MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL FEBRUARY 2018 2018 SENATE RACE EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication - Wednesday, February 7, 2018 Broadcast & Internet Release - 6 am. Wednesday, February 7, 2018 Copyright 2018 Tracking public opinion in Florida since 1984 1
NO CHANGE IN FLORIDA SENATE RACE NELSON HOLDS INSIGNIFICANT 1-POINT LEAD OVER SCOTT The potential Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and termlimited Republican Governor Rick Scott has remained static over the last four months. Statewide, Nelson holds a narrow 45%-44% lead over Scott, not significantly different than the 44%-44% tie posted in October. 2018 SENATE RACE 44% 11% 45% NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED The change in support for each candidate over the past year Nelson -1% and Scott +3% falls within the combined margin for error of all three Mason-Dixon Florida polls. 2018 SENATE RACE NELSON SCOTT UND February 2017 46% 41% 13% October 2017 44% 44% 12% February 2018 45% 44% 11% 2
Demographically, there has also been little change. Nelson remains ahead among Democrats (81%-9%), women (51%-37%), blacks (83%-6%) and Hispanics (56%- 34%). Scott still has the advantage with Republicans (84%-4%), men (52%-39%) and whites (55%-34%). Those with no party affiliation continue to lean for Scott (49%-38%). Nelson still has a large lead in Southeast Florida (61%-28%), but Scott continues to hold wide margins in North Florida (58%-32%) and Southwest Florida (56%-35%). The decisive I-4 corridor is divided within itself -- Scott leads in the Central Florida region (47%-41%), but Nelson has moved ahead in Tampa Bay (46%-41%). Scott continues to be viewed favorably by more state voters than Nelson (42%- 37%), but also still has more voters who view him unfavorably (32%-24%). 120% 100% 80% 3% 23% 12% 27% DON'T RECOGNIZE 60% 40% 32% 24% NEUTRAL UNFAVORABLE FAVORABLE 20% 42% 37% 0% SCOTT NAME ID NELSON NAME ID With opinion of President Donald Trump in Florida still about as evenly split as it was on Election Day 2016 -- 44% favorable/45% unfavorable -- all signs point to a fierce contest. With such little movement over the course of a year, particularly given the strong level of partisanship within Congress and the divisiveness among voters in their views of President Trump, this race may be destined to become the bellwether contest of the country. 3
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Rick Scott 42% 32% 23% 3% Bill Nelson 37% 24% 27% 12% Donald Trump 44% 45% 11% - 4
QUESTION: If the 2018 election for Florida s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Nelson, the Democrat and Rick Scott, the Republican? NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED STATE 45% 44% 11% REGION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED North Florida 32% 58% 10% Central Florida 41% 47% 12% Tampa Bay 46% 41% 13% Southwest Florida 35% 56% 9% Southeast Florida 61% 28% 11% SEX NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED Men 39% 52% 9% Women 51% 37% 12% AGE NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED 18-34 54% 31% 15% 35-49 46% 44% 10% 50-64 42% 47% 11% 65+ 42% 48% 10% RACE/ETHNICITY NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED White 34% 55% 11% Black 83% 6% 11% Hispanic 56% 34% 10% PARTY REGISTRATION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED Democrat 81% 9% 10% Republican 4% 84% 12% Independent 38% 49% 13% 5
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from January 30 through February 1, 2018. A total of 625 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. 6
DEMOGRAPHICS PARTY REGISTRATION: Democrat 256 (41%) Republican 243 (39%) Independent or Other 126 (20%) AGE: RACE/ETHNICITY: 18-34 102 (16%) 35-49 153 (24%) 50-64 187 (30%) 65+ 179 (29%) Refused 4 (1%) White/Caucasian 414 (66%) Black/African American 85 (14%) Hispanic or Cuban 107 (17%) Other 12 (2%) Refused 7 (1%) SEX: Male 293 (47%) Female 332 (53%) REGION: North Florida 135 (22%) Central Florida 120 (19%) Tampa Bay 115 (18%) Southwest Florida 75 (12%) Southeast Florida 180 (29%) 7
FLORIDA POLL REGIONS NORTH FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St, Johns, Flagler, Union, Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties. CENTRAL FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Citrus, Sumter, Volusia, and Indian River counties. TAMPA BAY: Voters interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Polk counties. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties. SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. 8