Myanmar Political Aspirations 2015 Asian Barometer Survey PRESENTATION FOR FEEDBACK FOR FINAL REPORT AUGUST 2015
Introduction to Asian Barometer Survey About ABS Consortium of Academics from East Asia and the United States based in National Taiwan University. Affiliated with the Global Barometer Survey. Surveys in East Asia began in 2001. Now on 4 th wave of comparative survey research Focus is on the study of democracy, with attention to political culture, governance and political behavior Project provides open access to data for research and time-line series.
Introduction to 2015 Myanmar ABS Local partner Yangon School of Political Science. Independent research team. Focus on research and capacity-building. Project started from May 2014 through March 2015. Preliminary findings presented to stakeholders in June and for public feedback in August. Final reports will be published by December 2015. National survey project funded by Taiwan Foundation for Democracy and the National Endowment for Democracy Three aims: 1) Understand public views of politics; 2) Encourage capacity-building for survey research and understanding of survey research and 3) Include Myanmar in cross-national comparative research.
Interpreting Surveys Cautions Cautions for over-interpreting specific numbers; important to look at trends and relationships Importance of context for survey interpretations Surveys offer insights, but there are limits on explanations. Surveys are one of many tools to promote understanding. Role of reserve in responding to questions Role of translation and understanding of political concepts Survey research in Myanmar is a learning process
Sampling and Questionnaire Multi-stage random sampling. National level 36 townships, Each township 3 villages/wards, Each village/ward 15 respondents selected through landmark sampling Sampling data from Ministry of Immigration and Population and GAD at the village/ward levels. Questionnaire over 200 questions in face-toface interviews. Core ABS questionnaire with some Myanmar-specific questions Translation in Myanmar with local interpreters for ethnic minority areas Details available in technical report.
Fieldwork Experience YSPS local implementing organization. Led by research team. Four teams of trained interviewers sent to north, central and southern Myanmar. One team comprised only of ethnic minorities. Special team also sent to Rakhine Fieldwork January 5-March 19 th All states and regions included in the ABS survey Refusal rate low 13%, high participation Assistance from authorities at national, state and local levels. Independent administration
About the Respondents Gender 10 8 6 4 92% Religious Distribution 3% 1% 1% 1% 50-59, 19% Above 60, 8% Age Female, 53% Below 30, 25% Male, 47% 40-49, 21% 30-39, 27%
Socio-Economic Distribution Education Levels Income Levels Post-graduate degree University education completed 2% 8% 6 5 49% Some university education Complete secondary/high Incomplete secondary/high 4% 1 22% 4 3 29% Complete secondary/high 1% Incomplete secondary/high 11% Complete primary/elementary Incomplete primary/elementary 11% No formal education 1 5% 1 15% 25% 1 17% Below 60000 kyats 60000-100000 100000-500000 4% 500000-1000000 2% 1000000 kyats and above
Ethnic Distribution Ethnic diversity, but not all groups included. National not ethnic sample Bamar Regions vs. Minority States Ethnic Minority States, 25% Bamar Regions, 75% Others Kokant Kachin Maw Shan Pa-O Shan Chin Kayin Rakhine Bamar Ethnic Distribution 7% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 6% 74% 4 6 8
Overview of Findings Session 1 A. Economic Conditions B. Social Capital C. Political Identity Religion and Ethnicity D. Political Culture E. Democracy Session 2 F. Political Engagement G. Elections H. Institutional Trust & Systemic Support I. Government Performance and Governance
A. Economic Conditions 10 8 Perceptions of Economic Conditions 78% 6 4 53% 46% 28% 32% 19% 22% 17% Past Present Future 5% Better Same Worse Current conditions more difficult than past; Optimism for the future
Prices and Income Distribution 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 Perception of Prices 81% 81% 81% 12% 12% 11% 7% 7% 8% Total Rural Urban Stable Same Not stable 6 5 4 3 1 Perception of Income Distribution 2% 19% 49% 29% Very fair Fair Unfair Very unfair Majority see prices as unstable and unfair income distribution
B. Social Capital 10 How Many Join Organizations Cross-National Comparison 94% 8 6 4 61% 73% 34% 51% 39% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Myanmar has a robust civil society
Joining Organizations Joining Organizations by Types Political parties Public interest groups 8% 8% Residential & community associations Others 17% 18% Charities 22% Religious groups 26% 5% 1 15% 25% 3 Traditional organizations in religion, charities and residential/community high membership Political parties less membership, but overall considerable civil society engagement
