 31.9 31.9 61.2 election day 291 38.8 38.8 100.0 party Frequency Democrat 240 32.0 32.0 32.0 Republican 203 27.0 27.0 59.0 Independent 307 41.0 41.0 100.0 gender Frequency male 352 47.0 47.0 47.0 female 398 53.0 53.0 100.0 2012 Ballot Frequency Barack Obama 420 56.0 56.0 56.0 Mitt Romney 307 40.9 40.9 96.9 Someone else 23 3.1 3.1 100.0 11
2016 primary Frequency Sanders 188 25.0 25.0 25.0 Clinton 191 25.5 25.5 50.5 Cruz 56 7.5 7.5 57.9 Trump 193 25.8 25.8 83.7 Kasich 28 3.8 3.8 87.5 Rubio 18 2.4 2.4 89.9 Other 56 7.5 7.5 97.4 No vote 19 2.6 2.6 100.0 Clinton Favorability Frequency favorable 342 45.6 45.6 45.6 unfavorable 385 51.3 51.3 96.9 undecided 21 2.8 2.8 99.7 never heard of 2.3.3 100.0 Trump Favorability Frequency favorable 270 36.0 36.0 36.0 unfavorable 446 59.5 59.5 95.4 undecided 29 3.9 3.9 99.4 never heard of 5.6.6 100.0 12
Presidential Ballot Frequency Clinton 347 46.2 46.2 46.2 Trump 317 42.3 42.3 88.5 Gary Johnson 39 5.2 5.2 93.8 Jill Stein 11 1.4 1.4 95.2 Unsure 36 4.8 4.8 100.0 PrezExpect Frequency Hillary Clinton 330 44.0 44.0 44.0 Donald Trump 354 47.2 47.2 91.2 Gary Johnson 6.8.8 92.0 Jill Stein 1.1.1 92.1 Unsure 59 7.9 7.9 100.0 age Frequency 18-34 85 11.3 11.3 11.3 35-54 245 32.7 32.7 44.0 55-74 323 43.0 43.0 87.0 75+ 98 13.0 13.0 100.0 13
education Frequency >HS 25 3.3 3.4 3.4 HS 137 18.3 18.7 22.1 Some College 161 21.4 21.9 43.9 Associate 86 11.5 11.7 55.7 Bachelor 154 20.5 20.9 76.6 Post Grad 170 22.6 23.1 99.7 Other 2.3.3 100.0 Total 735 97.9 100.0 Missing System 15 2.1 Total 750 100.0 Phone Status Frequency Cell Phone Only 66 8.7 9.1 9.1 Land Line only 115 15.3 15.9 25.0 both 542 72.3 75.0 100.0 Total 723 96.4 100.0 Missing System 27 3.6 Total 750 100.0 USC District Frequency 1.00 375 50.0 50.0 50.0 2.00 375 50.0 50.0 100.0 Region Frequency Missing System 750 100.0 14
race Frequency white 654 87.2 88.4 88.4 black 28 3.7 3.7 92.2 American Indian 14 1.8 1.8 94.0 Asian 8 1.0 1.0 95.1 Hawaiian 1.2.2 95.3 Hispanic 7.9.9 96.2 2+/Other 20 2.7 2.7 98.9 refused 8 1.1 1.1 100.0 Total 739 98.6 100.0 Missing System 11 1.4 Total 750 100.0 15