The Great Immigration Turnaround

The Great Immigration Turnaround New Facts and Old Rhetoric Dowell Myers USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

Overview Where is immigration growing fastest? Divided opinion and fears about immigration The turnaround between Old and New outlooks on immigration Examining the Four Myths Rediscovering intergenerational connection

Divided Opinion Old and New Stories About Immigration

Are Immigrants a Burden or a Benefit? Percent of Calif. White Voters Who Believe Immigrants are a Burden 1998 2004 Change Liberals 40 29-11 Conservatives 54 64 +10 Gap (L-C) -14-35 +21 Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 7 & Table B.3; PPIC Statewide Survey

Four Myths About Immigration Recognizing the New Trends 1. The number of immigrants is accelerating out of control 2. Immigrants are all newcomers 3. Immigrants are like Peter Pan, never changing over time no matter how long in America 4. Immigrants are an unwanted burden, especially given our fiscal crisis

1. Is immigration accelerating out of control?

Record High Immigration but slowing drastically Total foreign-born = 39.9 million 1990s 2000s 57.4% growth (11.3 million) 28.8% growth ( 8.8 million) NOT evenly spread across the nation

California Washington Arizona Colorado Nevada Oregon Utah Hawaii New Mexico Idaho Alaska Wyoming Montana Illinois Michigan Ohio Minnesota Indiana Missouri Wisconsin Kansas Iowa Nebraska South Dakota North Dakota Texas Florida Georgia Virginia Maryland North Carolina Tennessee Alabama South Carolina Louisiana Oklahoma Kentucky Arkansas Mississippi District of Delaware West Virginia New York New Jersey Massachusetts Pennsylvania Connecticut Rhode Island New Hampshire Maine Vermont Share of National Arrivals During Last 5 Years, 2010 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 WEST MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST

California Nevada Hawaii Arizona Washington New Mexico Colorado Oregon Utah Alaska Idaho Wyoming Montana Illinois Minnesota Kansas Nebraska Michigan Indiana Iowa Wisconsin Ohio South Dakota North Dakota Florida Texas Maryland Virginia Georgia Delaware North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Arkansas Missouri Louisiana Alabama Kentucky Mississippi West Virginia New York New Jersey Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Pennsylvania New Hampshire Vermont Maine Foreign Born % of State Population in 2010 By Decade of Arrival 30 25 20 15 10 5 WEST MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST 0 Arrivals Before 1980 1980s Arrivals 1990s Arrivals 2000s Arrivals

Growth of Immigrants in Old Gateways Percentage Increase in Annual Arrivals Since 1980 200 180 160 140 Texas 120 100 80 60 40 U.S. New York 20 California 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Growth of Immigrants New Destinations Percentage Increase in Annual Arrivals Since 1980 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 No. Carolina Georgia Alabama So. Carolina Arizona Florida U.S. 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

2. Are all immigrants newcomers?

Foreign Born Population by Duration Since Entry to U.S 1970-2010, and Projected to 2040 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20+ years 10-20 years <10 years Pitkin-Myers 2011 Generational Projections 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Percent Newcomers of Latino Immigrants

6 5 Helping Hands Ratio of Long-Settled to New California Mexico 6 5 4 3 Korea 6 5 4 3 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Vietnam 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 China 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010

Retaining Homegrown State Residents The 10 Most Attractive States 1 Texas 75.1 2 North Carolina 70.7 3 Georgia 69.0 4 Wisconsin 67.2 5 California 66.9 6 Tennessee 66.0 7 Michigan 65.8 8 Minnesota 65.4 9 Utah 64.9 10 South Carolina 64.6

3. Are immigrants like Peter Pan?

Rising Immigrant Status with Longer Residence Attainment for 1985-1989 Immigrant Arrival Cohort 70% 60% 50% Better Income Homeownership Citizenship 40% 30% 20% Profession BA Completion 10% Myers & Pitkin, 0% 1990 2000 2008

English Proficiency By Age at Arrival in the 1985-89 Immigrant Wave 100% 90% 80% Age 0-9 Age 10-19 70% 60% Age 20+ 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 2000 2008 Source: U.S. Census, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey, 2008.

Soaring Immigrant Homeownership For Each Immigrant Wave Arriving Before 1970, 80, 90, 2000 0.8 0.7 All Native-born 0.6 All Foreign-born 0.5 1960s Arrivals 0.4 0.3 1970s Arrivals 0.2 1980s Arrivals 0.1 0 70 80 90 00 United States 1990s Arrivals Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research, September 2005

Change in Homeownership For Successive Waves of Immigrants Arriving Before 1970, 80, 90, or 2000 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 70 80 90 00 CA 0 70 80 90 00 NY 0 70 80 90 00 TX 0 70 80 90 00 FL 0 70 80 90 00 IL Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research, September 2005