Social Networks 4 35% 3 25% 15% 1 5% Social Networks 37% 37% 37% 37% 36% 37% 16% 16% 15% 1 9% Total Rural Urban Nobody A few Some A lot Rich social ties and networks, with minimal difference by locality 11%
Low levels of social trust among Myanmar Social Trust 6 5 4 3 1 19% 51% Social Trust Cross-National Comparison 7% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia 34% 27% 12%
C. Political Identity: Role of Religion 8 7 6 5 4 3 Consult Religious Authority 69% 5 4 3 1 27% 46% Religiosity 9% 7% 1% 5% 4% 1% 14% 16% 1 Agree Disagree No answer Religion prominent in political and social life
Religion and Politics Greater Religious Freedom Equal Treatment of Religious Groups 10 8 6 4 86% 88% 65% 35% 7 6 5 4 3 64% 66% 36% 34% 56% 44% 14% 12% 1 Total Buddhists Other religions Total Buddhists Other religions Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Positive views of religious freedom and treatment, except by religious minorities
Citizenship and Religion 7 6 5 4 3 1 Citizenship Based on Religion 61% 64% 33% 38% 12% 7% 1 6% 14% 14% Total Buddhists Other religions Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Close tie between religion and citizenship perceived, but less so among religious minorities
Self-Identity 6 5 4 3 1 Self-Identification 53% 54% 57% 43% 32% 32% 36% 35% 33% 32% 28% 25% 15% 14% 11% Total Buddhists Other religions Bamar Ethnic minorities Your religion Your ethnic community Your nation Religion is dominant form of self-identity given priority by individuals
Ethnicity and Politics 10 8 6 4 Seriousness of Ethnic Conflict 71% 67% 83% 21% 26% 7% 7% 8% 8% Total Bamar Ethnic minorities 7 6 5 4 3 1 Equal Treatment of Ethnic Minorities 55% 62% 33% 24% 12% 15% 35% 59% 6% Total Bamar Ethnic minorities Serious Not serious No answer Agree Disagree No answer Ethnic conflict seen as serious by all, with treatment of ethnic minorities of concern
Autonomy and Federalism 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 58% Greater Autonomy to Ethnic Nationalities 52% 21% 23% 25% 75% 16% 9% Total Bamar Ethnic minorities 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 51% Strengthen Federal System 29% 45% 35% 67% 19% 18% 14% Total Bamar Ethnic minorities Agree Disagree No answer Agree Disagree No answer Broad support for greater autonomy and strengthening federalism
Devolution of Political Power Regional Legislatures Choosing Chief Ministers Peace Process Protects Rights of Minorities 10 8 6 4 64% 6 77% 24% 28% 12% 12% 11% 13% 6 5 4 3 1 54% 54% 55% 23% 23% 26% 3 15% Total Bamar Ethnic minorities Total Bamar Ethnic minorities Agree Disagree No answer Agree Disagree No answer Support for devolution of political power and the peace process
Traditional Political Culture 6 5 4 3 57% Anti-Pluralism 38% 4 35% 3 25% Political Hierarchy 35% 35% 18% 1 Strongly agree Somewhat agree 3% 2% Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 15% 1 5% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 11% Strongly disagree Conservative political culture along multiple trajectories
Women and Politics 7 6 5 4 3 1 Prefer Choice of Boy over Girl Cross-National Comparison 6 27% 4 33% 31% 3 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 58% 42% Total Women in Politics 76% 24% Aung San Suu Kyi as president 55% 45% Thein Sein as president Agree Disagree High discrimination toward women, although less so in politics, especially among Daw ASSK supporters
Traditional Values 2.6 Traditionalism Cross-National Comparison Traditional values 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia 1.4 Myanmar most political conservative traditional values in East Asia
E. Democracy: Support for Democracy 10 8 6 4 74% 73% 75% 79% 17% 9% 2% 23% Support for Democracy Cross-National Comparison 15% 2% 88% 93% 8% 12% 3% 8% 4% 1% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Agree Disagree No answer High support for democracy on par with other East Asian countries
Preference for Democracy Cambodia 13% 57% 3 Thailand 7% 16% Indonesia 18% 13% Philippines 56% 22% 22% Vietnam 6% 6% Myanmar 4% 24% Myanmar among highest preference for democracy and least support for authoritarian alternative Preference for Democracy Cross-National Comparison 7 72% 77% 89% 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Democracy is always preferable to any other kind of government Under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one For people like me, it does not matter whether we have a democratic or a nondemocratic regime
Democratic Alternatives Economy vs. Democracy 6 5 4 3 53% 3 42% 39% 18% 19% 1 Economic development versus Democracy Economic equality versus Freedom Economy more important Democracy more important Both equally important Economy more of a priority than democracy; equality on par with democracy
