Armenia National Voter Study November 00 International Republican Institute, Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization, Armenian Sociological Association with funding from the United States Agency for International Development
INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY This national representative survey was conducted from November 0-9, 00.,00 Armenian residents (voters) aged 8 years and over were interviewed face-to-face. The margin of error does not exceed percent. The survey was carried out on behalf of IRI. It was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization (Dr. R.Alisauskiene). The fieldwork was carried out by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA).
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
Mood of the country: 8 percent of Armenians think that the country is on the wrong track, while percent think that the country is going in the right direction Do you think that things in Armenia are going in the... Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer November 00 8 0 August 00 7 May 00 0 0 0 0 80 00
Mood of the country: percent of Armenians see improvement in the country s economy, while percent think it is declining Over the last three months, the economic situation in Armenia has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer November 00 0 7 August 00 7 9 May 00 8 0 0 0 0 0 80 00
Mood of the country: percent of Armenians say their household s financial situation has improved, while 7 percent say it has declined Over the last three months, the financial situation of your household has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer November 00 8 7 0 August 00 0 7 7 0 May 00 8 7 0 0 0 0 80 00
Mood of the country: 9 percent of Armenians are satisfied with the development of democracy, while 8 percent are not How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA November 00 8 0 0 August 00 8 0 8 May 00 0 0 0 0 80 00 7
Mood of the country: An overall majority of Armenians think that it will take a long time to improve things in their country Do you believe that things will get better in a short time, or will it take a long time for things to get better in the country? Short time Long time Not sure/refused November 00 8 7 0 August 00 8 7 May 00 79 8 0 0 0 0 80 00 8
Mood of the Nation: Expectations 00 90 80 70 0 7 No expectation for the future Total disbelief in any improvement Insecurity, fear for future 0 Apathy 0 0 0 0 0 0 May 00 August 00 November 00 0 Not much hope for the future Hope that the future will be somewhat better Belief that the future will be definitely better 9
Mood of the Nation Optimism Neutral Pessimism November 00 7 9 August 00 7 0 May 00 0 0 0 0 0 80 00 0
Over the last year attitudes towards the way things are developing in Armenia has become: 00 80 7 0 0 7 8 9 DK/NA More pesimistic Stayed the same More optimistic 0 8 0 May 00 August 00 November 00
ISSUES
Most important issues facing Armenia November 00 (%) Unemployment Social-economic situation Problem of Nagorno Karabakh Corruption Development of the economy, industry Migration Democracy, respect of human rights Foreign policy Implementation of laws Recognition of genocide Other DK/NA 7 7 8 9 7 8 First mention All mentions
Most important issue facing towns/villages in Armenia November 00 (%) Unemployment Housing, communal services Sanitation Transport, road conditions Development of economy/industry/agriculture Ecology Creation of places for entertainment, sport, etc. Illegal construction Low salaries, pensions Corruption Implemention of laws, respect for human rights Other DK/NA 8 0 9 0 0 9 First mention All mentions
Most important issue facing households in Armenia November 00 (%) Social-economic situation Unemployment Housing, communal services Education, health Unsatisfactory communal services Labor migration/migration Other DK/NA 7 8 First mention All mentions
Issues At the personal/household level, social issues are most pressing. At community level, the most important problem is unemployment. At the national level, social problems and territorial integrity/security issues are most important.
