February 28, 2017 Immigration Trends in Europe and the US Pia Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas James Hollifield, SMU Tower Center Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the presenters and do not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Illegal border crossings into EU Millions 2.0 spike in 2015 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Refused entry Detected Source: Number of non EU citizens refused entry from Eurostat (migr_eirfs); number of illegal border crossings detected from Frontex Annual Risk Analysis reports (various years).
Asylum applications in the EU rise dramatically Millions 1.4 European Union (28 countries) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Eurostat (migr_asyappctza). Data are for first time applicants.
Many unauthorized immigrants in EU from Syria, Afghanistan Millions of migrants by country of origin, 2008 2015 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source: Eurostat (migr_eipre).
Unauthorized immigrants concentrated in large economies, southern member states National shares of migrants found to be illegally present, 2008 2015 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Eurostat (migr_eipre).
EU asylum applicants concentrated in Germany; Sweden third Share of EU asylum applicants during 2008 2015 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Eurostat (migr_asyappctza).
Sweden leads in applicants per capita Number of asylum applicants per capita during 2008 2015 0.050 0.045 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.000 Source: Eurostat (migr_asyappctza).
Millions 1.6 Immigration into U.S. by visa type 1.2 0.8 Lawful permanent residents Temporary workers 0.4 Student visas Humanitarian visas 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 NOTE: Fiscal years. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Millions 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 U.S. unauthorized immigrant population down from peak 12.2 11.1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Pew Hispanic Research Center.
Millions 2.0 US border apprehensions of illegal crossers have declined sharply 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 Total 0.0 Mexicans 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 NOTE: Fiscal years. SOURCE: U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Refugee arrivals in U.S. low, stable Thousands 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 NOTE: Fiscal years. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Refugee arrivals to U.S. Thousands 20 by country of origin 15 10 5 0 NOTE: Data are for 2015. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Asylum applications in U.S. on the rise Thousands 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NOTE: Fiscal years. SOURCE: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Individuals granted asylum in U.S. Thousands 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 NOTE: Fiscal years. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Individuals granted asylum in U.S. by Thousands Thousands 7 6 5 country of origin 4 3 2 1 0 NOTE: Data are for 2015. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Migration politics is a four sided, two level game Security Markets Rights Culture
The Liberal Paradox and the dilemmas of migration control The Economic Logic is one of openness free trade (Rosecrance). But the Political Logic is one of closure citizenship and nationality (Walzer). This is a paradox liberal states, like the U.S., must be simultaneously open and closed (Hollifield, 1992)
Security Concerns & Cultural Backlash Paris attacks and heightened security concerns, ISIS and home grown jihadis Revolt of East Europeans (the Visegrad group) Viktor Orban accuses Merkel of moral imperialism Cologne attacks and rejection of Muslim refugees Trump and the US presidential campaign, the politicization of refugee policy Security and culture trump rights and markets End of the liberal interregnum?
A Multi dimensional Crisis Humanitarian disaster, originating in the Middle East, but also South Asia and Africa Moral and legal crisis, 1948 Declaration of Human Rights, 1951 Refugee Convention Moral crisis comes with moral hazard Policy and political crisis, collapse of Dublin regime, threat to Schengen, free movement, and to the EU itself?
Historical Analogies? Aftermath of World Wars I & II 12 million Germans flee to the west (Vertribene) Crises of decolonization, partition of India Expulsion/flight of the Palestinians Collapse of South Vietnam Mariel boatlift and Haitian exodus End of cold war and the Balkan wars Central American children
The greatest disaster is forgetting but moral hazard looms
Search for a European Policy Respecting non refoulement, designating safe countries The end of the Dublin regime Distinguishing between political and economic migrants Controlling borders without abandoning Schengen Frontex is inadequate, need for a new approach to external borders Need for a common asylum policy, Merkel s good cop, bad cop Quota system based on each state s capacity Estimated cost: 10K/refugee/year: reception, processing and resettlement (repatriation?)
Long term Policy Issues Integration of refugees, back to markets and rights Silver lining Europe needs people, talent, workers because of demographic decline But, political and culture backlash, continued rise of right wing, populist, xenophobic movements Undermining Schengen, free movement, and ultimately the EU itself Search for a common foreign and security policy (CFSP), a key pillar of European integration, along with EMU and JHA
Regional Responses Helping the front line states, Turkey (2 million), Lebanon (1/4 people are refugees), Jordan (750K) Seeking a political settlement to the Syrian civil war easier said than done Dealing with failed states in East and Sub Saharan Africa, and South Asia Where are the Gulf States? Not signatories to refugee convention Why not keep the refugees bottled up in the region? Fertile recruiting grounds for ISIS. How to force people to go where they do not want to?
Backup slides
Refugees by Country of Residence Millions 3 2 1 0 NOTE: Data are for 2015. SOURCE: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
From UN Refugee Agency s 2015 Global Trends publicationnumber of refugees and asylum seekers