Understanding of Democracy 4 3 1 28% 26% 21% 22% 23% 24% 24% 37% 36% 19% 6% 36% Understanding of Democracy Cross-National Comparison Procedures Freedom Equality Good Governance 29% 21% 15% 13% 3 36% 33% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia 29% 22% 25% 24% Myanmar have complex varied understanding of democracy
Levels of Democracy Perceived Levels of Democracy 4 35% 35% 3 25% 23% 22% 15% 15% 1 5% 5% A full democracy A democracy, but with minor problems A democracy, with mjor problems Not a democracy No answer Democracy in Myanmar seen to have problems
Democratic Change 6 Levels of Democracy Than Shwe vs. Thein Sein 5 4 3 1 Undemocratic Democratic No answer Thein Sein Than Shwe Democratic change perceived with the change of leadership
Democracy and the Future Levels of Democracy in the Future After 2015 election Ten years future 45% 4 35% 3 25% 15% 1 5% Undemocratic Democratic No answer Positive outlook for democracy in the future
Democratic Space 78% 76% 74% 72% 7 68% 66% 64% 62% Political Freedoms Converse over Political Issues 76% 6 5 5 51% 49% 4 37% 37% 37% 3 67% 12% 12% 14% 1 Total Rural Urban Expression Assembly Hard Not hard No answer Expansion of freedoms perceived, but still some difficulties in democratic space
Fear and Surveys 35% 3 25% Measurement of Fear 23% 33% 33% 15% 1 5% 2% 1 Completely afraid......... Completely not afraid Limited fear noted in the conduct of the ABS
F. Political Engagement Political Interest Political Interest by Gender 6 5 4 3 54% 54% 56% 46% 46% 44% 6 4 5 47% 34% 23% 7% 9% 1 Male Female 1 Total Rural Urban Interested Not Interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested Not at all interested Moderate political interest, with less female interest in politics compared to men
Follow Political News Follow Political News Follow Political News 10 8 6 4 8 85% 7 3 15% Total Rural Urban Follow news frequently Follow news less frequently 10 8 6 4 54% 46% Total Interested 33% 8% Follow news frequently 67% 92% Follow news less frequently Not Interested Low numbers follow the news, especially in rural areas
Political Efficacy 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 Political Efficacy Cross-National Comparison 47% 58% 43% 31% 7 69% 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 Political Efficacy by Gender 73% 72% 16% 11% 13% 14% Male Female Agree Disagree No answer Myanmar among the lowest in political efficacy, with no meaningful gender differences
Local Political Participation Participate Locally 4 3 34% 35% 36% 33% 34% 25% 24% 32% 28% 1 6% 6% 5% Total Rural Urban More than once Once I have not done this, but I might do it I have not done this and I would not do it Highest political participation at the local level, with local problem solving
G. Electoral Process Elections Free and Fair 2010 2015 4 35% 3 25% 15% 1 5% 28% 33% Completely free and fair 22% 24% Free and fair, but with minor problems 5% Free and fair, with major problems 12% 5% 4% Not free and fair 33% 33% No answer Differing views of the electoral process, but many do not answer
Trust in UEC 10 8 6 4 36% 32% 33% 78% Trust in the Election Commission Cross-National Comparison 54% 45% 63% 62% 82% 26% 25% 17% 9% 13% 2% 1 14% 2% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Trust Distrust No answer Comparatively low trust in the Myanmar Election Commission
Future Vote Choice 6 4 5 24% 26% 15% 17% 5% 7% 3% 1% 54% 17% 9% 1 25% Total Bamar Regions Ethnic Minority States National League for Democracy National Unity Party Future Vote Choice Union Solidarity and Development Party Others No answer Most voters express reserve in answering vote choice NLD highest support, but differences Bamar and Ethnic minority areas 39%
Reserve in Expressing Vote Choice 4 3 1 36% No Answer for Vote Choice Cross-National Comparison 6% 17% Myanmar Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia 21% 5% Myanmar highest reserve in expressing vote choice
Preferred President Preferred President 6 5 4 3 1 54% 55% 52% 26% 26% 25% 16% 17% 15% 3% 2% 7% Total Bamar Regions Ethnic Minority States U Thein Sein Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Others No answer Majority reserve in giving preference for president; Those that do prefer Daw ASSK
Party Identity 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 Party Identity 72% 62% 59% 19% 22% 14% 16% 8% 11% 1 4% 3% Total Bamar Regions Ethnic Minority States Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) National League for Democracy ( NLD ) Other parties No affiliation Party Identity of USDP and NLD less in minority areas. More reserve in expressing party identity in ethnic states
Partisanship 10 8 6 4 Partisanship 74% 78% 71% 26% 29% 22% Total NLD USDP Very close Less close Parallel levels of partisanship of two dominant national parties