Problems of Nagorno Karabakh Social-economic situation People s Fears November 00 (%) War Migration Unemployment Lack of recognition of the genocide Uncertainty regarding the future Corruption Slow development of economy Not implementation of laws Blockade Wrong policy Other DK/NA 7 9 7 0 7 First mention All mentions 7
People s Fears The biggest fears are related to instability/security: territorial integrity of the country, war, social instability (socialeconomic problems, unemployment) and migration. 8
POLITICS 9
What should the Armenian government accomplish first to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? November 00 (%) Create jobs Increase salaries, pensions Develop economy Carry out fair elections Fulfill promises Fight corruption Improve living conditions Implement laws Stabilization of prices Solve Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Improve educational system Improve foreign and internal policy Return deposits Other DK/NA 7 7 8 8 9 0 0 7 9 7 First mention All mentions 0 8
Interest in Politics (%) Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA November 00 7 7 August 00 9 0 0 May 00 7 7 0 0 0 0 80 00
Do you plan to vote in the next parliamentary elections or not? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Have not decided yet DK/NA November 00 0 9 August 00 7 7 May 00 7 9 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 80 90 00
When considering which party to vote for, what is more important? Leader is more important Party is more important None No answer November 00 8 August 00 May 00 9 0 0 0 0 80 00
All other things equal, would vote for: More active, younger candidate More experienced, older Does not matter No answer November 00 8 August 00 May 00 0 0 0 0 0 80 00
All other things equal, would vote for: Male Female Does not matter No answer November 00 7 August 00 8 May 00 7 9 0 0 0 0 80 00
Major mistakes and failures of Armenian authorities over the last year: November 00 (%) Lack of attention to people Did not fight enough against corruption Sale of state assets Ignoring laws Economic issues Foreign and internal policy Did not prevent rise of prices Educational system All actions of the government Falsification of referendum Too many parties Migration Not returning deposits Low salaries, low pensions Other DK/NA 7 7 7 7 8 9 0 9 9 First mention All mentioned 7 7
The wrongdoing and corruption of political leaders and authorities is (%) Very serious problem Rather serious problem Not very serious problem Not a problem at all DK/NA November 00 0 August 00 78 9 May 00 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 80 90 00 7
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 8
Evaluation of relations with November 00 (%) Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA Russia 9 Iran 8 7 European Union 8 9 USA 0 0 Georgia 0 7 Turkey 9 Azerbaijan 98 0 0 0 0 80 00 9
International Relations: Partners and Threats November 00 (%) Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? And which comprise the greatest political and economic threat? 88 Partners Threats 8 9 7 0. 7 0. 0. Russia France European Union Iran USA Georgia Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA 0
0. How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future? Is it. (%) Very important Rather important Not very important Not at all important DK / NA November 00 7. August 00 7 May 00 77 0 0 0 0 0 80 00
Thinking about the future of Nagorno Karabakh, do you think it should (%) 9 7 7 May 00 August 00 November 00 0 0 0 Be an ordinary region of Armenia, without any autonomy Be an autonomous region of the Armenian state Be an independent country Be a part of Azerbaijan DK/NA
Do you think that the current situation in regard to the status of Nagorno Karabakh should be resolved through negotiations and peaceful means, or should some force be used if necessary? (%) November 00 8 August 00 8 7 May 00 8 0 0 0 0 80 00 Negotiations and peaceful means Using force if necessary DK/NA
Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA November 00 0 7 August 00 8 May 00 9 0 0 0 0 80 00
In your opinion, does the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia have a positive or negative influence on Armenian independence and stability in the country? Positive influence Neither positive nor negative Both positive and negative Negative influence DK/NA November 00 0 August 00 7 May 00 0 0 0 0 80 00
Should the government of Armenia agree to open the border for trade, etc., with Turkey even if the Turkish government does not recognize the genocide? Should open the border regardless Should not open the border DK/NA November 00 7 0 August 00 9 7 May 00 8 9 0 0 0 0 80 00
Do you have friends or relatives working abroad? Yes No November 00 August 00 May 00 9 0 0 0 0 80 00 7
Do you personally benefit from remittances being sent from friends or relatives working abroad? (Those who have friends or relatives abroad, %) Yes No November 00 August 00 May 00 0 0 0 0 80 00 8
Do you think Russia is a trustworthy ally of Armenia? (%) November 00 8 August 00 8 May 00 7 0 0 0 0 80 00 Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA 9