Percent Newcomers of Latino Immigrants

% Settled Immigrants Home Ownership Rate of Latino Immigrants is Higher in States with Higher Shares of Settled Immigrants 100 80 60 VT ME AK NY GA CA TX AZ UT r = 0.45 40 SC 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 % Homeowners

Samuel Huntington s Great Peter Pan Error

Huntington s Thesis From Who Are We: The Challenges to America s National Identity Fear of cultural bifurcation Due to growing use of Spanish California is epicenter New immigrants arriving faster than assimilation

Huntington s Thesis From Who Are We: The Challenges to America s National Identity For assimilation, Huntington prefers use of English instead of Spanish He views rising Spanish use as anti-assimilation and a cultural threat to America

Percent of California Population that is Latino 2000 2030 Ratio Total 32.6 46.8 1.44 Age Group 25-34 39.3 51.3 1.31

We can improve on the naïve expectation if we have two pieces of information: 1. A profile of language preference by length of US residence, not just Latino ethnic membership 2. A projection of population by length of residence, not just Latino ethnic membership

Percent Spanish Users by Immigrant Generation For Latinos in the U.S., 2002 Source: Pew Hispanic Center

Population Composition by Years in U.S. & Generation For Latinos Age 25-34 in California 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16.0 17.9 8.8 29.2 28.2 Pitkin & Myers '10 CDF 9-7 26.9 39.9 7.3 12.0 13.9 2000 2030 3rd Gen 2nd Gen 20+ Yrs 10-19 Yrs 0-9 Yrs

Percent Spanish Users Among Total Age 25-34 40% 35% 30% 25% Rhetoric Huntington Reasoning? 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2030 Myers Pitkin & Myers '10 CDF 9-7

How Likely is Samuel Huntington s Vision of the Future America Divided along Language Lines? not

4. Are immigrants needed?

Opposing Forces on Immigration Strict enforcement Immigrant rights Are immigrants wanted & needed?

Baby Boomer Tsunami The Soaring Ratio of Seniors to Working Age 65+ per 100 ages 25 to 64 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 U.S. California +70% In California 2010-2030 0 Myers 2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: Calif. Department of Finance, Census Bureau, and Authors calculations, 2010.

The Trigger of Many Crises Social Security Crisis Medicare/Health Insurance Crisis Workforce Replacement Crisis Taxpayer Replacement Crisis The Home Seller Crisis

Likely Responses Reduced growth in GDP Delayed retirement by seniors Reduced or delayed senior benefits Higher taxes Greater reliance on immigrant workers Rediscovery of neglected minority youth

Can Immigration Help? The Strict Enforcement Narrative: Not at all Cannot reverse aging Immigrants get older too The Rights Narrative: It shouldn t matter The Our Needs Narrative: Yes, one-quarter to half Next 20 years are the most crucial Compared to 0 immigration, the current volume reduces the rise in the senior ratio by 29% in 20 years and 47% in 40 years Passel and Cohn (2008: Table 3a, Figure 26), Pew Research Center

Conclusions

Conclusions about the Myths: Are Immigrants 1. Accelerating out of control? 2. Just all newcomers? 3. Frozen like Peter Pan? 4. Not needed? 1. Level, steady state or even declining 2. More long-settled 3. Rising achievements and assimilating 4. Future workers & taxpayers Essential to balance the rising senior ratio

Rediscovering The Generational Partnership Children $$ educational investments Seniors $$ health care home sales pensions the cycle of roles Adults $$ new workers new homebuyers new taxpayers Mature Adults $$ Prime working age Strong support for children & seniors

Thank You Dowell Myers <dowell@usc.edu> For more information search for popdynamics

Publications Referenced in this Presentation Myers, Dowell, Janna Goldberg, Sarah Mawhorter, and Seong Hee Min, Immigration and the New Maturity of Los Angeles, pp. 12-27 in Ali Modarres, ed., Los Angeles 2010: State of the City, Pat Brown Institute, California State University, Los Angeles, 2010. Myers, Dowell and John Pitkin, Assimilation Today: New Evidence Shows the Latest Immigrants to America are Following in Our History s Footsteps, Center for American Progress, Washington, D.C., September 2010. Myers, Dowell, Benefits for California and Its Growing Number of Seniors of Expanded Access to Higher Education, written testimony before the Joint Committee on the Master Plan for Higher Education, California State Legislature, February 2, 2010. Myers, Dowell, John Pitkin, and Ricardo Ramirez, The New Homegrown Majority in California: Recognizing the New Reality of Growing Commitment to the Golden State, Special Report, Population Dynamics Research Group, April 2009. Myers, Dowell and SungHo Ryu, Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition, Journal of the American Planning Association 74, 1 (Winter 2008): 17-33. (Winner of 2008 Award for Best Article in the Journal.) Myers, Dowell, Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2007. Myers, Dowell and Cathy Yang Liu. The Emerging Dominance of Immigrants in the US Housing Market 1970-2000, Urban Policy and Research 23, 3 (2005): 347-65. NOTE: most publications are available at http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/research/popdynamics/