Police Courts Election Commission Parliament Political parties Civil Service Newspaper State/Regional governments National government Television Local government NGOs The military President 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 13% 23% 26% 3 Institutional Trust 36% 36% 35% 38% 37% 37% 38% 39% 39% 4 42% Low levels of high trust, moderate levels of some trust Variation across institutions 5% 1 15% 25% 3 35% 4 45% Quite a lot of trust A great deal of trust
Trust in Executive and Parliament Trust in the Executive Cross-National Comparison Trust in the Parliament Cross-National Comparison 10 8 6 4 53% 35% 71% 6 84% 10 8 6 4 43% 87% 43% 51% 47% 77% Myanmar moderate levels of trust of institutions comparatively
Judiciary 10 8 6 4 Trust in the Courts Cross-National Comparison 32% 78% 45% 51% 61% 62% 5 4 3 Having Judiciary Check on Leaders? 47% 31% 22% 1 Low trust in courts and judiciary Agree Disagree No answer
Police Trust in the Police Cross-National Comparison 10 8 6 87% 56% 64% 59% 73% 4 28% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Lowest support of police cross-nationally
Military 10 8 6 4 Trust in the Military Cross-National Comparison 94% 58% 46% 84% 71% 89% 6 5 4 3 1 Military Involvement in Politics and Economy 39% 4 Politics 51% 29% 21% Economy Agree Disagree No answer Low level of support for military comparatively. Less support for military involvement in economy
Constitutional Change 7 6 5 4 3 1 Constitutional Threshold Changed 57% 37% 5% 6 5 4 3 1 Removal of 59(f) 36% 7% 57% Agree Disagree No answer Agree Disagree No answer Majority reserved on constitutional reform, but those that answer favor it
I. Systemic Support 6 4 Systemic Support Rural-Urban Comparison 39% 39% 38% 25% 18% 24% 28% 15% 14% 13% 16% 3% 2% 5% Total Rural Urban It works fine, not need to change Needs major change No answer Needs minor change Should be replaced Majority believe system needs change of some sort
System and Problem Solving System Capable of Solving Problems Cross-National Comparison 10 8 87% 73% 7 79% 83% 6 57% 4 3 26% 19% 13% 11% 13% 16% 11% 8% 2% 1% 2% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Agree Disagree No answer Myanmar lowest level confidence system capable solving problems
I. Government Performance 10 8 6 4 34% 49% 17% 78% 13% 8% Responsiveness of Government Cross-National Comparison 55% 54% 55% 44% 41% 4 54% 46% 1% 5% 4% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Responsive Not responsive No answer Even lower levels comparatively believe government responsive
U Thein Sein Performance 6 U Thein Sein Performance 56% 5 4 3 1 24% 13% 7% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Majority express some satisfaction with U Thein Sein s performance
People Have Basic Needs 10 8 92% People Have Basic Needs Cross-National Comparison 74% 8 94% 89% 6 56% 4 Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Majority believe people have basic needs, but lowest in region
Equality and Government 7 6 5 4 3 1 Equal Treatment by the Government 51% 49% Equal treatment between rich and poor Agree 41% 59% Equal opportunity to do business Disagree 7 6 5 4 3 1 Equal Treatment by Gender 49% 51% 53% 47% 6 58% 4 42% Male Female Male Female Equal treatment between rich and poor Agree Equal opportunity to do business Disagree Myanmar divided on treatment with less positive views of business opportunities, especially by women
Serious Policy Problem Most Serious Problem No problem 5% Governance 15% Health 1 Government services 14% Infrastructure 5% 6 5 4 3 1 Seriousness of Land Grabbing 54% 21% 16% 8% Food/Agriculture 6% Economy 45% 1 3 4 5 Economy seen as most serious policy problem. Land grabbing specifically seen as serious.
Easy Access to Services 10 8 6 4 64% 84% 82% 63% 88% 75% 25% 76% 67% 53% Easy Access to Services Cross-National Comparison 72% 71% 84% 5 52% 55% 8 84% 85% 89% Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Identity document Public school Medical treatment Police 62% 89% 56% 47% Positive assessments of services, but lower levels than other countries
Access to Services by Place 10 8 6 4 Easy Access to Services Rural-Urban Comparison 85% 82% 88% 74% 66% 68% 61% Rural Identity document Medical treatment Transportation 25% 24% Public school Police Urban 89% 10 8 6 4 18% Access to Internet 82% 12% 88% 31% 69% Total Rural Urban Better access for services in urban areas. Expanding internet access Yes No
Perceived Corruption and Abuse by Officials 5 4 3 1 Corruption in the Government 46% 36% 37% 32% 27% 22% 35% 3 25% 15% 1 5% 6% Abuse of Power 26% 23% 13% 33% Local government National government Corrupt Not Corrupt No answer Negative perceptions of abuse by officials, with lower corruption levels
Conclusions Rich and varied findings on political attitudes and behavior, but these raise questions for further research Conflicting trends for democracy and governance, but frank assessments by public Myanmar public has important political voice and survey research promotes understanding, but it is only first step Thank you for your time and we welcome your feedback and questions