Should Armenia in the future November 00 (%) Join NATO 9 0 Join European Union 7 0 Remain a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States 8 Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA 0
INSTITUTIONS
Confidence In Institutions: November 00 (%) Commonwealth of Independent States 8 European Union 8 Army 8 8 United Nations 80 7 Church 7 OSCE 7 9 Armenian media 8 NATO 9 Educational system President's office Central bank Government (Cabinet of Ministers) 0 7 Armenian parliament 7 70 Police 7 7 Political parties 7 Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
HEROES OF OUR TIMES
Heroes For Our Times Of the prominent Armenian people and characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present time? (Open-ended question, percent) May 00 0 9 8 Andranik Garegin Njdeh Vazgen Sargsyan Karen Demirchyan Tigran Metz Charles Aznavour Dro Monte Melkonyan Mesrop Mashtots Other None DK/NA
Heroes For Our Times Of the prominent Armenian people and characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present? (Open-ended question, percent) August 00 9 8 7 0 8 Andranik Vazgen Sargsyan Garegin Njdeh Karen Demirchyan Tigran Metz Vardan Mamikonyan Gagik Tsarukyan Monte Melkonyan Mesrop Mashtots Charles Aznavour Dro Marshal Bagramyan Other None DK/NA
Heroes For Our Times Of the prominent Armenian people and characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present? (Open-ended question, percent) November 00 9 8 8 8 Vazgen Sargssyan Andranik Karen Demirchyan Garegin Njdeh Gagik Tsarukyan Charles Aznavour Monte Melkonyan Tigran Metz Dro Vardan Mamikonyan Artashes Gegamyan Tigran Karapetyan R.Kocharyan Artur Baghdasaryan Other None DK/NA
Tolerance November 00 (%) It is a good thing for any society to be made up of people from different religions 7 Armenia has always consisted of various cultural and religious groups 0 8 In order to be fully accepted members of Armenian society, people belonging to these minority groups must give up such parts of their religion or culture which may be in conflict with Armenian tradition 7 0 Armenia has reached its limits; if there were to be more people belonging to religious minorities we would have problems 7 0 Whether people belonging to religious minority groups can be fully accepted members of Armenian society depends on which group they belong to 7 Tend to agree Tend to disagree DK/NA 7
SOURCES OF INFORMATION 8
Sources of Political Information (%) TV - news, programs Relatives, friends 7 9 97 99 97 Articles in newspapers 8 Radio - news, programs Colleagues at work 8 8 8 Meetings with politicians Internet Billboards, stands in the streets Articles in magazines Leaflets, and other free information by post 0 8 8 7 May 00 August 00 November 00 9
Sources for Election Campaign Information November 00 (%) Meetings with/opinions of respected people 0 0 9 Meetings with politicians 9 9 0 7 TV ads 8 Articles in the newspapers about the candidates 9 8 7 Visits of party or candidate representatives to your home 9 9 8 0 Personal letters to you from the candidate 8 9 Telephone calls to your home from the political party or candidate 7 8 0 Paid ads in the media for the candidate or party 7 0 Leaflets Radio ads 9 9 Billboards 8 Slogans, texts on transport Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA 0
In your opinion, are people in Armenia afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid DK/NA November 00 8 0 August 00 7 May 00 0 8 0 0 0 0 80 00
Trust in Elections 0 How fraudulent was the referendum of 00? (0 - very fraudulent, - not at all fraudulent) 9 8 7 8. 7.8 8. 7.7 7. 7.79 8.07 7. 7.7 7. 7. 7. 7. 7.7 7. 7. 7. 7. 7.8 7. 7. 7. 7. 7.8.87.8. Total GENDER Male Female AGE 8-9 0-9 0+ SETTLEMENT Capital Towns Rural area May 00 August 00 Nov 00
Trust in Elections The next parliamentary elections will be (%) November 00 0 9 August 00 78 9 May 00 7 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 80 90 00 Free and fair Not free and fair No opinion
Trust in Elections 0 How fraudulent will the upcoming parliamentary elections be? (0 - very fraudulent, - not at all fraudulent) 9 8 7 7.7 7.0 7.00 7.8 7. 7..9 7..8 7. 7.9 7.7 7. 7..9.99..7 8. 7.8 7..9.9.7..79. Total GENDER Male Female AGE 8-9 0-9 0+ SETTLEMENT Capital Towns Rural area
Trust in Elections Do you think that the Armenian government is implementing anti-fraud measures for the parliamentary elections and that they will indeed be free and fair? 00 7 DK/NA 80 0 0 7 No, it is not sincere and there will not be improvement 0 0 7 May 00 August 00 November 00 Yes, it is implementing measures of this kind and there will be improvement
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS
Gender Male 7% Female % 0+ % Age groups 8-9 7% 0-9 % 7
Unfinished higher % University, higher % Education Primary % Unfinished secondary % Vocational 7% Secondary % Household size Six % Seven and more 9% Five 0% One % Four % Three % Two % 8
Nongovernmental % Sector of Employment Don't work % State % Private % Member of a nongovernmental organization % Membership in Organizations None 8% Member of a party % 9