Tourism and employment in Asia: Challenges and opportunities in the context of the economic crisis Guy Thijs Deputy Regional Director ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Decent Work for All ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 26-215 1 Overview The employment potential of tourism in Asia The economic impact of the global crisis in Asia and the Pacific on employment in the Tourism industry Challenges and opportunities in tourism 2
Travel & tourism is critical for growth 14 12 1 8 Share of travel & tourism contribution to total GDP, direct & indirect impact (%), 2 & 27 9.8 1. 9.2 9.1 12.9 11.8 11.4 1.4 2 27 6 4 2 5.3 6.1 Asia Northeast Asia Oceania Southeast Asia South Asia Source: World Travel & Tourism Council. 3 Travel & tourism is critical for growth 25 2 2 27 Share of travel & tourism contribution to total GDP, direct & indirect impact (%), 2 & 27 15 1 5 Bangladesh India Pakistan Myanmar Nepal Indonesia Sri Lanka Philippines Lao PDR Viet Nam Thailand Cambodia Source: World Travel & Tourism Council. 4
Travel & tourism: the employment multiplier effect Crafts Entertainment Construction Agriculture Infrastructure: Electricity grid Telecommunications Roads Bridges Waterways Utilities: Internet Phone, etc. Tourism Transport: Moto Cab Bus Boat Plane Furniture Manufacturing Fishing Food processing Source: ILO: Sectoral Activities Working Paper on reducing poverty through tourism (28). 5 Decent work in Tourism Need to address: Workplace problems including: wages, remuneration, flexibility, working hours ; Implementation of the ILO Core Labour Standards and tourism standards at the workplace level; Learning to use, mechanisms and value of social dialogue at sectoral, local and enterprise level; On the job vocational training, qualification and certification; Dealing with issues at the workplace: stress, violation, harassment, safety and health, gender, discrimination, HIV/AIDS etc. 6
Economic situation rapidly deteriorating 14 12 13. Real GDP growth rates, 27, 28 & 29 (forecast) 27 28 29 1 8 6 4 9. 6.7 9.3 7.3 5.1 5.6 6.3 5.4 1.6 7.8 5.5 2 2 4 2.4.3 2.6 China India Japan NIAEs ASEAN 5 Developing Asia 2.1 3.9 2.7 Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook Update (Jan 29). 7 Labour market impacts As economic growth in Asia contracts Demand for labour has fallen Large scale job losses in some sectors Rising unemployment & underemployment Downward pressure on wages SMEs have been hit hard Informal economy has expanded Reverse migration has increased Industrial disputes on the rise 8
Crisis is impacting the poor in Asia Decelerating Growth China, P.R. Iran Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand High exposure Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia India Indonesia Lao PDR Myanmar Mongolia Pakistan Philippines Timor Leste Viet Nam High poverty Nepal Papua New Guinea Source: World Bank: The Global Economic Crisis: Assessing Vulnerability with a Poverty Lens (29). 9 Unemployment increasing Unemployment rate (per cent) 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4.6 4.8 High estimate (5.9%) Low estimate (5.1%) 27 28 29 Low estimate: 7.2 million additional unemployed High estimate: 23.3 million additional unemployed Source: ILO: Trends Econometric Models (Dec 28). 1
Cambodia: Crisis is impacting growth GDP growth in 29 forecast to fall to 5.1 per cent Key vulnerable sectors include garment and textile exports, construction and tourism Small and medium sized enterprises employ 85 per cent of workers but face tight credit market Contracting FDI will hurt construction of tourism centers, hotels and infrastructure 11 Cambodia: Slowdown in tourism sector 4 35 Growth in tourism receipts (USD million) Growth in tourism receipts (%) 4 35 3 33.5 3 25 26.1 25 2 2 15 1 15.7 15 1 5 5.5 5 26 27 28e 29p 12 Source: Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on Cambodia: A Rapid Assessment (ILO,29).
Cambodia: Impact on workers in tourism jobs Slowdown in growth of international tourism since mid 28 Hotels and guesthouses employ nearly 5, workers but face 3 8 per cent fewer bookings More than 3, trained tour guides (17 per cent female) must cope with fewer customers Restaurant and recreation industry employ approximately 25, workers but confront declining demand Nearly 14, three wheel drivers have seen earnings decline 6 87 per cent Many workers are self employed in the informal economy and face rising underemployment and falling wages Some retrenched workers have returned to agricultural 13 Crisis presents challenges & opportunities Develop transportation and tourism infrastructure, supporting sustainable and local development Promote domestic tourism Promote related green jobs Enhance labour market statistics and information base on tourism Strengthen sector based social dialogue 14
Local Economic Development and Tourism Local Economic Development LED can serve as a powerful alternative development approach in tourism development. LED can empower communities and maximize their economic potential. LED responds to the financial crisis by creating a new dynamism at the local level, in particular for returnees who have lost their jobs overseas. The ILO supports such communities in the scope of its LED interventions in Indonesia. 15 ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 26-215 Decent Work for All Thank you ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific www.ilo.org/asia 16